Monday, January22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Saugatuck, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 8:05AMSunset 5:46PM Monday January 22, 2018 5:17 AM EST (10:17 UTC) Moonrise 11:11AMMoonset 11:28PM Illumination 31% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ874 Lake Michigan From Michigan City In To St. Joseph Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Sheboygan To Port Washington Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Port Washington To North Point Light Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From North Point Light To Wind Point Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wilmette Harbor Il To Michigan City In 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Pentwater To Manistee Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Whitehall To Pentwater Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Grand Haven To Whitehall Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Holland To Grand Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From South Haven To Holland Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From St. Joseph To South Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 230 Am Cst Mon Jan 22 2018 Two Rivers Wi To Manistee Mi South...
.dense fog advisory in effect until 9 pm cst this evening...
.gale warning in effect from late tonight through Tuesday afternoon...
Today..East winds 15 to 25 kt increasing to 30 kt and then becoming southeast 15 to 25 kt. Areas of dense fog. Rain showers with a chance of Thunderstorms this morning... Then rain showers this afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 ft building to 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
Tonight..Southeast winds 15 to 20 kt becoming southwest 15 to 25 kt late in the evening...then becoming northwest gales to 35 kt late. Areas of dense fog in the evening. Rain showers likely with slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening...then rain and snow overnight. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft building to 8 to 12 ft occasionally to 16 ft late.
Tuesday..Northwest gales to 40 kt diminishing to gales to 35 kt. Chance of snow in the morning...then chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 10 to 14 ft occasionally to 18 ft subsiding to 8 to 11 ft occasionally to 14 ft.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt overnight. Waves 7 to 10 ft occasionally to 13 ft subsiding to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
Wednesday night..West winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southwest. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Friday..South winds to 30 kt. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
LMZ874 Expires:201801221645;;815945 FZUS63 KLOT 220830 GLFLM OPEN LAKE FORECAST for Lake Michigan National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 230 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON Lake Michigan. Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure of 29.4 inches over the Kansas City area early this morning will cross Lake Michigan tonight, then continue across southern Quebec Tuesday evening. A broad ridge of high pressure of 30.3 inches over the Plains Tuesday night will move across the western Great Lakes Wednesday and to the northeast U.S. on Friday, strengthening to 30.7 inches as it does so. Another low of 29.4 inches will develop in lee of the northern Rockies Thursday night, moving to near James Bay by Saturday morning. LMZ080-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-870-872-874-876-878-221645-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saugatuck, MI
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location: 42.84, -86.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 220818
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
318 am est Mon jan 22 2018
latest update...

synopsis short term long term

Synopsis
Issued at 304 am est Mon jan 22 2018
a storm system will track through the region today and into
tonight... Bringing rain and even a few thunderstorms to the area.

As the storm pulls away on Tuesday... Any remaining rain will
change to snow... Especially in the afternoon. An area of high
pressure will move in for the middle part of the week leading to
mostly dry weather.

Short term (today through Wednesday)
issued at 304 am est Mon jan 22 2018
models are in reasonable agreement in showing a deepening area of
low pressure tracking northeastward through the great lakes region
today and into tonight. This system will be rather dynamic with a
favorable coupled upper level jet. The combination of strong lift
and a very moist airmass with pwat values well over 200 percent
above normal will support widespread rain... Especially this
morning. There could even be a few thunderstorms as elevated
instability will advect in from the southwest this morning and is
then forecasted to persist for the afternoon. Will maintain the
high pops and show a northeastward progression of the thunderstorm
risk today. Will keep the dense fog advisory going til 7 am... And
may need to extend it depending on how the showers moving in
impacts the thicker fog.

A mid level dry slot moves in from the southwest this afternoon
and evening. Will lower the pops into the evening as a result.

There is still some uncertainty as to how quickly we transition
over to snow and how much precipitation will be around. The latest
trend supports a slower transition. Will trend the forecast this
way. There is still a risk for snow related impacts on
Tuesday... With the high res euro trying to lower surface
temperatures below freezing in the afternoon.

Long term (Wednesday night through Sunday)
issued at 304 am est Mon jan 22 2018
there may be a few snow showers along the lake shore at the start of
the long term, but they won't last long. H8 temps are marginal at
best and will begin to warm Wednesday night. A upper ridge will
quickly build into the great lakes and we'll see a couple of dry
days.

A cold front will move across the state Friday night. Dynamics with
this front are fairly weak as the supporting sfc low is well north
in ontario and the trailing upper trough if mostly diffuse. Moisture
pooling along the front may lead to some rain showers Friday night
and Saturday and a few rain showers associated with the upper trough
Saturday night into Sunday will mix with and then turn to light snow
showers as colder air flows in behind the departing cold front. This
system doesn't look like a big pcpn producer.

Friday and Saturday will be the warmest days when temperatures climb
into the 40s. Otherwise, highs will be in the mid 30s.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 1153 pm est Sun jan 21 2018
ifr conditions will persist through at least 20z for the southern
taf sites and much of the period for the northern sites. There
will be some wind shear below 2k ft from 18-22z, but likely not
greater than 30 knots so it was not included in the tafs. We could
see a thunderstorm toward morning near i-94 so a vcts was retained
at those TAF sites.

Hydrology
Issued at 214 pm est Sun jan 21 2018
a complete melting of the natural snowpack is expected by Monday
in the grand, kalamazoo, and muskegon river basins. This will
release a quarter to perhaps half inch of water. Rain totals on
Monday will mostly range between 0.6 and 1.2 inches (ecmwf and
ensemble have been consistently lower than GFS and ensemble).

Depth of frozen soil varies but overall expect the ground to
remain frozen enough to allow efficient runoff.

A number of river forecast points will likely rise above bankfull
in the upcoming week. There is a chance of minor flood stage being
reached at a few sites (of earliest concern are holt and eagle),
particularly if higher rainfall totals verify. A breakup of river
ice is expected, and any ice jams that form can cause
unpredictable fluctuations in water levels. Road closures are
possible in low spots near river banks. Water could also approach
buildings in flood prone areas.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... Dense fog advisory until 7 am est this morning for miz064>067-
071>074.

Lm... None.

Synopsis... Mjs
short term... Mjs
long term... 04
aviation... 04
hydrology... Cas


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 23 mi47 min E 11 G 14 1008.9 hPa
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 31 mi27 min E 12 G 15 37°F 1010.8 hPa37°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 35 mi37 min E 11 G 13 44°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 52 mi77 min ESE 1.9 G 5.1 46°F 1009.5 hPa (-2.7)

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Holland - West Michigan Regional Airport, MI29 mi24 minE 80.50 miFog39°F37°F96%1009.8 hPa

Wind History from BIV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE5S3CalmSE4SE4SE4S3E3E5CalmE3E5E5E6E6SE6E5E4E4E6E5E7E6E8
1 day agoSW12SW13SW9SW10SW10SW12SW10SW12SW10SW10SW8SW7SW4SW3S5S5S6S5S5S4S6S3S3SW3
2 days agoSW15
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.