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Marine Weather and Tides
Version 3.4 |
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome. 10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name. |
| Sunrise 7:05AM | Sunset 5:47PM | Sunday February 17, 2019 8:40 PM EST (01:40 UTC) | Moonrise 3:28PM | Moonset 5:44AM | Illumination 98% |  |
LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 559 Pm Est Sun Feb 17 2019
Tonight..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Snow through the early overnight, then snow with a chance of freezing drizzle late.
Monday..North winds around 10 knots becoming northwest. Snow with a chance of freezing drizzle in the morning, then a chance of snow showers in the afternoon.
Monday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. A chance of flurries.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. Partly to mostly cloudy.
Wednesday..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Snow, sleet and freezing rain likely during the day, then rain, sleet and freezing rain likely Wednesday night.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west less than 10 knots. Mostly cloudy.
Friday..West winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Mostly cloudy. The water temperature off buffalo is 32 degrees.
Tonight..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Snow through the early overnight, then snow with a chance of freezing drizzle late.
Monday..North winds around 10 knots becoming northwest. Snow with a chance of freezing drizzle in the morning, then a chance of snow showers in the afternoon.
Monday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. A chance of flurries.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. Partly to mostly cloudy.
Wednesday..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Snow, sleet and freezing rain likely during the day, then rain, sleet and freezing rain likely Wednesday night.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west less than 10 knots. Mostly cloudy.
Friday..West winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Mostly cloudy. The water temperature off buffalo is 32 degrees.
LEZ020 Expires:201902180415;;097284
FZUS51 KBUF 172259
NSHBUF
Nearshore Marine Forecast
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
559 PM EST Sun Feb 17 2019
For waters within five nautical miles of shore
Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest
1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of
the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
LEZ020-180415-
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Corfu, NY
Hourly EDIT Helplocation: 42.89, -78.38 debug
Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
(on/off) Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition| Fxus61 kbuf 172333 afdbuf area forecast discussion national weather service buffalo ny 633 pm est Sun feb 17 2019 Synopsis Low pressure moves across the southern mid-atlantic states tonight and will bring a widespread accumulating snowfall that will persist into Monday morning. Some lake effect snow showers will then fill out Monday afternoon. A little freezing drizzle will also be possible south of lake ontario during the second half of tonight and Monday morning. Dry and cool conditions follow for Tuesday before more active weather returns Wednesday. Near term through Monday Regional radars display the leading bands of snow now spreading northward into the southern tier, with embedded segments producing snowfall rates up to an 1" per hour. Isentropic ascent in the 285-295k layer gradually increases and erodes a dry layer progressively this evening. This will produce a more widespread area of snow that will work its way across the region tonight. There is better model consensus on the track of the system from the 12z cycle today as compared to previous cycles, and with a track as such, some drying out of the dendritic layer seems more likely generally south of buffalo and rochester across the majority of the southern tier. This will allow for a few hours of snowfall before it starts to taper off to an utterly microphysically inefficient snow and mixes with or ends up as purely freezing drizzle. The freezing drizzle will be noted by a lack of moisture to efficiently produce snowflakes within the snow dendritic growth zone. As you go farther north into the area, saturation of the dendritic layer seems more likely, thus precipitation is more likely to remain as all snow. The rough dividing line still seems poised to be the thruway, so and the previous forecast captured this fairly well. All in all, though, a warm advection snow with the dendritic layer well off the ground and a high degree of riming seems unlikely to yield a terribly efficient snow anywhere. Thus, with ratios generally suppressed below 10 12:1 even in the areas that remain all snow, a very high upside QPF surprise would be necessary to eclipse advisory criteria. Favored QPF regimes slightly lower than the NAM and more in line with the GFS sref still yield near to or slightly less than 4 inches across the thruway corridor, so going advisories look to be in good shape. Farther south, less snow will yield to more freezing drizzle, so the advisories there still look to be prudent. Farther north, better saturation of the dendritic layer through the lifting period yields all snow, however with the best lift to the south, QPF still seems likely to limit snow accumulations below advisory criteria. The system departs on Monday, with weak northwesterly flow in its wake. Slight cold advection in the cold as well as additional instability seem likely to cool the column enough to saturate the dendritic layer so that freezing drizzle should transition back to snow showers or flurries everywhere. Temperatures look to remain below freezing across the board through the near term period even with a somewhat flat temperature curve across western new york during the overnight hours. Short term Monday night through Wednesday night Expansive surface high pressure centered over the northern plains will build across the upper portions of the mississippi valley and great lakes Monday night. A weakening northwest flow will result in some flurries and light snow showers, mainly along the south shore of lake ontario. It will be a noticeably colder night with low temperatures forecast to range from 10 to 15 under the blanket of lake induced clouds in the above described area, to the single digits in the southern tier and close to zero or just below zero for the north country. Surface high pressure will gradually slide through the region Tuesday. Conditions look marginally supportive for perhaps some very light lake effect snow showers or flurries, generally along the south shore of lake ontario. However, this lake effect potential will be tempered by limited moisture, weak boundary layer winds, and subsidence aloft. Otherwise, skies should become partly sunny with mainly sunny skies for the north country. The center of the high will drift off to the east during Tuesday night with subtle warm air advection developing on weak southwest flow during the night. This will bring about an end to any lingering light lake effect by evening, with high clouds increasing from the west. Latest guidance continues to point to Wednesday for the arrival of our next widespread precipitation event. A developing surface low will eject from the plains into the great lakes, spreading snow into western new york by late morning or early afternoon, then overspreading the remainder of the area through early Wednesday night. Precipitation type is going to become the main concern starting Wednesday afternoon and heading into Wednesday night |
as warmer air aloft arrives on a strengthening southwesterly low level jet. There looks to be a several hour period where sleet or freezing rain may become the predominant precipitation as a transitions to rain occurs, particularly west of the finger lakes. It stands to reason that some accumulating snow will be possible before the transition, or further north where the transition will occur later. Accumulations of snow or ice at this point do not look significant, but travel could certainly be impacted during this time frame, so will place this potential in the hazardous weather outlook product. Long term Thursday through Sunday On Thursday weak low pressure will track from southern ontario province into northern new england. The bulk of the precipitation will be done by Thursday, with some lingering mixed precipitation which will exit to the east late in the day. The cold front associated with this system will be weak, with latest model consensus only dropping 850mb temperatures to -9c which is not cold enough to support lake effect snow behind the system on Thursday night. This will be followed by high pressure which will build across the region Friday and Friday night. Some clouds may linger due to moisture trapped beneath an inversion, but it will be dry with highs in the mid to upper 30s on Friday. On Saturday a trough will dig into northern texas, with surface low pressure associated likely to track across the great lakes region on Sunday. The 12z GFS and some ensemble members flatten out this shortwave which would have a weak surface low pass to the south of the area. However, the 12z ECMWF ggem guidance track intensifying low pressure across the central great lakes, which is preferred given the better model and run to run agreement on this solution. Favorable jet dynamics may result in some light rain or snow on Saturday before a strengthening southerly flow advects warm and moist air and changes precipitation over to all rain south of lake ontario. Depending on the track of the system, snow or mixed precipitation may last a bit longer across the north country. This track would also be favorable for strong winds Saturday night and Sunday. Aviation 00z Monday through Friday For the 00z tafsVFR flight conditions will deteriorate to ifr over the next 2 to 4 hours south of lake ontario, and just past midnight east of lake ontario. A period of snow tonight will begin to taper off after 12z tomorrow. Drier air eroding the deeper moisture may allow for some mixing of freezing drizzle tonight, and this will be especially true across the so. Tier, including the kjhw terminal. Some patches of freezing drizzle cannot be ruled out across kbuf, kiag and kroc tonight. As a surface low tracks across the southern mid-atlantic winds will become northerly tomorrow with snow tapering off through the midday hours. Flight conditions will improve toVFR from north to south tomorrow afternoon. Outlook... Tuesday... Mainly dry with continued MVFR-level stratus during the day... Then improvement toVFR Tuesday night. Wednesday... Deterioration to MVFR ifr with light mixed precipitation becoming likely. Thursday...VFR MVFR with a chance of snow and rain showers. Friday...VFR. Marine A broad area of low pressure will push northeastward across the ohio valley this afternoon and evening... Before sliding eastward across the southern tier overnight... And then out to sea Monday morning. As it does so... Brisk northeasterly winds will develop across lake ontario through the overnight before finally turning more northerly and weakening on Monday. With this in mind... Small craft advisories have been hoisted for all nearshore zones along the south shore of lake ontario. Buf watches warnings advisories Ny... Winter weather advisory until 4 pm est Monday for nyz003>005- 013-014. Winter weather advisory until 1 pm est Monday for nyz001-002- 010>012-019>021-085. Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 pm est Monday for loz043. Small craft advisory until 4 pm est Monday for loz042. Small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 7 pm est Monday for loz044. Synopsis... Jjr thomas near term... Fries thomas short term... Tma long term... Apffel aviation... Thomas marine... Fries jjr |
Weather Reporting Stations
EDIT (on/off) Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | Pressure | DewPt |
| BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY | 27 mi | 52 min | NE 9.9 G 12 | 23°F | 32°F | 1012.5 hPa | 9°F | |
| NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY | 36 mi | 52 min | 22°F | 1012.9 hPa | ||||
| OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY | 36 mi | 40 min | E 19 G 23 | 24°F | 1014.6 hPa | |||
| PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY | 38 mi | 58 min | 24°F | 1010.9 hPa | ||||
| YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY | 44 mi | 40 min | ENE 8.9 G 16 | 23°F | 1012.5 hPa (-1.7) | |||
| RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY | 48 mi | 58 min | 26°F | |||||
| RPRN6 - Rochester, NY | 49 mi | 40 min | E 18 G 20 | 25°F |
Wind History for Buffalo, NY
(wind in knots) EDIT (on/off) Help| 9 PM | 10 PM | 11 PM | 12 AM | 1 AM | 2 AM | 3 AM | 4 AM | 5 AM | 6 AM | 7 AM | 8 AM | 9 AM | 10 AM | 11 AM | 12 PM | 1 PM | 2 PM | 3 PM | 4 PM | 5 PM | 6 PM | 7 PM | 8 PM | |
| Last 24hr | N | N G10 | N | N | N | N | N | N | E | E | NE | E G8 | E G11 | NE G11 | E G11 | NE G13 | NE G15 | NE G15 | NE G14 | E G13 | NE G13 | NE G13 | NE G16 | NE G16 |
| 1 day ago | W | W | W G23 | W G20 | SW | SW G23 | SW G23 | SW | SW | W G17 | W G16 | NW | NW G16 | NW G16 | NW | NW G15 | NW G16 | W G10 | NW G12 | NW | NW | NW | N | N |
| 2 days ago | S | S G16 | SE G9 | SE G10 | S | S | S G10 | SW G12 | S | SW G22 | S | S G22 | SW G22 | SW G25 | SW G26 | SW G26 | SW G30 | SW G27 | SW | SW G34 | SW G35 | SW G28 | SW G20 | SW G22 |
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Visibility | Sky/Weather | Temp | DewPt | Humidity | Pressure |
| Buffalo, Greater Buffalo International Airport, NY | 19 mi | 46 min | ENE 14 | 9.00 mi | Overcast | 22°F | 16°F | 78% | 1013 hPa |
Wind History from BUF (wind in knots)
| 9 PM | 10 PM | 11 PM | 12 AM | 1 AM | 2 AM | 3 AM | 4 AM | 5 AM | 6 AM | 7 AM | 8 AM | 9 AM | 10 AM | 11 AM | 12 PM | 1 PM | 2 PM | 3 PM | 4 PM | 5 PM | 6 PM | 7 PM | 8 PM | |
| Last 24hr | N | N | Calm | N | Calm | Calm | Calm | Calm | Calm | Calm | E | E | NE | NE | E | NE | E G16 | NE | NE | NE | E G19 | E | NE | NE |
| 1 day ago | W G20 | W G20 | W G24 | W | SW | SW G22 | W G24 | W G18 | W | W | W G17 | W | NW | W G19 | NW | W | W | NW | W G19 | N | NW | N | N | N |
| 2 days ago | S | S | S | SE | S | S | SW | SW G23 | SW | SW | SW | SW | SW G27 | SW G28 | SW G31 | SW G33 | SW G35 | SW G30 | SW G35 | SW G33 | SW G31 | W G34 | SW G30 | SW G20 |
Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop
Other links: Northern Pacific Contential US Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer: The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program. |