Monday, September25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Aurelia, IA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 7:17PM Monday September 25, 2017 3:47 PM CDT (20:47 UTC) Moonrise 11:30AMMoonset 9:37PM Illumination 27% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Aurelia, IA
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location: 42.73, -95.36     debug


Area Discussion for - Sioux Falls, SD
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Fxus63 kfsd 251751
afdfsd
area forecast discussion
national weather service sioux falls sd
1251 pm cdt Mon sep 25 2017

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 335 am cdt Mon sep 25 2017
a cool and wet day in store for much of the area today, persisting
into tonight, as remain situated between slow-moving upper trough
over the rockies, and strong upper ridge east of the mississippi.

Entire forecast area should remain on the cool side of the surface
boundary through tonight, with the nearly stationary 850mb boundary
near southeast of kykn-kfsd-kmml line continuing to focus rain and
embedded thunderstorms over the southeast 1 2-2 3 of the cwa. See a
weakening in 300k-310k isentropic lift around 18z behind the morning
wave, so could see a decrease in areal coverage of showers around
midday. However, another decent wave moves in from the southwest in
the late afternoon evening, which should expand coverage back to the
west again. Elevated instability likewise wanes a bit through the
midday period, but some weak instability returns to the southeast
cwa through the afternoon evening, so will keep an isolated thunder
mention there. Expect we will still see pockets of heavier rain, as
pwat values across the southeast half of the CWA remain extremely
high (1.5+ inches) for this time of year through tonight. The weak
instability would also support more isolated showers with more
intense rainfall rates. With the widespread clouds rain and cool air
mass, highs today will be 10-15 degrees below normal in most areas,
with readings only topping out in the mid-upper 50s for all but our
far southeast.

Although a bit slower than previous runs, still seeing a good punch
of mid-upper level drying move into the forecast area as the upper
trough shifts east late tonight. This along with broad downglide on
the isentropic surfaces and weak cold advection in the lower levels,
should bring a gradual decrease in precipitation through the late
night hours. Low clouds and a modest northwest breeze will keep
temperatures from falling off too much, but still looking at lows in
the mid 40s-lower 50s.

Long term (Tuesday through Sunday)
issued at 335 am cdt Mon sep 25 2017
could see some light rain linger across our eastern zones into
Tuesday morning before drying aloft shunts everything east of the
area. Should see some increasing sunshine by afternoon, though 850mb
temperatures in the single digits will still yield sub-normal highs
in the upper 50s-lower 60s.

The broad upper trough slides eastward through the great lakes
through the mid-late week period, while a ridge builds over the
western conus. Anticipate some moderation in temperatures Wednesday
and Thursday, but models in generally good agreement in dropping a
wave associated cool front southward through the upper midwest
Thursday night Friday. Moisture somewhat lacking as the wave moves
through, so do not anticipate any precipitation in our area at this
time. The front will knock temperatures back for Friday, though how
far back is somewhat in question, as models differ on the strength
of the cold push. Given this uncertainty, did not alter blended
guidance, though could see highs a few degrees cooler than current
forecast if the more aggressive models pan out.

Next weekend sees the upper trough retreat eastward, allowing upper
ridge to build toward the northern plains mississippi valley. This
should bring warmer temperatures back into the region, along with
spotty precipitation chances as southerly flow increases Saturday
night Sunday ahead of another upper trough. System looks to be more
progressive, so do not see a repeat of this past weekend as far as
rainfall amounts. However, GFS does depict pwat values increasing to
over 1 inch, so modest amounts are possible.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 1249 pm cdt Mon sep 25 2017
all airfields in the region will have chances for rain today
through the overnight hours. The highest chances for rain are in
nw iowa and lower as one heads northwest toward central south
dakota. Given the weak forcing and poor model performance over the
last 12 hours, it will be hard to nail down timing on heavier
precipitation. However, there is fairly high confidence on a few
items: one, thunderstorms look unlikely for most areas today,
given a lack of instability. Two, low cloud ceilings will likely
keep most sites under ifr or MVFR conditions through daybreak
Tuesday. Three, precipitation looks to end by mid-morning Tuesday,
with ceilings lifting and slowly breaking throughout the
afternoon and evening hours.

Fsd watches warnings advisories
Sd... None.

Mn... None.

Ia... None.

Ne... None.

Short term... Jh
long term... Jh
aviation... Vandenboogart


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherokee, Cherokee Municipal Airport, IA10 mi52 minNE 1010.00 miOvercast59°F59°F100%1013.2 hPa
Storm Lake, IA11 mi52 minNE 11 G 1610.00 mi59°F57°F94%1013.5 hPa

Wind History from CKP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS13
G21
SW17
G23
N3N5N3N5N6N7NE7W3N5NW5N6NE3NE8
G15
N8NE4NE4N6NE7N8N3NE10NE7
1 day agoSE15
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S7SE6SE8S8SW4S3SW3CalmS4CalmSE3CalmS4S3S5S5S11S11S11
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2 days agoS20
G25
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G16
S9S8S6S5S5S6S3S6S7S8
G15
S13
G16
S11S10S9S17
G23

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Sioux Falls, SD (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Des Moines, IA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.