Tuesday, January16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Winchester Bay, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:43AMSunset 5:10PM Tuesday January 16, 2018 8:57 PM PST (04:57 UTC) Moonrise 7:25AMMoonset 5:04PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ310 Coos bay bar- coastal waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca out 10 nm- waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca from 10 to 60 nm- 134 pm pdt Wed may 29 2013 a long-duration moderate to strong north wind event is expected to last from this weekend into early next week. Winds should begin to increase Friday into Saturday...peaking Sunday with storm force wind gusts possible. Very steep and hazardous waves will accompany this wind event and mariners should prepare for dangerous conditions at sea. The strongest winds and highest seas will occur beyond 5 nm from shore.
PZZ300 802 Pm Pst Tue Jan 16 2018
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Conditions will be hazardous to small craft tonight due to steep westerly swell and increasing south winds. A strong front will move through on Wednesday with strong south gale to storm force winds. The front will move onshore Wednesday evening, with a very high and dangerous westerly swell to follow late Wednesday night into Thursday. Seas will remain elevated with weaker systems moving through Thursday night into Friday. Another strong front will move through Saturday night into Sunday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Winchester Bay, OR
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location: 43.68, -124.2     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 170413
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
813 pm pst Tue jan 16 2018

Update A warm front lifting north of the area tonight will
bring possible rain to the coast and coastal mountains, but
inland, expect dry conditions with valley fog tonight into
tomorrow morning. Made some updates to temperatures tonight...

many areas west of the cascades will reach their min temperature
around midnight, then slowly start warming... And continue warming
throughout the afternoon! Highs tomorrow will be 10 to 20 degrees
above normal for most areas (besides the coast) tomorrow. Winds
will start ramping up tomorrow afternoon, and there are multiple
wind headlines in effect in the usual spots: the shasta valley,
parts of eastern klamath county, and much of lake county. A wind
advisory was also issued for highway 299 at cedar pass for
tomorrow afternoon and night. The going forecast is on track, and
further updates will be made tonight. In the meantime, see
previous discussion for more detailed information. -msc

Aviation 17 00z TAF cycle...VFR conditions are expected to
continue through the TAF period along the coast. A warm front will
bring lowering CIGS around 6z, but it should remainVFR. The main
concern will be wind speed shear starting around 9z and lasting into
most of Wednesday morning at which point gusty winds are expected to
develop at north bend. Meanwhile, clouds are thinning out west of the
cascades and it could clear out long enough for low clouds and areas
of fog to develop in the westside valleys, including roseburg and
medford. Clouds will move in from the west later this evening, it
may not be enough to keep fog from developing late tonight, but it
could result in borderline MVFR CIGS at roseburg later this evening.

Fog and the low clouds should be shallow and dissipate later
Wednesday morning as surface winds begin to increase. Wind speed
shear will be a concern at medford and roseburg and could lower to
around 1000 feet and this has been reflected in the taf.

-petrucelli

Marine Updated 230 pm pst Tuesday 16 jan 2018... Conditions
will be hazardous to small craft through tonight due to steep
westerly swell and increasing south winds. A strong front will move
through the coastal waters Wednesday with strong south gales to most
of the area and storm force winds and or gusts beyond 15 nm of the
coast north of CAPE blanco. The front will move onshore Wednesday
evening, with a very high and dangerous westerly swell to follow
late Wednesday night into Thursday. The latest model runs indicate
that the swell will peak at around 27 feet early Thursday. A high
surf warning is in effect. Bar conditions will be dangerous with
extremely rough surf. Seas will remain elevated with weaker systems
moving through Thursday night into Friday. Another strong front will
move through Saturday night into Sunday.

Prev discussion issued 305 pm pst Tue jan 16 2018
short term... There will be a day of quiet weather before the next
storm impacts our forecast area. For tonight stable atmosphere
returns with low clouds and fog in the valleys. The next front
however will approach the coast a warm front. This front could
provide enough lift for occasional light rain at the curry county
coast and the higher terrain of western siskiyou county. Rain is
expected to move into the coastal waters Wednesday morning but
precipitation should hold off from reaching the coast until
Wednesday afternoon. South to north pressure gradients increase
significantly in the afternoon, enough for wind advisory level in
the shasta valley and part of klamath and lake counties.

Confidence is high on measurable rain at the coast and the umpqua
basin for Wednesday afternoon, but low for the rogue valley.

Increasing southeast winds Wednesday afternoon and early evening
will lead to downsloping condition for the rogue valley and rain
could hold off until late Wednesday evening. Also with southeast
winds into jackson county, we are leaning toward a warm day and
medford- ashland could see high temperature around or into the
lower 60s Thursday.

The cold front is expected to move slowly into our area. Snow
levels on Thursday lower to around 6000 feet from cascades west
and around 7000 feet east, then 3500-4000 feet Thursday night and
Friday and 2500 feet Friday night. Between 8-12 inches of snow is
expected at crater lake and mount ashland in the two day stretch
from Thursday to Friday night. Fb
long term... Saturday through Tuesday.

The general consensus is the pattern will remain fairly active
during this time period. There will be some breaks in the action,
but not for an extended period of time. There are difference in
the timing of the next front on Saturday. Particularly with the
ecmwf which is about 12 hours slower with the arrival of the front
and colder air. The GFS and canadian are in better agreement. The
slower arrival of the front shown by the ECMWF is from the most
recent run. The previous run was similar to the GFS (still with
some minor differences). The forecast for Saturday will lean
towards the GFS canadian solution. With that said, winds will be
the main impact Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. Winds
have a chance to reach warning criteria at the coast late Saturday
afternoon and evening. High end advisory levels are likely in the
shasta valley and portions of the eastside Saturday night into
Sunday morning with some areas like weed and summer lake reaching
high wind criteria. Precipitation on Saturday should be on the
light side overall. Saturday night into Sunday will be highly
dependent on the timing of the front. Even then, it looks like the
highest precip amounts will be in the usual areas. The coast and
coastal mountains and the cascades. Snowfall accumulations will
also be dependent on the timing of the front. Thus, confidence is
low with rainfall and snowfall accumulations and could change from
what's currently in the forecast, so watch for updates on this.

Depending on how things shake out this weekend we could catch a
relative break in the action Monday. Moist northwest flow on Monday
will result in showers mainly confined to the coast. Tuesday will be
a wild card. The ECMWF shows a dry solution while the GFS and
canadian show moisture being directed into northern california
towards modoc and siskiyou county. -petrucelli

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... High surf warning from 4 pm Wednesday to 7 am pst Saturday for
orz021-022.

High wind warning from 4 pm Wednesday to 4 am pst Thursday for
orz030-031.

Wind advisory from 1 pm Wednesday to 4 am pst Thursday for
orz030-031.

Ca... High wind warning from 4 pm Wednesday to 4 am pst Thursday for
caz081.

Wind advisory from 1 pm Wednesday to 4 am pst Thursday for
caz081.

Wind advisory from 4 pm Wednesday to 4 am pst Thursday for
caz085.

Pacific coastal waters... Small craft advisory until 7 am pst Wednesday for
pzz350-356-370-376.

Gale warning from 7 am to 7 pm pst Wednesday for
pzz350-356-370-376.

Hazardous seas warning from 7 pm Wednesday to 4 pm pst Saturday
for pzz350-356-370-376.

Storm warning from 7 am to 7 pm pst Wednesday for pzz370.

Msc fjb map


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 19 mi34 min 53°F12 ft
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 24 mi81 min Calm G 1 51°F1021.7 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Oregon Regional Airport, OR17 mi61 minSE 510.00 miFair48°F46°F96%1021.8 hPa

Wind History from OTH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5S6S6S9S5S5S7S7SE6SE6SE5SE4S7S8S5S6SE6SE6SE5E3CalmSE5CalmSE5
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Tide / Current Tables for Entrance, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Entrance
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:19 AM PST     6.00 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:22 AM PST     3.29 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:24 AM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:46 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:20 AM PST     7.46 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:04 PM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:06 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:11 PM PST     -0.32 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:18 PM PST     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
65.95.34.53.83.33.444.966.97.47.36.453.21.50.3-0.3-0.10.92.23.75

Tide / Current Tables for Reedsport, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Reedsport
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:26 AM PST     5.80 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:43 AM PST     2.74 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:24 AM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:46 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:26 PM PST     7.21 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:04 PM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:06 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:18 PM PST     New Moon
Tue -- 07:32 PM PST     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.25.75.75.24.43.52.92.83.34.25.46.57.17.16.45.13.51.90.6-0.2-0.20.61.83.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.