Wednesday, September20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Saugatuck, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:29AMSunset 7:45PM Wednesday September 20, 2017 12:24 PM EDT (16:24 UTC) Moonrise 6:48AMMoonset 7:21PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ874 Lake Michigan From Michigan City In To St. Joseph Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Sheboygan To Port Washington Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Port Washington To North Point Light Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From North Point Light To Wind Point Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wilmette Harbor Il To Michigan City In 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Whitehall To Pentwater Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Grand Haven To Whitehall Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Holland To Grand Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From South Haven To Holland Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From St. Joseph To South Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 833 Am Cdt Wed Sep 20 2017 Sheboygan Wi To Pentwater Mi South...
Rest of today..Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt increasing to 15 to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 3 to 5 ft from early afternoon on.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 20 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening...then chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southeast. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Thursday night..South winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Friday..South winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Friday night..Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt becoming south. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sunday..South winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southeast. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
LMZ874 Expires:201709202130;;666263 FZUS63 KLOT 201333 GLFLM OPEN LAKE FORECAST for Lake Michigan National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 833 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON Lake Michigan. Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. .SYNOPSIS...A high pressure ridge averaging 30.0 inches will remain over the eastern U.S. through early next week. The 29.3 inch low over Saskatchewan will deepen to 29.1 inches and then weaken as it reaches Hudson Bay Friday. High pressure of 29.9 inches will form over the central Plains this afternoon and pass over Lake Superior tonight. A trough of low pressure averaging 29.7 inches will stretch from the northern Mississippi Valley through the southern Plains Friday. The trough will remain stationary and gradually weaken through early next week. LMZ080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-202130-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saugatuck, MI
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location: 42.84, -86.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 201137
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
737 am edt Wed sep 20 2017
latest update...

aviation

Synopsis
Issued at 244 am edt Wed sep 20 2017
a weak area of high pressure will track through the region today
providing the area with mainly dry conditions after a foggy start.

Tonight a cold front will be weakening as it tracks in from the
northwest. This feature will dissipate over the area on Thursday.

It will become increasingly moist so a few showers or
thunderstorms may occur. Summerlike conditions are expected for
the end of the week.

Short term (today through Friday)
issued at 244 am edt Wed sep 20 2017
fog status will prevail around the region to start the day. The
fog should thicken up somewhat as we go toward daybreak. At this
time the cloud cover that is in place appears to the limiting the
coverage of dense fog. So will not go with a headline at this
time. There were a few light rain showers in the eastern zones
around mount pleasant. Will hold onto a low risk for showers to
start the morning there.

Tonight the cold front that featured an active line of storms
yesterday in the upper plains... Will be moving into michigan from
the northwest. This feature will be weakening with time and is
expected to dissipate over the area on Thursday. What it does do
is draw in increasing amounts of moisture with pwat values close
to 1.75 inches. So it may very well feel muggy. The low level
thermal ridge folds in as well. High temperatures will be topping
out in the mid to upper 80s Thursday and Friday. The atmosphere
each day will become quite unstable as well. Deep layer shear will
be weak so any storms should be pulse in nature. With the
boundary of the dissipating front still around on Thursday will go
with a risk for thunderstorms. Will keep it dry for Friday with no
real focusing mechanism around along with the main axis of
moisture shifting north of the CWA resulting in falling pwat
values.

Long term (Friday night through Tuesday)
issued at 244 am edt Wed sep 20 2017
a dome of high pressure will create mid summer-like conditions this
weekend across lower michigan. Highs in the mid to upper 80s coupled
with dewpoints in the mid 60s will feel hot and humid.

We're running with a dry forecast through the period too. The
exception to that is next Tuesday afternoon. Both the ECMWF and gfs
show a strong short wave ejecting out of the western us trough and
pushing the northern portion of the great lakes ridge eastward. This
allows a cold front to move close to lake michigan Tuesday. We'll
continue with a slight chance of showers storms Tuesday afternoon
across the northwest cwa. The higher chance of pcpn will come
Tuesday night if current model trends hold.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Thursday morning)
issued at 733 am edt Wed sep 20 2017
ifr and lower impacts will continue for most TAF sites for a few
hours this morning. As the temperature starts to warm
up... Conditions will slowly improve withVFR expected to prevail
this afternoon.

Tonight the moisture increases and this could lead to some
thunderstorms around. The risk should first arrive at kmkg. I
added vcts to the forecast there tonight. The potential then build
slowly southeast through the night... However there is less
confidence of storms the further we go through the night.

Marine
Issued at 244 am edt Wed sep 20 2017
the easterly surface winds will veer today and tonight as a
weakening cold front nears. This system will dissipate over the
area on Thursday. The combination of offshore flow and a
relatively weak pressure gradient will act to keep the wave
heights low today. Tonight and Thursday the pressure gradient will
be weakening. So despite an increasing fetch... The warm air
advection and weakening front will support only low wave heights.

Hydrology
Issued at 330 pm edt Tue sep 19 2017
rainfall this morning was fairly light and occurred south of a line
from holland to lansing. Most rainfall totals were under 0.10
inches, but a few locations did pick up more than 0.25 inches.

Weakening low pressure tracking south of the area will continue to
provide a chance for showers south of i-96 today. Rainfall this
afternoon and evening will be even more hit and miss than this
morning. A few locations in ingham, jackson, and calhoun counties
could pick up more than a tenth of an inch of new rainfall, however.

A weak frontal boundary will provide the next chance for showers or
a thunderstorm Wednesday night into Thursday. High confidence then
exists with very warm and dry conditions late Friday through the
weekend.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... None.

Synopsis... Mjs
short term... Mjs
long term... 04
aviation... Mjs
hydrology... Hlo
marine... Mjs


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45029 19 mi35 min S 3.9 G 5.8 70°F 68°F1 ft1014 hPa63°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 23 mi55 min SSE 6 G 9.9 73°F 1013.9 hPa
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 24 mi95 min E 16 G 18 66°F 68°F2 ft1013.5 hPa (-0.4)
45161 28 mi45 min 1 ft
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 31 mi35 min S 7 G 9.9 76°F 1013.5 hPa66°F
45168 34 mi35 min SE 7.8 G 9.7 72°F 68°F1 ft1013.9 hPa64°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 35 mi45 min ESE 8.9 G 12 74°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 52 mi85 min S 1.9 G 6 72°F 1015.2 hPa (-0.4)

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Holland - West Michigan Regional Airport, MI29 mi32 minSSE 810.00 miFair79°F64°F60%1014.3 hPa

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Last 24hrE10E9E10E73E6E7E5E4E3E5CalmE3E4E5SE4CalmCalmSE3SE6S7SE6S8S8
1 day agoE5Calm--S3NW9NW5NW5CalmCalmCalmCalmE4E5E6E6E7E7E5E6E6E6E7E6E9
2 days agoSW11SW6W10W7NW5NW7NW64CalmNW7NW6N4NW3NW3N3CalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmE6E6NE4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.