Monday, June26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Aurelia, IA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:48AMSunset 9:08PM Monday June 26, 2017 5:34 PM CDT (22:34 UTC) Moonrise 7:45AMMoonset 10:16PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Aurelia, IA
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location: 42.73, -95.36     debug


Area Discussion for - Sioux Falls, SD
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Fxus63 kfsd 262053
afdfsd
area forecast discussion
national weather service sioux falls sd
353 pm cdt Mon jun 26 2017

Short term (this evening through Tuesday)
issued at 353 pm cdt Mon jun 26 2017
quiet weather conditions will continue to prevail as a surface ridge
moves southeastward into the area. As the ridge axis moves out of
the area, increasing southerly winds will become more dominant after
midnight. With tightening pressure gradient on the backside of
surface high, increasing windy conditions are expected over the area
from west to east. Tonight will be mostly clear and chilly for this
time of year. Lows will range from the upper 40s east of i-29, which
is where the lightest winds will prevail, and in the lower 50s west
where breezy to windy southerly flow are expected.

Increasing southerly surface winds will bring more moisture, and
clouds across the area on Tuesday, but dry conditions will prevail,
at least, through the evening. The main impact on Tuesday will be
strong winds from 20 to 30 mph, gusting to 35-40 mph. The MAX wind
gusts are expected west of james river. With 850mb temperatures
ranging from 15 to 22 c, a warm day is on tap. Highs will generally
be from the upper 70s near 80, east of i-29, and in the mid to upper
80s west.

Long term (Tuesday night through Monday)
issued at 353 pm cdt Mon jun 26 2017
primary focus for this forecast will be on thunderstorms and
associated severe threat moving across the area Tuesday night into
early Wednesday. Axis of instability still works into areas west of
the james river valley by 00z, but this area remains moderately
capped with better forcing from mid-level wave low-level boundary
still west of the missouri river. GFS canadian are a bit faster with
pushing the upper support eastward, so will have to watch this for
possible earlier development, but with the cap in place, later
timing seems more reasonable. These features approach south central
south dakota through the early-mid evening, so anticipate potential
for storms ramping up west of the james river by 03z, then tracking
eastward across the forecast area through the overnight hours.

As far as severe potential, greatest threat still looks near west of
the james prior to 06z. Will still have a weak cap to overcome, and
as the evening progresses, storms more likely to become elevated in
nature, which will limit effective shear. That said, soundings in
areas of our far west depict steep mid-level lapse rates with modest
effective shear of 30-40kt, which should support potential for large
hail. Lapse rates become less favorable farther to the east thanks
to warming aloft, so threat of large hail should diminish as storms
approach the i-29 corridor late evening toward 06z. Dry mid-levels
initially should also support damaging wind threat, but this also
diminishes by late evening as the storms track east. While isolated
severe cannot be ruled out as the MCS tracks into northwest iowa or
southwest minnesota later Tuesday night, greater risk for organized
severe remains focused across our western third and will maintain a
mention of severe along and west of the james river Tuesday evening.

As of now, models in pretty good agreement showing the surface
boundary very near or out of our far east by peak heating Wednesday
afternoon, with axis of instability and higher shear southeast of
the forecast area. This should limit the potential for additional
thunderstorm development through the afternoon evening, though will
hang on to a low chance in our far east during the afternoon for
now, to allow for timing adjustments once evolution of convection
tonight early Wednesday becomes more clear. Should see a mild start
to the day thanks to lingering moisture stout southerly flow, but
temperatures will be somewhat slow to recover in the wake of the
morning convection, and highs in the upper 70s-80s look reasonable.

For Thursday Thursday night, a northern stream trough digs down into
the northern plains. Our midweek frontal boundary stalls over the
central plains to mid-mississippi valley, so deeper moisture will
remain locked well to our south through Thursday evening, possibly
sneaking back as far north as northwest iowa later Thursday night.

So while we should see the potential for showers or thunderstorms,
moisture will be limited over much of the area and will keep pops in
the chance range for now.

Precip chances could linger into Friday, depending on how long the
upper trough lingers across the region, but otherwise transitioning
to a little drier pattern with only spotty chances at best as we
head into july on Saturday. Another modest wave slated to track
through the region early next week, though timing is inconsistent
among the models, so periodic low chances Sunday-Monday. As far as
temperatures, daytime readings look to be on the cool side of normal
late this week into early next, but not nearly as cool as we saw
this past weekend.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 1214 pm cdt Mon jun 26 2017
vfr conditions are expected through the TAF period. The main
impact will be increasing southerly surface winds after midnight
from west to east. Gusty winds up to 35 mph are expected east of
i-29 on Tuesday.

Fsd watches warnings advisories
Sd... None.

Mn... None.

Ia... None.

Ne... None.

Short term... 05
long term... Jh
aviation... 05


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherokee, Cherokee Municipal Airport, IA10 mi59 minENE 5 G 1410.00 miFair71°F40°F33%1021 hPa
Storm Lake, IA11 mi39 minENE 8 G 1410.00 miFair70°F39°F33%1021 hPa

Wind History from CKP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN9NW7N5CalmCalmCalmN5NE6NE3CalmS4CalmN3CalmCalmNE6NE5NE5N3NW3NE10NE7N9NE5
1 day agoNW14
G22
NW10
G16
NW8
G17
NW6NW3NW5N5NW4NW4CalmW5W6W7NW10
G15
NW9
G14
NW12NW9
G17
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G20
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2 days agoNW14
G19
NW9
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NW8NW3NW3N4NW6NW3Calm----------W7W7W8
G14
W12
G19
W17
G20
W18
G24
NW17
G25
NW16
G22
NW9
G25
NW17
G26

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Sioux Falls, SD (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Des Moines, IA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.