Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Harbor Beach, MI
March 19, 2024 1:50 AM EDT (05:50 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:31 AM Sunset 7:42 PM Moonrise 1:03 PM Moonset 4:24 AM |
LHZ441 Port Austin To Harbor Beach Mi- 937 Pm Edt Mon Mar 18 2024
Rest of tonight - West winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots early in the morning. Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of light snow showers this evening, then a chance of light snow showers after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of light snow showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday night - West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots in the late evening and overnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the late evening and overnight.
Wednesday - Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots increasing to 30 knots early in the afternoon. Partly cloudy in the morning becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 5 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet. A small craft advisory may be needed.
see lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
see lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ400
No data
No data
Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 190341 AFDDTX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1141 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Reinforcing shot of arctic air for Wednesday and Thursday with scattered snow flurries.
- Increasing likelihood for accumulating snowfall for Southeast Michigan late Thursday night into Friday.
AVIATION
The low level flow will back toward the southwest tonight. This will drive a much drier low level airmass into Se Mi, which will scour out the lower strato cu deck prior to daybreak. This is also driving a lowering of the inversion base, resulting in inbound ceiling heights dropping to MVFR. Observations trends are supportive of carrying some MVFR based ceilings until the main push of drier low level air arrives. The southwest gradient will quickly increase during the morning. Model soundings indicate steepening low level lapse rates, aided by diurnal heating, with 25 to 30 knots winds within the mixed layer. This will support ample gustiness to the sfc winds during the daytime Tuesday. The sfc cold front is forecast to track across the area late Tues afternoon, leading to a veering of the winds to the west.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES
* Moderate in ceilings aob 5000 feet early this morning. Low today.
* Low in crosswind thresholds being exceeded Tuesday afternoon.
PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 302 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
DISCUSSION...
Scattered flurries or snow showers will end this evening as weak forcing settles south and diurnal instability ebbs, but additional activity will be possible late tonight into Tuesday as isentropic lift increases in advance of approaching clipper low pressure. This will be focused mainly over the Thumb into Lake Huron on points north and east with minor accumulations not out of the question.
Further south, expect only a few flurries at most. With this low pressure taking a northern track, relatively mild southwesterly winds will bring temperatures back into the mid 40s by afternoon.
Arctic high pressure will then settle back into the area midweek in the wake of the next passing cold front Tuesday night to Wednesday.
Isolated to scattered flurries will be possible again with this next reinforcing shot of colder air late Tuesday night into Wednesday with dry weather expected Thursday as the high pressure begins to build into the area. High temperatures will be below average during this period with highs generally in the 30s.
A more significant Pacific shortwave is still expected to encroach on the area late Thursday night into Friday. Some model differences are beginning to emerge in terms of how amplified this system will become (particularly in the H7-H85 layer) as it translates from the northern plains into the southern Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley and interacts to a degree with base of Polar Vortex along the southern shore of Hudson Bay as it wobbles south. Both timing and north/south positioning of the main areas of lift will be impacted by the eventual configuration of this system.
Assuming models trend to an increasingly amplified system (or at least maintain the degree of amplification depicted in the more aggressive 12z models), would expect a slightly slower progression of snow into the area (mainly into Friday) and also a more northern pivot of the best warm frontal forcing to the east and northeast of the low pressure center. While this fluctuation in the degree of system amplification complicates the forecast and lower confidence in the location of best forcing (hence best snowfall rates), it does still appear that widespread accumulating snow will occur. A later start time into Friday of the best rates will likely cut into totals somewhat given the late March timing, but 1-2 inches seem plausible and the possibly for more than that cannot be ruled out.
The southern periphery of a bitterly cold arctic airmass settles back into the area in the wake of this system so expect upper 30s to lower 40s for high temperatures from north to south across the forecast area during the upcoming weekend. With the arctic high positioned to the north, dry weather is expected. A more active pattern re-establishes early next week (possible as early as late Sunday) as the next storm system spins up to the west and tracks into the region. A plethora of solutions exist at the Day 7 time frame as to how this system may evolve. Confidence in details, as would be expected, is quite low at this time.
MARINE...
Northern edge of Mississippi river valley high pressure briefly builds into the central Great Lakes tonight allowing for a very shortlived respite in winds and waves. Developing southwest flow quickly ramps up by early Tuesday morning ahead of a clipper system likely requiring the (re)issuance of small craft advisories in the Saginaw Bay and the MI waters of Erie. Aforementioned clipper drops through the area daytime Tuesday bringing another round of snow showers as well as drawing an arctic airmass into the Great Lakes.
Deepening low pressure over the Northeast in concert with this colder airmass offers a window for potential NW low-end gales over the northern half of Lake Huron daytime Wednesday. A Gale Watch is now in effect for these waters for the majority of the day Wednesday. Winds then weaken into Thursday as the east Coast low slides into the Canadian maritimes.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday evening for LHZ361>363.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 4 PM EDT Tuesday for LHZ421-422.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 4 PM EDT Tuesday for LEZ444.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1141 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Reinforcing shot of arctic air for Wednesday and Thursday with scattered snow flurries.
- Increasing likelihood for accumulating snowfall for Southeast Michigan late Thursday night into Friday.
AVIATION
The low level flow will back toward the southwest tonight. This will drive a much drier low level airmass into Se Mi, which will scour out the lower strato cu deck prior to daybreak. This is also driving a lowering of the inversion base, resulting in inbound ceiling heights dropping to MVFR. Observations trends are supportive of carrying some MVFR based ceilings until the main push of drier low level air arrives. The southwest gradient will quickly increase during the morning. Model soundings indicate steepening low level lapse rates, aided by diurnal heating, with 25 to 30 knots winds within the mixed layer. This will support ample gustiness to the sfc winds during the daytime Tuesday. The sfc cold front is forecast to track across the area late Tues afternoon, leading to a veering of the winds to the west.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES
* Moderate in ceilings aob 5000 feet early this morning. Low today.
* Low in crosswind thresholds being exceeded Tuesday afternoon.
PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 302 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
DISCUSSION...
Scattered flurries or snow showers will end this evening as weak forcing settles south and diurnal instability ebbs, but additional activity will be possible late tonight into Tuesday as isentropic lift increases in advance of approaching clipper low pressure. This will be focused mainly over the Thumb into Lake Huron on points north and east with minor accumulations not out of the question.
Further south, expect only a few flurries at most. With this low pressure taking a northern track, relatively mild southwesterly winds will bring temperatures back into the mid 40s by afternoon.
Arctic high pressure will then settle back into the area midweek in the wake of the next passing cold front Tuesday night to Wednesday.
Isolated to scattered flurries will be possible again with this next reinforcing shot of colder air late Tuesday night into Wednesday with dry weather expected Thursday as the high pressure begins to build into the area. High temperatures will be below average during this period with highs generally in the 30s.
A more significant Pacific shortwave is still expected to encroach on the area late Thursday night into Friday. Some model differences are beginning to emerge in terms of how amplified this system will become (particularly in the H7-H85 layer) as it translates from the northern plains into the southern Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley and interacts to a degree with base of Polar Vortex along the southern shore of Hudson Bay as it wobbles south. Both timing and north/south positioning of the main areas of lift will be impacted by the eventual configuration of this system.
Assuming models trend to an increasingly amplified system (or at least maintain the degree of amplification depicted in the more aggressive 12z models), would expect a slightly slower progression of snow into the area (mainly into Friday) and also a more northern pivot of the best warm frontal forcing to the east and northeast of the low pressure center. While this fluctuation in the degree of system amplification complicates the forecast and lower confidence in the location of best forcing (hence best snowfall rates), it does still appear that widespread accumulating snow will occur. A later start time into Friday of the best rates will likely cut into totals somewhat given the late March timing, but 1-2 inches seem plausible and the possibly for more than that cannot be ruled out.
The southern periphery of a bitterly cold arctic airmass settles back into the area in the wake of this system so expect upper 30s to lower 40s for high temperatures from north to south across the forecast area during the upcoming weekend. With the arctic high positioned to the north, dry weather is expected. A more active pattern re-establishes early next week (possible as early as late Sunday) as the next storm system spins up to the west and tracks into the region. A plethora of solutions exist at the Day 7 time frame as to how this system may evolve. Confidence in details, as would be expected, is quite low at this time.
MARINE...
Northern edge of Mississippi river valley high pressure briefly builds into the central Great Lakes tonight allowing for a very shortlived respite in winds and waves. Developing southwest flow quickly ramps up by early Tuesday morning ahead of a clipper system likely requiring the (re)issuance of small craft advisories in the Saginaw Bay and the MI waters of Erie. Aforementioned clipper drops through the area daytime Tuesday bringing another round of snow showers as well as drawing an arctic airmass into the Great Lakes.
Deepening low pressure over the Northeast in concert with this colder airmass offers a window for potential NW low-end gales over the northern half of Lake Huron daytime Wednesday. A Gale Watch is now in effect for these waters for the majority of the day Wednesday. Winds then weaken into Thursday as the east Coast low slides into the Canadian maritimes.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday evening for LHZ361>363.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 4 PM EDT Tuesday for LHZ421-422.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 4 PM EDT Tuesday for LEZ444.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI | 1 mi | 51 min | WNW 7G | 30°F | 43°F | 29.87 | 21°F | |
KP58 | 15 mi | 56 min | WNW 11G | 31°F | 29.92 | 19°F | ||
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI | 49 mi | 71 min | WSW 18G | 30°F | 29.91 |
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Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KBAX HURON COUNTY MEMORIAL,MI | 18 sm | 15 min | W 07 | 10 sm | Overcast | 30°F | 18°F | 59% | 29.89 |
Detroit, MI,
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