Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hamlin, NY
March 19, 2024 3:32 AM EDT (07:32 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:12 AM Sunset 7:23 PM Moonrise 12:45 PM Moonset 4:03 AM |
LOZ042 Niagara River To Hamlin Beach Along Lake Ontario- 1022 Pm Edt Mon Mar 18 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday evening - .
.gale watch in effect from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday night - .
Rest of tonight - Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. A chance of snow showers late this evening. A chance of snow showers late. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Tuesday - West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest. Lake effect snow showers likely. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tuesday night - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. A chance of snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Wednesday - West winds 15 to 25 knots increasing to 30 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 7 to 10 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Wednesday night - West gales to 35 knots becoming northwest and diminishing to 30 knots overnight. A chance of snow showers. Waves 7 to 11 feet. Waves occasionally around 14 feet.
Thursday - Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming north and diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day. Waves 6 to 9 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Friday - Northeast winds 10 knots or less. A chance of snow showers. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday - Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north. A chance of snow and rain showers during the day. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
LOZ005
No data
No data
Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
  (hide/show)  HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KBUF 190603 AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 203 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
Cold air will deepen across the region this week, with several passing surface troughs producing occasional rounds of snow showers, graupel, and lake effect snow through Thursday. The greatest snow accumulations will be found across the higher terrain east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. The snow will most readily stick from around sunset through mid morning each day, with some melting during the daylight hours due to the high March sun angle. Temperatures will run below average through the end of the week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Have significantly raised pops east of Lake Ontario where a broad area of light to occasionally moderate upslope snow has developed within the northwest flow. Additional snowfall amounts in this area through daybreak will be an inch or two...meanwhile negligible accumulations of light lake snow will be found southeast of Lake Erie.
A sub 100mb sfc low in the vcnty of Lake Superior at daybreak will slowly drift east during the course of the day
In the process
an elevated warm front will make its way across our forecast area along with a swath of deeper moisture. Frontogenetic lift associated with the elevated boundary should be enough to generate fairly widespread snow showers during the course of the day...esp east/northeast of the lakes where pure lake effect will give way to synoptic forcing and act as an enhancing feature due to H85 temps 'warming' to -8c.
This will effectively eliminate the lake induced instability.
Snowfall amounts throughout the region for the upcoming day will generally range from one to two inches...although higher amounts could be found near and south of the Tug Hill. Amounts will be most insignificant (an inch or less) over the Finger Lakes region.
Otherwise today will continue to feature below normal temperatures peaking in the low to mid 30s...while a modest 35 knot low level jet will support widespread wind gusts of at least 30 mph.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Upper level trough with cold air advection will remain through this period, generating lake effect snow downwind of the Lakes. Diurnal effects of the higher March sun angle will limit snow totals through the daylight hours, with snow bands becoming disorganized and cellular.
Marginal temperatures aloft of -8 to -9C at 850 hPa Tuesday night will bring lake effect snow east of the Lakes. Snow around an inch or so east of Lake Erie, with initially deeper moisture over Lake Ontario leading to two to three inches of snow on the Tug Hill.
An mid level shortwave will pass across the region later Wednesday, with stronger cold air advection behind it. Scattered snow showers during the day Wednesday, in addition to localized lake effect snow, yet accumulations will range from a coating across the lower terrain, to an inch or two across higher terrain east of the Lakes.
The stronger cold air advection will briefly increase lake effect snow parameters east of the Lakes Wednesday night, however fleeting synoptic moisture will not allow for much band development. Could see 1-3 inches east of Lake Erie Wednesday night, and 2 to 4 inches east of Lake Ontario.
The diminishing moisture Thursday will allow for bands of snow southeast of the Lakes to fade to flurries through the afternoon hours.
It will be blustery at times this period, especially Wednesday and Wednesday night with the passing of the mid level shortwave. Gusts to 35 mph are likely near the Lakes. These winds could bring some limited blowing snow on the Tug Hill Wednesday night.
Below normal temperatures continue this period, especially on Thursday when despite increasing amounts of sunshine, daytime temperatures will struggle to rise above the freezing mark.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
The upper level low will slowly exit our region to begin this period, but the jet stream will remain active. Friday a possible phasing of the northern and southern branch of the jet may yield a developing synoptic system over our region. This system may develop over or to our east, and with the models struggling with phasing this winter will not place high confidence in the storm as of yet.
If the storm does develop, accumulating snow, especially Finger Lakes eastward is possible.
Lake response behind this system looks to be brief, possibly into Saturday as heights increase aloft through the weekend. Another storm system ejecting out of the Rockies late in the weekend may bring a mix of snow changing to rain Monday along a warm front.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Widespread cigs arnd 3500ft will accompany some light snow during the remaining pre dawn hours...although MVFR conditions in steadier lake snows will be found southeast of Lake Ontario...impacting sites such as KJHW.
Later today...an elevated frontal boundary will support deteriorating conditions with MVFR cigs and snow that will reduce vsbys to 2-4SM. This will be accompanied by winds that increase to include wind gusts of 30-35 knots.
The fairly widespread snow will taper off late today and early Tuesday evening while cigs should improve to VFR levels. The exception will likely be across the Srn Tier and east of Lk Ontario where MVFR cigs should persist.
Outlook...
Wednesday...Occasional lake effect snow showers with local/brief IFR conditions. MVFR/VFR outside of lake effect.
Thursday...MVFR/VFR with a chance of snow showers and associated brief/local IFR.
Friday...Mainly VFR with increasing chances for snow showers.
Friday night through Saturday...MVFR with chances for snow showers.
MARINE
Deep cyclonic flow across the lakes will maintain SCA conditions across the nearshore waters through at least Tuesday.
Breezy WNW winds will freshen and back to the southwest Tuesday morning. Sustained winds will likely approach 30kts across the open waters of Lake Erie for a period on Tuesday.
Winds will shift westerly and briefly subside late Tuesday night, before strengthening behind a cold front on Wednesday. Winds will likely approach gale force on Lake Ontario Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for NYZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ040- 041.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LOZ042.
Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday night for LOZ042>045-062>065.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for LOZ043>045.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 203 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
Cold air will deepen across the region this week, with several passing surface troughs producing occasional rounds of snow showers, graupel, and lake effect snow through Thursday. The greatest snow accumulations will be found across the higher terrain east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. The snow will most readily stick from around sunset through mid morning each day, with some melting during the daylight hours due to the high March sun angle. Temperatures will run below average through the end of the week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Have significantly raised pops east of Lake Ontario where a broad area of light to occasionally moderate upslope snow has developed within the northwest flow. Additional snowfall amounts in this area through daybreak will be an inch or two...meanwhile negligible accumulations of light lake snow will be found southeast of Lake Erie.
A sub 100mb sfc low in the vcnty of Lake Superior at daybreak will slowly drift east during the course of the day
In the process
an elevated warm front will make its way across our forecast area along with a swath of deeper moisture. Frontogenetic lift associated with the elevated boundary should be enough to generate fairly widespread snow showers during the course of the day...esp east/northeast of the lakes where pure lake effect will give way to synoptic forcing and act as an enhancing feature due to H85 temps 'warming' to -8c.
This will effectively eliminate the lake induced instability.
Snowfall amounts throughout the region for the upcoming day will generally range from one to two inches...although higher amounts could be found near and south of the Tug Hill. Amounts will be most insignificant (an inch or less) over the Finger Lakes region.
Otherwise today will continue to feature below normal temperatures peaking in the low to mid 30s...while a modest 35 knot low level jet will support widespread wind gusts of at least 30 mph.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Upper level trough with cold air advection will remain through this period, generating lake effect snow downwind of the Lakes. Diurnal effects of the higher March sun angle will limit snow totals through the daylight hours, with snow bands becoming disorganized and cellular.
Marginal temperatures aloft of -8 to -9C at 850 hPa Tuesday night will bring lake effect snow east of the Lakes. Snow around an inch or so east of Lake Erie, with initially deeper moisture over Lake Ontario leading to two to three inches of snow on the Tug Hill.
An mid level shortwave will pass across the region later Wednesday, with stronger cold air advection behind it. Scattered snow showers during the day Wednesday, in addition to localized lake effect snow, yet accumulations will range from a coating across the lower terrain, to an inch or two across higher terrain east of the Lakes.
The stronger cold air advection will briefly increase lake effect snow parameters east of the Lakes Wednesday night, however fleeting synoptic moisture will not allow for much band development. Could see 1-3 inches east of Lake Erie Wednesday night, and 2 to 4 inches east of Lake Ontario.
The diminishing moisture Thursday will allow for bands of snow southeast of the Lakes to fade to flurries through the afternoon hours.
It will be blustery at times this period, especially Wednesday and Wednesday night with the passing of the mid level shortwave. Gusts to 35 mph are likely near the Lakes. These winds could bring some limited blowing snow on the Tug Hill Wednesday night.
Below normal temperatures continue this period, especially on Thursday when despite increasing amounts of sunshine, daytime temperatures will struggle to rise above the freezing mark.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
The upper level low will slowly exit our region to begin this period, but the jet stream will remain active. Friday a possible phasing of the northern and southern branch of the jet may yield a developing synoptic system over our region. This system may develop over or to our east, and with the models struggling with phasing this winter will not place high confidence in the storm as of yet.
If the storm does develop, accumulating snow, especially Finger Lakes eastward is possible.
Lake response behind this system looks to be brief, possibly into Saturday as heights increase aloft through the weekend. Another storm system ejecting out of the Rockies late in the weekend may bring a mix of snow changing to rain Monday along a warm front.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Widespread cigs arnd 3500ft will accompany some light snow during the remaining pre dawn hours...although MVFR conditions in steadier lake snows will be found southeast of Lake Ontario...impacting sites such as KJHW.
Later today...an elevated frontal boundary will support deteriorating conditions with MVFR cigs and snow that will reduce vsbys to 2-4SM. This will be accompanied by winds that increase to include wind gusts of 30-35 knots.
The fairly widespread snow will taper off late today and early Tuesday evening while cigs should improve to VFR levels. The exception will likely be across the Srn Tier and east of Lk Ontario where MVFR cigs should persist.
Outlook...
Wednesday...Occasional lake effect snow showers with local/brief IFR conditions. MVFR/VFR outside of lake effect.
Thursday...MVFR/VFR with a chance of snow showers and associated brief/local IFR.
Friday...Mainly VFR with increasing chances for snow showers.
Friday night through Saturday...MVFR with chances for snow showers.
MARINE
Deep cyclonic flow across the lakes will maintain SCA conditions across the nearshore waters through at least Tuesday.
Breezy WNW winds will freshen and back to the southwest Tuesday morning. Sustained winds will likely approach 30kts across the open waters of Lake Erie for a period on Tuesday.
Winds will shift westerly and briefly subside late Tuesday night, before strengthening behind a cold front on Wednesday. Winds will likely approach gale force on Lake Ontario Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for NYZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ040- 041.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LOZ042.
Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday night for LOZ042>045-062>065.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for LOZ043>045.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY | 23 mi | 44 min | 31°F | |||||
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY | 24 mi | 32 min | W 8.9G | 32°F | 29.84 | |||
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY | 37 mi | 32 min | WNW 21G | 33°F | 29.85 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Buffalo, NY,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE