Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Constableville, NY
March 18, 2024 9:36 PM EDT (01:36 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:05 AM Sunset 7:13 PM Moonrise 11:30 AM Moonset 3:12 AM |
LOZ045 Mexico Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 1036 Am Edt Mon Mar 18 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through late Tuesday night - .
Rest of today - West winds to 30 knots. Lake effect snow showers. Waves 7 to 11 feet. Waves occasionally around 14 feet.
Tonight - West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northwest. Lake effect snow showers. Waves 7 to 10 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Tuesday - Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. Lake effect snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tuesday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake effect snow showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday - West winds to 30 knots increasing to 35 knot gales. Lake effect snow showers likely. Waves 4 to 7 feet building to 10 to 15 feet. Waves occasionally around 19 feet.
Thursday - Northwest gales to 35 knots becoming north and diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 10 to 13 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 16 feet.
Friday - East winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
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Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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FXUS61 KBGM 190008 AFDBGM
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 808 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
Lake effect snow showers continue across the region today, with steadier lake effect snow moving into northern counties tonight.
Lake effect snow showers will continue on and off through the middle of the week as the pattern remains unsettled.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
630 PM Update...
Updated temperatures and dew points with the latest observations and blended this into the forecast. There continues to be a 10-15 degree difference between temperatures and dewpoints keeping precipitation light over central NY.
330 PM Update...
Light lake effect snow showers continue across northern Oneida county, and a few showers have developed in the last hour over the Finger Lakes region, sliding south. Dewpoint depressions of 10-15 degrees across the region have kept most of the precip showing up on radar as virga. Higher elevations heavier snow showers have been able to break through the dry air and seen snow at the surface. Most areas should not see any accumulations this afternoon as the sun has kept surface temps in the mid 30s.
A 500mb shortwave trough moving through the eastern Great Lakes has an associated low level positively tilted trough moving into western NY this afternoon. Winds have started to shift from mostly westerly to NWerly, continuing through the late afternoon, and settling in to NW flow by the evening. 850mb temps will be -7 to -8 through the early evening, which will allow lake effect showers to develop, but they should be light in nature. 850mb temps fall to -12 to -13 by the late evening, and combined with more aligned NW flow, lake effect show showers should gain steam across Onondaga, Madison and southern Oneida counties. Snowfall amounts are expected to be between 1-3 inches across the aforementioned area.
The winds shift back SWerly Tuesday morning as a ridge builds into the region from the SW. Lake effect showers will slide north during the morning, but the ridge will not be in place for long as a shortwave moves across the region from the Great Lakes. Snow showers move back into region, with the best chances across the Finger Lakes to northern Oneida beginning late morning Tuesday through the evening. The sun angle is high enough this time of year that most snow that falls will not stick to the ground, and almost all of the snow that fell Monday night should melt. Highs on Tuesday will reach the mid to upper 30s.
Snow showers will continue through the overnight hours as the shortwave rotates through the region, with the best chance of snow north of the Southern Tier. Another 1-3 inches of snow is forecast across the eastern Finger Lakes into northern Oneida, with the best chance for higher numbers across the higher elevations. Temps will fall into the mid 20s to low 30s.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Wednesday will start off with a few snow showers around. However, as we head into the afternoon a fairly potent shortwave looks to rotate into the region. With some moisture from the Great Lakes a round of fairly widespread showers mixed with graupel and snow showers should develop as temperatures rise into the mid and upper 30's.
Also conditions look favorable for the transport of strong wind gusts of 30-40 mph that could get tapped to the surface with the main wave of showers/snow showers in the afternoon, so some snow squalls are possible. An element of instability in the form of steep low lapse rates and CAPE of around 50 J/KG looks to be present ahead of it as well. Temperatures look warm enough in valley locations to where any accumulations would be light but a quick half inch or so in higher elevations is not out of the question. Typical residual west northwest flow lake effect Wednesday night with another inch or two south of Syracuse into Madison county.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
High pressure then looks to build into the region Thursday with any lake effect snow showers shifting into the Finger Lakes and Southern Tier early Thursday before finally breaking up. Despite the potential for some afternoon sunshine highs will likely stay in the 30's again.
More uncertainity is present for Friday through the weekend. The spread within the ECMWF ensemble guidance continues to be very high.
For now, opted to stay close to our blended model guidance (NBM)
given the uncertainity with temperatures (30's/40's). However, more solutions are trending in the direction of more interaction and in the case of the 12Z GFS full phase between southern and northern branches Friday night and Saturday. More interaction would allow for more moisture to be drawn ahead of a disturbance moving through the Great Lakes eastward into our region. For now, increased the coverage of rain/snow in this time frame.
Given a much colder (10's- 20's for lows) and drier airmass ahead of this system most of the region does have it's best shot in a while to get accumulating snow outside the traditional lake effect areas.
A warming trend Sunday and Monday with high pressure passing by to our north and east.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
805 PM Update
Light lake effect snow is impacting much of Central NY this evening, but conditions are still mainly VFR to MVFR over the region.
A more organized area of lake effect snow should develop tonight, bringing IFR conditions to SYR. This will be intermittent IFR restrictions, mainly visibility, now through daybreak (around 11z Tuesday). The snow band then looks to lift northeast, away from SYR later in the morning, with a return to VFR conditions possible by mid to late morning.
Confidence for IFR conditions at RME was lower, so opted to include a tempo group here in the taf, with the highest probabilities appearing to be between 04-08z, when IFR vsbys were mentioned. The lake effect band shifts north tomorrow morning, but more snow showers are expected to move in ahead of another system. There are timing difference in the latest high resolution near term model guidance for when the light snow will return. This lowered the confidence in the tafs after about 17-18z...as the HRRR/RAP suggested snow would redevelop across much of CNY in the afternoon hours. Meanwhile the 3km NAM did not bring additional widespread snow until after 22-24z Tuesday....generally went between the two timing possibilities for now, and will be able to better narrow down the timing for more snow in later taf updates.
ITH and BGM will likely see intermittent MVFR restrictions (and even a tempo for IFR at ITH) this evening and overnight as lake effect snow showers move into the area. These should dissipate and move north/east after 09z early Tuesday, leaving VFR conditions into the afternoon hours. As mentioned above, some MVFR snow/snow showers are forecast to develop sometime later Tuesday afternoon or evening.
ELM will be mainly VFR through the period, but could see a tempo MVFR snow shower this evening and again heading into Tuesday evening.
AVP should remain VFR through the forecast period. Any snow showers are not expected to reach that far south into NE PA at this time.
Outlook...
Tuesday night...Snow showers likely across Central NY, with associated restrictions.
Wednesday into Thursday...Another frontal system is expected to bring restrictions with snow showers and possible squalls.
Thursday evening into Friday...Mainly VFR under weak high pressure.
Friday night and Saturday...Chance of snow and rain with another stronger low pressure system. Associated restrictions possible.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 808 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
Lake effect snow showers continue across the region today, with steadier lake effect snow moving into northern counties tonight.
Lake effect snow showers will continue on and off through the middle of the week as the pattern remains unsettled.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
630 PM Update...
Updated temperatures and dew points with the latest observations and blended this into the forecast. There continues to be a 10-15 degree difference between temperatures and dewpoints keeping precipitation light over central NY.
330 PM Update...
Light lake effect snow showers continue across northern Oneida county, and a few showers have developed in the last hour over the Finger Lakes region, sliding south. Dewpoint depressions of 10-15 degrees across the region have kept most of the precip showing up on radar as virga. Higher elevations heavier snow showers have been able to break through the dry air and seen snow at the surface. Most areas should not see any accumulations this afternoon as the sun has kept surface temps in the mid 30s.
A 500mb shortwave trough moving through the eastern Great Lakes has an associated low level positively tilted trough moving into western NY this afternoon. Winds have started to shift from mostly westerly to NWerly, continuing through the late afternoon, and settling in to NW flow by the evening. 850mb temps will be -7 to -8 through the early evening, which will allow lake effect showers to develop, but they should be light in nature. 850mb temps fall to -12 to -13 by the late evening, and combined with more aligned NW flow, lake effect show showers should gain steam across Onondaga, Madison and southern Oneida counties. Snowfall amounts are expected to be between 1-3 inches across the aforementioned area.
The winds shift back SWerly Tuesday morning as a ridge builds into the region from the SW. Lake effect showers will slide north during the morning, but the ridge will not be in place for long as a shortwave moves across the region from the Great Lakes. Snow showers move back into region, with the best chances across the Finger Lakes to northern Oneida beginning late morning Tuesday through the evening. The sun angle is high enough this time of year that most snow that falls will not stick to the ground, and almost all of the snow that fell Monday night should melt. Highs on Tuesday will reach the mid to upper 30s.
Snow showers will continue through the overnight hours as the shortwave rotates through the region, with the best chance of snow north of the Southern Tier. Another 1-3 inches of snow is forecast across the eastern Finger Lakes into northern Oneida, with the best chance for higher numbers across the higher elevations. Temps will fall into the mid 20s to low 30s.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Wednesday will start off with a few snow showers around. However, as we head into the afternoon a fairly potent shortwave looks to rotate into the region. With some moisture from the Great Lakes a round of fairly widespread showers mixed with graupel and snow showers should develop as temperatures rise into the mid and upper 30's.
Also conditions look favorable for the transport of strong wind gusts of 30-40 mph that could get tapped to the surface with the main wave of showers/snow showers in the afternoon, so some snow squalls are possible. An element of instability in the form of steep low lapse rates and CAPE of around 50 J/KG looks to be present ahead of it as well. Temperatures look warm enough in valley locations to where any accumulations would be light but a quick half inch or so in higher elevations is not out of the question. Typical residual west northwest flow lake effect Wednesday night with another inch or two south of Syracuse into Madison county.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
High pressure then looks to build into the region Thursday with any lake effect snow showers shifting into the Finger Lakes and Southern Tier early Thursday before finally breaking up. Despite the potential for some afternoon sunshine highs will likely stay in the 30's again.
More uncertainity is present for Friday through the weekend. The spread within the ECMWF ensemble guidance continues to be very high.
For now, opted to stay close to our blended model guidance (NBM)
given the uncertainity with temperatures (30's/40's). However, more solutions are trending in the direction of more interaction and in the case of the 12Z GFS full phase between southern and northern branches Friday night and Saturday. More interaction would allow for more moisture to be drawn ahead of a disturbance moving through the Great Lakes eastward into our region. For now, increased the coverage of rain/snow in this time frame.
Given a much colder (10's- 20's for lows) and drier airmass ahead of this system most of the region does have it's best shot in a while to get accumulating snow outside the traditional lake effect areas.
A warming trend Sunday and Monday with high pressure passing by to our north and east.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
805 PM Update
Light lake effect snow is impacting much of Central NY this evening, but conditions are still mainly VFR to MVFR over the region.
A more organized area of lake effect snow should develop tonight, bringing IFR conditions to SYR. This will be intermittent IFR restrictions, mainly visibility, now through daybreak (around 11z Tuesday). The snow band then looks to lift northeast, away from SYR later in the morning, with a return to VFR conditions possible by mid to late morning.
Confidence for IFR conditions at RME was lower, so opted to include a tempo group here in the taf, with the highest probabilities appearing to be between 04-08z, when IFR vsbys were mentioned. The lake effect band shifts north tomorrow morning, but more snow showers are expected to move in ahead of another system. There are timing difference in the latest high resolution near term model guidance for when the light snow will return. This lowered the confidence in the tafs after about 17-18z...as the HRRR/RAP suggested snow would redevelop across much of CNY in the afternoon hours. Meanwhile the 3km NAM did not bring additional widespread snow until after 22-24z Tuesday....generally went between the two timing possibilities for now, and will be able to better narrow down the timing for more snow in later taf updates.
ITH and BGM will likely see intermittent MVFR restrictions (and even a tempo for IFR at ITH) this evening and overnight as lake effect snow showers move into the area. These should dissipate and move north/east after 09z early Tuesday, leaving VFR conditions into the afternoon hours. As mentioned above, some MVFR snow/snow showers are forecast to develop sometime later Tuesday afternoon or evening.
ELM will be mainly VFR through the period, but could see a tempo MVFR snow shower this evening and again heading into Tuesday evening.
AVP should remain VFR through the forecast period. Any snow showers are not expected to reach that far south into NE PA at this time.
Outlook...
Tuesday night...Snow showers likely across Central NY, with associated restrictions.
Wednesday into Thursday...Another frontal system is expected to bring restrictions with snow showers and possible squalls.
Thursday evening into Friday...Mainly VFR under weak high pressure.
Friday night and Saturday...Chance of snow and rain with another stronger low pressure system. Associated restrictions possible.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY | 46 mi | 49 min | WNW 20G | 36°F | 29.72 | 27°F |
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