Thursday, May23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Union Springs, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:34AMSunset 8:31PM Thursday May 23, 2019 2:40 AM EDT (06:40 UTC) Moonrise 11:55PMMoonset 8:37AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:201905230915;;305286 Fzus51 Kbuf 230214 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 1014 Pm Edt Wed May 22 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-230915- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1014 Pm Edt Wed May 22 2019
Rest of tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Scattered showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Some Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less building to 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers in the evening. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Partly to mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Friday night..West winds 10 knots or less becoming south. A chance of showers overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Some Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north. A chance of showers Monday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 47 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Union Springs, NY
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location: 42.85, -76.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 230250
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
1050 pm edt Wed may 22 2019

Synopsis
Expect clouds and some scattered showers tonight. A line of
thunderstorms, some possibly severe with strong winds and hail,
will move through central new york and northeast pennsylvania
Thursday afternoon and evening. Quiet but cooler weather
returns for Friday. We are watching for another round of
potentially severe thunderstorms for parts of the area later
Saturday as temperatures rise back into the 70s.

Near term through Thursday night
1030 pm update...

just minor changes to the forecast. Showers starting to make
headway into the drier air now. Some sprinkles on the obs in the
wrn cwa. This will spread across the area the rest of tonight.

Ahead of it temperatures are still mostly in the lower 60s.

6 pm update...

mid clouds have covered the area now with a few sprinkles
falling into the dry low level air. Upped cloud amounts.

Dewpoints in the east are still in the 30s so lowered. Rest of
the forecast in good shape.

Previous discussion...

high clouds are overspreading the region on the periphery of an
expansive upper level anticyclone centered over the southeast
us. A weak wave along an advancing warm front will push into the
area later this evening into the overnight hours. This will
bring a round of showers to the area, and a rumble of thunder
cannot be completely ruled out overnight. Winds are turning
southeast, then southerly tonight. Winds increase between 7-15
mph tonight, with a few higher gusts. Not as cold tonight with
lows in the 50s.

Low level drying should allow skies to break out to at least
partly sunny on Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front. A
narrow wedge of ml CAPE values progged around 800-1200 j kg
should develop during the afternoon, while a mid-level jet is
forecast to move through ny pa and enhance shear profiles. There
will be a bit of a cap, with around 100 j kg of CIN around in
the morning that should suppress the initial line of
convection. The main concern will be behind this initial line as
forcing increases and discrete cells redevelop mid to late
afternoon, then progress southeast, perhaps forming into line
segments.

Not a lot of changes in the latest guidance for the potential
severe weather Thursday afternoon and evening. Bulk shear
values (0-6 km) will be 55-65 kts across most of the forecast
area by Thursday afternoon. Good low level turning is expected
with the nam12 forecast sr helicity values in excess of 300-500
m2 s2. This combination of shear and instability favors
supercells and strong bowing line segments. Storms could produce
strong wind gusts, hail and even an isolated tornado cannot be
ruled out as well, considering the strong low level shear.

Timing: the first, mainly elevated line of convection should
move through the central and northern portion of the CWA late
morning to midday. Then, as the atmosphere destabilizes (and the
weak low level cap breaks) stronger convection should develop
across the finger lakes syracuse area between about 2-5 pm;
moving southeast to the i-81 and i-88 corridor in cny 4-7 pm,
then into sullivan county ny and NE pa 5-9 pm.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms could linger into
the late evening on Thursday, then just isolated showers
overnight under mostly cloudy skies. Cold air advection
strengthens under a developing northwest flow overnight as lows
dip down into the 50s once again.

Short term Friday through Saturday
Quiet day on Friday as a northwest flow of cooler and stable
air streams into the area. Surface high pressure builds into the
area late in the day. Residual clouds over the eastern zones
will erodes through the day.

Friday night will be dry as the high slides east and upper
ridge builds. On Saturday, southerly flow develops ahead of the
next fast moving system. Cold front enters western ny late in
the day with some semblance of a surface warm front along the
mohawk valley. This may set up yet another severe weather
scenario with considerable shear, and the potential for
damaging storms depending on the available energy. Plenty of
variables still to be worked out and timing an issue.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
Saturday's front looks like it might stall somewhere over
southern pa so despite high pressure moving in from the lakes,
some additional showers possible into Sunday, especially over
the nepa counties.

Short wave drops in on Monday, activating the old front and
developing showers and storms further north. Larger high builds
in from behind the wave late Monday into Tuesday bringing drier
and cooler air.

Aviation 03z Thursday through Monday
720 pm update...

the majority of the next 24 hours will beVFR. Some light
showers will move through tonight with no restrictions.

Some high end MVFR CIGS are expected Thursday morning in south
central ny and nepa from 13 to 17z. At avp MVFR CIGS could
linger longer with a moist southerly low level flow and be
accompanied by MVFR vsbys.

The next issue with be showers and thunderstorms starting at
around 20z then moving southeast to avp at 22z. Thunderstorms
will happen but not enough confidence this far out to include.

Thunderstorms will have strong gusty winds.

Southeast winds at 4 to 8 kts tonight. Thursday south to
southwest at 5 to 10 kts increasing to 10 to 15 kts with higher
gusts in the afternoon.

Outlook...

Thursday evening... Brief restrictions possible in showers or
thunderstorms.

Friday...VFR.

Saturday... Restrictions possible in afternoon showers or
thunderstorms.

Sunday and Monday... MainlyVFR. A low chance of showers or
thunderstorms.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Mjm tac
near term... Mjm tac
short term... Dgm
long term... Dgm
aviation... Tac


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 43 mi47 min SSE 14 G 17 62°F 1017.6 hPa46°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 56 mi41 min ESE 4.1 G 6 59°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 57 mi47 min 57°F 1016.2 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Penn Yan, Penn Yan Airport, NY24 mi48 minSSW 1110.00 miPartly Cloudy56°F48°F77%1018.7 hPa

Wind History from PEO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5S3CalmCalmSW4SW3W3CalmE4E53CalmCalmE5CalmCalmSE6SE7SE8S8SW7
G16
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1 day agoW9
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2 days agoS11SW11SW5SW8SW8SW12SW11
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.