Wednesday, April26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Harbor Beach, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:27AMSunset 8:27PM Wednesday April 26, 2017 2:00 AM EDT (06:00 UTC) Moonrise 5:57AMMoonset 7:48PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ441 Port Austin To Harbor Beach Mi- 957 Pm Edt Tue Apr 25 2017
Rest of tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy in the late evening and early morning becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy in the morning...then partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy with scattered showers and Thunderstorms in the morning...then mostly cloudy with numerous light showers and scattered Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet. A small craft advisory may be needed. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ441 Expires:201704260915;;269318 FZUS53 KDTX 260157 NSHDTX NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST FOR MICHIGAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 957 PM EDT TUE APR 25 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE WAVES ARE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT - THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. OCCASIONAL WAVE HEIGHT IS THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/10 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. LHZ441-260915-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Harbor Beach, MI
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location: 43.84, -82.65     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 260404
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1204 am edt Wed apr 26 2017

Aviation
Late evening radar composite depicted some respectable convection
over central lake michigan down through western indiana that has
shown a diminishing trend up to press time. The remaining light
showers are expected to continue weakening with time while
associated mid clouds continue to expand. These clouds, along with
surface wind lingering around 5 knots through the night, supports
less fog in line with our going forecast for the terminals. A brief
mention of borderlineVFR/MVFR restriction remains warranted from
before sunrise through about mid morning, slightly longer over fnt
to mbs. The possibility remains for some stratus as well which would
materialize with greater coverage if mid clouds fail to hold while
the low level moisture axis moves toward and into lower michigan to
the vicinity of the terminal corridor. Model soundings remain weakly
capped for convection along the boundary through the afternoon while
daytime heating helps produce a gusty south to southeast wind.

Showers and thunderstorms are then expected to move in from the
associated cold front over the midwest Wednesday evening possibly
brushing the mbs area through midnight.

//dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling 5000 ft or less during the morning.

Prev discussion
Issued at 319 pm edt Tue apr 25 2017
discussion...

upper level PV filament exiting east of the central great lakes this
afternoon, taking morning light showers/sprinkles over the thumb
region with it, along with the clouds. Developing afternoon sunshine
has or will allow temperatures to climb to around 70 degrees across
most locations once again.

Active pattern/upper level energy over the rockies of north america,
leading to two distant mid level circulations around tomorrow, one
over minnesota, with second wave/shortwave trough coming out of the
southern plains, becoming absorbed by stronger northern stream
system, with the negative tilted trough axis lifting through
southeast michigan on Thursday.

Warming low/mid levels is the weather story tonight into tomorrow,
which should serve as a good cap, as average 850-700 mb temps rise
into the lower teens early Wednesday afternoon. 925 mb temps rising
between 19-21 c supports highs around 80 degrees as warm front
reaches at least saginaw bay. If warm front gets hung up over tri-
cities region, enhanced low level convergence/forcing could be
enough to overcome the weakening cap late in the day. If activity
does materialize by early evening, 1000-850 mb capes around 1000
j/kg with 0-6 km bulk shear up around 50 knots would support a
marginal risk of severe storms as narrow moisture plume (pw values
around 1.5 inches) reaches the doorstep of the CWA late in the day.

Even better 0-6 km bulk shear on Thursday, in the 60-70 knot range,
but mlcapes expected to reside mainly below 1000 j/kg as showers and
thunderstorms likely develop by early afternoon. Even so, with 50
knots at 850 mb, it will not take much to produce wind gusts up to
60 mph, and marginal risk of severe storms (last nights day 3
outlook) looks valid. If the front is even a bit slower, a better
risk of strong to severe storms can be expected. Even without
thunderstorms, should be a pretty good wind pop behind the front
late in the day, with 6 hr rise/fall pressure couplet around 15 mb,
with local probabilistic SREF weighted guidance indicating wind gusts
in the 35 to 40 mph range. Low level cold advection looks good, as
850 mb temps crash at or slightly below zero toward early evening
before leveling off Thursday night.

High pressure over the region on Friday will bring drier and cooler
conditions with highs in the 60s. Shower chances return to the
forecast late Friday as a warm frontal boundary becomes stationary
south of michigan. The weekend will feature a wet forecast as low
pressure developing over the southern plains on Saturday moves
northeastward towards the great lakes. The better chance for showers
on Saturday will remain south along the ohio border closer to the
stationary frontal boundary as highs remain in the mid 50s across
the saginaw valley and thumb to low 60s near the ohio border. As low
pressure approaches the region, the frontal boundary will lift
northward across lower michigan on Sunday with highs warming into
the 60s to near 70 while rain and thunderstorms remain likely
throughout the day into Sunday night. Cold frontal passage looks to
occur on Monday as low pressure slowly exits the great lakes region
keeping shower chances in the forecast. Following the frontal
passage, a cooler air mass filters into the region for early next
week with highs returning to the mid 50s to low 60s.

Marine...

a long duration of moderate southeasterly flow will exist through
Thursday with a gradually veering to the south by the end of that
time frame. This flow will exist within modest pressure gradient
between high pressure to the east and low pressure lifting into the
mid mississippi valley. Expect sustained wind of 15 to 20 knots over
lake huron.

While higher gusts will likely occur, rather stable low levels
within this warming southerly flow will limit the highest gusts to
around 25 knots on Wednesday and 25-30 knots on Thursday as the low
pressure and attending cold front encroach on the area. Winds will
turn southwesterly in the wake of this system from late Thursday into
Thursday night with scattered showers or storms also accompanying
the cold front.

Hydrology...

low pressure will track into northern lower michigan on Thursday and
drag a trailing cold front west to east from the region. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms can be expected with this front. While the
rainfall is not expected to be widespread, locally heavy downpours
may bring one quarter to one half an inch of rain to some locations.

With the basin average rainfall expected to remain low, there are no
concerns for flooding at this time.

Dtx watches/warnings/advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Bt
discussion... Sf/jd
marine... ... .Dg
hydrology... .Dg
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 1 mi42 min SSE 12 G 16 50°F 1007.3 hPa48°F
KP58 15 mi69 min SSE 9.9 G 18 53°F 1007.1 hPa50°F
PSCM4 30 mi60 min S 4.1 G 4.1 49°F 1008.5 hPa (+0.4)
45149 - Southern Lake Huron 37 mi60 min ESE 9.7 G 12 44°F 38°F1 ft1008 hPa (-0.1)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 49 mi54 min E 4.1 G 14 55°F 1007.8 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 51 mi80 min ENE 6 G 7 50°F 1007.8 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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G15
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G14
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G14
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G17
N12

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Hope, MI15 mi69 minSSE 10 G 18 mi53°F50°F89%1007.1 hPa
Bad Axe, Huron County Memorial Airport, MI18 mi63 minSE 610.00 miFair54°F50°F89%1007.4 hPa

Wind History from P58 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE13
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SE14SE14
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SE15SE13SE10SE12SE16SE12SE10E12SE10SE14
G19
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1 day agoN10NE10E12E11E10E8E8E9E8E8E8E9E7NE9NE6E7E5E6E7SE9SE14SE15SE15
G22
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2 days agoSW7SW5SW7SW6SW6SW7SW8
G14
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SW9
G16
W86
G16
N14
G20
NE11NE8NE7NE8N9N10N9N10N9N10N11NE11

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.