Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Yankton, SD
March 19, 2024 12:38 AM CDT (05:38 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:28 AM Sunset 7:39 PM Moonrise 1:08 PM Moonset 4:21 AM |
Area Discussion for - Sioux Falls, SD
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FXUS63 KFSD 190354 AFDFSD
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1054 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Relative humidity (RH) recovers into the 30-40% range Tuesday afternoon. Winds will be northwesterly gusting to 25-30 mph.
Grassland fire danger index will remain in the High to very high category, but due to the higher RH, no headlines are planned at this time.
- A push of cold air Tuesday into Wednesday will result int temperatures slightly below normal Wednesday through next weekend.
- Confidence is increasing in precipitation beginning late Wednesday night through into the early part of next week.
- Uncertainty remains high for the weekend and early week precipitation forecast. Those with weekend travel plans will want to continue to monitor the latest forecast for the most up to date information.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 232 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
THIS AFTERNOON: Some scattered high stratus will drift in from the north this afternoon on the backside of a high pressure that moved through the area today. A low pressure system over Manitoba will drag a cold front through the area beginning late this evening into the overnight hours. Lows for tonight will be in the 20-30s.
TUESDAY: Winds at the surface will turn to the northwest and will increase with a push of CAA behind the front. Look for winds to be around 10 mph increasing to 15-20 mph in the afternoon. Good mixing will help us to tap into the stronger winds in the 850-800 mb level, resulting in afternoon gusts 25-30 mph. Dew points recover overnight and settle into the mid to upper 20s by afternoon. Relative Humidity (RH) recovers on pace with dew points, with minimum RH for the afternoon in the 30-40% range. Despite the CAA, highs will still warm into upper 40s to 50s, with 60s along the Missouri River and southward. Grassland fire danger index remains in the High to Very High category, but thanks to the higher RH it does not look like we will meet minimum requirements for a Fire Weather headline as of this forecast package. Should we mix down more of the drier air aloft, dew points and RH may decrease enough to warrant a headline.
This will need to be monitored throughout the afternoon.
Significantly cooler lows for Tuesday night, teens to 20s.
WEDNESDAY: Moisture flows in from the northwest for Wednesday, increasing RH and easing grassland fire danger index into the Moderate to High category. Continued CAA cools temperatures at the 850 mb level into the negative single digits Celsius. Highs for Wednesday will be slightly cooler than average, in the 30 to low 40s. Lows will be in the low to upper 20s, with the coldest temperatures for both highs and lows across southwestern Minnesota. Throughout the day an inverted trough will push into the area from the northwest. This will set the stage for an active pattern that will persist into early next week. Bufkit soundings indicate the column will saturate from the top down through the afternoon and evening hours Wednesday. Saturation in the DGZ could spawn some light snow showers as early as Wednesday evening. However, there is a stout dry layer beneath the stratus deck, which will need to saturate out before we'll see anything reach the ground. Deterministic and ensemble guidance are split on Wednesday evening light precipitation chances, with the GFS and EC only indicating a 10-30% probability of measurable precipitation (24 Hr QPF >= 0.01 in).
THURSDAY and BEYOND: Currently, it looks like full column saturation will happen during the overnight hours into Thursday morning. Here the guidance begins to converge on 80-100% probability of precipitation beginning Thursday. The majority of this first wave of precipitation will fall along and north of I-90, but as far south as Highway 20 still has a 50-80% probability of measurable precipitation. Thursday evening a short wave and surface low moves out of Wyoming and into western South Dakota. This wave has a much more focused area of frontogenesis, and therefore a higher probability of producing precipitation. There remains slight variance on the amplitude of the upper trough and surface low track, but the three main models indicate high probability (70-100%) of precipitation across the region for Thursday night into Friday morning, with southwestern Minnesota having the best probability (70-100%) to see QPF up to a tenth of an inch.
A lull follows Friday evening into Saturday morning before a strong push of WAA triggers another round of precipitation Saturday evening into Sunday. At the same time, a stronger upper wave digs south as it moves onshore over the Pacific Northwest. A strong surface low will then eject out onto the central plains out of New Mexico and Colorado by late Sunday night. There is a fair amount of variance in solutions, but guidance is in good agreement that a stronger precipitation event will unfold for Monday and Tuesday. Please note: the systems responsible for the upcoming precipitation are still off shore over the Pacific Ocean. There remains high uncertainty in the details and there will be changes to this forecast in the coming days as things move closer to shore and are better sampled. But confidence is beginning to increase that we will see multiple days of precipitation, likely in the form of snow, possibly interspersed with mixed precipitation or rain south of I-90.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1053 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
VFR conditions will prevail at TAF sites through Wednesday.
Southwest winds shift northwest after 06z behind a passing cold front. LLWS lingers through 09-11z as 40-50 kt a low level jet max slides southeast through the region.
Northwest winds strengthen again Wednesday morning with gusts in the 20s by Wednesday afternoon. Low to mid VFR stratus seep into southwest MN, parts of east central SD and northwest IA by 12z.
Could see occasional MVFR ceilings in southwest MN before clouds scatter out Tuesday afternoon.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1054 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Relative humidity (RH) recovers into the 30-40% range Tuesday afternoon. Winds will be northwesterly gusting to 25-30 mph.
Grassland fire danger index will remain in the High to very high category, but due to the higher RH, no headlines are planned at this time.
- A push of cold air Tuesday into Wednesday will result int temperatures slightly below normal Wednesday through next weekend.
- Confidence is increasing in precipitation beginning late Wednesday night through into the early part of next week.
- Uncertainty remains high for the weekend and early week precipitation forecast. Those with weekend travel plans will want to continue to monitor the latest forecast for the most up to date information.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 232 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
THIS AFTERNOON: Some scattered high stratus will drift in from the north this afternoon on the backside of a high pressure that moved through the area today. A low pressure system over Manitoba will drag a cold front through the area beginning late this evening into the overnight hours. Lows for tonight will be in the 20-30s.
TUESDAY: Winds at the surface will turn to the northwest and will increase with a push of CAA behind the front. Look for winds to be around 10 mph increasing to 15-20 mph in the afternoon. Good mixing will help us to tap into the stronger winds in the 850-800 mb level, resulting in afternoon gusts 25-30 mph. Dew points recover overnight and settle into the mid to upper 20s by afternoon. Relative Humidity (RH) recovers on pace with dew points, with minimum RH for the afternoon in the 30-40% range. Despite the CAA, highs will still warm into upper 40s to 50s, with 60s along the Missouri River and southward. Grassland fire danger index remains in the High to Very High category, but thanks to the higher RH it does not look like we will meet minimum requirements for a Fire Weather headline as of this forecast package. Should we mix down more of the drier air aloft, dew points and RH may decrease enough to warrant a headline.
This will need to be monitored throughout the afternoon.
Significantly cooler lows for Tuesday night, teens to 20s.
WEDNESDAY: Moisture flows in from the northwest for Wednesday, increasing RH and easing grassland fire danger index into the Moderate to High category. Continued CAA cools temperatures at the 850 mb level into the negative single digits Celsius. Highs for Wednesday will be slightly cooler than average, in the 30 to low 40s. Lows will be in the low to upper 20s, with the coldest temperatures for both highs and lows across southwestern Minnesota. Throughout the day an inverted trough will push into the area from the northwest. This will set the stage for an active pattern that will persist into early next week. Bufkit soundings indicate the column will saturate from the top down through the afternoon and evening hours Wednesday. Saturation in the DGZ could spawn some light snow showers as early as Wednesday evening. However, there is a stout dry layer beneath the stratus deck, which will need to saturate out before we'll see anything reach the ground. Deterministic and ensemble guidance are split on Wednesday evening light precipitation chances, with the GFS and EC only indicating a 10-30% probability of measurable precipitation (24 Hr QPF >= 0.01 in).
THURSDAY and BEYOND: Currently, it looks like full column saturation will happen during the overnight hours into Thursday morning. Here the guidance begins to converge on 80-100% probability of precipitation beginning Thursday. The majority of this first wave of precipitation will fall along and north of I-90, but as far south as Highway 20 still has a 50-80% probability of measurable precipitation. Thursday evening a short wave and surface low moves out of Wyoming and into western South Dakota. This wave has a much more focused area of frontogenesis, and therefore a higher probability of producing precipitation. There remains slight variance on the amplitude of the upper trough and surface low track, but the three main models indicate high probability (70-100%) of precipitation across the region for Thursday night into Friday morning, with southwestern Minnesota having the best probability (70-100%) to see QPF up to a tenth of an inch.
A lull follows Friday evening into Saturday morning before a strong push of WAA triggers another round of precipitation Saturday evening into Sunday. At the same time, a stronger upper wave digs south as it moves onshore over the Pacific Northwest. A strong surface low will then eject out onto the central plains out of New Mexico and Colorado by late Sunday night. There is a fair amount of variance in solutions, but guidance is in good agreement that a stronger precipitation event will unfold for Monday and Tuesday. Please note: the systems responsible for the upcoming precipitation are still off shore over the Pacific Ocean. There remains high uncertainty in the details and there will be changes to this forecast in the coming days as things move closer to shore and are better sampled. But confidence is beginning to increase that we will see multiple days of precipitation, likely in the form of snow, possibly interspersed with mixed precipitation or rain south of I-90.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1053 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
VFR conditions will prevail at TAF sites through Wednesday.
Southwest winds shift northwest after 06z behind a passing cold front. LLWS lingers through 09-11z as 40-50 kt a low level jet max slides southeast through the region.
Northwest winds strengthen again Wednesday morning with gusts in the 20s by Wednesday afternoon. Low to mid VFR stratus seep into southwest MN, parts of east central SD and northwest IA by 12z.
Could see occasional MVFR ceilings in southwest MN before clouds scatter out Tuesday afternoon.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KYKN CHAN GURNEY MUNI,SD | 2 sm | 42 min | SSW 08 | 10 sm | Clear | 43°F | 10°F | 26% | 29.88 |
Sioux falls, SD,
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