Thursday, March23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Elma Center, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 7:32PM Thursday March 23, 2017 4:07 AM EDT (08:07 UTC) Moonrise 3:37AMMoonset 1:48PM Illumination 19% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 138 Am Edt Thu Mar 23 2017
Overnight..Light and variable winds. Clear.
Thursday..Light and variable winds. Sunny.
Thursday night..Light and variable winds becoming south 5 to 10 knots. Rain likely overnight.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. Rain in the morning...then a chance of rain in the afternoon.
Friday night..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west less than 10 knots. Rain likely.
Saturday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. Rain.
Sunday..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Rain.
Monday..South winds 10 knots or less. Rain likely during the day...then a chance of rain Monday night. The water temperature off buffalo is 33 degrees.
LEZ020 Expires:201703230915;;935945 FZUS51 KBUF 230538 NSHBUF NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 138 AM EDT THU MAR 23 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE LEZ020-230915-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elma Center, NY
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 42.86, -78.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kbuf 230532
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
132 am edt Thu mar 23 2017

Synopsis
High pressure across the lower great lakes will result in fair
weather today with temperatures rebounding a bit. A frontal
boundary will stall across the region this weekend, with several
disturbances moving along the front and bringing periods of
rain over the weekend and into the first half of next week.

Near term /through today/
Sprawling arctic high pressure will continue to build in across the
great lakes overnight. A few scattered narrow bands of lake
effect clouds will persist southeast of lake ontario supported
by the cold airmass, but the very shallow inversion and dry
synoptic scale environment will only permit partly cloudy skies
at most. Otherwise for the rest of the area expect clear skies
overnight.

High pressure will move over the forecast area overnight setting the
stage for optimal radiational cooling with light to calm winds and
clear skies. Locations with lingering snowpack, such as the north
country and interior portions of the western southern tier will see
temperatures plummet overnight, with lows bottoming out in the
single digits to near zero. Meanwhile, lake plains locations, those
with limited snow pack, and urban areas will see temperatures mainly
in the low to mid teens.

The large high pressure system will slide to our east after
daybreak, with some limited return flow developing by mid- day
and the afternoon. This will allow for some moderation in
temperatures as the core of the cold airmass exits the region.

High temperatures will run a fair bit warmer than Wednesday, as
temperatures reach the low 30s in the north country to within a
few degrees of 40 in western ny. Full sunshine in the morning
will give way to a gradual increase in mid/high clouds later in
the afternoon as mid level warm advection increases from west to
east.

Short term /tonight through Saturday night/
After a midweek dry spell, the region will enter a prolonged
unsettled and relatively mild period that will last at least through
the weekend as a slow moving upper level low meanders across the
nation's mid-section. Southerly return flow around high pressure
stationed off the eastern seaboard, enhanced by a strengthening low-
level jet will pump moisture and mild air northwards across the
great lakes. Meanwhile, a northerly flow of cooler and drier
canadian air be found just to our north, sharpening a frontal
boundary across the lower great lakes. This front will then serve as
the focus for a band of precipitation across the forecast area that
will develop starting late Thursday night as the warm front lifts
across the region. With warm air initially overrunning the initially
sub-freezing surface air, we may see a brief period of mixed
precipitation, particularly across the southern tier and north
country, late Thursday night into Friday morning before the arrival
of much warmer air on southwesterly flow changes precipitation over
to rain. Temperatures Thursday will then warm into the 50s across
western ny, with low 40s in the north country.

Currently, the model consensus places the frontal precipitation band
along and north of the thruway, with around a half to three quarters
of an inch of precipitation possible, heaviest across the north
country. Temperatures across the forecast area should hold above
freezing Friday night, allowing for ongoing frontal precipitation to
persist as rain, with the possible exception of the st. Lawrence
valley, where a possible backing northerly flow may bring in some
sub-freezing air and result in mixed precipitation early Saturday
morning.

As we move into Saturday, diurnal effect should keep precipitation
mostly rain, however, as the broad surface low wandering across the
mississippi valley draws closer to the region, increasing
northeasterly flow into this low may draw colder surface air over
canada back across the forecast area, potentially undercutting the
warm air aloft. This may result in more substantial sleet and/or
freezing rain across the north country, and possible as far south as
the lake ontario plain. Model guidance differs somewhat in how far
north the warm front travels into canada Friday, and hence how far
south it will retreat Saturday, so all mixed precip grids are being
left as a chance for the time being.

Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/
An active wet pattern will continue Sunday into at least the middle
of next week as western and north-central ny will remain within the
track of at least two mid-level troughs. Each of these troughs will
provide synoptic lift over and moist southerly flow into our region
that will interact with a low frontal boundary. The first will shift
over our region in the Sunday-Monday time frame while the second
looks to shift over our region Tuesday. It appears now that this
boundary from Sunday into Monday will lie further to the north
towards or across the saint lawrence river valley then should be
shoved even further northeast by the second trough/surface low. For
western ny into the finger lakes, the position of this front will
allow for plenty of low level warm air to support high confidence
for a soaking plain rain. Looking across the north country into the
saint lawrence valley, the position of the front will be more
sensitive to p-type and a risk for some freezing rain Sunday night
and Monday night with cold northeasterly flow down the slv. Have
kept any wording for freezing rain at chance pops due to the
uncertainty in frontal position this far out.

In terms of surface temperatures, areas to the south of the front
will mainly feature warmer temps upper 40s into the 50s while areas
north of the boundary will see cooler temperatures 30s and lower 40s
with some 20s possible in the north country during the overnights.

In terms of qpf, a rough average accumulated total among the models
Sunday through Tuesday ranges from around a half inch on the ecmwf
to around 2 inches on the gfs. While the long duration of this event
should not bring any flash flooding concerns, river and stream rises
and areal flooding of low-lying areas may be possible. If sub-
freezing air remains locked at the surface on the north side of the
front there could also be a threat of some significant ice
accumulations but the lowest confidence is found in that scenario.

Overall, confidence on the specific placement of any weather hazards
during this period is fairly low at this range which has precluded a
mention in the hazardous weather outlook.

On Wednesday, the second surface low will shift off into new england
with a cooler and perhaps very dry northwest flow in its wake. The
12z ECMWF shows very dry air with just a cool northwest flow on
Wednesday while the GFS shows some lingering wrap around moisture
may lead to some upslope/lake enhanced showers. Have gone with
slight/low chance pops for Wednesday under a more clear signal shows
up in the guidance.

Aviation /06z Thursday through Monday/
High pressure will remain across the region overnight with skc
in most areas. A few scattered lake effect clouds will persist
in a small area southeast of lake ontario with bases around 4k
feet. The surface high will drift to the mid atlantic later
today.VFR will continue with a modest increase in mid/high
clouds from west to east later in the afternoon.

Clouds will thicken and lower tonight, but it should generally
remain dry and in theVFR category until just before 12z Friday.

There is also a potential for llws after 06z Friday.

Outlook...

Friday... Deterioration to MVFR/ifr with rain. The rain may begin as
a brief period of freezing rain or snow in some areas.

Saturday thru Monday... MVFR/ifr with rain likely at times.

Marine
Winds have diminished with high pressure building across the
lower great lakes so the small craft headlines will be allowed
to expire. This high will will remain across the waters through
this evening with light winds and negligible waves.

S or SW winds will increase Friday, and may approach small craft
criteria. After this, a boundary will stall across the region,
with a northeasterly flow likely on lake ontario and variable
winds on lake erie. This may require small craft headlines on
lake ontario for portions of the weekend.

Buf watches/warnings/advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Apffel
near term... Apffel/church/hitchcock
short term... Wood
long term... Smith
aviation... Apffel
marine... Apffel


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 13 mi49 min NE 7 G 8 23°F 1033.3 hPa13°F
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 25 mi49 min 23°F 1033.7 hPa
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 25 mi49 min 22°F 1034.1 hPa
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 33 mi67 min NNW 8.9 G 13 25°F 1035.9 hPa
YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY 36 mi67 min N 5.1 G 8.9 25°F 1034.2 hPa (+0.3)
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 46 mi67 min N 8.9 G 9.9 26°F 1034.9 hPa (+0.6)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
Last
24hr
NW24
NW25
N17
G25
N16
N13
G17
N15
G20
N13
G20
NW14
G18
NW11
G16
N17
G21
N12
G19
NW12
G19
N14
G18
NW13
G18
N14
G17
NW10
NW7
NW7
NW5
W5
W8
NW8
NE8
G11
NE6
1 day
ago
S2
S3
S3
W8
SW5
SW5
SW10
SW8
G13
SW9
SW11
SW12
W11
SW12
G15
SW10
G13
W14
W16
NW19
G27
NW17
G21
NW19
G24
NW16
G23
NW24
NW21
G27
N22
NW20
2 days
ago
S5
S7
S8
G11
S6
G9
S7
S5
S5
S6
S5
SW5
S3
S2
SW4
SW4
S2
SW4
SE4
SW3
N1
SE3
SE2
SW1
SW2

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Buffalo, Greater Buffalo International Airport, NY7 mi73 minNNE 410.00 miFair20°F12°F71%1035.2 hPa
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY24 mi74 minN 010.00 miFair21°F12°F68%1036 hPa

Wind History from BUF (wind in knots)
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
Last 24hrN19
G26
N13
G23
N17
G22
N13
G19
N15
G22
N14
G22
N10
G19
NW12
G21
W12NW10
G19
NW14
G18
NW15
G21
NW14
G19
NW13
G18
NW10NW7NW4CalmW4W3N3N4N4Calm
1 day agoSW5SW8SW7SW6SW6SW8SW11SW14SW17
G23
SW17SW17SW18
G27
W19
G29
SW14W9NW15
G23
NW13NW13
G23
NW15
G23
NW18N16
G20
NW17
G26
NW21
G27
NW17
G21
2 days agoS5S4S5SE6S3SW5SW6S9SW8SW10SW9SW8SW7SW7SW5SW4SW7SW5SW4SW3S3SW4SW3SW4

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (4,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.