Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Boscobel, WI
March 18, 2024 9:02 PM CDT (02:02 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:06 AM Sunset 7:14 PM Moonrise 11:35 AM Moonset 3:12 AM |
Area Discussion for - La Crosse, WI
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FXUS63 KARX 182337 AFDARX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 637 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Elevated Fire Weather Conditions through Wednesday; still quite dry east of the Mississippi River Thursday.
- Warmer and windy for Tuesday
- Accumulating snow continues to look likely from Thursday night into Friday (70-100%). Snow amounts at this time look to be 1 to 4 inches with the lesser amounts north of I94 and toward central IA.
- From this weekend into early next week, still a lot of uncertainty related to storm track, temperatures, precipitation types, and amounts, but could be an impactful storm.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Today - Tuesday:
Current satellite imagery this afternoon shows clouds continuing to diminish across the forecast area leading to sunny skies and temperatures that are slowly beginning to rise into the 30s. A system is set to track down into the Great Lakes tonight into Tuesday. Ahead of it winds turn southwesterly with broad low level WAA. Model soundings still suggest fairly limited moisture (mainly mid/upper levels) to work on over the local forecast area, but will not rule out the possibility for some flurries north/east of I-94.
With the passage of an attendant frontal boundary Tuesday morning, winds turn back to the northwest with winds increasing 15 to 20 kts and wind gusts 25 to 35 kts possible into Tuesday afternoon. Though windy, the current forecast looks to put Tuesday as the warmest day of the week with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s.
Cooler again Wednesday and Thursday with elevated fire weather conditions:
We remain under northwest flow aloft Wednesday with cold air advection and continued dry conditions. Temperatures drop to below normal with highs in the 20s and 30. Northwest winds continue 15 to 25 mph with lowest relative humidities 15 to 25 percent. Surface high pressure builds in for Thursday with relative humidities remaining low; 15 to 25% east of the Mississippi River, winds will not be as strong. See FIRE WEATHER section for details.
Moisture advection returns Thursday across parts of Minnesota and Iowa. At this time dry air remains in place, so have lowered pops for Thursday afternoon and delayed the onset of precipitation.
Thursday night into the weekend and early next week:
An active weather pattern develops late this week into the weekend. A trough will rotate across Canada and this will tap into moisture from the Pacific Northwest. An upper level jet will be over the U.P. with upper level divergence in the right rear entrance region over Minnesota. Initial area of warm air advection develops over the Plains. The thermal profiles are cold enough for snow, thus snow over the Plains with spread east across Minnesota into Wisconsin with a potential mix for parts of northeast Iowa. Based on snow ratios of 12-17:1 and the 25th percentile is around 0.10-30" and the 75th percentile is 0.30" to 0.50". This gives still a broad range of 1 to 2" to 7".
Temperatures will initially be warm and the dry air may limit accumulations at onset. The bulk of the accumulations are expected Thursday night and will linger into Friday morning.
Impacts would be due to the accumulating snow, the potential for snow-covered roads, and icy spots for the Friday morning commute.
Temperatures remain below normal Friday with highs in the 30s.
There are still a variety of solutions for the weekend storm system into early next week as the northwest aloft pattern changes to a southwest flow aloft. We initially start off cold with light snow after the region Sunday, however the models differ on the track of the storm features and how far north the warm air will make it and even the potential for mixed precipitation and thunderstorms. It very well could be an impactful storm. The EC means are in the 2-4 inch range, however the breadth and range had several 4-8" plus amounts. The GFS ensembles have even larger ranges with several 9 to 15 inch snow amounts at KLSE. The storm system continue to affect the area into early next week with various precipitation types over the area. Stay tuned over the next few days as we continue to utilize more of the high resolution data and hone in on the track.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 630 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
VFR conditions are forecast for the TAF period, though low VFR ceilings creep into southeast Minnesota and central Wisconsin early Tuesday morning before lifting. Southwesterly winds increase overnight, with the biggest uncertainty being whether lower elevations will mix out. Given that these valley sites have already decoupled and the warm air advection aloft may aid to strengthen the low-level inversion, odds look to be better that these sites will see LLWS. A front sweeps through early in the morning and causes winds to shift to the northwest for the day and increase to 15-20G20-30kts by the afternoon.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Elevated Fire Weather Conditions through Wednesday and through Thursday east of the Mississippi River
Gusty winds 25 to 35mph+ Tuesday with above normal temperatures and 30-40% relative humidities of 30 to 40 percent. Drier for Wednesday and still breezy with cooler temperatures, but lower relative humidity values as low as 15%. The dry conditions continue through Thursday east of the Mississippi Valley with relative humidities as low as 15 to 25%.
Drought areas with dry grasses will be susceptible to the spread of fires due to the winds each day.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 637 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Elevated Fire Weather Conditions through Wednesday; still quite dry east of the Mississippi River Thursday.
- Warmer and windy for Tuesday
- Accumulating snow continues to look likely from Thursday night into Friday (70-100%). Snow amounts at this time look to be 1 to 4 inches with the lesser amounts north of I94 and toward central IA.
- From this weekend into early next week, still a lot of uncertainty related to storm track, temperatures, precipitation types, and amounts, but could be an impactful storm.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Today - Tuesday:
Current satellite imagery this afternoon shows clouds continuing to diminish across the forecast area leading to sunny skies and temperatures that are slowly beginning to rise into the 30s. A system is set to track down into the Great Lakes tonight into Tuesday. Ahead of it winds turn southwesterly with broad low level WAA. Model soundings still suggest fairly limited moisture (mainly mid/upper levels) to work on over the local forecast area, but will not rule out the possibility for some flurries north/east of I-94.
With the passage of an attendant frontal boundary Tuesday morning, winds turn back to the northwest with winds increasing 15 to 20 kts and wind gusts 25 to 35 kts possible into Tuesday afternoon. Though windy, the current forecast looks to put Tuesday as the warmest day of the week with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s.
Cooler again Wednesday and Thursday with elevated fire weather conditions:
We remain under northwest flow aloft Wednesday with cold air advection and continued dry conditions. Temperatures drop to below normal with highs in the 20s and 30. Northwest winds continue 15 to 25 mph with lowest relative humidities 15 to 25 percent. Surface high pressure builds in for Thursday with relative humidities remaining low; 15 to 25% east of the Mississippi River, winds will not be as strong. See FIRE WEATHER section for details.
Moisture advection returns Thursday across parts of Minnesota and Iowa. At this time dry air remains in place, so have lowered pops for Thursday afternoon and delayed the onset of precipitation.
Thursday night into the weekend and early next week:
An active weather pattern develops late this week into the weekend. A trough will rotate across Canada and this will tap into moisture from the Pacific Northwest. An upper level jet will be over the U.P. with upper level divergence in the right rear entrance region over Minnesota. Initial area of warm air advection develops over the Plains. The thermal profiles are cold enough for snow, thus snow over the Plains with spread east across Minnesota into Wisconsin with a potential mix for parts of northeast Iowa. Based on snow ratios of 12-17:1 and the 25th percentile is around 0.10-30" and the 75th percentile is 0.30" to 0.50". This gives still a broad range of 1 to 2" to 7".
Temperatures will initially be warm and the dry air may limit accumulations at onset. The bulk of the accumulations are expected Thursday night and will linger into Friday morning.
Impacts would be due to the accumulating snow, the potential for snow-covered roads, and icy spots for the Friday morning commute.
Temperatures remain below normal Friday with highs in the 30s.
There are still a variety of solutions for the weekend storm system into early next week as the northwest aloft pattern changes to a southwest flow aloft. We initially start off cold with light snow after the region Sunday, however the models differ on the track of the storm features and how far north the warm air will make it and even the potential for mixed precipitation and thunderstorms. It very well could be an impactful storm. The EC means are in the 2-4 inch range, however the breadth and range had several 4-8" plus amounts. The GFS ensembles have even larger ranges with several 9 to 15 inch snow amounts at KLSE. The storm system continue to affect the area into early next week with various precipitation types over the area. Stay tuned over the next few days as we continue to utilize more of the high resolution data and hone in on the track.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 630 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
VFR conditions are forecast for the TAF period, though low VFR ceilings creep into southeast Minnesota and central Wisconsin early Tuesday morning before lifting. Southwesterly winds increase overnight, with the biggest uncertainty being whether lower elevations will mix out. Given that these valley sites have already decoupled and the warm air advection aloft may aid to strengthen the low-level inversion, odds look to be better that these sites will see LLWS. A front sweeps through early in the morning and causes winds to shift to the northwest for the day and increase to 15-20G20-30kts by the afternoon.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Elevated Fire Weather Conditions through Wednesday and through Thursday east of the Mississippi River
Gusty winds 25 to 35mph+ Tuesday with above normal temperatures and 30-40% relative humidities of 30 to 40 percent. Drier for Wednesday and still breezy with cooler temperatures, but lower relative humidity values as low as 15%. The dry conditions continue through Thursday east of the Mississippi Valley with relative humidities as low as 15 to 25%.
Drought areas with dry grasses will be susceptible to the spread of fires due to the winds each day.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KOVS BOSCOBEL,WI | 2 sm | 69 min | SW 06 | Clear | 36°F | 12°F | 38% | 30.06 | ||
KPDC PRAIRIE DU CHIEN MUNI,WI | 24 sm | 27 min | WSW 06 | 10 sm | Clear | 32°F | 12°F | 43% | 30.06 |
La Crosse, WI,
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