Sunday, February17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Saugatuck, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:37AMSunset 6:19PM Sunday February 17, 2019 11:13 PM EST (04:13 UTC) Moonrise 4:03PMMoonset 6:18AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ874 Expires:201902181030;;106053 Fzus63 Kmkx 180246 Glflm Open Lake Forecast For Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/sullivan Wi 846 Pm Cst Sun Feb 17 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan. Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10% Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered.
Synopsis.. A broad area of low pressure of 29.6 inches will move across the northeast tonight, while high pressure of 30.7 inches begins to move south from canada into the northern great plains. Surface winds across lake michigan will transition from northeast to north Monday morning. That area of high pressure will slide across the great lakes Monday and Tuesday, bringing generally quiet weather to the area. Low pressure of 29.7 inches will then cross lake michigan on Wednesday and the eastern great lakes Wednesday night. High pressure of 30.3 inches will return to the great lakes later in the week. No gale force winds are expected through Thursday. Lmz080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-181030- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 846 pm cst Sun feb 17 2019 sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south...
Rest of tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 20 kt. Snow likely through early evening, then chance of snow overnight. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Monday..North winds 10 to 20 kt diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Chance of snow in the morning. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Monday night..North winds 10 to 15 kt becoming northwest 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 kt becoming south. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt increasing to 30 kt overnight. Chance of snow overnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft building to 2 to 4 ft.
Wednesday..East winds to 30 kt becoming south. Snow and light freezing rain in the morning, then snow likely, chance of rain and light freezing rain in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt becoming west. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Thursday..West winds 15 to 25 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Friday..North winds 5 to 10 kt veering to east 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
LMZ874


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saugatuck, MI
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location: 42.84, -86.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 172350
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
650 pm est Sun feb 17 2019
latest update...

aviation

Synopsis
Issued at 218 pm est Sun feb 17 2019
- occasional snow into tonight with accumulations of 1 to 4 inches
- continued cold through midweek
- light snow developing Tuesday night and a wintry mix of
precipitation Wednesday

Discussion (this evening through next Sunday)
issued at 218 pm est Sun feb 17 2019
the main challenges deal with the potential impacts from the next
couple of storms.

To start... Stronger bands of snow continue to persist around the
region... Mainly along and south of interstate 96. These bands of
snow have been forming in a region of mid level fgen and steeper
lapse rates up around 700 mb. Trends over the past hour or or so
suggest the lift has been weakening and satellite shows a dry slot
working in from the southwest. So it appears the heavy snow will
continue for another hr or so... Then a lull may happen. There is
even a potential for freezing drizzle in the dry slot as the dgz
becomes unsaturated. Looking upstream though on radar the next
round of precipitation is headed our way from ia. This should
arrive later this afternoon and evening which should impact the
advisory area... Especially the southern part of it. I would not
rule out a period of heavy snow returning. The snow winds down
from the north mainly after midnight and through the late night
hours. Impacts still look likely for the morning commute even
through the accumulating snow will be done.

A break in the action is forecasted for Monday into Tuesday with
only some lake effect snow showers. Rather cold temperatures are
expected at night with good radiational cooling and fresh snow on
the ground. We lowered the overnight temperatures as a result.

Next up is the storm system for later Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Guidance has been fairly consistent in showing the risk
for impacts from this storm. The combination of warm and moist
air advection along with upper level diffluence will support an
area of precipitation spreading in and remaining over the region
through much of the day. The onset will feature snow arriving near
of just before the Wednesday morning commute. Then as a warm
layer aloft moves in during the day... A wintry mix looks likely
with a period of freezing rain. Headlines may be needed for the
storm system.

The core of the arctic airmass does shift northeastward away from
the region for the end of the week. That will give us a shot at a
period of above normal temperatures.

Another potential storm system could happen on Sunday. The high
res euro is tracking a stronger wave northeastward through the
region. The low levels look too warm for snow based on this
model. The GFS is further east with this storm and result in it
largely missing us. Either way another shot of cold air pulls in
behind it.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Monday evening)
issued at 650 pm est Sun feb 17 2019
we have convective snow showers exiting the jxn area as I write
this. Meanwhile the next area of snow, assoicated with the upper
air system has to move across the TAF sites tonight and this will
not be a quick event. The snow should last a good part of the
night and there is some suggestion it may even linger into mid
morning Monday. So expect mostly ifr conditions with moderate so
heavy icing in the clouds tonight.

Complicating this is some mid-level dry air ahead of the next area
of snow. The chicago area had some freezing drizzle a few
hours ago and that area should cross our southern TAF sites in
the 00z to 02z time frame. So, those taf's I put one hour off
freezing drizzle to cover this event.

Once the snow ends it will take until late afternoon to clear out
the low clouds and bringVFR CIGS to the area.

Hydrology
Issued at 1226 pm est Sun feb 17 2019
ice continue to impact the area around portland. The weather
pattern will remain colder than normal so we do not expect the ice
to break up any time soon. Elsewhere... We are looking at some very
cold overnight low temperatures the next couple of nights. So
there will likely be some additional ice forming. We will continue
to monitor the situation closely.

A moderating trend is forecasted with the temperatures for the end
of the week. At this time any melting would be rather gradual
based on the current forecasts.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Winter weather advisory until 8 am est Monday for miz050>052-
056>059-064>067-071>074.

Synopsis... Mjs
discussion... Mjs
aviation... Wdm
hydrology... Mjs


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 23 mi44 min NNE 8 G 11 22°F 32°F1013.2 hPa15°F
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 31 mi34 min ENE 12 G 15 22°F 1016.6 hPa18°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 35 mi44 min NNE 8.9 G 11 23°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 52 mi74 min NE 5.1 G 7 24°F 1013.5 hPa (+1.6)

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Holland - West Michigan Regional Airport, MI29 mi81 minNNE 62.50 miLight Snow Fog/Mist23°F19°F85%1014.4 hPa

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Last 24hr------------------------------------------------
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.