Thursday, March21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Flint, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:34AMSunset 7:49PM Thursday March 21, 2019 11:49 AM EDT (15:49 UTC) Moonrise 7:44PMMoonset 7:18AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 1003 Am Edt Thu Mar 21 2019
Rest of today..Light and variable winds becoming west 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and overnight. Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of light rain after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Gusts to 30 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Cloudy with a slight chance of light snow in the morning, then partly cloudy in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet. A small craft advisory may be needed.
Friday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Wave heights are for ice free areas. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:201903212130;;701092 FZUS53 KDTX 211403 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1003 AM EDT Thu Mar 21 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-212130-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Flint, MI
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location: 43.02, -83.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 211058
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
658 am edt Thu mar 21 2019

Aviation
Extensive low stratus will remain firmly entrenched over southeast
michigan today. This will be accompanied a component of dense fog
this morning. This will translate into widespread lifr ifr
conditions early today. Emerging light northwest wind in the wake of
this system will introduce some modest daytime mixing, allowing both
cigs and visibility to gradually lift with time through the
afternoon. Greatest window forVFR conditions will exist this
evening in advance of a cold front. This frontal passage will be
accompanied by another round of MVFR stratus, along with the
possibility for a few light snow showers early Friday morning.

For dtw... Existing low stratus and dense fog likely to hold firm
into the late morning period. Improving conditions by midday as
greater mixing emerges in light northwest flow.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* high in CIGS vsby below 200 ft and or 1 2 mile through late
morning.

* high in ceilings below 5000 ft today. Medium tonight.

Prev discussion
Issued at 336 am edt Thu mar 21 2019
discussion...

near term today through tonight
as of 335 am edt... Cyclonic flow associated with a closed midlevel
circulation over southern lake michigan continues to help promote
areas of drizzle early this morning, with an enhanced region of
deformation resulting in a band of more persistent rain showers over
central portions of southeast michigan. Temperatures have been
holding steady in the mid upper 30s, and with thick low stratus and
some patchy fog as well, expecting temperatures to hold steady the
remainder of the night resulting in a limited potential for wet
snowflakes to mix in at times. Where wet snowflakes are able to mix
in, most likely north of the m-59 corridor, no accumulation is
expected.

The midlevel low will slowly move east during the morning hours,
with lingering drizzle light rain showers gradually ending from west
to east and drier conditions anticipated by the early afternoon.

Cloud cover will remain plentiful for much of the day until peak
daytime heating can result in a deepening boundary layer that will
mix out enough cloud cover to allow for some peaks of Sun towards
this evening. Despite the cloud cover, high temperatures should have
no issue warming into the mid 40s for most areas with the elevated
head start this morning, with upper 40s possible south of the m-59
corridor.

Deepening longwave troughing over the eastern seaboard will keep
southeast michigan on the westward edge as a secondary surge of
northern stream PV races south towards the eastern great lakes
tonight. Cyclogenesis off DELMARVA will help pull the bulk of
available moisture eastward, but enough low-level moisture looks to
remain in place to promote scattered rain snow showers primarily
across the eastern thumb. Low temperatures tonight will settle in
the low mid 30s.

Short term Friday through Sunday
rain snow showers will linger through Friday morning over eastern
areas as a series of cold fronts move south over the region. The
secondary front will bring a surge of colder low-level air
characterized by 850 hpa temps falling to around -10 c, which will
limit high temperatures to the mid 30s north to lower 40s south. The
cold air advection, coupled with a tightening pressure gradient
resulting from the aforementioned deepening east coast low, will
result in gusty northwesterly flow developing in an increasingly
well-mixed boundary layer. Gusts 20-30 mph will be common and will
add a bite to the air to let us know that although it is spring, we
are still not too far removed from winter.

Surface high pressure and rising heights aloft will then prevail
over the great lakes for most of the weekend, resulting in a period
of dry weather and abundant sunshine. Thermal trough from Friday
will exit Saturday allowing for temperatures to begin a moderating
trend into the 40s Saturday and possibly low 50s Sunday.

Long term Sunday night through Wednesday
a cold front sagging south across the region will interact with
southern stream energy ejecting out of the central plains Sunday
night into Monday with a period of scattered rain snow showers.

Depending on the timing of the precipitation, some areas that
transition to snow fastest may see some minor accumulations. The
front will exit south of the region Monday afternoon with broad high
pressure building in its wake bringing another period of dry and
quiet weather heading into midweek. Temperatures will initially
start out below normal with highs in the 30s to lower 40s Monday and
Tuesday, but quickly moderate to seasonable levels by midweek.

Marine...

modest winds will exist across the region through the evening. A
period of stronger northwest winds will then emerge overnight into
Friday. Potential exists for gusts to reach low end gales Friday and
Friday night, prompting the issuance of a gale watch for portions of
lake huron. Steady decline in northwest wind Saturday as high
pressure builds into the region. This high will maintain benign
conditions with lighter winds through the weekend.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Gale watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for lhz362-
363-441>443-462>464.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Mr
discussion... Irl
marine... ... .Mr
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 55 mi49 min NW 6 G 7 34°F 1012.9 hPa (+0.4)
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 57 mi49 min NW 5.1 G 8 41°F 1013.2 hPa (+0.3)

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Flint, Bishop International Airport, MI3 mi56 minNW 81.00 miFog/Mist36°F35°F97%1014.3 hPa
Owosso, Owosso Community Airport, MI24 mi54 minNW 60.50 miFog37°F36°F97%1013.5 hPa

Wind History from FNT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW9SW15
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SW11S9S7S8S7SE5SE8SE6SE7S5CalmS4S3CalmW3NW4N5NW4NW5NW5NW6NW8
1 day agoW436SW11
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SW7SW12SW8SW7SW4W5W6SW5S5S7S7S6S6S7S7S7S8S8S8SW9
2 days agoW4W8W6W10W9W11W8SW5SW4SW4W5W5W4SW5SW4CalmSW3SW3CalmCalmS4CalmSW4SW6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.