Monday, May29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Constableville, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:23AMSunset 8:34PM Monday May 29, 2017 3:38 AM EDT (07:38 UTC) Moonrise 8:33AMMoonset 11:21PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ045 Mexico Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 731 Pm Edt Sun May 28 2017
Tonight..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots. Showers late. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. Showers in the morning...then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday night..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers Thursday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LOZ045 Expires:201705290300;;368375 FZUS51 KBUF 282349 NSHBUF NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 731 PM EDT SUN MAY 28 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE WAVES ARE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT - THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. OCCASIONAL WAVE HEIGHT IS THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/10 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. LOZ045-290300-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Constableville, NY
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location: 43.54, -75.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 290545
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
145 am edt Mon may 29 2017

Synopsis
An approaching front will bring a period of showers and a
chance for thunderstorms later this evening through midday
Monday. A generally unsettled pattern will persist through the
week due to the system's upper level low lingering over the
area.

Near term through today
740 pm update... We've slightly sped up the onset of
showers embedded thunder this evening, based on radar satellite
trends. Overall, we still expect thunder to diminish as the area
of showers moves eastward across our forecast area overnight,
but there will likely be enough of it to maintain an isolated-
scattered mention. Some slow moving heavy downpours have been
noted upstream in western central pa and the western southern
tier of ny, and given the infusion of deeper moisture, along
with the potential for increasingly slower moving individual
cells later tonight, we'll have to watch for this, particularly
in the finger lakes region and portions of nepa.

It appears that the steadier showers will exit stage right by
the late morning-midday hours Monday.

Just minor temperature tweaks were made early this evening, with
overnight lows still expected to range from the mid 50s-lower
60s.

Previous discussion... Tonight Monday... Surface low pressure
currently over southern michigan will gradually lift northeast
into southern ontario by Monday morning. The surface occlusion
associated with this feature will gradually move into the
western forecast area Monday morning then wash out. A mid level
short wave in advance of this system will cross the region later
tonight into Monday morning. Scattered to isolated
showers thunderstorms will be possible over the entire region
through early evening. Later this evening as forcing increases
from west to east widepsread showers and scattered thunderstorms
will spread across the area. By mid morning widespread activity
will be confined to area primarily from i81 east then exit the
western catskills by midday. Will continue to mention thunder
due to mid level instability. Overnight lows will range from the
middle 50s to lower 60s. Highs temperatures on Monday will have
a fairly large spread from east to west. Since clouds and wet
conditions will persist in the east with a cool southeast flow
highs will only reach around 60 while in the western forecast
area a milder southwest flow with some sunshine will allow
temperatures to reach the middle 70s.

Monday night... Overnight period will be primarily dry but by
late night another mid level wave in southwest flow will bring
the chance for showers primarily across central new york.

Short term tonight through Wednesday
430 pm update... On Tuesday, the mid-level short-wave mentioned
at the end of the previous section, along with an associated,
but weakening surface boundary, is progged to come through
cny nepa. As a result, showers and some embedded thunderstorms
are likely to track through the region, mainly cny. Instability
remains questionable (model values mainly 500 j kg or less at
this time), with fairly extensive clouds limited heating, so at
this juncture, any thunderstorms look to be non-severe garden
variety in nature. Wind fields are fairly strong, though, so if
any future upticks in progged instability occur, stronger storms
would have to be considered. For now, we have no mention of
such in our hazardous weather outlook.

Tuesday night, the above disturbances are expected to track off
to the east, with showers diminishing during the night into
early Wednesday. During the day Wednesday, the next short-wave
is expected to rotate eastward through the forecast area, along
with another lower-level boundary, bringing at least scattered
showers and possible thunder.

Temperatures should continue somewhat below seasonal normals for
the end of may, with highs in the 60s-lower 70s.

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday
445 pm update... The same basic long-wave pattern remains in
tact, with troughing below normal heights over the great lakes
and northeastern states. Thus, temperatures will stay on the
cool side for early june, along with at least some threat of
showers most of the time.

It appears we may be able to sneak out one dry day Thursday, as
surface ridging temporarily builds in behind Wednesday's systems
mentioned above. However, the chances for showers should
increase again towards next weekend, as the next surface low,
frontal complex, and series of upper-level waves approach.

Aviation 06z Monday through Friday
Ceilings will continue to drop to MVFR fuel alternate required
through the rest of the overnight hours. Rain showers will
spread nwd through the area with a period of MVFR vsbys in light
fog ra. Rain is expected to subside by 12-15z but a few light
unrestricted showers may persist into the late morning. A light
of weak convection will develop in the afternoon and impact
the region for a few hours with brief rain showers.VFR
conditions are expected at all sites into the evening except
krme which may remain MVFR. Toward the end of the TAF period
conditions at kith, kbgm, kelm and kavp may deteriorate with
lower ceilings developing just before 06z.

Se winds 5-10 knots and gusts 15 to 20 kt expected this morning.

Winds will shift to the south and eventually to the SW 5 to 10
kt by the afternoon.

Outlook...

Tuesday and Wednesday... Restrictions possible from scattered
showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday... GenerallyVFR.

Friday... Potential restrictions in rain showers.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Rrm
near term... Mlj rrm
short term... Mlj
long term... Mlj
aviation... Bjt rrm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 46 mi50 min SE 8 G 13 1006.5 hPa
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 81 mi56 min 1007.4 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Griffiss Air Force Base / Rome, NY24 mi45 minESE 1210.00 miOvercast63°F55°F76%1008.5 hPa

Wind History from RME (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW3SE3CalmSE3SE3E63SE5SE7SE6E6E7SE6SE11SE10SE9E9E8E7E8E8E9E9SE12
1 day agoN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3W4SW5W5SW3NW7W8W6W7W7CalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3W7W6W10W16
G21
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G20
W12W11W10W7W5W6NW5NW4CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.