Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Union Springs, NY
March 19, 2024 3:59 AM EDT (07:59 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:08 AM Sunset 7:19 PM Moonrise 12:42 PM Moonset 3:56 AM |
LOZ044 Expires:202403190945;;982595 Fzus51 Kbuf 190222 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 1022 pm edt Mon mar 18 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-190945- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 1022 pm edt Mon mar 18 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through late Tuesday night - .
.gale watch in effect from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday night - .
Rest of tonight - Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. A chance of snow showers late this evening, then lake effect snow showers likely after midnight. Waves 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Tuesday - West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. Lake effect snow showers likely. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tuesday night - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Snow showers likely in the evening, then a chance of snow showers overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet, then subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Wednesday - West winds 15 to 25 knots increasing to 30 knots. A chance of snow showers in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet building to 9 to 12 feet. Waves occasionally around 15 feet.
Wednesday night - West gales to 35 knots becoming northwest and diminishing to 30 knots overnight. Lake effect snow showers likely. Waves 10 to 14 feet. Waves occasionally around 18 feet.
Thursday - Northwest winds to 30 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 9 to 12 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 15 feet.
Friday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. A chance of snow showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday - Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north. A chance of snow and rain showers during the day, then a chance of snow showers Saturday night. Waves 2 feet or less building to 2 to 3 feet.
the water temperature off rochester is 41 degrees.
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 1022 pm edt Mon mar 18 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-190945- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 1022 pm edt Mon mar 18 2024
the water temperature off rochester is 41 degrees.
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Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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FXUS61 KBGM 190539 AFDBGM
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 139 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
Lake effect snow showers continue across the region today, with steadier lake effect snow moving into northern counties tonight.
Lake effect snow showers will continue on and off through the middle of the week as the pattern remains unsettled.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
1000 PM Update...
Light lake effect snow showers are now reaching the ground over southern Cayuga, Tompkins, and Cortland county as temperatures and dewpoints have merged closer together. Adjusted Pops to focus snow showers over these counties as a more organized band moves through. Roads conditions are mainly wet as temperatures are continuing to fall over the region. No other changes were needed at this time as previous forecast still applies.
630 PM Update...
Updated temperatures and dew points with the latest observations and blended this into the forecast. There continues to be a 10-15 degree difference between temperatures and dewpoints keeping precipitation light over central NY.
330 PM Update...
Light lake effect snow showers continue across northern Oneida county, and a few showers have developed in the last hour over the Finger Lakes region, sliding south. Dewpoint depressions of 10-15 degrees across the region have kept most of the precip showing up on radar as virga. Higher elevations heavier snow showers have been able to break through the dry air and seen snow at the surface. Most areas should not see any accumulations this afternoon as the sun has kept surface temps in the mid 30s.
A 500mb shortwave trough moving through the eastern Great Lakes has an associated low level positively tilted trough moving into western NY this afternoon. Winds have started to shift from mostly westerly to NWerly, continuing through the late afternoon, and settling in to NW flow by the evening. 850mb temps will be -7 to -8 through the early evening, which will allow lake effect showers to develop, but they should be light in nature. 850mb temps fall to -12 to -13 by the late evening, and combined with more aligned NW flow, lake effect show showers should gain steam across Onondaga, Madison and southern Oneida counties. Snowfall amounts are expected to be between 1-3 inches across the aforementioned area.
The winds shift back SWerly Tuesday morning as a ridge builds into the region from the SW. Lake effect showers will slide north during the morning, but the ridge will not be in place for long as a shortwave moves across the region from the Great Lakes. Snow showers move back into region, with the best chances across the Finger Lakes to northern Oneida beginning late morning Tuesday through the evening. The sun angle is high enough this time of year that most snow that falls will not stick to the ground, and almost all of the snow that fell Monday night should melt. Highs on Tuesday will reach the mid to upper 30s.
Snow showers will continue through the overnight hours as the shortwave rotates through the region, with the best chance of snow north of the Southern Tier. Another 1-3 inches of snow is forecast across the eastern Finger Lakes into northern Oneida, with the best chance for higher numbers across the higher elevations. Temps will fall into the mid 20s to low 30s.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Wednesday will start off with a few snow showers around. However, as we head into the afternoon a fairly potent shortwave looks to rotate into the region. With some moisture from the Great Lakes a round of fairly widespread showers mixed with graupel and snow showers should develop as temperatures rise into the mid and upper 30's.
Also conditions look favorable for the transport of strong wind gusts of 30-40 mph that could get tapped to the surface with the main wave of showers/snow showers in the afternoon, so some snow squalls are possible. An element of instability in the form of steep low lapse rates and CAPE of around 50 J/KG looks to be present ahead of it as well. Temperatures look warm enough in valley locations to where any accumulations would be light but a quick half inch or so in higher elevations is not out of the question. Typical residual west northwest flow lake effect Wednesday night with another inch or two south of Syracuse into Madison county.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
High pressure then looks to build into the region Thursday with any lake effect snow showers shifting into the Finger Lakes and Southern Tier early Thursday before finally breaking up. Despite the potential for some afternoon sunshine highs will likely stay in the 30's again.
More uncertainity is present for Friday through the weekend. The spread within the ECMWF ensemble guidance continues to be very high.
For now, opted to stay close to our blended model guidance (NBM)
given the uncertainity with temperatures (30's/40's). However, more solutions are trending in the direction of more interaction and in the case of the 12Z GFS full phase between southern and northern branches Friday night and Saturday. More interaction would allow for more moisture to be drawn ahead of a disturbance moving through the Great Lakes eastward into our region. For now, increased the coverage of rain/snow in this time frame.
Given a much colder (10's- 20's for lows) and drier airmass ahead of this system most of the region does have it's best shot in a while to get accumulating snow outside the traditional lake effect areas.
A warming trend Sunday and Monday with high pressure passing by to our north and east.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Lake effect snow showers will continue through the early morning hours and bring brief IFR restrictions to Central NY terminals, but predominant conditions will be MVFR. Conditions will turn VFR later this morning, however more MVFR to brief IFR restrictions will be possible at all sites again late this afternoon as a weak upper level disturbance pushes through.
Outlook...
Wednesday into Thursday...Another frontal system is expected to bring restrictions with snow showers and possible squalls.
Thursday evening into Friday...Mainly VFR under weak high pressure.
Friday night and Saturday...Chance of snow and rain with another stronger low pressure system. Associated restrictions possible.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 139 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
Lake effect snow showers continue across the region today, with steadier lake effect snow moving into northern counties tonight.
Lake effect snow showers will continue on and off through the middle of the week as the pattern remains unsettled.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
1000 PM Update...
Light lake effect snow showers are now reaching the ground over southern Cayuga, Tompkins, and Cortland county as temperatures and dewpoints have merged closer together. Adjusted Pops to focus snow showers over these counties as a more organized band moves through. Roads conditions are mainly wet as temperatures are continuing to fall over the region. No other changes were needed at this time as previous forecast still applies.
630 PM Update...
Updated temperatures and dew points with the latest observations and blended this into the forecast. There continues to be a 10-15 degree difference between temperatures and dewpoints keeping precipitation light over central NY.
330 PM Update...
Light lake effect snow showers continue across northern Oneida county, and a few showers have developed in the last hour over the Finger Lakes region, sliding south. Dewpoint depressions of 10-15 degrees across the region have kept most of the precip showing up on radar as virga. Higher elevations heavier snow showers have been able to break through the dry air and seen snow at the surface. Most areas should not see any accumulations this afternoon as the sun has kept surface temps in the mid 30s.
A 500mb shortwave trough moving through the eastern Great Lakes has an associated low level positively tilted trough moving into western NY this afternoon. Winds have started to shift from mostly westerly to NWerly, continuing through the late afternoon, and settling in to NW flow by the evening. 850mb temps will be -7 to -8 through the early evening, which will allow lake effect showers to develop, but they should be light in nature. 850mb temps fall to -12 to -13 by the late evening, and combined with more aligned NW flow, lake effect show showers should gain steam across Onondaga, Madison and southern Oneida counties. Snowfall amounts are expected to be between 1-3 inches across the aforementioned area.
The winds shift back SWerly Tuesday morning as a ridge builds into the region from the SW. Lake effect showers will slide north during the morning, but the ridge will not be in place for long as a shortwave moves across the region from the Great Lakes. Snow showers move back into region, with the best chances across the Finger Lakes to northern Oneida beginning late morning Tuesday through the evening. The sun angle is high enough this time of year that most snow that falls will not stick to the ground, and almost all of the snow that fell Monday night should melt. Highs on Tuesday will reach the mid to upper 30s.
Snow showers will continue through the overnight hours as the shortwave rotates through the region, with the best chance of snow north of the Southern Tier. Another 1-3 inches of snow is forecast across the eastern Finger Lakes into northern Oneida, with the best chance for higher numbers across the higher elevations. Temps will fall into the mid 20s to low 30s.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Wednesday will start off with a few snow showers around. However, as we head into the afternoon a fairly potent shortwave looks to rotate into the region. With some moisture from the Great Lakes a round of fairly widespread showers mixed with graupel and snow showers should develop as temperatures rise into the mid and upper 30's.
Also conditions look favorable for the transport of strong wind gusts of 30-40 mph that could get tapped to the surface with the main wave of showers/snow showers in the afternoon, so some snow squalls are possible. An element of instability in the form of steep low lapse rates and CAPE of around 50 J/KG looks to be present ahead of it as well. Temperatures look warm enough in valley locations to where any accumulations would be light but a quick half inch or so in higher elevations is not out of the question. Typical residual west northwest flow lake effect Wednesday night with another inch or two south of Syracuse into Madison county.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
High pressure then looks to build into the region Thursday with any lake effect snow showers shifting into the Finger Lakes and Southern Tier early Thursday before finally breaking up. Despite the potential for some afternoon sunshine highs will likely stay in the 30's again.
More uncertainity is present for Friday through the weekend. The spread within the ECMWF ensemble guidance continues to be very high.
For now, opted to stay close to our blended model guidance (NBM)
given the uncertainity with temperatures (30's/40's). However, more solutions are trending in the direction of more interaction and in the case of the 12Z GFS full phase between southern and northern branches Friday night and Saturday. More interaction would allow for more moisture to be drawn ahead of a disturbance moving through the Great Lakes eastward into our region. For now, increased the coverage of rain/snow in this time frame.
Given a much colder (10's- 20's for lows) and drier airmass ahead of this system most of the region does have it's best shot in a while to get accumulating snow outside the traditional lake effect areas.
A warming trend Sunday and Monday with high pressure passing by to our north and east.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Lake effect snow showers will continue through the early morning hours and bring brief IFR restrictions to Central NY terminals, but predominant conditions will be MVFR. Conditions will turn VFR later this morning, however more MVFR to brief IFR restrictions will be possible at all sites again late this afternoon as a weak upper level disturbance pushes through.
Outlook...
Wednesday into Thursday...Another frontal system is expected to bring restrictions with snow showers and possible squalls.
Thursday evening into Friday...Mainly VFR under weak high pressure.
Friday night and Saturday...Chance of snow and rain with another stronger low pressure system. Associated restrictions possible.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY | 43 mi | 60 min | W 19G | 32°F | 29.76 | 25°F |
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Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KPEO PENN YAN,NY | 24 sm | 66 min | W 08G16 | 9 sm | Overcast | Lt Snow | 28°F | 18°F | 64% | 29.79 |
Binghamton, NY,
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