Friday, May24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Saugatuck, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:12AMSunset 9:10PM Friday May 24, 2019 1:15 PM EDT (17:15 UTC) Moonrise 12:36AMMoonset 10:16AM Illumination 69% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ874 Expires:201905242115;;384815 Fzus63 Kmkx 241412 Glflm Open Lake Forecast For Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/sullivan Wi 912 Am Cdt Fri May 24 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan. Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10% Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered.
Synopsis.. Low pressure of 29.6 inches over the northern high plains will move to ontario, canada for today through Saturday. Light easterly winds today will veer to modest southerly winds for late Friday night and Saturday. There could be some fog development today over the lake. Lmz080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-242115- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 912 am cdt Fri may 24 2019 sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south...
Rest of today..East winds 10 to 20 kt. Chance of rain showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt veering to south. Numerous rain showers and scattered Thunderstorms in the evening, then periods of rain showers and scattered Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Numerous showers in the morning. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming northwest 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Sunday..North winds 10 to 15 kt. Chance of rain showers in the morning. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sunday night..North winds 10 to 15 kt becoming northeast 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Monday..East winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southeast 10 to 20 kt. Chance of rain showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 ft or less building to 1 to 2 ft.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Chance of showers. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
LMZ874


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saugatuck, MI
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location: 42.84, -86.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 241320
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
920 am edt Fri may 24 2019
latest update...

update

Synopsis
Issued at 318 am edt Fri may 24 2019
- showers and thunderstorms tonight. A couple of storms could be
strong severe.

- locally heavy rainfall possible.

- more storms possible along south of i-94 Sunday.

- stormy Monday night through Wednesday night.

Update
Issued at 920 am edt Fri may 24 2019
updated pops weather to better represent current weather with rain
moving through this morning. Area of warm advection and some
elevated instability has resulted in area of steady rain although
amounts should be less than a tenth of an inch most places.

Thunder was left out although an isolated lightning strike is
possible.

Discussion (today through next Thursday)
issued at 318 am edt Fri may 24 2019
the active weather will continue well into next week. Today will
mainly be dry but a warm front moving north tonight will focus
showers and thunderstorms over the cwa. During this time of year,
warm fronts tend to come alive at night when the low level jet
strengthens. Model consensus is that the warm front will lay across
northern indiana around 00z and move over the CWA toward sunset.

Moisture convergence increases dramatically from 00z to 06z from
southwest to northeast. Given the lift over the frontal boundary,
i'd expect showers and storms to develop during the evening and
continue overnight with a further focus toward the eastern CWA by
morning. Shear values perk up to 40-50 knots and MUCAPE increase to
around 1k j kg too. Thus there may be some organization to to a few
of the storms resulting in stronger to perhaps severe storms with
hail the main threat north of the warm front and wind south of the
front. Flooding is a concern too as pwats increase to 1.75 inches.

Some of the storms may produce well over an inch of rain in a short
period of time.

A cold front moves through Saturday night and pushes the storms
south of the cwa. However, a pesky little short wave scoots across
northern indiana Sunday resulting in showers storms south of i-94.

Monday morning will be dry but then the frontal boundary moves north
again and the cycle repeats itself. A low in the plains moves
northeast toward wisconsin and pushes the the boundary north causing
showers storms to develop Monday afternoon and continue through
Wednesday night.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Saturday morning)
issued at 736 am edt Fri may 24 2019
i still for the most part believe what I wrote 8 hours ago, the
area of showers will move through our CWA between 13z by mkg and
14z to 15z grr, azo, btl and later lan and jxn. However unlike
what I wrote earlier, the area of showers is more expansive than i
was thinking it would be. Also there is still some thunder with
these showers, it is not out of the question mkg and grr could see
a little thunder as this area moves in.

All of this will move out by mid afternoon, soVFR will prevail
but the clouds will not go away, but cloud bases will be above
3000 ft agl.

The second area of showers and thunderstorm will move through
early evening. Thunderstorms should be more widespread than will
so this morning. I would think MVFR CIGS should prevail by 06z after
all of that rain falls. Showers should continue through most of
the early morning hours before coming to an end after 12z. It will
likely take till midday Saturday for conditions to go solidVFR
again.

Marine
Issued at 318 am edt Fri may 24 2019
wind and waves will be fairly tame today but begin to increase
Saturday as southwest winds increase to 15 to 20 knots. Waves will
respond by increasing to 2 to 4 feet. Thunderstorms are expected
tonight through Saturday. Wind and waves will be higher during
thunderstorms.

Hydrology
Issued at 318 am edt Fri may 24 2019
the potential exists for considerable rainfall tonight through
Saturday as showers and thunderstorms develop along a warm front. A
strong feed of moisture will accompany this front. QPF around 1.25
inches is possible with locally 1.75 to 3 inches on the high end.

Given the wet ground, rivers could be pushed out of their banks;
we'll keep an eye on this potential.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... None.

Update... Ostuno
synopsis... 04
discussion... 04
aviation... Wdm
hydrology... 04
marine... 04


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45029 19 mi16 min N 3.9 G 5.8 49°F 47°F1 ft1020.9 hPa (-0.0)47°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 23 mi28 min NNW 6 G 7 53°F 60°F1020.1 hPa53°F
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 24 mi26 min N 3.9 G 3.9 42°F 40°F1021.8 hPa40°F
45161 28 mi36 min Calm G 1.9 49°F 47°F1020.7 hPa
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 31 mi26 min ESE 7 G 8.9 56°F 1021.1 hPa53°F
45168 34 mi16 min NNW 3.9 G 5.8 53°F 51°F1020.8 hPa (-0.3)49°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 35 mi36 min NW 6 G 6 58°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 52 mi76 min S 2.9 G 6 60°F 1019.6 hPa (-1.7)

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Holland - West Michigan Regional Airport, MI29 mi23 minN 010.00 miOvercast61°F53°F75%1021 hPa

Wind History from BIV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW18
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W5W3NW4CalmW3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3NE3SE7SE9SE5
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2 days agoE14E10E10SE7SE13E12E10E12E14SE14E14
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.