Sunrise 6:17 AM   Sunset 8:12 PM Moonrise 8:28 PM   Moonset 5:27 AM

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PZZ350 Coastal Waters From Florence To Cape Blanco Or Out 10 Nm- 842 Am Pdt Wed Apr 24 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from Thursday morning through Thursday evening - .
Today - E wind 5 kt - .backing to nw in the afternoon. Wind waves less than 2 ft. SWell W 3 ft at 9 seconds. Tonight - NW wind 5 kt - .backing to S 5 to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves less than 2 ft. SWell W 4 ft at 10 seconds. Thu - S wind 15 to 20 kt - .rising to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves sw 4 ft at 4 seconds. SWell nw 4 to 5 ft at 9 seconds. Rain.Thu night - SW wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves W 5 ft at 6 seconds. SWell W 5 to 6 ft at 8 seconds. Rain in the evening, then showers after midnight. Fri - W wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves nw 4 ft at 6 seconds. SWell W 6 to 7 ft at 9 seconds. Showers.Fri night - NW wind 5 to 10 kt - .backing to W after midnight. Wind waves nw 3 ft at 6 seconds. SWell W 5 to 7 ft at 9 seconds. Chance of showers. Sat - S wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves W 2 ft at 5 seconds. SWell W 5 ft at 11 seconds. Sun - SW wind 10 to 15 kt - .veering to W after midnight. Wind waves sw 2 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 8 to 9 ft at 11 seconds.

PZZ300 842 Am Pdt Wed Apr 24 2024
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters - Winds and seas will remain calm through today. Thursday, a front will move across the area and bring gusty southerly winds. Steep seas are expected north of gold beach on Thursday afternoon and evening. Then westerly seas will build on Friday. Additional fronts will move across the area Saturday into early next week.

FXUS66 KMFR 241718 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1018 AM PDT Wed Apr 24 2024

New Aviation Section

.AVIATION (18Z TAFs)...

Clouds will continue to infiltrate over the region today and tonight ahead of a front expected tomorrow afternoon. This front will bring rain to the coast, impacting both North Bend and perhaps as far inland as Roseburg before this cycle ends. Medford may see rain, but its more likely to be in the next cycle just beyond 18Z tomorrow. This front will bring low clouds and MVFR conditions to the coast, but inland TAFs may likely stay in VFR for this cycle.

-Guerrero

PREV DISCUSSION
/Issued 913 AM PDT Wed Apr 24 2024/

DISCUSSION...An update is not necessary. 89 lightning strikes were recorded in Siskiyou and Modoc counties yesterday. This afternoon and evening's count is expected to be lower, but there is a slight chance of thunderstorms (and a chance of light showers for a broader area of northern California and south central Oregon) for far eastern Siskiyou, Modoc, and southern Lake counties, including Alturas and Lakeview. Though, the larger scale scenario will be different, there is also a slight chance of thunderstorms on Friday afternoon/evening focused upon much the same area.

In between, a much colder air mass accompanies rain as it begins at the coast around midnight tonight, spread to the Cascades before noon Thursday, then lighter amounts for the east side (primarily Klamath County) beginning Thursday afternoon.
Additional showers will follow across the area through Friday night.

The next wave will bring another chance of mainly west side showers Saturday into Saturday night. The pattern looks to remain active next week, with high temperatures remaining below normal.

-DW

AVIATION
24/12Z TAFs
While most areas are at VFR, stratus ceilings along the Oregon coast and into northern California are lowering levels to MVFR or IFR. Periods of LIFR ceilings and visibilities have been present around Klamath Falls and Alturas this morning. Sunlight will steadily clear these ceilings out through the morning.

VFR levels will continue through the day, with low stratus expected to return later tonight. An approaching front will bring chances of showers to the Oregon coast near the end of the TAF period. Locally lower ceilings and visibilities will be possible as the front moves over the area in future forecasts. -TAD

MARINE
Updated 825 AM Wednesday, April 24, 2024
Seas will remain low into Thursday morning, with light northerly winds continuing in a period of calm weather.

A weak front will approach the area Thursday morning, bringing showers and southerly winds with gusts up to 30 kts over waters north of Gold Beach. Wind-built steep seas are expected in these waters, and a Small Craft Advisory will be in place on Thursday from 11 AM through 11 PM to highlight these conditions.

Winds will calm on Friday, but westerly swell behind Thursday's front could maintain steep seas. While there's moderate confidence in these general conditions, the timing and areas affected will benefit from additional information. Current guidance still suggests very low chances (10-20%) of seas exceeding 9 feet in this period, so more hazardous conditions are not expected.

Active weather looks to continue through the weekend and into next week, with a weak front approaching the Oregon coast on Saturday afternoon and a low pressure system settling near the Canadian coast late Monday bringing westerly winds and swell. Current outcomes suggest the Saturday system will be unimpactful but more chaotic conditions are possible on Monday evening. -TAD

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 521 AM PDT Wed Apr 24 2024/

DISCUSSION...There will be a shift in the warm and dry pattern that we have been having. This shift back to cool, frequently wet, more typically spring-like weather will be more readily apparent beginning on Thursday. But, the cooling trend will begin today, with highs around 5 to 10 degrees lower than today.

Our area of thunderstorm activity will shift very slightly southeastward today with a late day slight chance to chance of thunderstorms again for southern, central, and eastern Siskiyou County eastward and northeastward across Modoc and southern portions of Klamath and Lake counties. This includes Tennant, Alturas, and Lakeview.

By the end of Wednesday night, a wet cold front is expected to be just west of the coastal waters, with rain developing at the coast Thursday morning.

PREVIOUS LONG TERM...Thursday morning through Tuesday night.

The warm and dry weather comes to an end on Thursday as the next wave and frontal system hits the region. We're expecting rain along the coast and west of the Cascades. The NBM is predicting a 100% chance of precipitation late Thursday morning through late Thursday evening with chances of precipitation lowering to around 60% east of the Cascades. Snow levels will be around 5000 to 7000 feet depending where one is located with the higher snow levels east of the Cascades. Like always, snow over the higher Cascades is expected and Crater Lake will see accumulating snow fall Thursday into Friday morning.

The atmosphere shows some instability by later Friday, so thunderstorms were inserted into the forecast around that time. The probability of thunder is around 15% and covers large swaths of the forecast area. Given that an upper level wave is starting to depart the region, thunderstorms that do form will likely be weak and a few cloud to ground flashes seems the most likely scenario.

Another shortwave and warm front will push into the forecast area around Saturday. The chance of precipitation is only about 50% west of the Cascades as the ensembles might have some issues with timing or perhaps moisture content. Those probabilities drop off in northern California and east of the Cascades down to 20 percent. So some of the forecast area as a modest chance of rain, other areas will likely stay dry.

Finally, the ECMWF and GFS are both showing a stronger low in the Gulf of the Alaska, although the ensemble anomalies are not as excited about how unusual it is for this time of year. In general, it looks like zonal flow is setting up under a strong west to east mid level jet, which will likely keep Spring like temperatures in check with a cooler moist flow for the weekend into next week. There is a small set of ensemble members(15%), which show a stronger ridge building in southern Oregon between Sunday evening and Monday evening, which would lead to warmer temperatures and drier weather than what is currently in the forecast.

-Smith

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR
CA
None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

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Entrance
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Wed -- 12:47 AM PDT     6.66 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:18 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:26 AM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:27 AM PDT     -0.39 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:00 PM PDT     5.36 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:09 PM PDT     2.24 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:11 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:27 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Entrance, Umpqua River, Oregon, Tide feet

Reedsport
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Wed -- 01:53 AM PDT     6.46 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:17 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:26 AM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:48 AM PDT     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:06 PM PDT     5.20 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:11 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:30 PM PDT     1.86 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:27 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Reedsport, Umpqua River, Oregon, Tide feet

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