Sunday, November18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Union Springs, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 4:41PM Sunday November 18, 2018 11:04 AM EST (16:04 UTC) Moonrise 2:43PMMoonset 1:45AM Illumination 81% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 907 Am Est Sun Nov 18 2018
Rest of today..South winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of light snow late. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. A chance of rain and snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..Southwest winds 10 knots or less. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. Snow showers likely during the day, then a chance of snow showers Tuesday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northwest and diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Snow showers likely during the day, then a chance of snow showers Wednesday night. Waves 4 to 7 feet building to 8 to 11 feet, then subsiding to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 14 feet.
Thursday..North winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less. The water temperature off rochester is 45 degrees.
LOZ044 Expires:201811182215;;491733 FZUS51 KBUF 181407 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 907 AM EST Sun Nov 18 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-182215-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Union Springs, NY
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location: 42.85, -76.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 181444
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
issued by national weather service state college pa
944 am est Sun nov 18 2018

Synopsis
An area of low pressure will move from the ohio valley into
southern new england by Monday morning. This system will bring
1 to 3 inches of snow to much of central new york and the
northern tier of pennsylvania. Brief high pressure on Monday
will provide dry weather along with highs in the middle to lower
40s.

Near term through Monday
An area of low pressure currently over ky will lift northeast
into southern new england by Monday morning. The latest model
guidance has shifted the axis of isentropic lift a bit farther
north than the previous runs along with more qpf. Light snow is
expected to spread across the twin tiers up to the thruway
corridor during the mid to later morning hours reaching the
western catskills by early afternoon. As the upper level wave
moves through late afternoon or early evening, a light mix of
rain snow will move through the far southeast forecast area.

After midnight, much of the precipitation will be over except
for lingering activity in the southern catskills and
northeastern pa. Total snow accumulation will range from 1 to 3
inches over much of central ny and the northern tier of pa with
only a few tenths of an inch of snow in the wyoming valley due
to rain snow mix and northern oneida county due to lighter
activity. Highs today will range from the lower to mid 30s with
overnight lows in the mid 20s to low 30s.

Monday: brief surface ridging will bring mainly dry conditions
with highs reaching the mid 30s to low 40s.

Short term Monday night through Tuesday night
Next weak wave of low pressure rides along the slow moving
boundary Monday night into Tuesday morning. Latest model
guidance is showing a slightly better defined surface low
crossing the appalachians in wv, then moving near baltimore and
finally just south of long island. With this kind of track the
best chances to see a period of light snow will be from the ny
southern tier southward across NE pa and sullivan county ny with
less than 1 inch further north. Overnight lows will be between
25-30 degrees.

On Tuesday, the surface low departs off the southern new
england coast with lingering light snow or snow showers over our
eastern zones in the morning. Midday or early afternoon the
upper level trough axis and associated surface cold front push
through the area. This will increase cold air advection, with
850mb temperatures falling to around -8c by late afternoon.

Scattered snow showers will be along and behind the front as it
moves through the area. By late afternoon lake effect snow
showers are also forecast to develop along a 300-310 degree
flow. Most areas could see a quick half inch to one inch of snow
during the day Tuesday. High temperatures in the mid to upper
30s will be reached midday or early afternoon, with temperatures
falling into the upper 20s and lower 30s prior to sunset. Winds
turn west-northwest 8-15 mph, with a few higher gusts Tuesday
afternoon.

Tuesday night: lake effect snow showers likely continue off lake
ontario during this timeframe as cold air in the low to mid
levels of the atmosphere continues to flow over the lake. Snow
amounts should be kept in check by the shallow moisture and
equilibrium levels (between 5-8 kft agl). The exact orientation
of the lake effect snow showers remains somewhat uncertain. As
upper level heights rise the flow may back slightly, becoming
more westerly and pushing the snow showers bands northward. Weak
warm air advection in the mid levels begins later Tuesday night
as the next clipper system moves to our north, allowing surface
winds to turn southwesterly. Overnight will be rather cold, in
the lower to mid 20s for most areas.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday
Latest model guidance is overall in excellent agreement for the
long term period. The aforementioned clipper system will pass
by to our north during the day Wednesday. This low pressure
system will drag an arctic frontal boundary through the area
during the afternoon hours. Along and behind this front
conditions look favorable for snow showers and perhaps even some
snow squalls. Winds turn northwest and temperatures begin to
drop rapidly by later afternoon or evening. 850 mb temperatures
fall to around -20c by 12z Thursday as the overall flow turns
almost due northerly. This very cold airmass will keep scattered
lake effect snow showers and flurries around for most of
central ny and parts of the northern tier of pa Wednesday night
into Thursday. Accumulations should be light due to the dry
nature of the airmass, short lake fetch, and lowering inversion
heights. Overnight lows will be very cold, dropping into the
teens areawide.

Thanksgiving and Thursday night: will feature the coldest air
mass of the season so far. This will likely go down as one of
the coldest thanksgivings on record... With near record low maxes
for the date (nov 22nd). It will be partly cloudy, frigid and
breezy with northwest winds 5 to 15 mph. There will be some
scattered flurries around as well, under a northerly flow. High
temperatures only reach the upper teens to lower 20s in central
ny, and 20-25 in NE pa. A very cold, canadian surface high moves
overhead Thursday night providing nearly ideal radiational
cooling conditions. Overnight lows will likely be at record cold
levels... Reaching the single digits for most locations.

Friday and Friday night: this period looks dry but cold as
upper level heights rise and an upper level ridge builds
overhead. After a frigid start Friday morning highs only reach
the upper 20s to lower 30s. Then, temperatures quickly drop back
down into the upper teens or lower 20s Friday evening night.

Saturday will feature increasing clouds as the next weather
system approaches from the ohio valley. This system will be slow
to move in as it runs into the departing high pressure over new
england. Winds turn southerly and highs warm into lower to
perhaps mid 40s. A chance of rain will develop late in the day
over the western zones. Saturday night into next Sunday, the
previously mentioned low pressure system slowly moves through
the area, bringing a chance of rain areawide. Temperatures look
more seasonable... With lows in the mid 30s and highs in the mid
40s.

Aviation 15z Sunday through Thursday
A low pressure system passing to our south will spread light
snow across the ny terminals with light rain at kavp. At
kith kbgm kelm, ifr conditions in light snow will develop
whereas for krme ksyr it will be MVFR alternate required; snow
will then gradually end tonight but restrictions will persist
via ceilings. Light and variable winds will become light E se
this afternoon into early evening, then variable again tonight.

Outlook...

Monday... Initial ifr to fuel alternate ceilings will improve to
higher end MVFR orVFR as low pressure system departs the area.

Monday night through Tuesday night... Restrictions reappear with
chances of snow showers from additional weak waves of low
pressure, followed by lake effect snow showers later Tuesday-
Tuesday night for the ny terminals, especially ksyr-krme.

Wednesday through Wednesday night... Possible snow squalls brief
but significant restrictions as arctic front slides through the
region, followed by lake effect snow showers and flurries.

Thursday...VFR except for intermittent restrictions from lake
effect flurries ksyr-kith-kelm-kbgm.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Rrm
near term... Rrm
short term... Mjm
long term... Mjm
aviation...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 43 mi35 min SSE 7 G 11 33°F 1027 hPa20°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 56 mi65 min SSW 2.9 G 5.1 35°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 57 mi35 min 35°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Penn Yan, Penn Yan Airport, NY24 mi72 minSSE 410.00 miOvercast33°F25°F72%1027.2 hPa

Wind History from PEO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW9NW9W7W8W13
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W5W45NW7NW7NW8NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--SE3S4SW3
1 day agoSW9
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SW15SW12SW10W7SW8W12W12
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2 days agoSE8
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G18
SE8S5SE5SE44E3--CalmCalmCalmCalmNW4CalmCalmCalmS4SW4S7SW9S6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.