Monday, August20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Saugatuck, MI

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Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 8:39PM Monday August 20, 2018 5:10 AM EDT (09:10 UTC) Moonrise 3:55PMMoonset 12:50AM Illumination 65% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ874 Lake Michigan From Michigan City In To St. Joseph Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From North Point Light To Wind Point Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wilmette Harbor Il To Michigan City In 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Holland To Grand Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From South Haven To Holland Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From St. Joseph To South Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 256 Am Cdt Mon Aug 20 2018 North Point Light Wi To Grand Haven Mi South...
Today..Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt becoming east to 30 kt late. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms this morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms this afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 ft building to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Tonight..Southeast winds to 30 kt becoming south 10 to 15 kt overnight. Showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft.
Tuesday..West winds to 30 kt becoming north. Occasional gale force gusts. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Waves 7 to 10 ft occasionally to 13 ft.
Tuesday night..North winds to 30 kt with occasional gale force gusts to 35 kt. Chance of showers in the evening. Waves 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft.
Wednesday..North winds 15 to 25 kt becoming northwest 10 to 20 kt. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft subsiding to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt becoming west. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.
Thursday..West winds 5 to 10 kt becoming southwest 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Friday..South winds 15 to 25 kt increasing to 30 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft building to 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
LMZ874 Expires:201808201530;;934392 FZUS63 KLOT 200756 GLFLM OPEN LAKE FORECAST for Lake Michigan National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 256 AM CDT Mon Aug 20 2018 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON Lake Michigan. Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure of 29.5 inches over northwest Missouri will cross southern Lake Michigan from roughly Racine to south of Muskegon late tonight. The low will continue to Lake Huron by Tuesday afternoon. High pressure of 30.3 inches over the northern and central Plains Tuesday will build east into the middle and upper Mississippi Valley region by Wednesday night and into the Ohio Valley Thursday and Friday. Meanwhile, a 29.6 inch low pressure trough will develop over the northern High Plains. LMZ080-673-675-777-779-874-876-878-201530-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saugatuck, MI
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location: 42.84, -86.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 200730
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
330 am edt Mon aug 20 2018
latest update...

synopsis short term long term marine

Synopsis
Issued at 330 am edt Mon aug 20 2018
low pressure will track across lake michigan tonight and move across
southern lower michigan on Tuesday. Clouds will thicken today in
advance of the low with showers and thunderstorms moving in from the
southwest late this afternoon. Periods of showers and thunderstorms
are expected both tonight and on Tuesday. Rainfall totals of around
an inch are possible in most areas. A period of dry weather is
expected from Wednesday through much of Friday as high pressure
slides slowly east through the great lakes. Another chance for
showers and storms will come Friday afternoon into Saturday as a
warm front pushes through the area. Temperatures will cool a bit
behind the early week system with highs in the 70s forecast for
Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Next weekend however the warm air
rushes back in with highs forecast to push well into the 80s if not
the 90s.

Short term (today through Wednesday)
issued at 330 am edt Mon aug 20 2018
focus in the short term is squarely on the low that will traverse
the area tonight and Tuesday. The main impact from the system will
be a widespread rain, with locally heavy amounts possible. The rain
looks to come in somewhat of a one two punch with a warm air
advection surge tonight, followed by a deformation zone on Tuesday.

Models have been consistent in showing rainfall generally between
0.50 and 1.50 inches across the area. Where the warm air advection
rainfall overlaps with the deformation zone rain amounts may exceed
2.00 inches in that area. A bit difficult to nail down the area of
heaviest rain at this point. Wpc has a broad brushed area of
rainfall totals around an inch and cannot argue with that forecast
at this point.

Thunderstorms will be in the mix as MUCAPE values eclipse the 1000
j kg level. Not expecting anything close to severe as this system
will be more of a rain producer. Thunderstorms looks possible from
about 21z this afternoon through Tuesday evening.

Otherwise, clouds will thicken through the day with showers and
storms moving in from the southwest this afternoon. Behind the
system, a few showers may linger into Tuesday night before the
moisture declines and we clear out into Wednesday. High temperatures
on Wednesday will be very comfortable by august standards in the
middle 70s.

Long term (Wednesday night through Sunday)
issued at 330 am edt Mon aug 20 2018
the long term will start out quiet as surface high pressure drifts
through the area from Wednesday night through Friday morning.

Temperatures will be seasonable Thursday and Friday with highs near
80.

A more active period will occur from Friday afternoon through Friday
night and into Saturday as a warm front moves through the great
lakes. Showers and a few thunderstorms will accompany this frontal
passage. The warm front will usher in a surge of much warmer air.

850mb temps rise to in excess of +20c in both the GFS and ECMWF on
Sunday which would yield highs above 90f. For now our forecast for
Sunday has 80s, but this may need to be bumped higher with time.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 1145 pm edt Sun aug 19 2018
vfr conditions will slowly deteriorate to a mix ofVFR MVFR with
patchy ifr possible during the early morning hours Monday due to
the development of patchy fog and some low clouds. Conditions will
then improve toVFR by mid morning as low clouds patchy fog
dissipates.VFR conditions will then continue through Monday
afternoon.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will gradually move in from
the southwest and likely affect all of the terminals Monday
evening. Brief reductions to ifr MVFR are possible as storms and
heavier showers move through.

Marine
Issued at 330 am edt Mon aug 20 2018
lake michigan is going to look a lot more like fall the next 48
hours as winds and waves kick up to autumn type levels. Low pressure
centered over northern missouri early this Monday morning will track
east-northeast and move across southern lake michigan tonight. As
the low moves northeast into ontario, stronger north winds will fill
in down lake michigan in the wake of the passage of the low. Winds
look to increase to 20 to 30 knots Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday
night. We are expecting some gale force gusts, but at this time we
think it will be limited and not worthy of a gale warning. Tuesday
afternoon and evening will be the time frame of strongest winds and
the time frame we will be watching for potential gales.

Air temperatures over the lake will be in the 60s, with water temps
well into the 70s so this will be a cold air advection event, much
like a fall system. Waves will likely build into the 6 to 10 foot
range in our nearshore waters during the height of the wind.

We will be posting both small craft advisories and beach hazards
statements from Tuesday midday through Wednesday afternoon and
evening. The winds and waves hit the northern zones first (15z tues)
and the south a bit later (18z tues). Headlines will run until 18z
wed in the north and 00z thurs in the south. The break point will be
at grand haven.

Piers will be places to avoid during the largest waves as high water
levels will allow waves to completely wash over the pier surface.

The public should avoid pier structures Tuesday into Wednesday.

Swimming will be hazardous as the short period wind waves will be
about as large as they ever get in the heart of the swim season.

When in doubt don't go out.

Hydrology
Issued at 324 pm edt Sun aug 19 2018
significant rainfall is possible Monday night and Tuesday. An inch
to an inch and a half of rain is possible during this time. Within
bank rises are possible by mid week on area rivers. Additionally,
locally heavy rainfall could create ponding on roads and other low
lying areas.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... Beach hazards statement from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for miz056-064-071.

Beach hazards statement from Tuesday morning through Wednesday
afternoon for miz037-043-050.

Lm... Small craft advisory from 11 am Tuesday to 2 pm edt Wednesday
for lmz847>849.

Small craft advisory from 2 pm Tuesday to 8 pm edt Wednesday for
lmz844>846.

Synopsis... Duke
short term... Duke
long term... Duke
aviation... Laurens
hydrology... 04
marine... Duke


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45029 19 mi31 min ESE 9.7 G 14 71°F 75°F1 ft1014.7 hPa63°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 23 mi47 min E 11 G 17 70°F 1014.6 hPa70°F
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 24 mi81 min SE 16 G 18 76°F 76°F1 ft1013.7 hPa (-1.3)68°F
45161 28 mi31 min ESE 12 G 14 72°F 75°F1 ft
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 31 mi31 min ESE 6 G 8.9 69°F 1014.9 hPa63°F
45168 34 mi31 min SE 5.8 G 7.8 69°F 74°F1 ft1015 hPa62°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 35 mi41 min E 7 G 9.9 68°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 52 mi71 min NE 1 G 6 69°F 1014.9 hPa (-1.7)

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Holland - West Michigan Regional Airport, MI29 mi18 minE 58.00 miFair64°F62°F93%1015.1 hPa

Wind History from BIV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmE4SE3E33E3E534NW7NW74NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE5CalmSE3Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmN5333CalmCalmW55NW6NW7NW6N8NW4N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N4N5NW4N3544NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.