Sunrise 6:06 AM   Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 11:37 PM   Moonset 6:56 AM

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LOZ042 Niagara River To Hamlin Beach Along Lake Ontario- 400 Am Edt Sat Apr 27 2024
Today - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. Showers from late morning on. Waves 2 feet or less. Tonight - South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less. Sunday - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less. Sunday night - West winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast and increasing to 15 to 20 knots overnight. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers overnight. Waves 2 feet or less. Monday - East winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Tuesday - East winds 10 knots or less becoming north. Showers likely during the day, then a chance of showers Tuesday night. Waves 2 feet or less. Wednesday - Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 271508 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1108 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

SYNOPSIS
An active warm front will press through our region this afternoon and tonight
and while this will generate some shower activity
it will also usher in taste of early summer. Many areas will climb into the 70s on Sunday which will help to fuel some showers and possible thunderstorms. The good news is that bulk of Sunday should be rain free
Looking further down the road
temperatures will remain well above normal for the entirety of the coming week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Showers and isolated thunderstorms over the western counties this afternoon will advance across the Eastern Lake Ontario during the late afternoon and evening...as shortwave energy climbing up the backside of an amplified longwave ridge will make its way across the Lower Great Lakes...along with its attendant sfc warm front. Once the boundary has passed through the far western counties later this afternoon though...dry weather will settle back in along with an airmass change that will include higher temperatures and a noticeable increase in humidity.

The aforementioned warm front will make its way northeastward across the North country tonight...making that area the most active in terms of shower activity
Meanwhile in the wake of the warm front
the bulk of the western counties should be pcpn free into at least the wee hours of Sunday morning. While not convinced that there will be any rainfall over the western counties tonight...guidance has been very consistent with advertising showers for parts of the Srn Tier towards daybreak...likely in response to another arm of shortwave energy that will be making its way up and over the aforementioned longwave ridge. Will thus re-introduce low chc pops for that area after about 08z
Otherwise
tonight will feature a warm night...especially given the calender. Mins will range from around 50 east of Lake Ontario ahead of the warm front...to near 60 back near Lake Erie. The high end of that range will be a solid 15 to 20 degrees above late April normals.

Being firmly entrenched within a warm sector...Sunday will be characterized by summer-like humidity with temps reaching into the lower 70s for the bulk of the region
The humid airmass
complete with Td's in the low to mid 60s across the western counties...will be somewhat favorable for diurnally induced convection. This will especially be the case inland from the lakes during the afternoon.
While lapse rates are not forecast to be overly impressive...'garden variety' thunderstorms will be possible. The LEAST likely area for tstorm activity will be northeast of Lake Erie where lake shadowing on gusty southwest winds should prevail
All in all though
the vast majority will be dry with a southwest wind gusting to 30 mph at times over the western counties.

A cold front will sag southwards and stall just south of Lake Ontario Sunday night. This will lead to thickening clouds with scattered showers and possible thunderstorms...especially near and east of Lake Ontario.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A mid level ridge aloft will build further northward and bring dry weather Monday. Monday afternoon there may be scattered instability showers or thunderstorms inland of the lake breeze across the Western Southern Tier.

The ridge will gradually shift to the east, which will allow a weak shortwave and cold front to approach from the west Monday night with the cold front moving across the region during Tuesday. Some pre- frontal instability, but it appears its timing will be on the early side for diurnal instability to fully develop. There likely (60-70%)
will be some showers with some embedded thunderstorms, with the greatest coverage from the Genesee River Valley eastward. With modest wind profiles and instability, these appear to be of the garden variety.

It will be warm with above normal temperatures during the period.
It'll be notably cooler from Buffalo to Rochester northward on Monday with highs mainly the 60s along the south shores of Lake Ontario and east of Lake Ontario. However, the Western Southern Tier up to about Buffalo will break into the warm sector, with 80F still a good possibility near the Pennsylvania state line.
Slightly cooler with the showers and frontal passage on Tuesday with highs in the upper 60s to upper 70s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
The weak frontal boundary will exit to the east of the area Tuesday night, with lingering showers and storms tapering off. Then a weak mid-level ridge will maintain mostly dry weather for Wednesday and Wednesday night. Model consensus then shows a subtle trough over the Northeast, however some ensemble members show the potential for a ridge to build into the region. In general this trend supports low chance (30%) chances for showers Thursday and 40-50% chances for Friday. Instability limited, but can't rule out an isolated thunderstorm during the afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures will remain above normal with daytime highs mainly ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s.

AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
During the course of today weakening low pressure over Minnesota will lift northeastward to central Ontario...while pushing its attendant warm frontal boundary east across western New York. The warm front will bring thickening/lowering clouds and a period of scattered to numerous showers from west to east through the course of the day...though the front and showers should both tend to weaken with increasing eastward extent. Expect ceilings to lower to the IFR to MVFR ranges across the higher terrain and to the lower VFR range across the lower elevations...where a stiffening southerly downslope flow will tend to keep cloud bases somewhat higher than those suggested by guidance. The strengthening southerly flow will also help generate some wind gusts of 30-35 knots at times...with these greatest across and immediately downwind of our higher terrain.

Tonight the warm front and its showers will continue to weaken while traversing the North Country...where flight conditions will range from IFR/MVFR across the higher terrain to MVFR/VFR across the lower elevations
Meanwhile further west
any showers should greatly diminish in coverage with mainly dry weather prevailing for much of the night...with flight conditions ranging from IFR/MVFR across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier to VFR elsewhere.

Outlook...

Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Monday night and Tuesday...MVFR/VFR with showers becoming likely along with a chance of thunderstorms.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

MARINE
Low pressure will track from Minnesota to central Ontario Province today...while slowly pushing its attendant warm front east and across the Lower Lakes region. This will result a moderately brisk south-southeasterly to southerly flow continuing to overspread the Lower Great Lakes...though the increasingly offshore nature of the flow will help to direct the greatest wave action across Canadian waters
Consequently
conditions are expected to remain below advisory criteria.

Following the passage of the warm front...a general southerly flow across the Lower Great Lakes will weaken some while turning more southwesterly tonight and Sunday. This will result in conditions remaining below advisory criteria
This being said
a few thunderstorms will become possible Sunday afternoon and evening.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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