Wednesday, September20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Harbor Beach, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 7:30PM Wednesday September 20, 2017 12:32 PM EDT (16:32 UTC) Moonrise 6:31AMMoonset 7:05PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LHZ441 Port Austin To Harbor Beach Mi- 948 Am Edt Wed Sep 20 2017
Rest of today..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy in the late morning and early afternoon becoming partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Mostly clear. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the morning. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ441 Expires:201709202100;;666771 FZUS53 KDTX 201357 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 948 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ441-202100-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Harbor Beach, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 43.84, -82.65     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kdtx 201057
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
657 am edt Wed sep 20 2017

Aviation
The departure of a mid cloud deck overnight with light winds and
abundant low level moisture has led to the development of widespread
fog low stratus this morning. Taking into consideration a late
september Sun angle, it will likely take until late morning or early
afternoon for conditions to improve to MVFR. Afternoon mixing will
attempt to erode the low clouds. Slight warming above the cloud layer
should hold MVFR or low endVFR strato CU in place through the
afternoon. A frontal boundary will stall as it lifts into northwest
lower mi tonight. mbs will be in fairly close proximity to the
instability axis. This will pose a chance for some late night
convection at mbs, the chances of which remain a bit low to include
in the terminal attm.

For dtw... Occasional dense fog is expected to persist through
roughly 13z before daytime mixing starts a steady improving trend.

The onset of daytime heating will lead to widely variable cig vsby
conditions through the morning.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings below 5000 ft through this afternoon. Low
tonight.

* high in CIGS vsby at or below 200ft one half mile through roughly
13z.

Prev discussion
Issued at 344 am edt Wed sep 20 2017
discussion...

upper level low over ohio is slowly drifting SE away from lower mi
as longwave ridge continues to strengthen overhead. The weakening
low has sent one final moisture surge, located along the 700-850mb
theta E gradient, northward which is about to pass over saginaw bay
as of 07z. This appears to be its last gasp with any lingering
showers more of a mist out of the low stratus and fog due to the
abundant low level moisture in place. The low will fade away through
the day as ridging overtakes it.

Meanwhile further west, a strong shortwave rotating around the
longwave trough will get slung northeastward through the northern
plains into canada with the aid of a 125+ knot jet. Though this will
be far removed from the great lakes, it will pull a warm front north
through lower mi today allowing a thermal ridge approaching 17c at
850mb into the state. It will also force a cold front into the
midwest, draped from the western u.P. Down through wi into il. This
will be the focus for thunderstorm develop today into tonight west
of SE mi. The warm sector will provide us a fairly stout cap between
900-700mb which will likely prevent any storms from bleeding east
into our cwa. Models are keying in on a period after 09z
tonight Thursday morning where a wave tracking along the front
through mid mi could bring a period of shower storms to the saginaw
region. Then the front will have inched closer to lower mi keeping
low chance pops around on Thursday as well. At this point thinking
is it will be difficult for showers to be able to break the cap and
majority of the area will remain dry through the forecast period.

Other main issue will be the heat. Models are being very consistent
with the ridge supporting 850 925mb temps of 17c +20c respectively.

With dewpoints holding in the 60s limit nocturnal cooling, high temps
should easily make it into the mid 80s and possible upper 80s
Thursday through the weekend. These temps will be nearing 15f above
average for late september. Record highs for all 3 climate sites
(dtw, fnt, mbs) are all around 90f through this stretch. Something
to watch for.

Marine...

south-southeast winds (generally under 15 knots) will persist across
lake huron through the end of the week as high pressure expands from
quebec into the eastern great lakes. The winds across lake st clair
and erie will have a more easterly component, but will be much
lighter. The winds will weaken slightly over the weekend as the high
pressure expands into lower michigan.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Sc
discussion... Drk
marine... ... .Sc
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 1 mi44 min SSE 8.9 G 11 67°F 1015.9 hPa66°F
KP58 15 mi41 min ESE 13 69°F 1015.4 hPa66°F
PSCM4 30 mi32 min S 8 G 9.9 67°F 1016.9 hPa (+0.0)
45008 - S HURON 43NM East of Oscoda, MI 33 mi42 min SE 7.8 G 7.8 68°F 66°F1017.1 hPa (+0.4)
45149 - Southern Lake Huron 37 mi92 min SSE 7.8 G 9.7 67°F 67°F1016.8 hPa (+0.4)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 49 mi52 min SE 6 G 7 68°F 1016.9 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 51 mi52 min ESE 1.9 G 6 72°F 1016.3 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
Last
24hr
NE9
E5
E4
E2
NE5
NE6
NE5
NE4
NE2
E3
N4
NE2
--
SE3
S4
SE3
S2
SE1
SE2
SE4
SE4
S8
S8
SE7
1 day
ago
N14
N14
G17
N14
G17
N11
G15
N10
NE10
NE9
NE9
NE8
N7
NW4
NW3
NW2
NE6
NE6
NE7
NE6
NE7
NE8
NE9
NE9
G12
NE11
NE9
G12
NE8
2 days
ago
SE14
SE14
G17
SE13
G16
S15
S15
S11
G17
S12
S6
G10
SW6
SW7
W1
G4
S1
S4
SW2
SW2
N8
G11
N15
N13
G18
N14
N15
N14
G17
N12
G19
N13
G17
N14

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Hope, MI15 mi41 minESE 13 mi69°F66°F90%1015.4 hPa
Huron County Memorial Airport, MI18 mi37 minSSE 44.00 miMostly Cloudy with Haze73°F67°F84%1016.6 hPa

Wind History from P58 (wind in knots)
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
Last 24hrNE11E8E6NE6NE8E8E7E8E6SE6SE3SE5E4CalmE3SE3SE4CalmSE3SE6SE4SE8SE8E13
1 day ago--33N8NE8NE8NE8NE8NE7NE5CalmCalmCalmNE7NE6NE7NE6NE6NE8NE8NE11E12E12NE10
2 days agoSW74S7464SE4CalmCalm4E4SE6CalmCalmNW4N7
G18
4
G18
4Calm43N34NW7

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (12,3,4,5)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.