Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Aurelia, IA
May 19, 2024 4:15 PM CDT (21:15 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:57 AM Sunset 8:46 PM Moonrise 4:01 PM Moonset 2:57 AM |
Area Discussion for - Sioux Falls, SD
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FXUS63 KFSD 191938 AFDFSD
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 238 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue through the afternoon and early evening.
- Greater risks for convection arrive by mid-late evening as a linear cluster of storms moves in from the west and additional storms form over the heart of the Tri-State area. Severe weather risks remain low, but not impossible.
- Most of the daytime hours of Monday will stay dry in the region, with temperatures warming into the 70s.
- Confidence remains high for widespread heavy rain potential Monday night through Tuesday. Probabilities for 1" of rain top 90% in most locations, with a more narrowed area of potential for 2+" of rain over 50% in the 24 hour period ending early Wednesday. We'll need to monitor for potential flood impacts.
- Slightly cooler and continued unsettled conditions into next weekend, with only a low end risk for a strong storm around Friday.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 234 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
THIS AFTERNOON: Two distinct vorticity centers continue to move through the Tri-State area at mid-afternoon. One is moving into southern Minnesota with a second crossing eastern Nebraska.
Fairly widespread upper cloud cover continues to cool temperatures east of I-29. Further west, VWP continue to show a modest warm advection profile in the low levels, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continuing on the LLJ west of I-29. Short range models have struggled picking this activity up, but with the waves traveling eastward into the late afternoon, I could see this activity also continuing to slide east with the low-lvl wind field.
TONIGHT: Convection already forming over western South Dakota and Nebraska this afternoon within a corridor of 2000 J/KG MLCAPE within a narrow tongue of mid-50 dew points. This convection will roll eastward initially and then northeast, potentially reaching the Missouri River by mid evening. Instability will be growing in the far western zones this afternoon, but a rapid dropoff in dew points further east, the extend of surface based instability is only 800- 1000 J/KG near our border. This activity is likely to become elevated as it moves into the CWA along a northeast track. Some smaller hail and perhaps marginal strong wind gusts may be possible up to the James River, but feel this risk is lower. Further east, once the LLJ begins to increase towards 03Z, we should begin to see a ramp up in elevated showers and scattered thunderstorms throughout the Tri_State areas. Again, any severe weather risk would be marginal hail, but lifting off the 700 mb layer only results in 500- 700 J/KG MUCAPE. Eventually all of this activity slides east after midnight, with a variable wind potentially leading to stratus/fog development.
MONDAY: A surface front slides southeast through the CWA early Monday morning settling into portions of eastern Nebraska and Northwest Iowa in the afternoon. We should be dealing with quite a bit of subsidence through the day that would hold off any convection, and soundings show a stout EML over-top the front in Iowa and Nebraska through the afternoon. But, given pesky southwest flow can never rule out some elevated convection forming in the afternoon. Highs are likely to climb into the 70s, but will be dependent on cloud cover.
MONDAY NIGHT: Heights will begin falling quickly Monday afternoon in response to deeper troughing entering the Rockies. Strong elevated moisture transport will begin to arrive through the evening, pushing PWAT values towards 200% of normal by Tuesday morning. There remains a bit of uncertainty as far as how quickly deeper synoptic lift will begin to slide over the area. Faster solutions suggest the potential for scattered strong to severe convection along the surface frontal boundary in Nebraska and Iowa in the evening, within a pool of 1000-2000 J/KG MLCAPE. Slower solutions however hold off on developing convection until nearly midnight or later still bringing a risk for elevated strong to severe convection with hail as the primary threat along a line from Yankton to Marshall and southeast. Some CAMS are suggesting a stronger MCS may form over western Nebraska and Kansas and slide northeast into northwest Iowa by daybreak Tuesday. If the boundary layer remains loosely stable, then some wind gusts could translate northward.
TUESDAY: More concerning however will be the deepening of a surface and upper low early Tuesday with MSLP charts suggesting the 993mb low over eastern Nebraska may be sitting below the 10th percentile of climatology for mid-May. The deep synoptic lift and westward advection of moisture over the elevated front on the western side of the upper trough should be sufficient to produce extensive rainfall. Rainfall development and deepening of the upper trough will be even further supported by the potential double jet structure forming Tuesday afternoon. A mixture of moderate stratiform rain with embedded thunderstorms could produce rapid rainfall of 2-4" from south central South Dakota into western Minnesota by Tuesday evening. Timing of all these features will be critical to the forecast, as any slowdown could place portions of the southeastern CWA into a higher risk for surface based convection Tuesday afternoon
Ensembles have made only slight changes to the locations of the heaviest potential rainfall through Tuesday. Still suggesting widespread 1"+ amounts, but a stronger likelihood of a narrow corridor of 2-4" from south central South Dakota into West Central Minnesota. While a good portion of the CWA can handle this rainfall, a glance at river forecast QPF ensemble projections suggests that 2-3" of rainfall will lead to river rises nearly everywhere, but basins such as the Big Sioux (mainly south of Sioux Falls) could see very minor flooding, with the Little Sioux and Ocheyedan River more heavily impacted.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY: We'll have at least one or two "drier" days for Wednesday and Thursday. Some wrap around light showers may be possible Wednesday within the cooler airmass regime that slides into the area. However by Thursday we should have enough mid-lvl ridging to completely dry out. This will be a short dry spell, as medium range guidance provide moderate confidence in another trough moving through the Plains late in the week. There is a bit more uncertainty on if moisture (especially at the surface) can return in time for any severe weather threat. However rain risks have trended upwards further with at least a 50% probability of 0.50" of rain in the ensemble world. Temperatures should return to near to slightly above normal levels.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1152 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024
Scattered showers continue to move through portions of the Tri- state area this morning, one area tied to a departing shortwave, and a second area developed on a low level jet. A few showers may continue to move eastward this afternoon as the jet veers in direction more to the southwest. For most, VFR conditions will continue with a gusty southeast wind up to 30 mph.
More uncertainty develops later this evening as a cluster of convection may slide eastward out of western South Dakota.
Additional scattered activity may form later this evening closer to the Tri-state area as the LLJ increases once again.
However, most guidance supports all of this activity moving east of I-29 by 6Z and out of the CWA by 06z. Behind this convection, a period of lower stratus may be possible into Monday morning.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 238 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue through the afternoon and early evening.
- Greater risks for convection arrive by mid-late evening as a linear cluster of storms moves in from the west and additional storms form over the heart of the Tri-State area. Severe weather risks remain low, but not impossible.
- Most of the daytime hours of Monday will stay dry in the region, with temperatures warming into the 70s.
- Confidence remains high for widespread heavy rain potential Monday night through Tuesday. Probabilities for 1" of rain top 90% in most locations, with a more narrowed area of potential for 2+" of rain over 50% in the 24 hour period ending early Wednesday. We'll need to monitor for potential flood impacts.
- Slightly cooler and continued unsettled conditions into next weekend, with only a low end risk for a strong storm around Friday.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 234 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
THIS AFTERNOON: Two distinct vorticity centers continue to move through the Tri-State area at mid-afternoon. One is moving into southern Minnesota with a second crossing eastern Nebraska.
Fairly widespread upper cloud cover continues to cool temperatures east of I-29. Further west, VWP continue to show a modest warm advection profile in the low levels, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continuing on the LLJ west of I-29. Short range models have struggled picking this activity up, but with the waves traveling eastward into the late afternoon, I could see this activity also continuing to slide east with the low-lvl wind field.
TONIGHT: Convection already forming over western South Dakota and Nebraska this afternoon within a corridor of 2000 J/KG MLCAPE within a narrow tongue of mid-50 dew points. This convection will roll eastward initially and then northeast, potentially reaching the Missouri River by mid evening. Instability will be growing in the far western zones this afternoon, but a rapid dropoff in dew points further east, the extend of surface based instability is only 800- 1000 J/KG near our border. This activity is likely to become elevated as it moves into the CWA along a northeast track. Some smaller hail and perhaps marginal strong wind gusts may be possible up to the James River, but feel this risk is lower. Further east, once the LLJ begins to increase towards 03Z, we should begin to see a ramp up in elevated showers and scattered thunderstorms throughout the Tri_State areas. Again, any severe weather risk would be marginal hail, but lifting off the 700 mb layer only results in 500- 700 J/KG MUCAPE. Eventually all of this activity slides east after midnight, with a variable wind potentially leading to stratus/fog development.
MONDAY: A surface front slides southeast through the CWA early Monday morning settling into portions of eastern Nebraska and Northwest Iowa in the afternoon. We should be dealing with quite a bit of subsidence through the day that would hold off any convection, and soundings show a stout EML over-top the front in Iowa and Nebraska through the afternoon. But, given pesky southwest flow can never rule out some elevated convection forming in the afternoon. Highs are likely to climb into the 70s, but will be dependent on cloud cover.
MONDAY NIGHT: Heights will begin falling quickly Monday afternoon in response to deeper troughing entering the Rockies. Strong elevated moisture transport will begin to arrive through the evening, pushing PWAT values towards 200% of normal by Tuesday morning. There remains a bit of uncertainty as far as how quickly deeper synoptic lift will begin to slide over the area. Faster solutions suggest the potential for scattered strong to severe convection along the surface frontal boundary in Nebraska and Iowa in the evening, within a pool of 1000-2000 J/KG MLCAPE. Slower solutions however hold off on developing convection until nearly midnight or later still bringing a risk for elevated strong to severe convection with hail as the primary threat along a line from Yankton to Marshall and southeast. Some CAMS are suggesting a stronger MCS may form over western Nebraska and Kansas and slide northeast into northwest Iowa by daybreak Tuesday. If the boundary layer remains loosely stable, then some wind gusts could translate northward.
TUESDAY: More concerning however will be the deepening of a surface and upper low early Tuesday with MSLP charts suggesting the 993mb low over eastern Nebraska may be sitting below the 10th percentile of climatology for mid-May. The deep synoptic lift and westward advection of moisture over the elevated front on the western side of the upper trough should be sufficient to produce extensive rainfall. Rainfall development and deepening of the upper trough will be even further supported by the potential double jet structure forming Tuesday afternoon. A mixture of moderate stratiform rain with embedded thunderstorms could produce rapid rainfall of 2-4" from south central South Dakota into western Minnesota by Tuesday evening. Timing of all these features will be critical to the forecast, as any slowdown could place portions of the southeastern CWA into a higher risk for surface based convection Tuesday afternoon
Ensembles have made only slight changes to the locations of the heaviest potential rainfall through Tuesday. Still suggesting widespread 1"+ amounts, but a stronger likelihood of a narrow corridor of 2-4" from south central South Dakota into West Central Minnesota. While a good portion of the CWA can handle this rainfall, a glance at river forecast QPF ensemble projections suggests that 2-3" of rainfall will lead to river rises nearly everywhere, but basins such as the Big Sioux (mainly south of Sioux Falls) could see very minor flooding, with the Little Sioux and Ocheyedan River more heavily impacted.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY: We'll have at least one or two "drier" days for Wednesday and Thursday. Some wrap around light showers may be possible Wednesday within the cooler airmass regime that slides into the area. However by Thursday we should have enough mid-lvl ridging to completely dry out. This will be a short dry spell, as medium range guidance provide moderate confidence in another trough moving through the Plains late in the week. There is a bit more uncertainty on if moisture (especially at the surface) can return in time for any severe weather threat. However rain risks have trended upwards further with at least a 50% probability of 0.50" of rain in the ensemble world. Temperatures should return to near to slightly above normal levels.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1152 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024
Scattered showers continue to move through portions of the Tri- state area this morning, one area tied to a departing shortwave, and a second area developed on a low level jet. A few showers may continue to move eastward this afternoon as the jet veers in direction more to the southwest. For most, VFR conditions will continue with a gusty southeast wind up to 30 mph.
More uncertainty develops later this evening as a cluster of convection may slide eastward out of western South Dakota.
Additional scattered activity may form later this evening closer to the Tri-state area as the LLJ increases once again.
However, most guidance supports all of this activity moving east of I-29 by 6Z and out of the CWA by 06z. Behind this convection, a period of lower stratus may be possible into Monday morning.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KSLB STORM LAKE MUNI,IA | 11 sm | 20 min | SE 14 | 10 sm | Clear | 64°F | 50°F | 60% | 29.88 |
Des Moines, IA,
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