Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hamlin, NY
May 10, 2024 2:35 AM EDT (06:35 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:49 AM Sunset 8:23 PM Moonrise 6:17 AM Moonset 10:58 PM |
LOZ042 Niagara River To Hamlin Beach Along Lake Ontario- 443 Pm Edt Thu May 9 2024
Tonight - Northeast winds 10 knots or less. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night - Northeast winds less than 10 knots. A chance of showers in the evening. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday - South winds 10 knots or less becoming east. A chance of showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday night - East winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. A chance of showers in the evening. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday - West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers Sunday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms during the day, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms Monday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast. A chance of showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LOZ005
No data
No data
FXUS61 KBUF 100529 AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 129 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024
SYNOPSIS
A wavy frontal boundary to our south will lead to thickening clouds over our region with some rain overnight into Friday night. The most persistent chances for wet weather will be across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes. Cool and unsettled weather will generally remain in place for much of the upcoming weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
It will become increasingly unsettled overnight with surface waves moving along a pseudo-stationary frontal boundary stretching from the Ohio Valley to the Mid Atlantic region helping advect deeper moisture northwards across much of the area. Relatively deep lift to the north of the passing waves will encourage showers and areas of steadier rain to impact the region, MAINLY over the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes. Areas that could make it through the night rainfree will be across the Niagara Frontier and the North Country. Lows tonight will be mainly in mid to upper 40s.
The area of steadier, more widespread rain will expand across the region during the day Friday when additional shortwave energy will support deeper organization to the last in the series of surface waves along the aforementioned front. PoPs have thus further been raised across all of the forecast area, now ranging from Chc across Niagara County and toward the Saint Lawrence Valley, to Lkly MOST elsewhere, and approaching 100% across parts of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes region. Cool north to northeasterly low level flow will keep temperatures below average with much of the area topping in the 50s for afternoon highs.
A weak shortwave ridge will scoot across the forecast area Friday night, accompanied by significant mid level drying. This will allow the showers and areas of steadier rain to taper off from west to east, although some spotty showers should persist from the Genesee Valley eastward. Lows Friday night will be a tad cooler than the previous night with lows mainly in the low to mid 40s.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Mid-level troughing will dive across the eastern Great Lakes and Northeast and remain in place through much of the weekend.
Initially, this will support an area of weak low pressure to track southwest across the region. Both synoptic moisture along with the upper level trough providing lift will support low chances for a few showers Saturday morning, especially across WNY. Then with diurnal heating and the potential of some clearing will support a few thunderstorms Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. Coverage in showers will then decrease from west to east Saturday night.
An amplified upper level ridge across the northern Great Lakes will act to gradually push the existing trough and its axis east across the area Sunday. Overall this will support more showers across the area Sunday. Additionally Sunday afternoon, a few thunderstorms will be possible across the Finger Lakes and eastern Lake Ontario region.
Temperatures this weekend will be a few degrees below average with highs in the upper 50s and low 60s.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A damp start to the period as potential showers cover most of the area from the GOMEX all the way through the Great Lakes and to Hudson Bay. Showers will be along an elongated frontal boundary with waves of low pressure and troughs in place along the boundary. Currently the best potential for showers looks like the Monday through Tuesday time period as the above mentioned features pass over/near the region.
Guidance is still very much uncertain from Tuesday night onward as some models keep a stalled frontal boundary over the area, while others are much more progressive with pushing the front and trough through. Went with the middle ground and left some shower potential in for Wednesday & Wednesday night, mainly over the southern half of the forecast area.
Thursday looks like the driest day as of right now, with a potential ridge axis centering over the region ahead of an incoming trough that will have the potential to bring more showers for the end of the week.
Temperatures for the period will be within a few degrees of normal, with Thursday being the warmest day as a potential ridge moves into the region.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR conditions will be in place overnight from the Niagara Frontier (KBUF/KIAG) to the lower Genesee Valley (KROC) to the eastern Lake Ontario region (KART), although some low VFR CIGS (3-5kft) may creep as far north as the Niagara Frontier and lower Genesee Valley late tonight. Further south, light rain will advance across the Southern Tier and eventually the Finger Lakes region. Expect CIGS to lower into the MVFR range across the western Southern Tier by the early overnight hours owed to increasing low level moisture, with MVFR CIGS developing across the Finger Lakes through the second half of tonight. Intermittent MVFR VSBY will be possible in areas of moderate rain, along with some MVFR VSBY in patchy fog that may develop later tonight across the interior Southern Tier and Finger Lakes as well.
Friday, areas of rain and MVFR CIGS will expand across just about all of western New York. Areas of IFR conditions are expected across the higher terrain of the interior Southern Tier and Finger Lakes region, including areas of fog in these same areas which may reduce VSBY down into the IFR at times as well. Exception will be toward Niagara County (KIAG) where they may escape with no lower than low VFR CIGS (3-5kft). Mainly VFR is expected toward the Saint Lawrence Valley, with low VFR CIGS (3-5kft) expected toward KART, and MVFR CIGS across the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario from late Friday morning on.
Outlook...
Friday night...MVFR to VFR conditions from west to east, with lingering rain showers also ending from west to east.
Saturday...VFR CIGS deteriorating to MVFR with increasing likelihood for showers.
Sunday...VFR to MVFR CIGS in scattered showers.
Monday and Tuesday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers.
MARINE
Gentle to moderate north to northeasterly breezes (less than 15 knots) will continue on the Lakes, maintaining some light, to at times moderate chop tonight through Friday. However, there are no Small Craft conditions forecast.
Mainly light, variable winds (less than 10 knots) will then be the rule from Friday night through much of Sunday, before a more pronounced southwesterly flow (10-15 knots) develops ahead of a warm front approaching from the west toward the tail end of the weekend.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 129 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024
SYNOPSIS
A wavy frontal boundary to our south will lead to thickening clouds over our region with some rain overnight into Friday night. The most persistent chances for wet weather will be across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes. Cool and unsettled weather will generally remain in place for much of the upcoming weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
It will become increasingly unsettled overnight with surface waves moving along a pseudo-stationary frontal boundary stretching from the Ohio Valley to the Mid Atlantic region helping advect deeper moisture northwards across much of the area. Relatively deep lift to the north of the passing waves will encourage showers and areas of steadier rain to impact the region, MAINLY over the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes. Areas that could make it through the night rainfree will be across the Niagara Frontier and the North Country. Lows tonight will be mainly in mid to upper 40s.
The area of steadier, more widespread rain will expand across the region during the day Friday when additional shortwave energy will support deeper organization to the last in the series of surface waves along the aforementioned front. PoPs have thus further been raised across all of the forecast area, now ranging from Chc across Niagara County and toward the Saint Lawrence Valley, to Lkly MOST elsewhere, and approaching 100% across parts of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes region. Cool north to northeasterly low level flow will keep temperatures below average with much of the area topping in the 50s for afternoon highs.
A weak shortwave ridge will scoot across the forecast area Friday night, accompanied by significant mid level drying. This will allow the showers and areas of steadier rain to taper off from west to east, although some spotty showers should persist from the Genesee Valley eastward. Lows Friday night will be a tad cooler than the previous night with lows mainly in the low to mid 40s.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Mid-level troughing will dive across the eastern Great Lakes and Northeast and remain in place through much of the weekend.
Initially, this will support an area of weak low pressure to track southwest across the region. Both synoptic moisture along with the upper level trough providing lift will support low chances for a few showers Saturday morning, especially across WNY. Then with diurnal heating and the potential of some clearing will support a few thunderstorms Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. Coverage in showers will then decrease from west to east Saturday night.
An amplified upper level ridge across the northern Great Lakes will act to gradually push the existing trough and its axis east across the area Sunday. Overall this will support more showers across the area Sunday. Additionally Sunday afternoon, a few thunderstorms will be possible across the Finger Lakes and eastern Lake Ontario region.
Temperatures this weekend will be a few degrees below average with highs in the upper 50s and low 60s.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A damp start to the period as potential showers cover most of the area from the GOMEX all the way through the Great Lakes and to Hudson Bay. Showers will be along an elongated frontal boundary with waves of low pressure and troughs in place along the boundary. Currently the best potential for showers looks like the Monday through Tuesday time period as the above mentioned features pass over/near the region.
Guidance is still very much uncertain from Tuesday night onward as some models keep a stalled frontal boundary over the area, while others are much more progressive with pushing the front and trough through. Went with the middle ground and left some shower potential in for Wednesday & Wednesday night, mainly over the southern half of the forecast area.
Thursday looks like the driest day as of right now, with a potential ridge axis centering over the region ahead of an incoming trough that will have the potential to bring more showers for the end of the week.
Temperatures for the period will be within a few degrees of normal, with Thursday being the warmest day as a potential ridge moves into the region.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR conditions will be in place overnight from the Niagara Frontier (KBUF/KIAG) to the lower Genesee Valley (KROC) to the eastern Lake Ontario region (KART), although some low VFR CIGS (3-5kft) may creep as far north as the Niagara Frontier and lower Genesee Valley late tonight. Further south, light rain will advance across the Southern Tier and eventually the Finger Lakes region. Expect CIGS to lower into the MVFR range across the western Southern Tier by the early overnight hours owed to increasing low level moisture, with MVFR CIGS developing across the Finger Lakes through the second half of tonight. Intermittent MVFR VSBY will be possible in areas of moderate rain, along with some MVFR VSBY in patchy fog that may develop later tonight across the interior Southern Tier and Finger Lakes as well.
Friday, areas of rain and MVFR CIGS will expand across just about all of western New York. Areas of IFR conditions are expected across the higher terrain of the interior Southern Tier and Finger Lakes region, including areas of fog in these same areas which may reduce VSBY down into the IFR at times as well. Exception will be toward Niagara County (KIAG) where they may escape with no lower than low VFR CIGS (3-5kft). Mainly VFR is expected toward the Saint Lawrence Valley, with low VFR CIGS (3-5kft) expected toward KART, and MVFR CIGS across the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario from late Friday morning on.
Outlook...
Friday night...MVFR to VFR conditions from west to east, with lingering rain showers also ending from west to east.
Saturday...VFR CIGS deteriorating to MVFR with increasing likelihood for showers.
Sunday...VFR to MVFR CIGS in scattered showers.
Monday and Tuesday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers.
MARINE
Gentle to moderate north to northeasterly breezes (less than 15 knots) will continue on the Lakes, maintaining some light, to at times moderate chop tonight through Friday. However, there are no Small Craft conditions forecast.
Mainly light, variable winds (less than 10 knots) will then be the rule from Friday night through much of Sunday, before a more pronounced southwesterly flow (10-15 knots) develops ahead of a warm front approaching from the west toward the tail end of the weekend.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY | 23 mi | 48 min | 51°F | |||||
| RPRN6 - Rochester, NY | 24 mi | 36 min | NNW 2.9G | 54°F | 29.81 | |||
| OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY | 37 mi | 36 min | NNE 1.9G | 52°F | 29.81 |
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Buffalo, NY,
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