Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Constableville, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:54AMSunset 4:38PM Thursday November 15, 2018 2:58 AM EST (07:58 UTC) Moonrise 1:16PMMoonset 11:39PM Illumination 47% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ045 Mexico Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 637 Pm Est Wed Nov 14 2018
Tonight..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming east and diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Thursday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of snow in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Snow. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. Snow in the morning, then rain, snow with areas of drizzle in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Friday night..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Rain showers likely. Waves 5 to 9 feet subsiding to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Saturday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots. Rain and snow showers likely. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of snow showers Sunday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north. A chance of snow showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
LOZ045 Expires:201811150415;;313216 FZUS51 KBUF 142337 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 637 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ045-150415-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Constableville, NY
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location: 43.54, -75.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 150546
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
1246 am est Thu nov 15 2018

Synopsis
Things remain quiet through the morning. However, a large
winter storm will move in with snow developing in the afternoon
to early evening, possibly heavy. Northeast pennsylvania and the
southern tier to catskills in new york will have a wintry mix
for a time Thursday night, then back to snow into Friday. The
rest of central new york will be mainly snow for the whole event.

Near term until 6 am this morning
830 pm update...

lake effect snow has ended... Leaving mainly a layer of high
clouds streaming in from the SW and relatively quiet weather
conditions this evening. Temperatures continue to turn slowly
downward this evening with overnight lows tonight expected to
bottom out in the teens and lower 20s. Aside from a few
adjustments to the very near term forecast... Increased forecast
cloud cover tonight and ended mention of lake effect snow
showers flurries... The current forecast remains unchanged.

215 pm update... Lake effect is becoming more scattered and
cellular in nature across central ny late this afternoon.

Therefore, have decided to cancel the remaining winter weather
advisories as only an additional coating to 2 inches are
expected locally through early evening. Updated pops, wx, temps
and sky grids to reflect the latest trends. Isolated to
scattered snow showers will continue into the early evening
hours before tapering to just flurries and eventually ending
altogether. Lake clouds will be slow to dissipate, but
eventually should overnight.

Outside of the above mentioned lake effect snow showers, expect
partly cloudy skies with just a few snow flurries around into
the evening hours. It will be cold this evening with temperatures
falling through the 20s... Along with northwest winds 6-12 mph.

Tonight will be partly cloudy and very cold as a surface high
pressure moves overhead. Lows will be in the teens to lower
20s... Except perhaps some single digits in the colder spots
north and east. Light and variable winds. Mid and high clouds
increase toward daybreak, especially south.

Short term 6 am this morning through Friday night
325 pm update... A complex, early winter storm is still on track
to affect our forecast area by late tomorrow afternoon through
Friday morning. Thermal profiles, and temporal changes of the
air masses passing through parts of our forecast area are the
main challenges to this forecast leading to considerable
uncertainty in precipitation type and snow sleet and ice
accumulations. The most confident areas for changeover to sleet
and freezing rain remain over our southern zones as the warm
conveyor wraps into the deepening cyclone. After an initial
burst of warm advection snow, the changing precip types will
tend to limit accumulations from the wyoming valley to the
poconos and catskills.

Further north and west... Model blends do suggest some warm air
intruding aloft, but also suggest that dynamic cooling will
overcome the advective properties of this system as it pulls
away on Friday morning. We expect that much of cny,
particularly the finger lakes region to southern tug hill, will
remain mainly snow with varying intensity. The heaviest snowfall
could come later Thursday night into early Friday morning. Snow
amount solutions are all over the place depending on the warm
layer and resulting snow-liquid ratios that fluctuate throughout
the entire event. The canadian gem and ECMWF models would blitz
our area under warning criteria snow, and then some. The warm
intrusion on the NAM is stronger and further north, while the
gfs is holding the precip shield closest to the coastal low.

Given this uncertainty, we have continued the watch as previously
issued, and expanded it throughout the rest of cny and the
northern tier pa. Ensemble precip-type probabilities are also of
little help to pinpoint the scenario at this time. Continuing
to highlight the potential, but not certainty, of excessive snow
accumulations is prudent at this time. What is reasonably
confident to say is that we will see a wintry storm system
affecting our area Thursday into Friday with areas of slippery
and hazardous travel almost a guarantee. Later forecasts will
be adjusted to pin down the snow accumulations.

Temperatures colder than normal, but rising toward 40 again on
Friday. Any lingering precipitation through Friday night will be
scattered in nature and mainly focused on the downwind lake
effect tracks from lake ontario. Right now, the lake generated
instability does not seem to be enough for significant snows
into Friday evening. This may settle out for the weekend as the
air chills.

Long term Saturday through Wednesday
400 pm update...

the main concerns in the long term are focused on the
persistent, cold northwest flow through the weekend into next
week with on and off snow showers and flurries.

The long wave pattern this weekend and into the middle of next
week will be defined by broad cyclonic flow with embedded short
waves rotating through the great lakes and the northeast. The
first weak wave will be late Saturday and Sat night with only
light snow amts expected. High pressure builds in briefly on
Sunday before the next wave slides in from the W NW Sunday night
and Monday, with more light snow showers possible.

A very cold air mass is set to arrive Monday night along with
light lake effect snow showers into central ny. Low temperatures
Monday night will drop into the teens... And only rise into the
20s to around 30 on Tuesday. One more cold night Tuesday night
expected with lows dipping into the teens and lower 20s before a
warmer pattern looks to set in by Wednesday. Highs by the middle
of the week will rise into the mid to upper 30s.

Aviation 06z Thursday through Monday
06z update...

departing high pressure will keepVFR conditions going through
the morning. However, a large winter storm will cause snow to
develop south to north across the terminals this afternoon-early
evening. Expected arrival of the snow ranges from 19z for kavp
to between 20z-22z for kelm-kbgm-kith, to around or shortly
after 00z ksyr-krme. Fuel alternate to ifr conditions should
abruptly set in as snow begins. In the evening, high confidence
in sleet development for kavp and eventually some freezing rain,
as well as low level wind shear. For kbgm, sleet will mix in
for a time towards 06z Friday; remainder of ny terminals should
stay primarily snow. Surface winds through the period will
generally be east or southeast 4 to 8 knots, though east-
northeast for kavp.

Outlook...

late Thursday night through Friday morning... Gradual exit of
winter storm with snow or mix and significant restrictions.

Friday afternoon through Saturday night... Intermittent
restrictions from lake effect snow showers; mainly ksyr-krme.

Sunday through Monday... Weak passing wave with possible light
snow and associated restrictions.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... Winter storm watch from noon est today through Friday
afternoon for paz038>040.

Winter weather advisory from noon today to 1 pm est Friday for
paz043-044-047-048-072.

Ny... Winter storm watch from noon est today through Friday
afternoon for nyz009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
055>057.

Winter weather advisory from noon today to 1 pm est Friday for
nyz062.

Synopsis... Mdp
near term... Bjt mjm
short term... Jab
long term... Bjt
aviation... Mdp


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 46 mi47 min SSE 6 G 9.9 22°F 8°F
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 81 mi47 min 15°F 50°F1037 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Griffiss Air Force Base / Rome, NY24 mi66 minN 010.00 miFair16°F12°F84%1036.6 hPa

Wind History from RME (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW14
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W14NW13NW15NW11NW16
G23
NW13NW13--W14
G23
W16NW15NW19
G25
NW13NW8NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoSE4SE4E3CalmCalmCalmNW4CalmNW3W5W7NW6W7NW6NW9W10W10NW14NW15NW9NW7W4W4W6
2 days agoE4SE3CalmSE4SE3SE3E6E4SE5SE5SE5SW6SW4E3E5E5E4E6E5SE3E6SE5S7S13
G17

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.