Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Saugatuck, MI
March 19, 2024 4:41 AM EDT (08:41 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:46 AM Sunset 7:57 PM Moonrise 1:24 PM Moonset 4:36 AM |
LMZ874 Expires:202403191515;;996039 Fzus63 Kmkx 190825 Glflm
open lake forecast for lake michigan national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi 325 am cdt Tue mar 19 2024
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan.
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
Synopsis -
gusty southwest winds are expected early today, becoming west to northwest later today as low pressure of 29.4 inches passes by just to the north of lake michigan. A period of gale force winds is still expected this morning in the south ahead of the cold front. Winds could then briefly reach gale force in the north late tonight into early Wednesday behind the front. Winds will then diminish later Wednesday into Thursday as high pressure of 30.4 inches moves into the area. East to southeast winds will then pick up late in the week ahead of an approaching low.
lmz080-671-673-675-777-779-872-874-876-878-191515- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 325 am cdt Tue mar 19 2024
port washington wi to whitehall mi south - .
.gale warning in effect until 1 pm cdt this afternoon - .
Today - Southwest gales to 35 kt becoming west to 30 kt. Waves 7 to 10 ft occasionally to 13 ft building to 8 to 12 ft occasionally to 16 ft, then subsiding to 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
Tonight - Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt increasing to 30 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft building to 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
Wednesday - Northwest winds to 30 kt diminishing to 15 to 25 kt. Waves 7 to 10 ft occasionally to 13 ft subsiding to 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft.
Wednesday night - Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt becoming north 10 to 20 kt. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft subsiding to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Thursday - North winds 10 to 15 kt becoming northeast. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Thursday night - East winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southeast 10 to 20 kt. Snow likely. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Friday - Southeast winds 15 to 25 kt. Snow likely. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Saturday - North winds to 30 kt diminishing to 15 to 25 kt. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
open lake forecast for lake michigan national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi 325 am cdt Tue mar 19 2024
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan.
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
gusty southwest winds are expected early today, becoming west to northwest later today as low pressure of 29.4 inches passes by just to the north of lake michigan. A period of gale force winds is still expected this morning in the south ahead of the cold front. Winds could then briefly reach gale force in the north late tonight into early Wednesday behind the front. Winds will then diminish later Wednesday into Thursday as high pressure of 30.4 inches moves into the area. East to southeast winds will then pick up late in the week ahead of an approaching low.
lmz080-671-673-675-777-779-872-874-876-878-191515- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 325 am cdt Tue mar 19 2024
port washington wi to whitehall mi south - .
LMZ800
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Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 190738 AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 338 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Small chances of snow North today and Wednesday
- Medium to High Confidence for Snow/Mix Late Week
- Low Confidence on Storminess early Next Week
DISCUSSION
Issued at 338 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
- Small chances of snow North today and Wednesday
The couple of chances of snow up North that we will see today, and then again Wednesday, will be associated with a couple of different short waves brushing the area. The circumstances will be far from ideal with each of the waves to bring much more than a couple of tenths of an inch across the North.
The first wave approaching the area today is coming in from the WNW.
The first thing going against much precipitation from this wave is it is expected to shear out as it drops through the area today. In addition, deep moisture is never really in place. We initially had some low level moisture that is making its way out currently. By the time the mid/upper level moisture lowers enough, there is no low level moisture to help it reach the ground. The best chance where these layers of moisture will overlap enough to get some snow at the sfc will be across the U.S.-10 corridor this morning.
The snow chances then end this afternoon as the wave and moisture moves by, leaving some short wave ridging in place. Then later tonight into Wednesday, we will see the next short wave approach the area from the NW. This wave will remain intact and even strengthen a bit as it approaches. The problem with this wave for precipitation chances is that the track of it just barely brushes our northern counties again. Moisture is once again limited for most of the area, with just a thin layer up around 4-5k ft, and no real depth in our area.
- Medium to High Confidence for Snow/Mix Late Week
Upper troughing will extend south into the Great Lakes from the polar vortex across Hudson Bay by Thursday. An area of snow blossoms in a baroclinic zone across the NW CONUS/SW Canada on Wednesday and moves southeast along the arctic front, arriving in Lower Michigan by late Thursday night into Friday. Models are converging on the evolution of a sfc wave forming along the front, leading to higher confidence in the chances for some measurable snow. The surface low is progged to shear out and weaken, becoming an open wave by Friday with snow and mixed precip diminishing, but it appears that the timing of the snow will impact travel for the morning commute.
- Low Confidence on Storminess early Next Week
Western CONUS troughing amplifies and goes negative tilt early next week and a surface cyclone will evolve over the Plains. Ensemble spread is significant on the details of how this evolves. The current forecast is most reflective of the GFS with a less highly amplified solution and snow arriving on Sunday, changing to rain on Monday. The more amplified, blocky solutions of the ECMWF and GEM would hold off precip until Monday or Tuesday.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 147 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
VFR conditions will continue through Wednesday evening. Stratus deck will prevail with bases around 3500 to 5000 feet AGL this morning. West winds will gust over 20 kts this morning then go northwest in the afternoon.
MARINE
Issued at 338 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
We will be holding on to the Small Craft Advisory, and extending it yet again through Wednesday night.
We did give some consideration to upgrading to a Gale for today, but ultimately decided that the it is a marginal situation for too short of a duration.
Winds will diminish slightly tonight as one core of wind moves out, and then another will move in on Wednesday. We could be flirting with Gales once again, but the situation looks even less favorable than the marginal scenario today. Winds will finally diminish Wednesday night, with waves falling below criteria by Thursday at 12z.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ844>849.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 338 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Small chances of snow North today and Wednesday
- Medium to High Confidence for Snow/Mix Late Week
- Low Confidence on Storminess early Next Week
DISCUSSION
Issued at 338 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
- Small chances of snow North today and Wednesday
The couple of chances of snow up North that we will see today, and then again Wednesday, will be associated with a couple of different short waves brushing the area. The circumstances will be far from ideal with each of the waves to bring much more than a couple of tenths of an inch across the North.
The first wave approaching the area today is coming in from the WNW.
The first thing going against much precipitation from this wave is it is expected to shear out as it drops through the area today. In addition, deep moisture is never really in place. We initially had some low level moisture that is making its way out currently. By the time the mid/upper level moisture lowers enough, there is no low level moisture to help it reach the ground. The best chance where these layers of moisture will overlap enough to get some snow at the sfc will be across the U.S.-10 corridor this morning.
The snow chances then end this afternoon as the wave and moisture moves by, leaving some short wave ridging in place. Then later tonight into Wednesday, we will see the next short wave approach the area from the NW. This wave will remain intact and even strengthen a bit as it approaches. The problem with this wave for precipitation chances is that the track of it just barely brushes our northern counties again. Moisture is once again limited for most of the area, with just a thin layer up around 4-5k ft, and no real depth in our area.
- Medium to High Confidence for Snow/Mix Late Week
Upper troughing will extend south into the Great Lakes from the polar vortex across Hudson Bay by Thursday. An area of snow blossoms in a baroclinic zone across the NW CONUS/SW Canada on Wednesday and moves southeast along the arctic front, arriving in Lower Michigan by late Thursday night into Friday. Models are converging on the evolution of a sfc wave forming along the front, leading to higher confidence in the chances for some measurable snow. The surface low is progged to shear out and weaken, becoming an open wave by Friday with snow and mixed precip diminishing, but it appears that the timing of the snow will impact travel for the morning commute.
- Low Confidence on Storminess early Next Week
Western CONUS troughing amplifies and goes negative tilt early next week and a surface cyclone will evolve over the Plains. Ensemble spread is significant on the details of how this evolves. The current forecast is most reflective of the GFS with a less highly amplified solution and snow arriving on Sunday, changing to rain on Monday. The more amplified, blocky solutions of the ECMWF and GEM would hold off precip until Monday or Tuesday.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 147 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
VFR conditions will continue through Wednesday evening. Stratus deck will prevail with bases around 3500 to 5000 feet AGL this morning. West winds will gust over 20 kts this morning then go northwest in the afternoon.
MARINE
Issued at 338 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
We will be holding on to the Small Craft Advisory, and extending it yet again through Wednesday night.
We did give some consideration to upgrading to a Gale for today, but ultimately decided that the it is a marginal situation for too short of a duration.
Winds will diminish slightly tonight as one core of wind moves out, and then another will move in on Wednesday. We could be flirting with Gales once again, but the situation looks even less favorable than the marginal scenario today. Winds will finally diminish Wednesday night, with waves falling below criteria by Thursday at 12z.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ844>849.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI | 23 mi | 53 min | WSW 25G | 36°F | 43°F | 29.86 | 16°F | |
45214 | 24 mi | 71 min | 40°F | 5 ft | ||||
45161 | 28 mi | 31 min | 6 ft | |||||
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI | 31 mi | 31 min | W 25G | 31°F | 29.87 | 28°F | ||
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI | 35 mi | 41 min | SW 26G | 35°F |
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Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI,
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