Sunrise 6:29 AM   Sunset 8:52 PM Moonrise 4:35 AM   Moonset 6:28 PM

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LMZ874 Expires:202405070915;;755591 Fzus63 Kmkx 070144 Glflm
open lake forecast for lake michigan national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi 844 pm cdt Mon may 6 2024
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan.
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
Synopsis -
high pressure of 30.1 inches continues to influence the great lakes region tonight, with light northeasterly to easterly winds. Winds will increase and become southeasterly by Tuesday morning, mainly over the southern half of the lake, as low pressure of 29.0 inches across the great plains lifts towards the great lakes. Showers and Thunderstorms are expected across the open waters late Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon.
winds turn southwesterly Tuesday night as the low pressure moves eastward, before becoming northeasterly Wednesday afternoon as another area of low pressure of 29.5 inches lifts into illinois. Additional showers and Thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon into Thursday, mainly across the southern half of the lake, as the second area of low pressure moves eastward, into the ohio valley. High pressure then builds in briefly on Friday before another low pushes eastward across southern ontario this weekend.
lmz080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-070915- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 844 pm cdt Mon may 6 2024
sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south - .
Rest of tonight - Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southeast 10 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Tuesday - Southeast winds 15 to 25 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt. Rain showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of rain showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft. Tuesday night - South winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southwest. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft. Wednesday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt backing to southeast. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Wednesday night - Northeast winds 10 to 20 kt. Showers likely. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 3 to 5 ft. Thursday - Northeast winds to 30 kt becoming north. Showers likely in the morning, then chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft building to 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft. Thursday night - North winds to 30 kt diminishing to 15 to 25 kt. Waves 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft. Friday - Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft. Saturday - West winds 10 to 20 kt becoming northwest. Chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 ft.

LMZ800
No data

FXUS63 KGRR 070257 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1057 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Potential for strong/severe storms Tuesday

- Wet and Cool Weather for the end of the week

UPDATE
Issued at 1056 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

A fairly quiet remainder of the night is expected with high pressure in control of our area weather. Changes are expected on Tuesday as the high slides away to the east, which will allow a warm front to move in from the south. For the rest of the night however we are looking at a gradual increase in clouds from the south and west. It will remain dry through the night. Lows will range from the upper 30s in the far northeast near Harrison tonight to the low 50s in the southwest near South Haven.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 308 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

- Potential for strong/severe storms Tuesday

Severe storms are just developing over the Plains in response to strong dynamics being produced by low pressure over the northern Plains along a warm/occluded frontal band
These storms
in weakening mode...will move east tonight and move toward Lower MI Tuesday morning. These storms will be weakening as they move across the cwa Tuesday morning due to drier air and limited instability.

Once the initial showers/storms move across by late morning, we'll likely see a lull of a couple of hours and with more storm redevelopment during the mid afternoon. CAPE values increase dramatically behind the frontal boundary and will be helped out by any clearing that we see. An approaching strong short wave that's ejected out of the Plains upper low will support convective redevelopment. Dewpoints surge into the lower 60s behind the front. Strong shear in the 55 kt range coupled with 1k+ j/kg SBCAPE, 6.5-7 C/km mid level lapse rates 40kt LLJ and a 75kt mid level jet will support organization. In this case, the strongest dynamics will remain south of the cwa, but will be strong enough to produce a wind and hail threat from roughly 3pm-8pm. SPC has highlighted a Slight Risk for severe storms generally south of I-96 with a Marginal Risk for most of the rest of the cwa. Any lingering showers/storms should be out of the cwa by 06z Wednesday.

- Wet and Cool Weather for the end of the week

A positive tilted mid level wave will be tracking through the Great Lakes region later Wednesday and into Thursday. PWATs climb as this feature tracks through topping an inch in southern parts of the CWA
This is a good setup for period of steady rain, which will also act to keep the temperatures down. The models do vary considerably with the location and amounts of rain. The GFS has been steady in showing a swath of heavier rain for Muskegon River basin, while the ECMWF and GEM are aiming the precipitation further south and trending further south.

Another mid level wave comes down from the Canadian Prairies on Friday night. This wave will bring down another surge of cool air and there could even be some lake effect rain showers with this second wave. While qpf is projected to be light, given the enhancement of the moisture from Lake MI, we will nudge up the POPs for Friday night into Saturday to account for this. With 850 mb temps struggling to top 0 deg C, the daytime temperatures are likely to stay at least several degrees below normal for both Friday and Saturday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 752 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

VFR conditions with generally east or southeast winds will continue across the area this evening and overnight. Lower clouds start to move into the area in the morning ahead of a line of showers and possible rumbles of thunder that come off Lake Michigan sometime in the late morning/midday timeframe. Latest model guidance is suggesting these low clouds might stick around for the afternoon even after the rain showers move out, which may limit the strength of some of the thunderstorms that are expected to form in the afternoon - especially down in the Jackson TAF site area.

MARINE
Issued at 308 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Southeast wind gusts will increase to around 20 knots tonight which may touch on advisory criteria for a few hours Tuesday morning, but given the offshore flow and the short duration, we'll hold off on a headline for now.

Thunderstorms are possible Tuesday morning and again Tuesday afternoon, which the afternoon storms being potentially strong to severe.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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