Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wanakah, NY
March 19, 2024 4:35 AM EDT (08:35 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:17 AM Sunset 7:28 PM Moonrise 12:51 PM Moonset 4:04 AM |
LEZ041 Expires:202403190945;;982593 Fzus51 Kbuf 190222 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 1022 pm edt Mon mar 18 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez040-041-190945- buffalo to ripley along lake erie- 1022 pm edt Mon mar 18 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday evening - .
Rest of tonight - Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. Snow showers likely late this evening. A chance of snow showers late. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tuesday - West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest. Lake effect snow showers. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Tuesday night - Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. Lake effect snow showers likely in the evening, then a chance of snow showers overnight. Waves 5 to 8 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Wednesday - West winds 15 to 25 knots increasing to 30 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Wednesday night - West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northwest. A chance of snow showers. Waves 5 to 8 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Thursday - Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northeast 5 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Friday - East winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. A chance of snow showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday - North winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of snow and rain showers during the day, then a chance of snow showers Saturday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 1022 pm edt Mon mar 18 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez040-041-190945- buffalo to ripley along lake erie- 1022 pm edt Mon mar 18 2024
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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 190813 AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 413 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
An elevated frontal boundary will help to produce some widespread snow across the region today with most areas receiving a coating to an inch or two of non impactful snow. Lake enhancement could lend to somewhat higher amounts east of both lakes. While the snow showers will taper off tonight...a frontal passage Wednesday morning will lead the charge of reinforcing cold air. This will promote at least scattered snow showers throughout the day while setting the stage for pure lake effect snow showers Wednesday night and Thursday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A sub 1000mb sfc low in the vcnty of Lake Superior at daybreak will slowly drift east during the course of today
In the process
an elevated warm front will make its way across our forecast area along with a swath of deeper moisture. Frontogenetic lift associated with the elevated boundary should be enough to generate fairly widespread snow showers during the course of the day...esp east/northeast of the lakes where pure lake effect will give way to synoptic forcing and act as an enhancing feature due to H85 temps 'warming' to -8c.
This will effectively eliminate the lake induced instability.
Snowfall amounts today will generally range from one to two inches...although higher amounts of up to four inches will be found near and south of the Tug Hill. Amounts will be most insignificant (an inch or less) over the Finger Lakes region
Otherwise
today will continue to feature below normal temperatures peaking in the low to mid 30s...while a modest 35 knot low level jet will support widespread wind gusts of at least 30 mph.
While a deep cyclonic flow of chilly air will maintain a wealth of clouds over the region tonight...enough weak warm advection should have taken place with the aforementioned elevated warm front to preclude pure lake effect east/northeast of the lakes. There will be some lake and orographically enhanced areas of light snow though that could accumulate as much as three inches in the vcnty of the Tug Hill. Temperatures tonight will settle to within a few degrees of 30.
On Wednesday...a 120kt H25 jet will accompany a robust shortwave that will drive the next cold front through our forecast area. This will easily support scattered to likely pops for snow showers throughout the region with orographics pushing the pops to categorical levels in the vcnty of the Tug Hill. Fresh daytime snow accumulations will generally range from an inch or two...but amounts should reach three inches or so for the higher terrain of the Srn Tier and east of Lk Ontario. While relatively warm sfc's should aid in limiting the impact of the snow on area roadways...there could be a burst of snow with the front that would quickly lead to a slushy coating.
Speaking of which...a 40kt LLJ and a 10kft deep layer of very steep lapse (9-10 deg c/km) rates that will accompany the front could set the stage for a squall line of heavy snow during the frontal passage between mid morning and early afternoon. This set up will also promote a windy afternoon throughout the region...especially over the western counties where winds could gust to 40 mph. If you will be traveling during the aforementioned window...be wary of a 15 minute burst of snow that will not only SIGNIFICANTLY reduce the visibility but could also lead to a glaze of ice.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Upper level trough with cold air advection will remain through this period, generating lake effect snow downwind of the Lakes. Diurnal effects of the higher March sun angle will limit snow totals through the daylight hours, with snow bands becoming disorganized and cellular.
Stronger cold air advection will briefly increase lake effect snow parameters east of the Lakes Wednesday night, however fleeting synoptic moisture will not allow for much band development. Could see 1-3 inches east of Lake Erie Wednesday night, and 2 to 4 inches east of Lake Ontario.
The diminishing moisture Thursday will allow for bands of snow southeast of the Lakes to fade to flurries through the afternoon hours.
It will be blustery at times this period, especially Wednesday and Wednesday night with the passing of the mid level shortwave. Gusts to 35 mph are likely near the Lakes. These winds could bring some limited blowing snow on the Tug Hill Wednesday night.
Below normal temperatures continue this period, especially on Thursday when despite increasing amounts of sunshine, daytime temperatures will struggle to rise above the freezing mark.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
The upper level low will slowly exit our region to begin this period, but the jet stream will remain active. Friday a possible phasing of the northern and southern branch of the jet may yield a developing synoptic system over our region. This system may develop over or to our east, and with the models struggling with phasing this winter will not place high confidence in the storm as of yet.
If the storm does develop, accumulating snow, especially Finger Lakes eastward is possible.
Lake response behind this system looks to be brief, possibly into Saturday as heights increase aloft through the weekend. Another storm system ejecting out of the Rockies late in the weekend may bring a mix of snow changing to rain Monday along a warm front.
AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Widespread cigs arnd 3500ft will accompany some light snow during the remaining pre dawn hours...although MVFR conditions in steadier lake snows will be found southeast of Lake Ontario...impacting sites such as KJHW.
After daybreak...an elevated frontal boundary will support deteriorating conditions with MVFR cigs and snow that will reduce vsbys to 2-4SM. This will be accompanied by winds that increase to include wind gusts of 30-35 knots.
The fairly widespread snow will taper off late today and early this evening...while cigs should improve to VFR levels. The exception will likely be across the Srn Tier and east of Lk Ontario where MVFR cigs should persist.
Outlook...
Wednesday...Occasional lake effect snow showers with local/brief IFR conditions. MVFR/VFR outside of lake effect.
Thursday...MVFR/VFR with a chance of snow showers and associated brief/local IFR.
Friday...Mainly VFR with increasing chances for snow showers.
Friday night through Saturday...MVFR with chances for snow showers.
MARINE
A tight sfc pressure gradient between relatively deep low pressure to our north and high pressure centered over the Lower Mississippi valley will support widespread small craft advisories throughout the region today. This includes the Upper IAG River and Buffalo Harbor with a freshly issued SCA in this package.
While winds will drop off a bit tonight...moderate to fresh breezes will keep conditions choppy enough to warrant extending many of the SCAs through the night up to when a widespread gale watch will go into effect Wednesday afternoon.
The gale watch for Wednesday is a result of a 40kt low level jet that will accompany the passage of...and persist for several hours afterward...a strong cold front.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for NYZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Thursday for LEZ040- 041.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for LOZ042>045.
Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday night for LOZ042>045-062>065.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 413 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
An elevated frontal boundary will help to produce some widespread snow across the region today with most areas receiving a coating to an inch or two of non impactful snow. Lake enhancement could lend to somewhat higher amounts east of both lakes. While the snow showers will taper off tonight...a frontal passage Wednesday morning will lead the charge of reinforcing cold air. This will promote at least scattered snow showers throughout the day while setting the stage for pure lake effect snow showers Wednesday night and Thursday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A sub 1000mb sfc low in the vcnty of Lake Superior at daybreak will slowly drift east during the course of today
In the process
an elevated warm front will make its way across our forecast area along with a swath of deeper moisture. Frontogenetic lift associated with the elevated boundary should be enough to generate fairly widespread snow showers during the course of the day...esp east/northeast of the lakes where pure lake effect will give way to synoptic forcing and act as an enhancing feature due to H85 temps 'warming' to -8c.
This will effectively eliminate the lake induced instability.
Snowfall amounts today will generally range from one to two inches...although higher amounts of up to four inches will be found near and south of the Tug Hill. Amounts will be most insignificant (an inch or less) over the Finger Lakes region
Otherwise
today will continue to feature below normal temperatures peaking in the low to mid 30s...while a modest 35 knot low level jet will support widespread wind gusts of at least 30 mph.
While a deep cyclonic flow of chilly air will maintain a wealth of clouds over the region tonight...enough weak warm advection should have taken place with the aforementioned elevated warm front to preclude pure lake effect east/northeast of the lakes. There will be some lake and orographically enhanced areas of light snow though that could accumulate as much as three inches in the vcnty of the Tug Hill. Temperatures tonight will settle to within a few degrees of 30.
On Wednesday...a 120kt H25 jet will accompany a robust shortwave that will drive the next cold front through our forecast area. This will easily support scattered to likely pops for snow showers throughout the region with orographics pushing the pops to categorical levels in the vcnty of the Tug Hill. Fresh daytime snow accumulations will generally range from an inch or two...but amounts should reach three inches or so for the higher terrain of the Srn Tier and east of Lk Ontario. While relatively warm sfc's should aid in limiting the impact of the snow on area roadways...there could be a burst of snow with the front that would quickly lead to a slushy coating.
Speaking of which...a 40kt LLJ and a 10kft deep layer of very steep lapse (9-10 deg c/km) rates that will accompany the front could set the stage for a squall line of heavy snow during the frontal passage between mid morning and early afternoon. This set up will also promote a windy afternoon throughout the region...especially over the western counties where winds could gust to 40 mph. If you will be traveling during the aforementioned window...be wary of a 15 minute burst of snow that will not only SIGNIFICANTLY reduce the visibility but could also lead to a glaze of ice.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Upper level trough with cold air advection will remain through this period, generating lake effect snow downwind of the Lakes. Diurnal effects of the higher March sun angle will limit snow totals through the daylight hours, with snow bands becoming disorganized and cellular.
Stronger cold air advection will briefly increase lake effect snow parameters east of the Lakes Wednesday night, however fleeting synoptic moisture will not allow for much band development. Could see 1-3 inches east of Lake Erie Wednesday night, and 2 to 4 inches east of Lake Ontario.
The diminishing moisture Thursday will allow for bands of snow southeast of the Lakes to fade to flurries through the afternoon hours.
It will be blustery at times this period, especially Wednesday and Wednesday night with the passing of the mid level shortwave. Gusts to 35 mph are likely near the Lakes. These winds could bring some limited blowing snow on the Tug Hill Wednesday night.
Below normal temperatures continue this period, especially on Thursday when despite increasing amounts of sunshine, daytime temperatures will struggle to rise above the freezing mark.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
The upper level low will slowly exit our region to begin this period, but the jet stream will remain active. Friday a possible phasing of the northern and southern branch of the jet may yield a developing synoptic system over our region. This system may develop over or to our east, and with the models struggling with phasing this winter will not place high confidence in the storm as of yet.
If the storm does develop, accumulating snow, especially Finger Lakes eastward is possible.
Lake response behind this system looks to be brief, possibly into Saturday as heights increase aloft through the weekend. Another storm system ejecting out of the Rockies late in the weekend may bring a mix of snow changing to rain Monday along a warm front.
AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Widespread cigs arnd 3500ft will accompany some light snow during the remaining pre dawn hours...although MVFR conditions in steadier lake snows will be found southeast of Lake Ontario...impacting sites such as KJHW.
After daybreak...an elevated frontal boundary will support deteriorating conditions with MVFR cigs and snow that will reduce vsbys to 2-4SM. This will be accompanied by winds that increase to include wind gusts of 30-35 knots.
The fairly widespread snow will taper off late today and early this evening...while cigs should improve to VFR levels. The exception will likely be across the Srn Tier and east of Lk Ontario where MVFR cigs should persist.
Outlook...
Wednesday...Occasional lake effect snow showers with local/brief IFR conditions. MVFR/VFR outside of lake effect.
Thursday...MVFR/VFR with a chance of snow showers and associated brief/local IFR.
Friday...Mainly VFR with increasing chances for snow showers.
Friday night through Saturday...MVFR with chances for snow showers.
MARINE
A tight sfc pressure gradient between relatively deep low pressure to our north and high pressure centered over the Lower Mississippi valley will support widespread small craft advisories throughout the region today. This includes the Upper IAG River and Buffalo Harbor with a freshly issued SCA in this package.
While winds will drop off a bit tonight...moderate to fresh breezes will keep conditions choppy enough to warrant extending many of the SCAs through the night up to when a widespread gale watch will go into effect Wednesday afternoon.
The gale watch for Wednesday is a result of a 40kt low level jet that will accompany the passage of...and persist for several hours afterward...a strong cold front.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for NYZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Thursday for LEZ040- 041.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for LOZ042>045.
Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday night for LOZ042>045-062>065.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY | 8 mi | 48 min | 32°F | 29.80 | ||||
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY | 10 mi | 48 min | W 16G | 31°F | 44°F | 29.80 | 23°F | |
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY | 25 mi | 48 min | 31°F | 29.83 | ||||
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY | 29 mi | 36 min | W 26G | 33°F | 29.82 | |||
YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY | 38 mi | 36 min | SW 8.9G | 32°F | 29.82 | |||
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY | 43 mi | 36 min | W 22G | 33°F | 29.83 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KBUF BUFFALO NIAGARA INTL,NY | 17 sm | 41 min | W 09 | 9 sm | Overcast | Lt Snow | 30°F | 19°F | 64% | 29.82 |
Buffalo, NY,
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