Friday, February22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Union Springs, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 5:47PM Friday February 22, 2019 9:18 PM EST (02:18 UTC) Moonrise 9:41PMMoonset 8:55AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:201902221615;;329246 Fzus51 Kbuf 221105 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 605 Am Est Fri Feb 22 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-221615- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 605 Am Est Fri Feb 22 2019
.storm watch in effect from Sunday morning through Monday morning...
Today..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Partly Sunny this morning, then becoming mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Mainly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Partly to mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Rain. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..South winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west and increasing to 50 knot storms. Rain showers likely during the day, then snow showers with rain showers likely Sunday night. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 16 to 21 feet. Waves occasionally around 27 feet.
Monday..West gales to 40 knots becoming northwest and diminishing to 15 to 20 knots. Snow showers during the day, then a chance of snow showers Monday night. Waves 15 to 20 feet subsiding to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 26 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 35 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Union Springs, NY
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location: 42.85, -76.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 222344
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
644 pm est Fri feb 22 2019

Synopsis
Low pressures spinning toward the great lakes will spread rain
into ny and pa late Saturday into Sunday morning, with patches
of freezing rain possible. A cold front will follow late Sunday
into Monday with very gusty winds.

Near term through Saturday night
3 pm update...

clouds flowing off lake ontario will dissipate early this
evening as high pressure briefly builds overhead. Quiet weather
will hold through midday Saturday, then a low pressure system
moving toward the great lakes will pull rain and mild
temperatures into ny and pa late Saturday afternoon into early
Sunday.

The biggest concern with this system will be surface
temperatures. The normally colder high elevations along the i-81
corridor and much of the western catskills will hover near the
freezing mark, increasing the potential for freezing rain.

The temperature inversion aloft (+4c to +5c near msv) suggests
freezing rain will be more likely than sleet, and the magnitude
of the mild layer may be sufficient to warm the surface above
freezing in spots. For this reason, we are holding off on an
advisory at this time.

1045 am update...

high pressure will continue to yield a quiet day across the
region. Northwest flow off lake ontario will keep skies cloudy
across the forecast area with the exception of the far west and
south.

Temperatures and dew points are on track heading into the
afternoon hours. The forecast remains in good shape.

Short term Sunday through Monday
***potential increasing for very strong, damaging winds for the
northern tier of pennsylvania and all of central ny late Sunday into
Monday***
Sunday: a powerful storm system will pass by well to the northwest
of our area. However, this system will drag a strong cold front
through the region during the day Sunday. Sunday morning the
forecast area will still be in the warm sector of this system, with
gusty south winds, periods of rain, and mild temperatures. Still
cannot rule out some very localized freezing rain over the higher
terrain of northern sullivan county during the early morning hours.

Also, cannot rule out a rumble of thunder as the strong front moves
through mid to late morning. Soundings show small amounts of
instability, mostly elevated. As the front GOES through strong cold
air advection develops Sunday afternoon, but surface temperatures
still rise into the upper 40s to mid-50s areawide. On and off rain
showers continue into Sunday afternoon, with total rainfall amounts
(sat night - Sunday) ranging from one-third to three-quarters of an
inch. Southwest winds increase between 15-25 mph, with gusts up to
40 mph by sunset.

Sunday night and Monday: strong cold air advection and
increasing wind energy moves into our forecast area behind the
cold front. Strong pressure rises and deep mixing produces the
strongest winds after midnight, working from west to east across
the region. With the storm track up across central canada
(970-975mb low), the strongest winds still seem to be focused
from the northern tier of pa up across central ny... With the
maxima potentially setting up from near penn yan to syracuse and
rome. Brought the high wind watch a few counties south and
east... Now including bradford, susquehanna, northern wayne,
sullivan (ny) and points north west. GFS and mav guidance has
stronger winds compared to the NAM met guidance... But with this
set up feel there is at least a 50 percent chance of reaching
those higher winds (gusts greater than 58 mph) within the watch
area... .Gfs bufkit momentum transfer shows peak gusts 50-58 kts
across much of our forecast area... But this may be a little over
done down toward scranton wilkes-barre area. GFS 30 meter winds
are over 50-55kts Sunday night into Monday morning. Boundary
layer winds also peak during this 06z - 15z Monday time period.

Daytime mixing increase and keeps winds strong gusty through
midday or afternoon Monday. These wind speeds certainly have the
potential to take down trees and powerlines. Wind gusts may not
drop below 30-35 mph until Monday evening... So power outages
may be long duration, especially in the watch area.

The other, much more minor issue will be the lake
effect upslope snow showers this period across central
ny... Especially cortland and norwich north. In this area could see
localized 2-4 inches amounts, with more widespread 1-2 inch amounts.

Any snow that does fall and accumulate will certainly be
blowing drifting around. Temperatures fall into the mid-20s to near
30 Sunday night... Then only warm a few degrees Monday... Into the
upper 20s and lower 30s.

Long term Monday night through Friday
350 pm update...

Monday night and Tuesday features cold weather, with lingering lake
effect snow showers on a wnw flow. Should be mainly dry and partly
cloudy for NE pa this period. Snow accumulations look light for this
period across north-central ny. Northwest winds decrease, between 10-
20 mph Monday night, then 8 to 15 mph Tuesday. Cold overnight lows
in the 10s... With highs mostly in the 20s. Uncertainty returns
Tuesday night as the GFS brings a weather system through the area
and a period of light snow. Meanwhile the ecwmf and cmc sweep
another, almost arctic front through the area from the north with
just scattered snow showers. For now, used a blend of the latest
guidance which gave chance pops for snow showers. Cold with lows in
the upper single digits north to mid teens south.

Wednesday's forecast is highly uncertain. The GFS and canadian
continue to show a weak wave moving through the area from the
midwest, which may bring some light snow to the area, depending on
the track. Meanwhile, the ECMWF continues to show the area under
high pressure with mainly dry conditions. For now, kept chance pops
in the forecast for light snow due to the uncertainty. Should the
gfs canadian solution pan out, some lingering snow showers are
possible Wednesday night, especially in cny where there could be
lake effect or lake enhanced snow showers. High pressure then likely
builds in for Thursday through Friday, bringing drier conditions.

Temperatures during this period will remain seasonable with highs
generally in the mid 20s to mid 30s and lows generally in the teens
and lower 20s.

Aviation 00z Saturday through Wednesday
Weak northwest flow continues across central new york with lake
clouds persisting at some terminals. Weakening flow and warming
temperatures at 850mb will result in diminishing lake clouds
shortly. At ksyr krme, lowVFR ceilings will diminish by 04z
with just high clouds for the remainder of the TAF period. At
kith kbgm, MVFR ceilings will diminish by 02z with just high
clouds rest of period. At kelm kavp, highs clouds through late
in the TAF period then mid level clouds after 21z.

Light and variable winds becoming E SE on Saturday at 5-8 knots.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Sunday morning... Restrictions likely
with rain, perhaps briefly mixed with sleet at first. Low level
wind shear likely Saturday night from strong ssw low level jet.

Sunday afternoon through Monday... Rain showers changing back to
snow showers but also mainly impacting the ny terminals with
intermittent restrictions. Strong gusty winds expected,
especially ksyr.

Monday night and Tuesday... MainlyVFR conditions but brief
restrictions possible at krme ksyr in snow showers.

Tuesday night and Wednesday... Restrictions possible in light
snow.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... High wind watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon
for paz038>040.

Ny... High wind watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon
for nyz024-045-046-055>057-062.

High wind watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon
for nyz009-015>018-022-023-025-036-037-044.

Synopsis... Djp
near term... Djp
short term... Mjm
long term... Bjg
aviation... Rrm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 43 mi30 min SSW 2.9 G 4.1
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 56 mi78 min SW 2.9 G 2.9 31°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 57 mi36 min 28°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Penn Yan, Penn Yan Airport, NY24 mi25 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds28°F21°F78%1032.4 hPa

Wind History from PEO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW8NW8NW7NW7NW4W5W3W3W3W5NW4NW4W6NW8NW5NW5NW75NW5N3CalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoS11
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2 days agoSW4CalmCalmSW4SW3CalmSW6CalmCalmS3CalmCalmSW4CalmSE13S5S7SE10SE13SE11S14
G19
S11S11S16
G21

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.