Tuesday, October23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Aurelia, IA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:47AMSunset 6:31PM Tuesday October 23, 2018 11:04 AM CDT (16:04 UTC) Moonrise 5:26PMMoonset 5:22AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Aurelia, IA
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location: 42.73, -95.36     debug


Area Discussion for - Sioux Falls, SD
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Fxus63 kfsd 231112
afdfsd
area forecast discussion
national weather service sioux falls sd
612 am cdt Tue oct 23 2018

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 320 am cdt Tue oct 23 2018
quiet weather is expected the next 24 h. A ridge of high pressure
has brought light winds and clear skies allowing temperatures to
really drop overnight - especially west of i-29. So most places
will have a cold start today and with 925 mb temps 5-10 c colder
than yesterday, highs today will be 10 to 20 degrees colder than
yesterday east of the james river. Return southerly flow into
central south dakota will bring some warmer air north such that
highs will be in the upper 50s to around 60. As the high continues
to move to the east tonight, winds will slowly increase out of the
southeast over much of eastern south dakota and eastern nebraska.

In addition, an upper wave will be slowly approaching from the
west which will lead to an increase in high clouds through the
night. Farther east, winds will remain rather light and skies are
expected to remain mostly clear through the night. The result will
be large variation in lows from around 30 in southwestern
minnesota and northwestern iowa to around 40 in south central sd.

Long term (Wednesday through Monday)
issued at 320 am cdt Tue oct 23 2018
the biggest concern will be rain chances Wednesday night into
Thursday evening.

The aforementioned upper wave will continue to move east through
the day on Wednesday and move across the area Wednesday night and
Thursday. All models are in good agreement on the timing of the
wave passage. They also agree there will be a lack of any type of
low level or mid level boundary to be a focus for stronger ascent.

The result is a broad area of isentropic ascent on the 300-310 k
surfaces. This lift will be enhanced by the approaching wave. The
isentropic ascent moves into central sd by Wednesday afternoon and
progresses into minnesota and iowa Wednesday night. The limiting
factor with this system is moisture. With a strong wave moving
across the southern plains, moisture flow into the northern plains
will be somewhat limited - especially below 800 mb. That will
mean that rain that develops above 800 mb will have to saturate
the low levels. The GFS bufr soundings show that it takes a few
hours for low levels to saturate - especially Wednesday afternoon
and evening. Given the duration of the forcing for ascent shown in
all model solutions, the role of this low level dry air will be
to delay the start of any precipitation. So for the forecast
basically really start increasing pops west of the james river
later Wednesday afternoon. This area of light rain will gradually
organize and expand as it moves toward i-29 Wednesday evening
resulting in a fairly large area of light rain after midnight from
southwestern minnesota into southeastern south dakota and
northeastern nebraska. Because of the model consistency on the
timing and motion of this wave have raised pops to 80 to 90
percent Wednesday. Also with rain expected for several hours have
increased QPF to over 0.25 inch centered on the intersection of
the iowa, minnesota and south dakota borders.

As the wave moves east on Thursday, it will leave behind low level
moisture. There is still be some isentropic lift but the air mass
at mid levels is gradually drying out in all models and with the
lack of an upper level wave to enhance lift expect that there will
not be enough lift to get saturation above 700 mb by Thursday
afternoon. There will be still be low level moisture. So expecting
that the more significant rainfall will gradually move northeast
Thursday morning and leave either some very light rain or even
just drizzle along and east of i-29. West of i-29, skies will
clear through the day. So while portions of northwest iowa and
southwest minnesota struggle to reach 50, south central south
dakota will reach the lower 60s.

The threat of rain will gradually end Thursday night. With skies
clearing on Friday and warmer air moving in, highs will range from
the mid 50s near high 71 in mn and ia to the lower 60s west of
i-29.

After Friday, both the ECMWF and GFS show a series of short waves
moving southeastward from southern canada and across minnesota.

The strength and timing of these waves remain very uncertain and
with limited moisture, any precipitation chances would be confined
to areas near the track of the upper low. Therefore, confidence is
low as to the timing and location of any precipitation. In
general, precipitation should be primarily rain - even if it falls
at night - although a few flakes of snow could be seen at the very
end. With clouds and repeated chances of rain, highs this weekend
and into early next week will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 610 am cdt Tue oct 23 2018
vfr conditions are expected through 12z Wednesday.

Fsd watches warnings advisories
Sd... None.

Mn... None.

Ia... None.

Ne... None.

Short term... Schumacher
long term... Schumacher
aviation... Schumacher


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherokee, Cherokee Municipal Airport, IA10 mi70 minN 010.00 miFair36°F32°F87%1030.5 hPa
Storm Lake, IA11 mi70 minNNE 410.00 miFair39°F30°F70%1029.8 hPa

Wind History from CKP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4NW4N4NW6NW7NW6W7W5CalmNW5NE3CalmCalmNE5NE3CalmCalmCalmNE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoSW11
G15
SW18
G27
SW16
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SW12
G17
W11SW10
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SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoN17
G25
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N15
G22
N15
G23
N12
G18
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G18
N10N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4S5S3S7S10S9S11S12
G21

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Sioux Falls, SD (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Des Moines, IA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.