Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Elma Center, NY
March 19, 2024 6:52 AM EDT (10:52 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:16 AM Sunset 7:27 PM Moonrise 12:50 PM Moonset 4:04 AM |
LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 1022 Pm Edt Mon Mar 18 2024
Rest of tonight - Northwest winds around 10 knots becoming west. Lake effect snow showers likely late this evening.
Tuesday - West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. Lake effect snow showers.
Tuesday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. Lake effect snow showers likely in the evening, then a chance of snow showers overnight.
Wednesday - West winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers.
Wednesday night - West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers in the evening.
Thursday - Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Partly to mostly cloudy.
Friday - East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. A chance of snow and rain showers during the day, then a chance of snow showers Friday night.
Saturday - North winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers during the day.
the water temperature off buffalo is 39 degrees.
the water temperature off buffalo is 39 degrees.
LEZ005
No data
No data
Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
  (hide/show)  HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KBUF 190939 AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 539 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
An elevated frontal boundary will help to produce some widespread snow across the region today with most areas receiving a coating to an inch or two of non impactful snow. Lake enhancement could lend to somewhat higher amounts east of both lakes. While the snow showers will taper off tonight...a frontal passage Wednesday morning will lead the charge of reinforcing cold air. This will promote at least scattered snow showers throughout the day while setting the stage for pure lake effect snow showers Wednesday night and Thursday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A sub 1000mb sfc low in the vcnty of Lake Superior at daybreak will slowly drift east during the course of today
In the process
an elevated warm front will make its way across our forecast area along with a swath of deeper moisture. Frontogenetic lift associated with the elevated boundary should be enough to generate fairly widespread snow showers during the course of the day...esp east/northeast of the lakes where pure lake effect will give way to synoptic forcing and act as an enhancing feature due to H85 temps 'warming' to -8c.
This will effectively eliminate the lake induced instability.
Snowfall amounts today will generally range from one to two inches...although higher amounts of up to four inches will be found near and south of the Tug Hill. Amounts will be most insignificant (an inch or less) over the Finger Lakes region
Otherwise
today will continue to feature below normal temperatures peaking in the low to mid 30s...while a modest 35 knot low level jet will support widespread wind gusts of at least 30 mph.
While a deep cyclonic flow of chilly air will maintain a wealth of clouds over the region tonight...enough weak warm advection should have taken place with the aforementioned elevated warm front to preclude pure lake effect east/northeast of the lakes. There will be some lake and orographically enhanced areas of light snow though that could accumulate as much as three inches in the vcnty of the Tug Hill. Temperatures tonight will settle to within a few degrees of 30.
On Wednesday...a 120kt H25 jet will accompany a robust shortwave that will drive the next cold front through our forecast area. This will easily support scattered to likely pops for snow showers throughout the region with orographics pushing the pops to categorical levels in the vcnty of the Tug Hill. Fresh daytime snow accumulations will generally range from an inch or two...but amounts should reach three inches or so for the higher terrain of the Srn Tier and east of Lk Ontario. While relatively warm sfc's should aid in limiting the impact of the snow on area roadways...there could be a burst of snow with the front that would quickly lead to a slushy coating.
Speaking of which...a 40kt LLJ and a 10kft deep layer of very steep lapse (9-10 deg c/km) rates that will accompany the front could set the stage for a squall line of heavy snow during the frontal passage between mid morning and early afternoon. This set up will also promote a windy afternoon throughout the region...especially over the western counties where winds could gust to 40 mph. If you will be traveling during the aforementioned window...be wary of a 15 minute burst of snow that will not only SIGNIFICANTLY reduce the visibility but could also lead to a glaze of ice.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Strong mid level shortwave and associated surface low will move from far southern Quebec into New England Wednesday night, before moving east of Maine by late Thursday. Strong cold air advection ensues Wednesday night in the wake of a surface cold frontal passage earlier on Wednesday. This will allow widespread snow shower activity to become more upslope and lake effect dominant Wednesday night. Temperatures aloft will certainly support a lake response as 850Ts take a nose dive, getting down to -15C to -18C overnight. A westerly flow will place lake effect snow bands east of the Lakes initially, before flow veers northwesterly sending lake bands southeast of the Lakes. Winds will be quite strong with some blowing snow possible as lows bottom out in the mid teens to low 20s.
Equilibrium levels around 10kft Wednesday evening will slowly drop through the night to around 5-6kft by Thursday morning as drier air slowly works in aloft from the west. Despite a lowering cap, possible upstream lake connections and a DGZ that remains fully in play will allow LE snow to continue into Thursday morning, before drier air and subsidence along with early spring sun angle win out with the last of the lingering lake effect snow showers tapering off through Thursday afternoon. Snowfall amounts from Wednesday night through Thursday will be 2-4" on the Tug Hill, 1-3" southeast of Lake Ontario and across the higher terrain east of Lake Erie, especially the Chautauqua Ridge. Little to no accumulation expected elsewhere.
Otherwise, Thursday will feel much more like mid-January as opposed to the start of spring with daytime highs mainly in the mid to upper 20s, struggling to reach 20F across the Tug Hill and western Dacks (some 15-20 degrees below average). Strong northwest winds will lower wind chill values down into the single digits and even below zero Tug Hill/western Dacks by late Wednesday night, with wind chill readings still only in the single digits and teens by Thursday afternoon.
Surface high pressure will bring mainly dry conditions Thursday night as it slides directly overhead, while also providing good radiational cooling conditions as surface winds decouple along with clearing skies, especially away from any lingering lake clouds. This will set us up for a cold night with teens for lows area wide, with single digits Tug Hill/western Dacks. This will also be a night where those traditional cold spots may tank, especially if there is fresh snow cover.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Deep upper level low lifts out on Friday, while surface high pressure shifts east with a south to southeast low level return flow setting up bringing some warmer air north toward our region. Jet stream will remain active with the northern and southern stream branches trying to phase toward the tail end of the work week into the start of the weekend. Models continue to struggle with phasing of the two branches, with a partial phasing of the two jets looking like the worst case scenario at this point. GFS continues to be the most aggressive with the phasing of the two jets. If phasing of the northern and southern branch did occur, it would have the potential to develop a strong synoptic system that could develop over or east of our area depending on timing. Either way, it appears likely that a slug of precipitation will impact our region sometime in this window, with p-type highly dependent on how this system develops.
High pressure brings dry weather for the second half of the weekend.
As we start the new work week, a system ejecting out of the Rockies will approach from the west, while another system tries to get its act together while moving northward along the East Coast. High pressure wedged in between these two systems may remain close enough to keep dry weather going into Monday, however with a decent amount of discrepancy at this time range, will follow closer to ensemble guidance with slight to low chance PoPs in the forecast for now.
Below average temperatures through the weekend...will quickly jump back the near or even a bit above average for the start of the new work week.
AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Widespread cigs arnd 3500ft will accompany some light snow during the remaining pre dawn hours...although MVFR conditions in steadier lake snows will be found southeast of Lake Ontario...impacting sites such as KJHW.
After daybreak...an elevated frontal boundary will support deteriorating conditions with MVFR cigs and snow that will reduce vsbys to 2-4SM. This will be accompanied by winds that increase to include wind gusts of 30-35 knots.
The fairly widespread snow will taper off late today and early this evening...while cigs should improve to VFR levels. The exception will likely be across the Srn Tier and east of Lk Ontario where MVFR cigs should persist.
Outlook...
Wednesday...Occasional lake effect snow showers with local/brief IFR conditions. MVFR/VFR outside of lake effect.
Thursday...MVFR/VFR with a chance of snow showers and associated brief/local IFR.
Friday...Mainly VFR with increasing chances for snow showers.
Friday night through Saturday...MVFR with chances for snow showers.
MARINE
A tight sfc pressure gradient between relatively deep low pressure to our north and high pressure centered over the Lower Mississippi valley will support widespread small craft advisories throughout the region today. This includes the Upper IAG River and Buffalo Harbor with a freshly issued SCA in this package.
While winds will drop off a bit tonight...moderate to fresh breezes will keep conditions choppy enough to warrant extending many of the SCAs through the night up to when a widespread gale watch will go into effect Wednesday afternoon.
The gale watch for Wednesday is a result of a 40kt low level jet that will accompany the passage of...and persist for several hours afterward...a strong cold front.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Thursday for LEZ040- 041.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for LOZ042>045.
Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday night for LOZ042>045-062>065.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 539 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
An elevated frontal boundary will help to produce some widespread snow across the region today with most areas receiving a coating to an inch or two of non impactful snow. Lake enhancement could lend to somewhat higher amounts east of both lakes. While the snow showers will taper off tonight...a frontal passage Wednesday morning will lead the charge of reinforcing cold air. This will promote at least scattered snow showers throughout the day while setting the stage for pure lake effect snow showers Wednesday night and Thursday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A sub 1000mb sfc low in the vcnty of Lake Superior at daybreak will slowly drift east during the course of today
In the process
an elevated warm front will make its way across our forecast area along with a swath of deeper moisture. Frontogenetic lift associated with the elevated boundary should be enough to generate fairly widespread snow showers during the course of the day...esp east/northeast of the lakes where pure lake effect will give way to synoptic forcing and act as an enhancing feature due to H85 temps 'warming' to -8c.
This will effectively eliminate the lake induced instability.
Snowfall amounts today will generally range from one to two inches...although higher amounts of up to four inches will be found near and south of the Tug Hill. Amounts will be most insignificant (an inch or less) over the Finger Lakes region
Otherwise
today will continue to feature below normal temperatures peaking in the low to mid 30s...while a modest 35 knot low level jet will support widespread wind gusts of at least 30 mph.
While a deep cyclonic flow of chilly air will maintain a wealth of clouds over the region tonight...enough weak warm advection should have taken place with the aforementioned elevated warm front to preclude pure lake effect east/northeast of the lakes. There will be some lake and orographically enhanced areas of light snow though that could accumulate as much as three inches in the vcnty of the Tug Hill. Temperatures tonight will settle to within a few degrees of 30.
On Wednesday...a 120kt H25 jet will accompany a robust shortwave that will drive the next cold front through our forecast area. This will easily support scattered to likely pops for snow showers throughout the region with orographics pushing the pops to categorical levels in the vcnty of the Tug Hill. Fresh daytime snow accumulations will generally range from an inch or two...but amounts should reach three inches or so for the higher terrain of the Srn Tier and east of Lk Ontario. While relatively warm sfc's should aid in limiting the impact of the snow on area roadways...there could be a burst of snow with the front that would quickly lead to a slushy coating.
Speaking of which...a 40kt LLJ and a 10kft deep layer of very steep lapse (9-10 deg c/km) rates that will accompany the front could set the stage for a squall line of heavy snow during the frontal passage between mid morning and early afternoon. This set up will also promote a windy afternoon throughout the region...especially over the western counties where winds could gust to 40 mph. If you will be traveling during the aforementioned window...be wary of a 15 minute burst of snow that will not only SIGNIFICANTLY reduce the visibility but could also lead to a glaze of ice.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Strong mid level shortwave and associated surface low will move from far southern Quebec into New England Wednesday night, before moving east of Maine by late Thursday. Strong cold air advection ensues Wednesday night in the wake of a surface cold frontal passage earlier on Wednesday. This will allow widespread snow shower activity to become more upslope and lake effect dominant Wednesday night. Temperatures aloft will certainly support a lake response as 850Ts take a nose dive, getting down to -15C to -18C overnight. A westerly flow will place lake effect snow bands east of the Lakes initially, before flow veers northwesterly sending lake bands southeast of the Lakes. Winds will be quite strong with some blowing snow possible as lows bottom out in the mid teens to low 20s.
Equilibrium levels around 10kft Wednesday evening will slowly drop through the night to around 5-6kft by Thursday morning as drier air slowly works in aloft from the west. Despite a lowering cap, possible upstream lake connections and a DGZ that remains fully in play will allow LE snow to continue into Thursday morning, before drier air and subsidence along with early spring sun angle win out with the last of the lingering lake effect snow showers tapering off through Thursday afternoon. Snowfall amounts from Wednesday night through Thursday will be 2-4" on the Tug Hill, 1-3" southeast of Lake Ontario and across the higher terrain east of Lake Erie, especially the Chautauqua Ridge. Little to no accumulation expected elsewhere.
Otherwise, Thursday will feel much more like mid-January as opposed to the start of spring with daytime highs mainly in the mid to upper 20s, struggling to reach 20F across the Tug Hill and western Dacks (some 15-20 degrees below average). Strong northwest winds will lower wind chill values down into the single digits and even below zero Tug Hill/western Dacks by late Wednesday night, with wind chill readings still only in the single digits and teens by Thursday afternoon.
Surface high pressure will bring mainly dry conditions Thursday night as it slides directly overhead, while also providing good radiational cooling conditions as surface winds decouple along with clearing skies, especially away from any lingering lake clouds. This will set us up for a cold night with teens for lows area wide, with single digits Tug Hill/western Dacks. This will also be a night where those traditional cold spots may tank, especially if there is fresh snow cover.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Deep upper level low lifts out on Friday, while surface high pressure shifts east with a south to southeast low level return flow setting up bringing some warmer air north toward our region. Jet stream will remain active with the northern and southern stream branches trying to phase toward the tail end of the work week into the start of the weekend. Models continue to struggle with phasing of the two branches, with a partial phasing of the two jets looking like the worst case scenario at this point. GFS continues to be the most aggressive with the phasing of the two jets. If phasing of the northern and southern branch did occur, it would have the potential to develop a strong synoptic system that could develop over or east of our area depending on timing. Either way, it appears likely that a slug of precipitation will impact our region sometime in this window, with p-type highly dependent on how this system develops.
High pressure brings dry weather for the second half of the weekend.
As we start the new work week, a system ejecting out of the Rockies will approach from the west, while another system tries to get its act together while moving northward along the East Coast. High pressure wedged in between these two systems may remain close enough to keep dry weather going into Monday, however with a decent amount of discrepancy at this time range, will follow closer to ensemble guidance with slight to low chance PoPs in the forecast for now.
Below average temperatures through the weekend...will quickly jump back the near or even a bit above average for the start of the new work week.
AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Widespread cigs arnd 3500ft will accompany some light snow during the remaining pre dawn hours...although MVFR conditions in steadier lake snows will be found southeast of Lake Ontario...impacting sites such as KJHW.
After daybreak...an elevated frontal boundary will support deteriorating conditions with MVFR cigs and snow that will reduce vsbys to 2-4SM. This will be accompanied by winds that increase to include wind gusts of 30-35 knots.
The fairly widespread snow will taper off late today and early this evening...while cigs should improve to VFR levels. The exception will likely be across the Srn Tier and east of Lk Ontario where MVFR cigs should persist.
Outlook...
Wednesday...Occasional lake effect snow showers with local/brief IFR conditions. MVFR/VFR outside of lake effect.
Thursday...MVFR/VFR with a chance of snow showers and associated brief/local IFR.
Friday...Mainly VFR with increasing chances for snow showers.
Friday night through Saturday...MVFR with chances for snow showers.
MARINE
A tight sfc pressure gradient between relatively deep low pressure to our north and high pressure centered over the Lower Mississippi valley will support widespread small craft advisories throughout the region today. This includes the Upper IAG River and Buffalo Harbor with a freshly issued SCA in this package.
While winds will drop off a bit tonight...moderate to fresh breezes will keep conditions choppy enough to warrant extending many of the SCAs through the night up to when a widespread gale watch will go into effect Wednesday afternoon.
The gale watch for Wednesday is a result of a 40kt low level jet that will accompany the passage of...and persist for several hours afterward...a strong cold front.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Thursday for LEZ040- 041.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for LOZ042>045.
Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday night for LOZ042>045-062>065.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY | 13 mi | 65 min | WSW 20G | 31°F | 44°F | 29.78 | 26°F | |
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY | 25 mi | 65 min | 30°F | 29.80 | ||||
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY | 25 mi | 65 min | 32°F | 29.79 | ||||
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY | 33 mi | 53 min | WSW 12G | 30°F | 29.81 | |||
YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY | 36 mi | 53 min | W 18G | 32°F | 29.78 | |||
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY | 46 mi | 53 min | W 27G | 32°F | 29.80 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KBUF BUFFALO NIAGARA INTL,NY | 7 sm | 58 min | W 17G25 | 4 sm | Overcast | Lt Snow | 30°F | 25°F | 80% | 29.79 |
KIAG NIAGARA FALLS INTL,NY | 24 sm | 50 min | W 15G22 | 3 sm | Overcast | Lt Snow | 30°F | 25°F | 80% | 29.79 |
Buffalo, NY,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE