Wednesday, November14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Elma Center, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 4:53PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 2:27 PM EST (19:27 UTC) Moonrise 12:53PMMoonset 10:53PM Illumination 42% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 631 Am Est Wed Nov 14 2018
Today..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Mostly Sunny.
Tonight..North winds less than 10 knots becoming east. Partly cloudy.
Thursday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Snow likely in the afternoon.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. Snow.
Friday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. Snow with rain likely during the day, then a chance of snow and rain Friday night.
Saturday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest less than 10 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers.
Sunday..West winds 10 knots or less. A chance of snow and rain showers during the day, then a chance of snow showers Sunday night. The water temperature off buffalo is 48 degrees.
LEZ020 Expires:201811141600;;288613 FZUS51 KBUF 141135 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 631 AM EST Wed Nov 14 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ020-141600-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elma Center, NY
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 42.86, -78.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kbuf 141825
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
125 pm est Wed nov 14 2018

Synopsis
Cold air will filter into the region through today behind a system
that is moving northeast into the canadian maritimes. This will
result in lake effect snow downwind of lake erie and lake
ontario on a northwest flow. Lake effect snow will taper off as
an area of high pressure moves into the northeast through
tonight. The next system will begin to impact the region late
Thursday and last through Friday.

Near term through tonight
Lake effect snow showers are winding down across western ny as
high pressure moves east across the ohio valley this afternoon.

Cold, northwest flow will continue to produce scattered snow
showers mainly across higher elevations south of the lake
plains. Inversion heights are lowering and therefore snow
showers are weakening. Up to an inch of additional snowfall is
expected. Winter weather advisories have been canceled.

High temperatures today will be in the upper 20s to low 30s
across the area, with areas of the tug hill in the mid 20s.

Tonight, an area of high pressure will center over lake ontario this
evening and then trek northeast along the st. Lawrence valley through
the night and center over northern new england by Thursday morning.

As this area of high pressure moves into the area, cloud cover will
start to diminish overnight, with partly to mostly cloudy skies
across the area. Low temperatures tonight will be in the upper teens
to low 20s for most areas, with higher terrain areas east of lake
ontario in the low teens.

Short term Thursday through Friday night
Main focus during this period remains with the retreating high and
approaching coastal storm. Models remaining similar suggesting a low-
mid 1030s high retreating northeast Thursday. An upper low will move
across the ohio tennessee valleys, developing a surface low along
the west side of the appalachians, which then transfers energy to a
new low on the coast, which heads up the coast to near long island by
12z Friday.

Precipitation shield associated with isentropic ascent looks to
reach the southern tier by Thursday afternoon, overspreading the
entire area by Thursday evening. The retreating high will continue
to supply cold air with precipitation initially falling as mainly
snow. The current track of the low will eventually force some warmer
air aloft in the 800-500mb layer which could allow for a brief
period of a wintry mix. Hard to pin down snowfall amounts with this
system with models showing variability in QPF and exact thermal
profiles will determine snow ratios, but it seems reasonable for few
inches of wet accumulation for most.

On Friday, weakening moisture depth as the system that will have
been moving northward toward our area fills and a coastal low takes
over combined with a low-level seclusion of warm air west of
the appalachian chain that bulges northward toward our area will
result in a gradual changeover to rain in most spots as the
boundary layer warms. Further, the reduction in the lifting
profile will also mean a switch from steady rainfall to drizzle
at some point. That said, this will be short-lived, as the
coastal low takes over and flow turns westerly again and
strengthens into the weekend. This should allow for colder
continental air to move back toward the area with some lake
effect showers.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
Broad upper level troughing will continue to dominate the great lakes
and northeastern states in the extended portion of the forecast...

resulting in a certainty of continued well below normal temperatures.

Speaking more specifically... We can expect daily highs to mostly be in
the 30s... While nightly lows range from the upper teens lower 20s across
the north country to the mid and upper 20s elsewhere. Such readings will
be more typical of mid-winter than the middle of november.

While below average temperatures remain a virtual lock in the long
term... The models have rather markedly diverged away from yesterday's
modest agreement on the path... Timing... And strength of any migratory
surface troughs that might affect our region during this time frame...

and by extension the orientation and strength of the resultant low
level wind field across our region at any given point. As such...

forecast confidence in the timing placement of both synoptically-
driven and lake-driven precipitation has significantly decreased...

and have therefore had to transition to the use of broadbrush chance
pops for the bulk of this period. Given current forecast temperatures...

the bulk of any precipitation will likely fall in the form of
snow.

Aviation 18z Wednesday through Monday
Expect mainlyVFR conditions outside of lake effect snows. These
will be southeast of the lakes, which will impact kjhw and kroc
at times tonight with a period of ifr or lower conditions
possible. A brief lake effect snow shower cannot be ruled out
at kbuf or kiag. Conditions will vary considerably with the
heavy lake effect snow likely to fall southeast of lake ontario
and between TAF sites. Otherwise, expect just lake effect clouds
which should remain in theVFR flight category.

Lake effect snows will become less organized late Wednesday
morning, with mainlyVFR conditions during the day at TAF sites.

Outlook...

Wednesday night and Thursday... MainlyVFR.

Thursday night and Friday... MVFR ifr possible in rain and or
wet snow.

Saturday and Sunday... MainlyVFR, but ifr possible
east of both lakes in lake rain and or snow.

Marine
An area of low pressure will deepen as it moves into the bay of st.

Lawrence through this morning. A northwest wind around this area of
low pressure bringing both winds and waves to small craft advisory
thresholds. High pressure will then cross the lakes today and bring
diminishing winds and waves on the lakes, with scas ending by this
evening. Another coastal low will bring the next snow rain potential
late Thursday into Friday.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for lez040-
041.

Small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for
loz043>045.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for
loz042.

Synopsis... Apffel sw
near term... Hsk sw
short term... Fries tma
long term... Jjr
aviation... Apffel hsk SW zaff
marine... Apffel SW zaff


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 13 mi40 min NW 12 G 19 33°F 44°F1033.1 hPa2°F
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 25 mi46 min 31°F 1033.1 hPa
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 25 mi40 min 33°F 1032.7 hPa
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 33 mi28 min WNW 8 G 13 32°F 1034.5 hPa (+0.3)
45142 - Port Colborne 35 mi88 min W 9.7 G 14 32°F 47°F3 ft1033.9 hPa (+0.1)
YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY 36 mi28 min NNW 8.9 G 12 33°F 1032.8 hPa (+0.3)
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 46 mi28 min W 8 G 9.9 31°F 1034.5 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
Last
24hr
NW16
NW11
G15
NW8
G11
W8
W13
G17
W17
W17
G21
W16
G24
W16
G21
W17
G22
W18
G23
W18
W19
G23
W18
G22
W18
G23
W19
G25
W20
W17
G24
W19
G23
W14
G18
W10
G17
W11
G17
W11
G24
W7
G13
1 day
ago
S6
G9
SE5
SE4
E3
E2
E3
SE3
E4
SE5
S7
E3
E4
E4
E1
N8
N4
N4
NW7
NW3
NW8
G12
NW10
NW11
G16
NW13
G19
NW14
2 days
ago
E3
E3
E4
E3
SE5
W4
W4
SE3
S14
G17
W4
SW4
W4
W4
E2
SE4
G7
SE5
E6
E3
SE3
SE6
S8
S7
G11
S7
G10
S7

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Buffalo, Greater Buffalo International Airport, NY7 mi34 minNNW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy34°F15°F46%1033.4 hPa
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY24 mi35 minNW 1210.00 miMostly Cloudy32°F15°F50%1034.2 hPa

Wind History from BUF (wind in knots)
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
Last 24hrN13NW6NW6W5W7W11W13
G23
W9W10
G19
W14
G20
W10
G20
W18W14
G18
W14
G23
W13W11
G20
W11W12W11W11W12W10
G16
W9N7
1 day agoSW7S6S4S4CalmCalmNE4SE4CalmS5S4SE3SE4CalmN5N3N4NW4NW4NW6NW9NW9NW11NW9
2 days agoS5S5SE4SE3SE6CalmCalmSE3SE5S6S4CalmCalmS5S6S4S4S3S5S4S5SW10SW10S8

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (14,3,4,5)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.