Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Aurelia, IA
March 19, 2024 8:52 AM CDT (13:52 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:27 AM Sunset 7:38 PM Moonrise 1:00 PM Moonset 4:12 AM |
Area Discussion for - Sioux Falls, SD
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FXUS63 KFSD 191057 AFDFSD
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 557 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Northwest winds will gust up to around 30 mph today but relative humidity will only fall to 30-45%, keeping elevated fire danger across the area today.
- A push of cold air Tuesday into Wednesday will result in temperatures slightly below normal Wednesday through next weekend.
- Confidence continues to increase in chances for precipitation late Wednesday night through the weekend.
- High uncertainty remains for the weekend and early next week forecast.
Those with weekend travel plans will want to continue to monitor the latest forecast for the most up to date information.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 352 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Mostly quiet conditions begin the day today with clear skies and elevated winds thanks to the low level jet. Warm air advection (WAA)
is currently aloft ahead of a shortwave trough diving southward through the area. A cold front tied to this wave is also pushing through the forecast area and will exit the area around sunrise this morning. Winds will turn out of the northwest in the post frontal cold air advection (CAA) regime. Despite the CAA, temperatures will warm up to the 50s and low 60s along the Missouri River. On top of the warming temperatures, dew points will also warm behind the cold front, warming up to the 20s and 30s. This will keep relative humidity (RH) values only down to 30-45% this afternoon, lowest along the Missouri River. Despite RH not meeting critical fire danger levels, northwest winds will gust up to around 30 mph. With winds meeting critical fire danger thresholds but not RH, elevated fire danger is expected this afternoon. Although fire headlines are not anticipated for today, will continue to monitor trends throughout the day as the previously mentioned CAA may cool mid level thermal profiles enough to allow for some slightly deeper mixing to take place. A second shot of CAA pushes into the area Tuesday evening and night which will result in cold low temperatures all the way down to the teens and 20s.
Wednesday will be a quiet day as high pressure slides through the Upper Midwest. 850 mb temperatures between -5 to -10 degrees C will result in cooler high temperatures only up to the 30s and low 40s.
Winds will also be much lighter at 5-10 mph as they turn out of the northeast. The surface high will continue to slide off to the east during the evening and overnight hours. This will result in winds at the surface and low levels turning out of the southeast. This will advect in drier air into the low levels which may create some low level saturation issues. A mid level wave will begin to encroach on the Northern Plains Wednesday evening and night, strengthening WAA and frontogenesis (FGEN) between 850-700 mb. This will be our next chance for precipitation that will mainly come in the forms of rain and snow. In a shift from yesterday's forecast, the dry air in the low levels coupled with the best forcing for ascent residing northeast of the forecast area has reduced precipitation chances from Wednesday night through most of Thursday.
While some light precipitation is possible during this period of time through the day Thursday, it looks to be tied up mainly north of I-90. As of now, snow accumulations between a few tenths to up to around an inch are possible. However confidence is only moderate at 30-50% chance for this potential. An inverted trough just north of a surface low pressure system will push through the forecast area Thursday evening and night. A cold front will lie within the surface trough that may be able to spark some better forcing and thus produce some more snow. Medium range guidance depicts stronger omega (upward motion) within the dendritic growth zone (DGZ) along with strong FGEN at 850 mb all under the right entrance region of an upper level jet streak. BUFKIT soundings do show top down saturation during this period of time along with a hint of CAPE. With the ascent within the right entrance region of the upper level jet streak, some negative EPV may be possible which could support a narrow but stronger band of snow. This may lead to a couple of inches of snow mainly along and north of a Chamberlain, South Dakota to Canton, South Dakota, to Sioux Rapids, Iowa line. South of this line looks to see more rain then snow given slightly warmer thermal profiles. Ensembles generally support this possibility as they show a 30-70% chance for snow totals exceeding an inch of snow. the highest probabilities for accumulating snow continue to reside just northeast of the forecast area, across northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota. Low temperatures Thursday night will fall to the 20s.
Friday will be another quiet but cool day as high temperatures only warm to the 30s and 40s. Any remaining precipitation will fall during the morning hours, leaving dry conditions for the afternoon hours. A thermal gradient will set up along the front range of the Rocky mountains which will set the stage for the next storm system.
Saturday will begin dry with high temperatures only warming to the 30s across the area. Medium range guidance remains in decent agreement in a stronger upper level wave ejecting into the plains late Saturday. This wave will be the main driver of precipitation chances late Saturday through early next week. However, the evolution of the synoptic pattern increases in variance into early next week, making for higher uncertainty about how this event will shape up. Ensembles continue to support this possibility for a stronger system as they all show a 40-70% chance for exceeding a half an inch of liquid precipitation on Sunday. Cluster analysis also supports this as the most favored cluster shows a 50% chance for exceeding half an inch of QPF during this same period of time.
Will certainly keep an eye on this system as it could be a stronger system to impact the region. Chances for precipitation look to linger through Tuesday before the system finally pulls out of the area. Will continue to monitor trends with this system.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 556 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
VFR conditions are expected for the TAF period. Clear skies and elevated winds begin the TAF period. While skies are clear, MVFR/VFR stratus up in Canada may push into southwest Minnesota this afternoon. There is some uncertainty as warming temperatures during the morning may mix out this stratus before it gets to our area.
Good news is that this stratus will avoid all TAF sites.
Winds will remain out of the northwest today with gusts up to 20-25 knots expected. The strongest gusts will reside along and east of the James River. Winds will wane this evening and begin to turn northeasterly to end the TAF period.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 557 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Northwest winds will gust up to around 30 mph today but relative humidity will only fall to 30-45%, keeping elevated fire danger across the area today.
- A push of cold air Tuesday into Wednesday will result in temperatures slightly below normal Wednesday through next weekend.
- Confidence continues to increase in chances for precipitation late Wednesday night through the weekend.
- High uncertainty remains for the weekend and early next week forecast.
Those with weekend travel plans will want to continue to monitor the latest forecast for the most up to date information.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 352 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Mostly quiet conditions begin the day today with clear skies and elevated winds thanks to the low level jet. Warm air advection (WAA)
is currently aloft ahead of a shortwave trough diving southward through the area. A cold front tied to this wave is also pushing through the forecast area and will exit the area around sunrise this morning. Winds will turn out of the northwest in the post frontal cold air advection (CAA) regime. Despite the CAA, temperatures will warm up to the 50s and low 60s along the Missouri River. On top of the warming temperatures, dew points will also warm behind the cold front, warming up to the 20s and 30s. This will keep relative humidity (RH) values only down to 30-45% this afternoon, lowest along the Missouri River. Despite RH not meeting critical fire danger levels, northwest winds will gust up to around 30 mph. With winds meeting critical fire danger thresholds but not RH, elevated fire danger is expected this afternoon. Although fire headlines are not anticipated for today, will continue to monitor trends throughout the day as the previously mentioned CAA may cool mid level thermal profiles enough to allow for some slightly deeper mixing to take place. A second shot of CAA pushes into the area Tuesday evening and night which will result in cold low temperatures all the way down to the teens and 20s.
Wednesday will be a quiet day as high pressure slides through the Upper Midwest. 850 mb temperatures between -5 to -10 degrees C will result in cooler high temperatures only up to the 30s and low 40s.
Winds will also be much lighter at 5-10 mph as they turn out of the northeast. The surface high will continue to slide off to the east during the evening and overnight hours. This will result in winds at the surface and low levels turning out of the southeast. This will advect in drier air into the low levels which may create some low level saturation issues. A mid level wave will begin to encroach on the Northern Plains Wednesday evening and night, strengthening WAA and frontogenesis (FGEN) between 850-700 mb. This will be our next chance for precipitation that will mainly come in the forms of rain and snow. In a shift from yesterday's forecast, the dry air in the low levels coupled with the best forcing for ascent residing northeast of the forecast area has reduced precipitation chances from Wednesday night through most of Thursday.
While some light precipitation is possible during this period of time through the day Thursday, it looks to be tied up mainly north of I-90. As of now, snow accumulations between a few tenths to up to around an inch are possible. However confidence is only moderate at 30-50% chance for this potential. An inverted trough just north of a surface low pressure system will push through the forecast area Thursday evening and night. A cold front will lie within the surface trough that may be able to spark some better forcing and thus produce some more snow. Medium range guidance depicts stronger omega (upward motion) within the dendritic growth zone (DGZ) along with strong FGEN at 850 mb all under the right entrance region of an upper level jet streak. BUFKIT soundings do show top down saturation during this period of time along with a hint of CAPE. With the ascent within the right entrance region of the upper level jet streak, some negative EPV may be possible which could support a narrow but stronger band of snow. This may lead to a couple of inches of snow mainly along and north of a Chamberlain, South Dakota to Canton, South Dakota, to Sioux Rapids, Iowa line. South of this line looks to see more rain then snow given slightly warmer thermal profiles. Ensembles generally support this possibility as they show a 30-70% chance for snow totals exceeding an inch of snow. the highest probabilities for accumulating snow continue to reside just northeast of the forecast area, across northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota. Low temperatures Thursday night will fall to the 20s.
Friday will be another quiet but cool day as high temperatures only warm to the 30s and 40s. Any remaining precipitation will fall during the morning hours, leaving dry conditions for the afternoon hours. A thermal gradient will set up along the front range of the Rocky mountains which will set the stage for the next storm system.
Saturday will begin dry with high temperatures only warming to the 30s across the area. Medium range guidance remains in decent agreement in a stronger upper level wave ejecting into the plains late Saturday. This wave will be the main driver of precipitation chances late Saturday through early next week. However, the evolution of the synoptic pattern increases in variance into early next week, making for higher uncertainty about how this event will shape up. Ensembles continue to support this possibility for a stronger system as they all show a 40-70% chance for exceeding a half an inch of liquid precipitation on Sunday. Cluster analysis also supports this as the most favored cluster shows a 50% chance for exceeding half an inch of QPF during this same period of time.
Will certainly keep an eye on this system as it could be a stronger system to impact the region. Chances for precipitation look to linger through Tuesday before the system finally pulls out of the area. Will continue to monitor trends with this system.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 556 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
VFR conditions are expected for the TAF period. Clear skies and elevated winds begin the TAF period. While skies are clear, MVFR/VFR stratus up in Canada may push into southwest Minnesota this afternoon. There is some uncertainty as warming temperatures during the morning may mix out this stratus before it gets to our area.
Good news is that this stratus will avoid all TAF sites.
Winds will remain out of the northwest today with gusts up to 20-25 knots expected. The strongest gusts will reside along and east of the James River. Winds will wane this evening and begin to turn northeasterly to end the TAF period.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KCKP CHEROKEE COUNTY RGNL,IA | 11 sm | 17 min | NNW 08 | 10 sm | Clear | 37°F | 21°F | 52% | 29.85 | |
KSLB STORM LAKE MUNI,IA | 11 sm | 17 min | WNW 11 | 10 sm | Clear | 36°F | 21°F | 55% | 29.83 |
Des Moines, IA,
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