Thursday, March30, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Union Springs, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 7:32PM Thursday March 30, 2017 2:46 AM EDT (06:46 UTC) Moonrise 7:41AMMoonset 9:43PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Sodus Bay To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario- 742 Pm Edt Wed Mar 29 2017
Tonight..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly Sunny in the morning...then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east. Rain with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Rain. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east. Rain. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. A chance of rain showers during the day. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Monday..East winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers Monday night. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LOZ044 Expires:201703300315;;284422 FZUS51 KBUF 292342 NSHBUF NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 742 PM EDT WED MAR 29 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE LOZ044-300315-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Union Springs, NY
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location: 42.85, -76.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 300539
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
139 am edt Thu mar 30 2017

Synopsis
A ridge of high pressure will provide quiet weather for most of
the coming day, though clouds will increase and thicken in the
afternoon. Our next system will enter the region in the evening
and will linger through Saturday. This will be mainly a cold
rain, but for some areas east of interstate 81, there will be a
wintry mix of snow sleet and freezing rain at times.

Near term /through today/
730 pm update...

minor changes to the forecast. Low clouds continue across the
northeast half of the cwa. These should dissipate this evening.

With only high clouds and winds becoming light, temperatures
will fall into the 20s.

310 pm edt update...

nw flow aloft will prevail over the region today and dry air
will continue to drain into the region. A diurnal CU field has
developed under the inversion, however with time the inversion
will continue to break apart eventually the CU field will
dissipate. Cirrus clouds will start to move into the region from
the NW as WAA take place aloft ahead of the next storm system.

Nw sfc winds will continue to be breezy this afternoon ranging
from 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

High pressure at the sfc will build into the region from the
north tonight along with anti-cyclonic flow aloft and force
the winds to become light and variable. Temps tonight will range
in the low to mid 20s.

Thursday morning the area of high pressure will start to move to
the east and WAA at mid-lvl will start to take place thus,
cloud coverage will start to increase from west to east by late
morning. WAA will continue throughout the day and temps will
rise into the uppr 40s to low 50s on thurs. The next storm
system will start to approach the region Thursday evening and
bring the chance for rain. Chances for precip increase
dramatically after 00z fri.

Short term /tonight through Friday night/
Main concerns in the short term are focused around the impacts
from a large area of low pressure expected to pass from the
ohio valley through the mid-atlantic region and track off the
east coast thur night through Saturday. This system will be
complex with mix of rain, snow, sleet and freezing rain
possible. The area most likely to see the wintry mix will be
mainly east of i-81 into the poconos and the catskills. There
will also be the potential for locally heavy rain, producing
minor flooding issues as well.

By Thursday evening/night the upper low will be cutoff from the
flow near st. Louis and the surface low will be just to the
east with a warm front extending into the SRN great lakes near
wrn pa. There should be a fairly strong baroclinic zone
associated with the warm front with strong WAA from the south
and a cold canadian air mass to the north. The frontal zone will
be the focus of precipitation as the system translates to the
east. One major factor that will impact the thermal profiles and
play a key role in determining precipitation type will be a
large area of high pressure over ERN canada and the cold air
that will spill southward into central ny and portions of NE pa
Friday and Saturday.

The bulk of the heavy precipitation will be Friday morning
through Friday afternoon where 1 to 1.5 inches of precip could
fall. The threat for a wintry mix of rain/snow/sleet/freezing
rain is possible mainly east of i-81 where the cold air in the
low levels from the e/ne will settle in and modify profiles
enough to change the rain to a wintry mix. Areas to the west
should remain under the influence of warmer air and keep the
precip all in the form of rain. May see 2-4 inches of snow/sleet
in the higher elevations of oneida to delaware counties Friday
morning. Most of the precip across the region Friday afternoon
will change to rain with the highest accumulation occurring
during this period. However the cold air mass will make another
surge back into the catskills Friday night/sat morning and
change the rain back to a sleet/snow/rain/fz rain mix. The
precip rates should really taper off early Saturday and through
the day as the system exits to the east and the drier air
filters in behind the system.

With the potential for heavy rain with this system the threat of
flooding returns once again. The impacts from potential flooding
may once again be mitigated by the lack of a real warm
up... Temps remaining in the 30s and 40s. However... Check the
hydro discussion below for additional information.

Temperatures Friday morning will be chilly... In the 30s... With a
warm up only into the lower 40s west of i-81 and remaining in
the 30s the east. Temps drop back down into the 30s Fri night
and begin a slow warm up into the lower to mid 40s sat
afternoon.

Long term /Saturday through Wednesday/
Will likely see periods of rain showers Sat evening and a change
or mix with light snow/flurries going into Saturday
night/Sunday morning. Only light amounts expected during this
period. Should see a brief dry period Sunday into early Monday
with weak high pressure building across the region. There are
some notable differences among deterministic model guidance
regarding the next system expected early next week with the
latest GFS giving a more northerly track and the ECMWF keeping
the low further to the south. Thermal profiles look to be warm
enough for all rain at this point... And will keep with a slow
increase in rain potential from late Monday through Tuesday.

There is some indication of a potential for heavy rain once
again, so will need to keep a close eye on how this system
evolves over the next several days. Temperatures will remain
fairly seasonal with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s and
lower 40s.

Aviation /06z Thursday through Monday/
Vfr conditions will persist through the coming day, however, our
next system will begin to bring restrictions towards the end of
the TAF period. Initially mainly clear sky will give way to
increasing high thin clouds around or above 20 kft agl starting
around midday, which will then thicken and lower with time late
afternoon through evening. Rain will be spotty and light at
first but from 01z west to 06z east will bring in MVFR
restrictions with fuel alternate required to ifr conditions not
far behind. Winds variable overnight to east 5-10 knots for all
terminals, then becoming southeast to south for kith-kbgm-kelm-
kavp late morning through evening.

Outlook...

Friday through Saturday... Restrictions likely in
showers, especially Friday through Friday night. Snow or sleet
may be mixed in at times for krme.

Saturday night through Monday... PrimarilyVFR.

Monday night... Good chance of rain and associated restrictions.

Hydrology
350 pm edt Wednesday update...

a renewed threat for minor flooding returns this weekend as low
pressure moves from the southern plains to the eastern
seaboard. The system currently appears strong enough to generate
widespread QPF in excess of one inch by Saturday morning. The
main problem with this situation is the forecast of marginal
boundary layer temperatures. We should see a portion of the
precipitation fall as snow, sleet or freezing rain at the onset,
followed by several hours of rain, then a wintry mix again at
the conclusion of the event. This definitely hampers the
prediction of runoff and accurate flow/stage forecasts.

The current best estimate suggests that temperatures will be
marginally cold, and although we may see differing precipitation
types, not a lot of this new precipitation will be locked up.

Another factor contributing to the confusion is how the remaining
snow cover deep in the woods and hills of the susquehanna and
upper delaware headwaters will behave. Colder than usual temperatures
in the 30s to low 40s may not do much to melt the snow, however,
fairly warm rain falling into the ripe snow pack could do some
damage and exacerbate additional runoff.

Bottom line is that river rises will kick in again, and the
most plausible river simulations do suggest parts of the
susquehanna and delaware rivers could exceed their posted minor
flood stages by a little bit. Current confidence is very low,
and our best river forecasts are probably not going to happen
until the precipitation is on the ground. We will evaluate the
need for another flood watch tomorrow.

Bgm watches/warnings/advisories
Pa... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Mdp
near term... Kah/tac
short term... Bjt
long term... Bjt
aviation... Mdp
hydrology...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 43 mi46 min SSE 2.9 G 6 33°F 1025 hPa (-1.1)23°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 56 mi46 min E 14 G 15 38°F 1026.1 hPa (-0.7)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 57 mi46 min 38°F 1025.4 hPa (-0.5)

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Penn Yan, Penn Yan Airport, NY24 mi53 minSW 310.00 miFair29°F24°F82%1024.8 hPa

Wind History from PEO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3NW3NW3NW3N5N7N76655
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N9N103NE3NE3CalmCalmCalmSW3
1 day agoCalmSW4CalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW5N6N5N6NW7NW6NW4N76NW5N4CalmN75N44
2 days agoS12
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S11S8SW8SW7SW9W9W4SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.