Saturday, November17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Winchester Bay, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 4:51PM Saturday November 17, 2018 4:17 PM PST (00:17 UTC) Moonrise 2:31PMMoonset 1:01AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ310 Coos bay bar- coastal waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca out 10 nm- waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca from 10 to 60 nm- 134 pm pdt Wed may 29 2013 a long-duration moderate to strong north wind event is expected to last from this weekend into early next week. Winds should begin to increase Friday into Saturday...peaking Sunday with storm force wind gusts possible. Very steep and hazardous waves will accompany this wind event and mariners should prepare for dangerous conditions at sea. The strongest winds and highest seas will occur beyond 5 nm from shore.
PZZ300 230 Pm Pst Sat Nov 17 2018
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Offshore high pressure and a trough of low pressure near the coast have weakened. Relatively light winds and seas will persist into Tuesday. A weak front will move onshore Tuesday night into Wednesday. A stronger front will move onshore Thursday, and this may bring gale force south winds to the area. Heavy west swell may develop Thursday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Winchester Bay, OR
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location: 43.68, -124.2     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 172309 aaa
afdmfr
area forecast discussion... Corrected
national weather service medford or
309 pm pst Sat nov 17 2018

Updated aviation section
Short term Tonight through Tuesday night... Satellite imagery
shows an upper ridge axis overhead this afternoon, and clear skies
are being observed in most areas except for the roseburg area and
the coast south of CAPE blanco. The marine layer low clouds
streaming up the coast will become a fixture through early next
week. Also, the low clouds in roseburg are clearing late this
afternoon, but they are expected to return tonight, with some
patchy fog possible there and also in the grants pass and illinois
valley areas.

We maintain an air stagnation advisory for most valleys through
Monday night, and we've extended the advisory through Tuesday night
for west side valleys. We did this because mixing will likely be
poor again on Tuesday, and we don't expect winds to surface in west
side valleys on Tuesday ahead of the front. East of the cascades,
and near the coast, mixing should improve sufficiently to keep the
Tuesday morning expiration of the air stagnation advisory.

It should be noted that we do expect some smoke to enter the
forecast area, from south to north, from the camp fire over northern
california. This will occur Sunday through Tuesday. Siskiyou
county will be the main part of the forecast area impacted by
some surface smoke, already pushing northward some per satellite
imagery. Then, as the smoke moves into oregon it should be mainly
aloft, in the form of haze. We're not expecting any air quality
impacts in oregon from this smoke, but again, conditions could get
a bit hazy Sunday into Monday.

Tuesday will be a transition day for the forecast area, shifting
from a stagnant, dry and warm pattern (warm days, cold nights)
towards a more typical late november weather pattern of
increasing winds, rain and mountain snow. Conditions will become
breezy east of the cascades, in the shasta valley, and at the coast
and over the coastal waters.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday...

*travel delays will be possible for the thanksgiving holiday
starting Wednesday through the weekend.

*snow expected on the highest passes, including highway 140 near
lake of the woods and the diamond lake junction on Thursday and
Friday. Snow levels are expected to be near, but higher than
siskiyou summit.

*windy conditions could make travel difficult for high profile
vehicles east of the cascades and along the coastal highways.

Wednesday is going to mark the beginning of a drastic pattern
change, just in time for the thanksgiving holiday and the weekend
afterward. We are expecting several fronts to come through and bring
moderate precipitation to the coast, the coastal range, and the mt.

Shasta area. The first front on Wednesday is expected to be the
weakest of the three fronts, which will have to work to break down
the area of high pressure that is currently over the pacific
northwest. This will bring mainly breezy to gusty winds east of the
cascades and at the coast.

The second front will arrive on Thursday, and will be much stronger.

The ECMWF model has come more in line with the GFS and are
indicating the moderate to brief periods of heavy precipitation
across the aforementioned areas. The timing of the system still
needs to be ironed out, but the major models and ensembles are
zeroing in on Thursday evening.

The big question is going to be what happens with the snow levels
and snow. We are expecting snow across the cascades and the higher
peaks of the siskiyous. This includes mt. Ashland. For the mountain
passes, the snow levels will be around 5000 to 6000 feet on
Wednesday and lower to near 4500 feet for Thursday night into
Friday. This means that we are expecting snow on our highest passes,
including highway 140 near lake of the woods, diamond lake junction
area. Although we are expecting snow levels to be higher than
siskiyou summit, it is worth noting that this is in the extended
forecast; so confidence is only so-so.

The next front will arrive Friday into Saturday and continue into
the weekend. The system will be a bit weaker, so the precipitation
is not expected to be as strong. Overall, if this forecast verifies,
these systems will quickly bring southern oregon and northern
california back to near normal precipitation and snowfall for
november. Thus, it is recommended to keep an eye on the forecast for
updates. -schaaf

Aviation For the 18 00z tafs... Over the coastal waters and along
the coast, areas of ifr CIGS are spreading north over the waters and
will continue to do so through Sunday morning. Some coastal areas,
including koth, will see MVFR ifr CIGS vsbys in low clouds and fog
late tonight into Sunday morning. Over the umpqua basin and the
illinois valley... Areas of ifr CIGS will return to the same areas
late tonight into Sunday morning, including krbg. Over the
remainder of the west side...VFR conditions will prevail through
Sunday morning. East of the cascades... Areas of MVFR CIGS will clear
toVFR this afternoon. Most of the area will remainVFR through
Sunday morning, but local ifr CIGS vsbys will develop in some of the
valley locations late tonight into Sunday morning, including klmt.

Smoke haze will continue to be prevalent, which could cause periodic
reduced vsbys in northern california.

Marine Updated 200 pm pst Saturday 17 november 2018... Offshore
high pressure and a trough of low pressure near the coast have
weakened. Relatively light winds and seas will persist into Tuesday.

A weak front will move onshore Tuesday night into Wednesday. A
stronger front will move onshore Thursday, and this may bring gale
force south winds to the area. Heavy west swell may develop Thursday
night.

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... Air stagnation advisory until 4 am pst Tuesday for orz021.

Air stagnation advisory until 4 am pst Wednesday for orz023.

Air stagnation advisory until 4 am pst Tuesday for orz024>031.

Ca... None.

Pacific coastal waters... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 19 mi24 min 54°F6 ft
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 24 mi41 min W 1.9 G 1.9 50°F1016.7 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Oregon Regional Airport, OR17 mi21 minW 410.00 miFair59°F48°F67%1016.9 hPa

Wind History from OTH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN10N5CalmCalmCalmN3CalmN3CalmN6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4NE5NE4E6E6E5W7W4
1 day agoN7N7NE3CalmCalmCalmN3NE3N3N4CalmNE5SE4CalmCalmNE3CalmCalmW4NW4N5N10N11N12
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmSE3CalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmS5N5CalmNE3NW5N4CalmN8N12N16N12

Tide / Current Tables for Entrance, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Entrance
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Sat -- 01:01 AM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 01:10 AM PST     1.53 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:13 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:11 AM PST     6.14 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:19 PM PST     2.73 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:30 PM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:49 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:57 PM PST     5.15 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.81.51.72.23.14.25.15.86.165.44.63.83.12.82.83.23.84.555.14.94.33.5

Tide / Current Tables for Reedsport, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Reedsport
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:00 AM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 02:31 AM PST     1.27 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:13 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:17 AM PST     5.96 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:30 PM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:40 PM PST     2.27 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:48 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:03 PM PST     4.99 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.51.81.31.31.82.63.74.85.65.95.85.34.53.62.82.42.32.73.34.14.754.84.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.