Friday, March24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hamlin, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 7:29PM Friday March 24, 2017 3:57 AM EDT (07:57 UTC) Moonrise 4:14AMMoonset 2:46PM Illumination 11% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ042 Niagara River To Hamlin Beach Along Lake Ontario- 741 Pm Edt Thu Mar 23 2017
Tonight..Light and variable winds becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Rain in the morning...then a chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast. Rain. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Rain. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday night..East winds 15 to 25 knots. A chance of rain showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 6 feet.
Sunday..East winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots. Rain likely. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of rain. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. A chance of rain. Waves 2 feet or less.
LOZ042 Expires:201703240315;;975455 FZUS51 KBUF 232341 NSHBUF NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 741 PM EDT THU MAR 23 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE LOZ042-240315-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hamlin, NY
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location: 43.37, -78.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 240548
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
148 am edt Fri mar 24 2017

Synopsis
A warm front will then bring a period of rain to western new
york with some mixed wintry precipitation from the interior
southern tier to the eastern lake ontario region late tonight
into Friday morning. Expect much warmer temperatures on Friday
afternoon behind the front. The front will stall across the
region this weekend, with several disturbances moving along the
front and bringing periods of rain over the weekend and into the
first half of next week.

Near term /through today/
High pressure will continue to drift east off the mid atlantic coast
through the overnight, with a ridge extending northward into new
england. Subsidence associated with the ridge will gradually fade
with mid/high clouds increasing from northwest to southeast.

Surface ridging will keep us dry through much if not all of tonight
with mainly increasing and lowering clouds. Temperatures will bottom
out around midnight in the upper 20s to low 30s across western new
york with lower 20s across central new york and even some upper
teens east of lake ontario. After midnight, increasing southerly
flow will help temperatures begin a slow climb ahead of a warm front
lifting across the ohio valley. Models show an axis of 925-700mb
moisture being lifted ahead of the warm front and on the nose of a
40-50kt jet. Precipitation will quickly overspread western ny
between 10-12z where surface temperatures will be very critical for
p-type at the ground. Using a warm layer tool which produces a p-
type based on a warm layer aloft and looking at surface
temperatures, have included some freezing rain across the interior
southern tier into the western finger lakes for a few hours before
changing quickly over to plain rain as surface temps rise above
freezing. Have issued a winter weather advisory to cover the areas
most likely to see a trace to a few hundredths of an inch of ice.

There may be some sleet as well but the more dominant p-type will be
freezing rain. This idea matches very well to ensemble guidance from
the sseo/ncar/sref. The lake plains of western ny and chautauqua
county should have surface temps above freezing when the rain
arrives including jamestown to buffalo to rochester. Total liquid
qpf will run around a quarter of an inch.

As the warm front approaches then crosses western ny on Friday,
expect precipitation to begin to overspread the eastern lake ontario
region around sunrise where temperature profiles support a very
brief period of snow changing to sleet and freezing rain before
switching to plain rain around noon. Less than an inch of snow is
expected along with a few hundredths of an inch of ice which also
lead to a winter weather advisory. Total liquid QPF after the mixed
precip here will run a quarter to a third of an inch.

As the warm front shifts across western ny, expect rain to
taper off to a chance of some more spotty showers by noon with a
possibility that much of the region south of the front may become
mainly dry during the afternoon. Temperatures will warm nicely into
the 50s across western ny behind the front with 40s for highs east
of lake ontario where the front may stall leaving rain in the
forecast through the day.

Short term /tonight through Sunday night/
By Friday night a sharp frontal boundary will be in place
across the great lakes from southern wi to northern new england
as broad southerly return flow around high pressure stationed
off the eastern seaboard and a large, vertically stacked low
over the southern plains encounters an anticyclonic flow of cold
and dry air moving down from the north out of canada. A broad
swath of precipitation will be in place along this front Friday
night thanks to aforementioned convergence and frontogenetic
forcing along and north of the boundary. Latest model consensus
places the axis of this precipitation primarily north of the
thruway, with the bulk of the precip falling across ontario and
the north country. Precip type should remain all rain, as
virtually all of the forecast area should stay on the warm side
of the frontal boundary, with lows ranging from near 50 along
the pa border to the mid 30s in the st. Lawrence valley.

The frontal boundary will shift south across the forecast area on
Saturday as the high over canada shifts position eastward across
james bay. A low-level northeasterly flow of colder air will ooze
back into the forecast area from the northeast during the
day... Depressing temperatures across the area, with highs barely
budging from overnight readings. Temps should only top out in the
mid 50s along the pa border, with low 40s across the buffalo-
rochester metros, and upper 30s in the st. Lawrence valley. Precip
should taper off in intensity/coverage as we move through Saturday,
as upper level forcing diminishes with the departure of an upper
level jet MAX over eastern ontario/quebec.

The arrival of shallow cooler air from the northeast will once again
present precip type issues Saturday night into Sunday morning, as
temperatures fall below freezing across the north country, bringing
back a potential for freezing rain from the tug hill north to the
st. Lawrence river. Precip should stay as rain elsewhere though, as
temperatures should range from the mid 40s along the pa border to
the mid 30s along lake ontario. With upper level ridging amplifying
across the area, precipitation should taper off to showers
overnight, before precipitation ramps up again Sunday into Sunday
night, as the upper level low that will be drifting across the
midwest during the first half of the weekend approaches the great
lakes. Strengthening southerly flow with the approach of this
feature and its attendant surface low will shove the cold front back
to the north, with highs running from the 50s in western ny to the
low 40s in the north country. Lows Sunday night will run in the 40s,
meaning that precip should once again fall entirely as rain.

Regarding flooding concerns, while warming temperatures will
accelerate melting of remaining snowpack across the forecast area,
the axis of heaviest rainfall Friday night should fall primarily
across canada. There will be enough of a break in the steady
rainfall Saturday/Saturday night to allow for some recovery in
stream levels before the next round of rain arrives Sunday. All
told, current mmefs hydro ensemble guidance suggest that area
streams may rise to action stage, but no flooding is currently
expected.

Long term /Monday through Thursday/
A stalled frontal boundary will remain near or over the forecast
area through mid next week. Several rounds of showers are possible
through this period as various disturbances ride along the boundary.

Temperatures will remain variable, as the front ripples through the
region, with generally more mild to above normal temperatures for
locations south of lake ontario, while locations east of the lake
and along the saint lawrence valley will likely remain cooler as
colder air on the north side of the front flows into the region from
a strong canadian high pressure system. By Tuesday, global models
are in better agreement that a strong trough will track along the
boundary, sending warmer air northward all the way through the saint
lawrence valley and bringing an organized widespread rain event.

Finally by mid-week, mid-range models show some hope for a drier
stretch of weather a large scale ridge finally builds in across the
great lakes. However, this would also bring in some slightly below
normal temperatures.

Aviation /06z Friday through Tuesday/
High pressure drifting away from the region will continue dry/fair
weather for the first 3-6 hours of the 06z TAF cycle. After
this a warm front will move from southwest to northeast across
the area today. Precipitation will overspread western ny quickly
from 10z- 12z as warm advection increases ahead of the warm
front. Most of the precipitation will fall in the form of rain
as temperatures warm quickly above freezing, but there may be a
brief 1-2 hour period of freezing rain from the colder sheltered
valleys of the interior southern tier through the finger lakes
and central ny. East of lake ontario precip may start as a very
brief period of snow and sleet, before briefly changing to
freezing rain, and then rain by midday. Based on upstream obs,
expect conditions to be predominantlyVFR with periods of MVFR
in steadier precipitation with the front.

Expect most TAF sites to remainVFR this afternoon, with patchy
MVFR or lower clouds across higher terrain of the southern tier
and the eastern lake ontario region. After this, the frontal
boundary will slowly drop southward late this afternoon and
evening. This will shift winds to the northeast, which will
result in ifr or lower conditions following the wind shift this
evening. This flow will typically produce widespread ifr or
lower conditions, thus increasing forecast confidence for
tonight.

Low level wind shear will be widespread for much of the day as
the warm front stalls nearby and a low level jet crosses the
area.

Outlook...

Saturday... Ifr or lower CIGS in rain and drizzle.

Saturday night through Tuesday... MVFR/ifr CIGS with rain likely
at times.

Marine
High pressure ridged across the lower great lakes will maintain
light winds and negligible waves through most of tonight.

South to southwest winds will increase Friday as a warm front lifts
into the eastern great lakes. Winds will approach small craft
criteria across eastern portions of lake erie and northeast lake
ontario but waves look to remain just below 4 feet. After this, a
warm frontal boundary will stall across the region, with a
northeasterly flow likely on lake ontario and variable winds on lake
erie. This may require small craft headlines on lake ontario at
times this weekend.

Buf watches/warnings/advisories
Ny... Winter weather advisory from 6 am this morning to noon edt
today for nyz006>008.

Winter weather advisory from 5 am to 11 am edt this morning
for nyz004-005-012>014-020-021.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Hitchcock/smith
near term... Apffel/hitchcock/smith
short term... Wood
long term... Church
aviation... Apffel
marine... Smith


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 23 mi39 min 36°F 1023.6 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 24 mi57 min SSE 7 G 8.9 36°F 1025.1 hPa (-3.0)
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 37 mi57 min E 2.9 G 5.1 35°F 1023.4 hPa

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY26 mi63 minS 710.00 miOvercast39°F14°F36%1024.6 hPa

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW5SW3SW3SW4SW4SW54536S5W5CalmCalmS3SE3E5SE8E7SE9SE6SE7S4S7
1 day agoNW13
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2 days agoCalmW4SW3SW4W4W6W7W10W12
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.