Saturday, February23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Aurelia, IA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 6:08PM Saturday February 23, 2019 2:59 PM CST (20:59 UTC) Moonrise 11:10PMMoonset 9:42AM Illumination 80% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Aurelia, IA
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location: 42.73, -95.36     debug


Area Discussion for - Sioux Falls, SD
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Fxus63 kfsd 231733
afdfsd
area forecast discussion
national weather service sioux falls sd
1133 am cst Sat feb 23 2019

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 358 am cst Sat feb 23 2019
the wave and favorable right entrance region of the upper level
jet (along with some intruding instability) that brought this
evenings snowfall has moved off to the northeast. In its wake,
forecast soundings continue to show a saturated lower atmosphere
below the ice growth zone with subtle signs of lift. For this
reason, will continue to carry mention of patchy freezing drizzle
until about mid morning, although reports of impacts thus far have
been minimal and any freezing drizzle that falls may land on snow
covered surfaces, further limiting its impacts.

By this afternoon, all focus will be on the large upper level wave
currently visible on WV satellite imagery exiting the desert
southwest. Deterministic and ensemble model guidance continue to
remain in fairly good agreement in the surface low tracking from
south central ks into northwest mo by this evening and then into
southern wi by tonight. As it does so, an area of mid level
frontogenesis will slide from west to east thru central and
eastern sd and may bring some light snow this afternoon before the
main swath of precipitation swings in from the southwest across
our southeast quadrant counties. Snowfall over our NW ia counties
could be fairly heavy at times later this afternoon and evening
with favorable epv* values and good lift in the dendritic zone.

Sref probabilities of 1 inch per hour rates also highlight this
area. The surface low pulls far enough east (deepening as it does
so) to pull the snow with it by late tonight.

Snow amounts: still expect a sharp gradient in snow amounts on the
north side of this system and thus a small shift either northwest or
southeast could have fairly drastic impact on snow amounts for any
one given area. This idea is further displayed in SREF and gefs
plume diagrams from locations on the northern periphery with
nearly a 6-10 inch spread in some locations. For now, around an
inch of new snow is expected from roughly yankton to sioux falls
to marshall, with 1 to 3 inches southeast from there. The heaviest
amounts will be from roughly southeast of a sioux city to spencer
line where 3 to 7 inches are possible.

Winds: by Saturday night the combination of stout cold advection and
a tight pressure gradient will lead to gusty
northerly northwesterly winds thru the day Sunday. Naefs guidance
continues to show 850 mb winds in the 97th percentile of
climatology or higher. With forecast soundings showing winds of 35
to 45 kts sitting at the top of the mixed layer and varying
degrees of favorable low level lapse rates, expect blowing snow to
be a significant issue. Winds will gradually subside from west to
east late Sunday afternoon and evening.

Headlines: will maintain the going winter weather advisory over nw
ia this morning for any lingering patchy freezing drizzle and the
initial snow this afternoon. Will then transition to a blizzard
warning by early evening which was a good compromise of the heavier
snow and arrival of stronger winds. Expanded the blizzard warning
into the i-29 corridor starting at midnight given the additional
fluffy snowfall that occurred this evening and the general lack
of freezing drizzle to cap the existing snow cover. Also added an
winter weather advisory west to around the james river where
blowing snow will also be a significant concern but confidence in
widespread blizzard conditions was lower.

Long term (Sunday through Friday)
issued at 358 am cst Sat feb 23 2019
Monday thru Saturday: with active weather in the near term, made
minimal changes to the extended portions of the forecast. With
fairly zonal flow aloft and the presence of occasional mid level
frontal forcing and or quick moving shortwaves, will continue to
see occasional light snow chances through the week. Temperatures
will also remain well below normal with high temperatures Monday
struggling to make it out of the single digits in many locations.

This may result in advisory level wind chills Monday morning.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Sunday afternoon)
issued at 1115 am cst Sat feb 23 2019
poor conditions are expected through the TAF period. Through this
afternoon, areas of fog will continue throughout the region, with
visibility as low as a quarter mile at times in northwest iowa
toward south central mn. Light snow will begin spreading northward
this afternoon, while winds gradually increase. Expect some
blowing snow and lower visibility issues to begin late afternoon
into the evening. Heavy snow will begin working into the southeast
corner of the forecast area late afternoon and early evening,
however the heaviest snowfall is expected to the east of ksux.

Snow will quickly exit the area by midnight. By mid to late
evening, winds are expected to increase to 25 to 35 kt with gusts
as highs at 45kt at times in the early morning hours through the
end of the TAF period. The strong winds will create blowing snow
and near white out conditions across the eastern half of the
forecast area (along and east of i-29) even after snow has ended.

Expect drops in visibility to a 1 2 mile or less, including kfsd
and ksux.

Fsd watches warnings advisories
Sd... Winter weather advisory until 6 pm cst this evening for sdz071.

Winter weather advisory from midnight tonight to 6 pm cst Sunday
for sdz038-039-053-054-059>061-065-066-068>070.

Blizzard warning from 6 pm this evening to 6 pm cst Sunday for
sdz071.

Blizzard warning from midnight tonight to 6 pm cst Sunday for
sdz040-055-056-062-067.

Mn... Blizzard warning from midnight tonight to 6 pm cst Sunday for
mnz071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098.

Ia... Winter weather advisory until 6 pm cst this evening for iaz003-
012>014-020>022-031-032.

Blizzard warning from 6 pm this evening to 6 pm cst Sunday for
iaz003-012>014-020>022-031-032.

Blizzard warning from midnight tonight to 6 pm cst Sunday for
iaz001-002.

Ne... Winter weather advisory until 6 pm cst this evening for nez014.

Blizzard warning from 6 pm this evening to 6 pm cst Sunday for
nez014.

Winter weather advisory until 6 pm cst Sunday for nez013.

Short term... Kalin
long term... Kalin
aviation...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherokee, Cherokee Municipal Airport, IA10 mi64 minN 14 G 171.75 miFog/Mist31°F30°F99%1005.8 hPa
Storm Lake, IA11 mi64 minNNE 161.00 miFog/Mist32°F32°F100%1004.4 hPa

Wind History from CKP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE5E8E7E10E6E5E9SE6E10E8
G16
E4SE5E3NE3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN8
1 day agoW5W3CalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3N5CalmNE4CalmCalmNE4CalmCalmCalmE9E8E3E7
2 days agoW14W13W10W8
G15
SW12W8SW3SW4SW4SW4SW3CalmCalmSW3S6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmSW4W5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Sioux Falls, SD (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Des Moines, IA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.