Thursday, March23, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Wood Lake, NE

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:37AMSunset 8:00PM Thursday March 23, 2017 11:20 AM CDT (16:20 UTC) Moonrise 4:05AMMoonset 2:18PM Illumination 16% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wood Lake, NE
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location: 42.73, -100.36     debug

Area Discussion for - North Platte, NE
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Fxus63 klbf 231216
area forecast discussion
national weather service north platte ne
716 am cdt Thu mar 23 2017

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 332 am cdt Thu mar 23 2017
multiple sensible weather concerns in the short term period. The
main focus this package is directed towards strong-severe
thunderstorm chances. Severe hail and severe wind gusts are the
primary threats for any severe thunderstorms. Otherwise,
unseasonably warm temperatures will prevail today, about 16-26
degrees above normal (warmest south of i-80), under warm southerly

Amplified flow exists in the large scale pattern at the present time
with a mid-level trough currently extending from the pacific
northwest to california and a ridge over the lower southern plains
into the upper mississippi valley. The mid-level trough will advance
eastward to the northern high plains-four corners region over the
next 12 hours. A closed 500 hpa low will develop this evening and
move into far eastern co/western ks by early Friday morning.

Deterministic guidance are in fair agreement with the evolution of
the 500 hpa pattern with the primary short wave trough forecast to
track into the high plains mid-late afternoon. This shortwave trough
will help prime the environment with mid-level lapse rates (i.E.,
700-500 hpa) steepening across western and north central neb in the
mid-late afternoon. Mid-level flow aloft will be increasing as a
southwesterly belt is expected to push into the area, overhead
about 50-60 kts. The the mid-level flow then becomes southerly
and the nose gets shunted into south central neb by late evening.

Meanwhile, a lee side surface low will develop today ahead of the
upper level trough in northeast co with a surface trough extending
from southwest neb into the northern sandhills by early afternoon.

The surface low will continue to sharpen and deepen as it moves into
eastern co by early-mid evening with a surface trough then extending
from far southwest neb into central neb. With respect to moisture,
available moisture and delivery will not be as favorable, more so
as return flow is lacking. However, do see better moisture
transport this evening and overnight. Surface dew points within
a zone of better low-level moisture is expected to peak in the
lower 50s across central and north central neb this afternoon.

A dryline is expected push eastward and be pronounced in western neb
today. While agreement is generally fair with respect to surface
features/surface low, the dryline evolution varies notably. Of
which, the GFS is more aggressive in advancing it eastward through
klbf while NAM keeps it west of klbf. This will impact and play a
role in thunderstorm development/location. Thus will need to
watch to see the nature and degree of boundary layer mixing
today/location of dryline. In regards to instability, mlcape
realized between 1000-1500 j/kg is anticipated in a narrow zone in
western neb. Given the mid-level flow, deep layer shear will be
high, 55-70 kts, with supercells possible. The primary threats are
severe hail and severe wind gusts. The coverage for strong-severe
thunderstorms is anticipated to be generally isolated at this
time. Lastly, there is small risk for a brief isolated tornado,
specifically when severe weather initially develops/early on.

Convective development appears to be favored for later in the day
– current thinking is late afternoon-early evening attributable
to cap initially present and destabilization timing. Threat for
severe weather then diminishes mid-late evening. Focus turns to
moderate-heavy rain. Wherein lower troposphere deformation zone
and boundary is expected across southwest neb into north central
neb overnight. Threat for flash flooding is minimal at this time
based on QPF and given current conditions.

The slgt risk area in the SPC convective outlook has increased in
coverage from day 2 (yesterday) wherein the latest SPC day 1 outlook
shows most of the area east of neb highway 61 in a slgt risk area.

This seems reasonable given the forecast parameter space.

Long term (Friday through Wednesday)
issued at 332 am cdt Thu mar 23 2017
low pressure will continue to move eastward across northern kansas
on Friday. This will leave north central nebraska north of the
system and in the rain shower portion of the system. Current
thinking is that precipitation will remain all rain throughout the
day Friday. As 850 mb temperatures drop to near freezing Friday
night, a brief changeover to snow is possible. However, with fairly
warm ground temperatures, accumulations are expected to be minimal.

Temperatures on Friday will remain cool as the cooler airmass begins
to work into the region. Expect highs only in the mid to upper 40s.

A weak upper level ridge builds into the central plains on Saturday
and into early Sunday. A return to dry conditions and warmer
temperatures will prevail through Sunday morning. A brief chance for
some isolated rain showers returns Sunday afternoon as a developing
low off the front range of the rockies moves eastward. However, rain
will be short lived as drier air and high pressure building south
into the region pushes the low quickly out of the area. Dry weather
then continues through Monday night. High temperatures through
Monday hold steady in the mid 50s to low 60s.

An active pattern returns to the midwest as several disturbances
track over the forecast area. Rain chances remain in the forecast
through mid-week as a result. While none of these shortwaves are
extremely strong, locally heavier rainfall totals is possible where
showers do develop. Boundary layer temperatures remain warm enough
to keep precipitation associated with these waves as all rain. The
exception would be in the early morning hours Tuesday, Wednesday,
and Thursday mornings, where a few snowflakes could be mixed in with
the rain. Best chance for mixed precipitation will be across the
pine ridge region and eastern panhandle. Daytime temperatures start
off in the upper 50s to low 60s on Tuesday, but slow decrease
throughout the remainder of the week. Highs by Thursday will only be
in the low 50s.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 655 am cdt Thu mar 23 2017
latest satellite imagery shows high clouds moving northeastward
across western neb with stratus observed moving north from
northern ks. Surface plot shows mainly MVFR ceilings with the
stratus that is present across much of western and north central
neb (though obscured by high clouds). Some patchy fog and drizzle
is expected at times early this morning across north central neb.

Otherwise, flight category improvement is expected from west to
east mid morning to mid afternoon. Threat for showers and strong
to severe thunderstorms is expected to increase late afternoon
into the evening. Current thinking is klbf has a greater
likelihood to be affected by thunderstorms than kvtn at this time.

Increasing chances for rain tonight across all of western and
north central neb. Ifr-lifr ceilings expected to develop late
evening into the small hours across much of western and north
central neb. Visibility reduction expected to be primarily low-end
vfr to MVFR, expect down to ifr in the northern sandhills.

Lbf watches/warnings/advisories

Short term... Et
long term... Kulik
aviation... Et

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Valentine, Miller Field, NE13 mi28 minS 159.00 miOvercast47°F39°F77%1006.4 hPa
Ainsworth Regional Airport, NE22 mi25 minS 1010.00 miOvercast47°F43°F89%1006.1 hPa

Wind History from VTN (wind in knots)
Last 24hrS17
1 day agoE11E9E8E8E11E8E8E10E10E12E10E10SE12SE10SE10SE11SE14SE19
2 days agoE11E11E7NE11E8E8NE9NE9NE7NE9E3E5NE9E9E7N4N5E9NE11E11NE10NE12E9NE10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of CentralPlains    EDIT

Wind Forecast for North Platte, NE (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station North Platte, NE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.