Sunrise 5:48 AM   Sunset 8:30 PM Moonrise 10:36 AM   Moonset 1:08 AM

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LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 1029 Am Edt Tue May 14 2024
This afternoon - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Tonight - Southwest winds less than 10 knots. Patchy fog. A chance of showers. Wednesday - Northeast winds 10 knots or less. Patchy fog in the morning. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Wednesday night - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers. Thursday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Partly to mostly cloudy. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of showers during the day, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms Friday night. Saturday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms during the day, then a chance of showers Saturday night.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off buffalo is 52 degrees.

LEZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 150241 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1041 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

SYNOPSIS
Unsettled weather will continue across the area through Wednesday as a frontal boundary stalls over the Lower Great Lakes, producing occasional showers and a few scattered thunderstorms. The greatest coverage of rain will be Wednesday afternoon well inland from the lakes, with lower coverage of showers close to Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Weak high pressure will build into the Lower Great Lakes Thursday with mainly dry weather before another front brings rain back to the region later Friday through Saturday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING/
A weak mid level circulation and associated vorticity maxima will drift north out of PA overnight, while a weak surface cold front will gradually move south out of southern Ontario into NY. This will provide an increase in low level convergence and eventually an area of showers across the Southern Tier and western Finger Lakes, with a few spotty showers still possible across the North Country as well.
Expect mainly dry weather overnight close to Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Patchy fog will develop overnight, especially in areas which received rainfall this past afternoon and evening.

Wednesday, the weak mid level circulation over northeast PA in the morning will consolidate into a mid level closed low near or just south of NYC by evening. Meanwhile, a weak surface front will continue to linger over NY through most of the day. Deep moisture and weak forcing will again combine with modest diurnal instability to support increasing showers and a few embedded thunderstorms through the day. The best coverage of rain will start from the Southern Tier into the Finger Lakes in the morning, then gradually spread north through the day. Similar to today, the lowest chance of rain will be close to Lake Erie and Lake Ontario where stable lake cooled air lowers instability. Flow will again be weak, supporting slow motion with any thunderstorms and the risk of locally heavy rainfall.

Wednesday night, showers will gradually diminish and end from northwest to southeast as high pressure surface and aloft moves from the Upper Great Lakes into the Lower Great Lakes overnight. Some patchy fog may develop again, especially in areas that receive rainfall.

SHORT TERM /6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Thursday, a mid level low will be starting the period just off the Virgina coastline. While most of the precipitation will be centered near this feature, a stationary boundary draped across eastern zones may trigger a few showers. Instability is minor, but still enough that a few rumbles of thunder are possible. Northeast flow over Lake Ontario will keep the southern shoreline in the low to mid 60s, otherwise most of the area will make a run at 70F.

As a mid level ridge builds towards our region Thursday night, any shower activity will quickly fade. Mainly dry for Thursday night.

Friday will become a little more active as a trough approaches the eastern Great Lakes. Ahead of this trough southwest flow of deeper moisture will fuel more coverage area to showers and perhaps a thunderstorm for Friday. Greatest coverage area will likely be Friday night as the trough of low pressure draws closer to our region.

Southerly flow Friday will aid in temperatures reaching into the 70s across the region.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Shower activity continues through most of the long term period. A trough moving through the area early Saturday will continue the potential for showers through the morning. As the trough departs to the east, shower activity will diminish through the day on Saturday.

The potential for showers will continue through the period, but to a lesser extent then Saturday morning as a few different systems pass by mainly to the north and south through the rest of the long term period. A larger trough and mid-level low over the mid-Atlantic will keep showers in or near the forecast area for much of the forecast period. The driest day as of now looks like Sunday, but there is still much variability among the models for the later portion of the long term and into the new work week.

Temperatures during the period will be mainly above normal with highs in the low to upper 70s for the lower elevations inland from the lakes. For the higher terrain and areas closest to the lakes with onshore winds highs will be in the low 60s to near 70.
Currently, Saturday will be the coolest day of the period, with some warmer temperatures for Sunday-Tuesday with most of the three days around the same temperatures for afternoon highs.

AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR conditions across the region late this evening will deteriorate overnight...as a stalled frontal boundary in the vcnty of Lake Ontario will drift south. CIGs will drop of to MVFR levels during the second half of the night...with IFR conditions in stratus and fog forecast for most of the TAF sites.

Wednesday, low stratus will continue much of the day, with areas of MVFR and local IFR CIGS persisting. Showers will again increase in coverage, with the greatest coverage of rain across inland areas and the lowest coverage close to Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. A few spotty thunderstorms may develop in the afternoon again.

Outlook...

Wednesday night...Showers gradually ending. Areas of MVFR/IFR in low stratus and patchy fog.
Thursday...VFR.
Friday...VFR. A chance of showers late.
Saturday...Areas of MVFR with showers likely.
Sunday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers.

MARINE
Generally light winds will continue through the remainder of the week. Winds will become northeast overnight through Wednesday and increase into the 10-14 knot range on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, producing choppy conditions at times. Light winds will return Thursday as weak high pressure builds over the eastern Great Lakes.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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