Sunday, June25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Saugatuck, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:06AMSunset 9:28PM Sunday June 25, 2017 11:36 PM EDT (03:36 UTC) Moonrise 6:59AMMoonset 9:55PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ874 Lake Michigan From Michigan City In To St. Joseph Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Sheboygan To Port Washington Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Port Washington To North Point Light Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From North Point Light To Wind Point Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wilmette Harbor Il To Michigan City In 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Whitehall To Pentwater Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Grand Haven To Whitehall Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Holland To Grand Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From South Haven To Holland Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From St. Joseph To South Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 855 Pm Cdt Sun Jun 25 2017 Sheboygan Wi To Pentwater Mi South...
Tonight..West winds 15 to 25 kt. Scattered showers this evening. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft from late evening on.
Monday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt. Isolated showers in the morning...then isolated showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Monday night..Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft overnight.
Tuesday..West winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southwest 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Wednesday..South winds to 30 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft building to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds to 30 kt. Showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft in the afternoon.
Friday..East winds 10 to 20 kt becoming northeast. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
LMZ874 Expires:201706260915;;824810 FZUS63 KLOT 260155 GLFLM OPEN LAKE FORECAST for Lake Michigan National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 855 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON Lake Michigan. Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure of 30.3 inches extending from the northern to the central Plains and lower Ohio Valley will remain in this position tonight into Monday while weak low pressure of 29.9 inches moves across the northern Great Lakes. A trailing cold front from the low will move across Lake Michigan tonight. The surface ridge axis will lift north to the southern portion of the lake on Tuesday and then shift east, with the center of the high moving across the Ohio Valley. Low pressure of 29.4 inches will develop across the northern plains by Tuesday evening and will track over the northern portion of the lake on Wednesday night or Thursday morning. The low will weaken north of the Great Lakes late in the week. LMZ080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-260915-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saugatuck, MI
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location: 42.84, -86.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 260107
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
907 pm edt Sun jun 25 2017
latest update...

update

Synopsis
Issued at 319 pm edt Sun jun 25 2017
more cool and showery weather will be likely through Monday evening
as an expansive area of low pressure sits over the region and brings
weak waves to the area. Much of the period at any one location will
not be raining. The chance will remain at all times through Monday
evening, especially in the afternoon and early evening hours.

Temperatures will warm back up a bit then Tuesday and Wednesday as
the system moves out of the area. The warmer temperatures will be
accompanied by occasional threats for more widespread showers and
storms from late Wednesday into next weekend.

Update
Issued at 907 pm edt Sun jun 25 2017
based on radar trends and the consistent forecasts for rain
showers as the next upstream shortwave moves through the area i
increased to pop to likely across the area tonight, from west to
east, with the movement of the shortwave. Rainfall amounts should
mostly be less than a tenth of an inch. Instability for the most
part is marginal for thunderstorms but I do have them possible
near the lake shore as the water is warmer than the air, which is
odd in late june but it is none the less true.

Short term (this evening through Tuesday night)
issued at 319 pm edt Sun jun 25 2017
our main focus in the short term is on the continued shower storm
chances through Monday night as the upper low continues to spin over
the region and send down short waves through the area. The weather
looks fairly quiet through the rest of the short term after the
system should move out Monday night.

Plenty of diurnal cloud cover away from lake michigan, with showers
north of i-96 this afternoon so far. A sfc trough is dropping south
through the area with a few showers along it. We expect a few storms
will become possible from now through mid-evening with enough sfc
based instability available to justify the mention. Severe weather
is not expected, but some pea-sized hail and cold air funnels will
be possible.

The coldest of the air aloft will come in later tonight and linger
through Mon evening. This will spell more of the same as the past
couple of days, but bring lake effect enhancement into play. The air
will be cold enough to bring delta t's up to around 13-15c. This
could enhance some of the showers along the lakeshore. Forecast
soundings show thunder could remain possible over the lake with
eql's up well above the -20c isotherm and decent lake-induced cape.

Inland, the peak heating hours will bring the most showers. Thunder
threat inland does not look great with temps being held down in the
50s and 60.

We will finally see the upper jet lift NE of the area later mon
night as a strong wave moving through late Mon will finally take it
out of the area. We should dry up the shower chances, and finally
warm up some.

Long term (Wednesday through Sunday)
issued at 319 pm edt Sun jun 25 2017
the long term period is looking stormy. The main challenges deal
with the timing of the storms along with their impacts.

To start the period... A low level jet will be arriving from the
southwest Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. This is
associated with a mid level wave... Which will be pushing in from the
west. The combination of an unseasonably moist
airmass... Instability and lift will support a round or two of
thunderstorms. Mid level lapse rates are forecasted to steepen up
as we go through the night along with an increase in the deep layer
shear. All this suggests a risk for some severe weather. Locally
heavy rain is possible given the high pwat airmass that moves in.

For Thursday... There is some uncertainty as far as how far south the
cold front shifts. The front ends up becoming nearly parallel to the
mid level flow supporting the uncertainty. Will keep a risk for
storms going for now. The GFS keeps this boundary over the CWA and
shows and afternoon mid level wave moving in. That... Combined with
abundant instability would support some severe weather.

However... Considerable uncertainty exists on this setup.

Then for Friday into Saturday... A mid level low drops out of the
canadian prairies and into the great lakes region. That combined
with an unseasonably moist airmass supports additional storms... Some
of which could be severe. Heavy rain could occur as well. There
are model timing differences. The faster GFS would push the main
axis of storms and heavy rain off to the east by Saturday while the
high res euro shows the mid level low still to the west of lower
michigan on Saturday.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Monday evening)
issued at 742 pm edt Sun jun 25 2017
expect periods of showers overnight into Monday accompanied with
MVFR CIGS near and west of us-131. That is the result of shortwaves
continuing to rotate around the upper level system stalled over
the great lakes. The coldest air at mid levels moves through the
western great lakes Monday. Model forecast temperature near 850 mb
are forecast to be near or below record low levels (spc dtx
sounding history page) for this time of year. In fact the air will
be cold enough for lake enhanced clouds and showers so I have
vcsh and MVFR CIGS at both grr and mkg overnight into mid morning
Monday. Most of the other TAF sites also have vcsh overnight into
Monday afternoon. Like the past few days it will continue to be
windy during the day time hours too.VFR CIGS vsbys should
prevail at all TAF sites by Monday afternoon. There is marginally
enough instability for thunderstorms tonight and Monday, however
at this point the threat did not seem high enough to include that
in the TAF forecasts.

Marine
Issued at 319 pm edt Sun jun 25 2017
no change needed to the marine headlines after the earlier
expansion. Winds will come down slightly for a little bit this
evening, before coming back up overnight with the next wave. Winds
will stay up in the small craft beach hazards category through mon
evening before dropping off.

We will see temps drop off enough aloft combined with the relatively
warmer waters of lake michigan to bring a waterspout threat
beginning overnight tonight, and lasting through Monday evening.

Hydrology
Issued at 319 pm edt Sun jun 25 2017
rain heavy enough to affect river levels is not expected until
Wednesday afternoon at the earliest. This will allow river levels to
fall the next few days. We will enter a potentially wet period from
Wednesday afternoon into the weekend.

At this point it looks like heavy rain and thunderstorms will be
mostly likely Wednesday evening into Thursday morning and again
Friday morning into the evening. The combination of these two events
could produce amounts over 3 to 4 inches in some areas. We will
continue to monitor forecast trends over the next few days for
specifics on amounts and locations where the heavier rain is
expected.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... Beach hazards statement through Monday evening for miz037-043-
050-056-064-071.

Lm... Small craft advisory until midnight edt Monday night for
lmz844>849.

Update... Wdm
synopsis... Njj
short term... Njj
long term... Mjs
aviation... Wdm
hydrology... Ostuno
marine... Njj


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45029 19 mi26 min WNW 14 G 18 64°F 68°F2 ft1017.3 hPa54°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 23 mi48 min W 14 G 17 65°F 1017.1 hPa
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 24 mi106 min NW 14 G 16 63°F 62°F2 ft1017.7 hPa (+0.5)55°F
45161 28 mi36 min NW 7.8 G 9.7 61°F 65°F2 ft1017.2 hPa (-0.0)
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 31 mi36 min N 2.9 G 4.1 60°F 1017.5 hPa (+0.6)53°F
45168 34 mi26 min WNW 16 G 19 65°F 68°F3 ft1017.9 hPa53°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 35 mi36 min W 17 G 21 65°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Holland - West Michigan Regional Airport, MI29 mi43 minW 810.00 miMostly Cloudy63°F52°F68%1017.7 hPa

Wind History from BIV (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNW5NW5NW8W6NW8W8NW7NW6NW7NW10NW9NW11W9W7
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2 days agoSW12
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.