Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hailey, ID
March 19, 2024 7:40 AM MDT (13:40 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:39 AM Sunset 7:50 PM Moonrise 1:16 PM Moonset 4:33 AM |
Area Discussion for - Pocatello, ID
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FXUS65 KPIH 190925 AFDPIH
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 325 AM MDT Tue Mar 19 2024
SHORT TERM
Today through Wednesday Night.
Early morning satellite imagery shows a well established Rex Block over the WRN CONUS with a H5 low over SRN California and a broad H5 ridge directly north extending from the Pacific to the NRN Rockies. As a result, seasonably warm and dry conditions will continue with highs in the 50s/60s, light winds, and plenty of sunshine. Overnight lows will be in the 20s/30s, outside of some our colder mountain valleys.
Stanley set a new daily high temperature record yesterday of 58 degrees, breaking the previous record of 56 set in 2017. Stanley remains in a good position to set another daily record today with the daily record again at 56 degrees set back in 1997. Challis could also be a contender for at least tying a record reaching 65 degrees yesterday with the record high today of 67 degrees set back in 1990. Further south across the Snake Plain and Magic Valley, records are in the upper 60s and 70s with the forecast currently showing low to mid 60s, making new records unlikely. The NBM deterministic high temperatures continue to trend on the colder side given a colder bias correction from earlier this morning, so have gone ahead and used the observed highs from Monday with a blend of the NBM 50th percentile through Wednesday.
Later in the day on Wednesday, a H5 trough will move onshore to the PacNW allowing a series of shortwave troughs to propagate east through the NRN Rockies. While the bulk of moisture Wednesday night will be in Montana and NRN Idaho, isolated rain and snow showers will be possible in the CNTRL Mountains, ERN Highlands, and Upper Snake Plain as conditions remain predominantly dry elsewhere. Chances for thunderstorms will remain low but nonzero, staying below about a 10 percent chance at this time. MacKay
LONG TERM
Thursday through next Tuesday.
The lingering effect of the Wed/Wed night trough continues into Thu and Thu night, mostly in the western central Idaho mountains (where the upslope favors continued precipitation) and the eastern highlands bordering WY (for mostly the same reason). By Fri afternoon, a stronger trough is expected to drop southward from Canada and then entrain some subtropical moisture to produce a wet and windy Fri and weekend. Right now, the amounts are not really significant, with little change (perhaps a little less in the valleys/lower elevations, by about 10 percent compared to yesterday) and continued light to moderate snowfall expected.
There may be some limited Winter Weather Advisories, as the wind continues to increase but stay below Wind Advisory levels with periods of 15 to 25 mph sustained winds from the southwest and west. Messick
AVIATION
For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday.
High pressure continues the clear skies aloft. The only apparent risk is from large water body stratus and fog, which will not be affecting any of the 5 TAFs, only the Bear Lake County Airport. As is typical, wind is mainly light and variable, and should be able to account for some terrain/thermally-driven wind, but it will not get to any significant windspeed. Messick
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 325 AM MDT Tue Mar 19 2024
SHORT TERM
Today through Wednesday Night.
Early morning satellite imagery shows a well established Rex Block over the WRN CONUS with a H5 low over SRN California and a broad H5 ridge directly north extending from the Pacific to the NRN Rockies. As a result, seasonably warm and dry conditions will continue with highs in the 50s/60s, light winds, and plenty of sunshine. Overnight lows will be in the 20s/30s, outside of some our colder mountain valleys.
Stanley set a new daily high temperature record yesterday of 58 degrees, breaking the previous record of 56 set in 2017. Stanley remains in a good position to set another daily record today with the daily record again at 56 degrees set back in 1997. Challis could also be a contender for at least tying a record reaching 65 degrees yesterday with the record high today of 67 degrees set back in 1990. Further south across the Snake Plain and Magic Valley, records are in the upper 60s and 70s with the forecast currently showing low to mid 60s, making new records unlikely. The NBM deterministic high temperatures continue to trend on the colder side given a colder bias correction from earlier this morning, so have gone ahead and used the observed highs from Monday with a blend of the NBM 50th percentile through Wednesday.
Later in the day on Wednesday, a H5 trough will move onshore to the PacNW allowing a series of shortwave troughs to propagate east through the NRN Rockies. While the bulk of moisture Wednesday night will be in Montana and NRN Idaho, isolated rain and snow showers will be possible in the CNTRL Mountains, ERN Highlands, and Upper Snake Plain as conditions remain predominantly dry elsewhere. Chances for thunderstorms will remain low but nonzero, staying below about a 10 percent chance at this time. MacKay
LONG TERM
Thursday through next Tuesday.
The lingering effect of the Wed/Wed night trough continues into Thu and Thu night, mostly in the western central Idaho mountains (where the upslope favors continued precipitation) and the eastern highlands bordering WY (for mostly the same reason). By Fri afternoon, a stronger trough is expected to drop southward from Canada and then entrain some subtropical moisture to produce a wet and windy Fri and weekend. Right now, the amounts are not really significant, with little change (perhaps a little less in the valleys/lower elevations, by about 10 percent compared to yesterday) and continued light to moderate snowfall expected.
There may be some limited Winter Weather Advisories, as the wind continues to increase but stay below Wind Advisory levels with periods of 15 to 25 mph sustained winds from the southwest and west. Messick
AVIATION
For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday.
High pressure continues the clear skies aloft. The only apparent risk is from large water body stratus and fog, which will not be affecting any of the 5 TAFs, only the Bear Lake County Airport. As is typical, wind is mainly light and variable, and should be able to account for some terrain/thermally-driven wind, but it will not get to any significant windspeed. Messick
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KSUN FRIEDMAN MEMORIAL,ID | 2 sm | 53 min | NW 08 | 10 sm | Clear | 32°F | 19°F | 59% | 30.17 |
Pocatello/Idaho Falls, ID,
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