Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Corfu, NY
March 19, 2024 1:16 AM EDT (05:16 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:14 AM Sunset 7:25 PM Moonrise 12:49 PM Moonset 4:03 AM |
LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 1022 Pm Edt Mon Mar 18 2024
Rest of tonight - Northwest winds around 10 knots becoming west. Lake effect snow showers likely late this evening.
Tuesday - West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. Lake effect snow showers.
Tuesday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. Lake effect snow showers likely in the evening, then a chance of snow showers overnight.
Wednesday - West winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers.
Wednesday night - West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers in the evening.
Thursday - Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Partly to mostly cloudy.
Friday - East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. A chance of snow and rain showers during the day, then a chance of snow showers Friday night.
Saturday - North winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers during the day.
the water temperature off buffalo is 39 degrees.
the water temperature off buffalo is 39 degrees.
LEZ005
No data
No data
Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
  (hide/show)  HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KBUF 190239 AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1039 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
Cold air will deepen across the region this week, with several passing surface troughs producing occasional rounds of snow showers, graupel, and lake effect snow through Thursday. The greatest snow accumulations will be found across the higher terrain east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. The snow will most readily stick from around sunset through mid morning each day, with some melting during the daylight hours due to the high March sun angle. Temperatures will run below average through the end of the week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY EVENING/
Light to moderate snow across portions of the area, with the heavier snow east of Lake Ontario and lighter snow mainly across WNY south of I90 and over the higher terrain.
A weak shortwave ripple and associated cold front has mostly passed southward through the area this evening. While this will bring some reinforcing cold air (back down to around -12C), BUFKIT soundings indicate a brief drying of the DGZ within this colder airmass overnight and with a WNW flow prevailing, expecting the lake effect activity (especially off Lake Erie) to be rather weak and scattered in nature with the drier air pushing into the area along with the weakening forcing. That being said, sfc temps dipping into the 20s across the region will allow any additional snowfall to better stick to the grassy areas and untreated roads overnight. Spotty additional accumulations of an inch or so possible across much of the area east of Lake Erie, with an additional 2-4" across the Tug Hill.
Late tonight into Tuesday morning another shortwave trough will swing through the region from the west. This will cause the low-mid level steering flow to back from WNW to SW with additional saturation through the DGZ. Lake snows as a result will somewhat organize and be redirected east-northeast of the lakes including into the Buffalo Metro area by late Tuesday morning. By this point however deep diurnal mixing from the mid-March sun will likely cause this band to become relatively cellular in nature, and temps warming aloft behind the shortwave will cause EQLs to lower to around 6-7k feet, again limiting potential accumulations to around an additional inch or so northeast of Lake Erie with minor spotty accumulations elsewhere. Greater fetch over Lake Ontario should allow for another 1-3" depending on how quickly the band lifts northward. Sfc temps Tuesday will be similar to today, perhaps a few degrees warmer though blustery winds will lead to wind chills solidly in the 20s.
SHORT TERM /6 PM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Upper level trough with cold air advection will remain through this period, generating lake effect snow downwind of the Lakes. Diurnal effects of the higher March sun angle will limit snow totals through the daylight hours, with snow bands becoming disorganized and cellular.
Marginal temperatures aloft of -8 to -9C at 850 hPa Tuesday night will bring lake effect snow east of the Lakes. Snow around an inch or so east of Lake Erie, with initially deeper moisture over Lake Ontario leading to two to three inches of snow on the Tug Hill.
An mid level shortwave will pass across the region later Wednesday, with stronger cold air advection behind it. Scattered snow showers during the day Wednesday, in addition to localized lake effect snow, yet accumulations will range from a coating across the lower terrain, to an inch or two across higher terrain east of the Lakes.
The stronger cold air advection will briefly increase lake effect snow parameters east of the Lakes Wednesday night, however fleeting synoptic moisture will not allow for much band development. Could see 1-3 inches east of Lake Erie Wednesday night, and 2 to 4 inches east of Lake Ontario.
The diminishing moisture Thursday will allow for bands of snow southeast of the Lakes to fade to flurries through the afternoon hours.
It will be blustery at times this period, especially Wednesday and Wednesday night with the passing of the mid level shortwave. Gusts to 35 mph are likely near the Lakes. These winds could bring some limited blowing snow on the Tug Hill Wednesday night.
Below normal temperatures continue this period, especially on Thursday when despite increasing amounts of sunshine, daytime temperatures will struggle to rise above the freezing mark.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The upper level low will slowly exit our region to begin this period, but the jet stream will remain active. Friday a possible phasing of the northern and southern branch of the jet may yield a developing synoptic system over our region. This system may develop over or to our east, and with the models struggling with phasing this winter will not place high confidence in the storm as of yet.
If the storm does develop, accumulating snow, especially Finger Lakes eastward is possible.
Lake response behind this system looks to be brief, possibly into Saturday as heights increase aloft through the weekend. Another storm system ejecting out of the Rockies late in the weekend may bring a mix of snow changing to rain Monday along a warm front.
AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Cold air within a deep overhead trough will continue to flow over the lakes, supporting lake effect clouds and snow showers across the region through Tuesday. Cigs within these lake effect clouds are mainly MVFR between 2-3k feet, but some reductions to IFR at times.
A brief drying of the overhead airmass will support a mix of mainly MVFR conditions tonight with some periods of VFR conditions.
Scattered lake effect snow showers will likely continue and may support a few areas of IFR vsbys and/or cigs east of the lakes.
Winds begin to shift to the southwest Tuesday morning, directing the majority of the lake effect activity east-northeast of the lakes.
This will coincide with the increasing March sun angle, likely off- putting the organizing lake effect activity and causing it to become more cellular in nature. Confidence is low in exact timing and how low vsbys ultimately will get though it appears likely that KBUF and possibly KIAG will see a period of IFR conditions or lower in these snow showers for a period on Tuesday morning/afternoon.
Concurrently, SW wind gusts will likely approach 30kts at these terminals with gusts of 20-25kts elsewhere.
Outlook...
Tuesday night through Wednesday...Occasional lake effect snow showers with local/brief IFR conditions. MVFR/VFR outside of lake effect.
Thursday...MVFR/VFR with a chance of snow showers and associated brief/local IFR.
Friday...Mainly VFR with increasing chances for snow showers.
Friday night through Saturday...MVFR with chances for snow showers.
MARINE
Deep cyclonic flow across the lakes will maintain SCA conditions across the nearshore waters through at least Tuesday.
Breezy WNW winds will freshen and back to the southwest Tuesday morning. Sustained winds will likely approach 30kts across the open waters of Lake Erie for a period on Tuesday.
Winds will shift westerly and briefly subside late Tuesday night, before strengthening behind a cold front on Wednesday. Winds will likely approach gale force on Lake Ontario Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for LEZ040-041.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for LOZ042.
Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday night for LOZ042>045-062>065.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for LOZ043>045.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1039 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
Cold air will deepen across the region this week, with several passing surface troughs producing occasional rounds of snow showers, graupel, and lake effect snow through Thursday. The greatest snow accumulations will be found across the higher terrain east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. The snow will most readily stick from around sunset through mid morning each day, with some melting during the daylight hours due to the high March sun angle. Temperatures will run below average through the end of the week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY EVENING/
Light to moderate snow across portions of the area, with the heavier snow east of Lake Ontario and lighter snow mainly across WNY south of I90 and over the higher terrain.
A weak shortwave ripple and associated cold front has mostly passed southward through the area this evening. While this will bring some reinforcing cold air (back down to around -12C), BUFKIT soundings indicate a brief drying of the DGZ within this colder airmass overnight and with a WNW flow prevailing, expecting the lake effect activity (especially off Lake Erie) to be rather weak and scattered in nature with the drier air pushing into the area along with the weakening forcing. That being said, sfc temps dipping into the 20s across the region will allow any additional snowfall to better stick to the grassy areas and untreated roads overnight. Spotty additional accumulations of an inch or so possible across much of the area east of Lake Erie, with an additional 2-4" across the Tug Hill.
Late tonight into Tuesday morning another shortwave trough will swing through the region from the west. This will cause the low-mid level steering flow to back from WNW to SW with additional saturation through the DGZ. Lake snows as a result will somewhat organize and be redirected east-northeast of the lakes including into the Buffalo Metro area by late Tuesday morning. By this point however deep diurnal mixing from the mid-March sun will likely cause this band to become relatively cellular in nature, and temps warming aloft behind the shortwave will cause EQLs to lower to around 6-7k feet, again limiting potential accumulations to around an additional inch or so northeast of Lake Erie with minor spotty accumulations elsewhere. Greater fetch over Lake Ontario should allow for another 1-3" depending on how quickly the band lifts northward. Sfc temps Tuesday will be similar to today, perhaps a few degrees warmer though blustery winds will lead to wind chills solidly in the 20s.
SHORT TERM /6 PM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Upper level trough with cold air advection will remain through this period, generating lake effect snow downwind of the Lakes. Diurnal effects of the higher March sun angle will limit snow totals through the daylight hours, with snow bands becoming disorganized and cellular.
Marginal temperatures aloft of -8 to -9C at 850 hPa Tuesday night will bring lake effect snow east of the Lakes. Snow around an inch or so east of Lake Erie, with initially deeper moisture over Lake Ontario leading to two to three inches of snow on the Tug Hill.
An mid level shortwave will pass across the region later Wednesday, with stronger cold air advection behind it. Scattered snow showers during the day Wednesday, in addition to localized lake effect snow, yet accumulations will range from a coating across the lower terrain, to an inch or two across higher terrain east of the Lakes.
The stronger cold air advection will briefly increase lake effect snow parameters east of the Lakes Wednesday night, however fleeting synoptic moisture will not allow for much band development. Could see 1-3 inches east of Lake Erie Wednesday night, and 2 to 4 inches east of Lake Ontario.
The diminishing moisture Thursday will allow for bands of snow southeast of the Lakes to fade to flurries through the afternoon hours.
It will be blustery at times this period, especially Wednesday and Wednesday night with the passing of the mid level shortwave. Gusts to 35 mph are likely near the Lakes. These winds could bring some limited blowing snow on the Tug Hill Wednesday night.
Below normal temperatures continue this period, especially on Thursday when despite increasing amounts of sunshine, daytime temperatures will struggle to rise above the freezing mark.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The upper level low will slowly exit our region to begin this period, but the jet stream will remain active. Friday a possible phasing of the northern and southern branch of the jet may yield a developing synoptic system over our region. This system may develop over or to our east, and with the models struggling with phasing this winter will not place high confidence in the storm as of yet.
If the storm does develop, accumulating snow, especially Finger Lakes eastward is possible.
Lake response behind this system looks to be brief, possibly into Saturday as heights increase aloft through the weekend. Another storm system ejecting out of the Rockies late in the weekend may bring a mix of snow changing to rain Monday along a warm front.
AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Cold air within a deep overhead trough will continue to flow over the lakes, supporting lake effect clouds and snow showers across the region through Tuesday. Cigs within these lake effect clouds are mainly MVFR between 2-3k feet, but some reductions to IFR at times.
A brief drying of the overhead airmass will support a mix of mainly MVFR conditions tonight with some periods of VFR conditions.
Scattered lake effect snow showers will likely continue and may support a few areas of IFR vsbys and/or cigs east of the lakes.
Winds begin to shift to the southwest Tuesday morning, directing the majority of the lake effect activity east-northeast of the lakes.
This will coincide with the increasing March sun angle, likely off- putting the organizing lake effect activity and causing it to become more cellular in nature. Confidence is low in exact timing and how low vsbys ultimately will get though it appears likely that KBUF and possibly KIAG will see a period of IFR conditions or lower in these snow showers for a period on Tuesday morning/afternoon.
Concurrently, SW wind gusts will likely approach 30kts at these terminals with gusts of 20-25kts elsewhere.
Outlook...
Tuesday night through Wednesday...Occasional lake effect snow showers with local/brief IFR conditions. MVFR/VFR outside of lake effect.
Thursday...MVFR/VFR with a chance of snow showers and associated brief/local IFR.
Friday...Mainly VFR with increasing chances for snow showers.
Friday night through Saturday...MVFR with chances for snow showers.
MARINE
Deep cyclonic flow across the lakes will maintain SCA conditions across the nearshore waters through at least Tuesday.
Breezy WNW winds will freshen and back to the southwest Tuesday morning. Sustained winds will likely approach 30kts across the open waters of Lake Erie for a period on Tuesday.
Winds will shift westerly and briefly subside late Tuesday night, before strengthening behind a cold front on Wednesday. Winds will likely approach gale force on Lake Ontario Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for LEZ040-041.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for LOZ042.
Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday night for LOZ042>045-062>065.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for LOZ043>045.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY | 27 mi | 47 min | W 17G | 31°F | 44°F | 29.83 | 21°F | |
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY | 36 mi | 47 min | 31°F | 29.85 | ||||
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY | 36 mi | 77 min | WNW 24G | 33°F | 29.86 | |||
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY | 38 mi | 47 min | 31°F | 29.85 | ||||
YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY | 44 mi | 77 min | W 18G | 33°F | 29.84 | |||
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY | 48 mi | 47 min | 32°F | |||||
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY | 49 mi | 77 min | WNW 19G | 33°F | 29.85 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KGVQ GENESEE COUNTY,NY | 15 sm | 20 min | W 15G19 | 9 sm | Overcast | Lt Snow | 28°F | 21°F | 74% | 29.80 |
KBUF BUFFALO NIAGARA INTL,NY | 19 sm | 22 min | W 12G25 | 9 sm | Overcast | Lt Snow | 30°F | 18°F | 59% | 29.84 |
Buffalo, NY,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE