Sunrise 6:11 AM   Sunset 8:40 PM Moonrise 5:12 AM   Moonset 8:57 PM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  New

LHZ441 Port Austin To Harbor Beach Mi- 938 Am Edt Wed May 8 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening - .
Rest of today - West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Gusts to 25 knots. Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Tonight - North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Thursday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Thursday night - North winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
see lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.

LHZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 081738 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 138 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and breezy today.

- Much cooler on Thursday with rain expected south of M-59 and a chance north.

AVIATION

Breezy westerly flow with gusts of 25 to 30 knots is in place this afternoon across Southeast Michigan this afternoon as flattened ridge is suppressed to the Southeast United States. Surface high pressure is shown to build southward in response to differential heating and mesohigh forcing which will in turn cause a cold front to backdoor off Lake Huron and Lake St Clair this evening. Expect an abrupt wind shift with winds turning to the northeast around 01-02Z.
A deep upper level trough axis will then settle into portions of northern Lower Michigan Thursday. Increased midlevel deformation and frontogenesis is expected to result in a widespread coverage of rain showers after 15Z for all of Southeast Michigan.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low in crosswind thresholds being exceeded this afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

DISCUSSION...

Massive/West-East elongated upper level low/trough centered over the Dakotas early this morning. In fact, 00z Bismark raob indicated a 500 mb height of 537 DAM, which looks like it set the daily min record. As this upper level low weakens today, a big pattern shift will occur for us, as the warm and deep southwest-west flow in place transitions to predominately northwest flow to end the work week into the weekend.

Weak surface wind fields early this morning, coupled with last evening's rainfall, and dew pts in the 50s has lead to a little light fog in spots. Still looks very shallow and should not have a much of impact on max temperatures. Increasing westerly flow today with a north-south gradient in place, as 850 mb temps this afternoon look to be in the mid/upper single number north of I-69, with lower teens toward the southern Michigan border. The I-94 corridor will likely mix to 725 mb, where 2-3 C is forecasted, supportive of highs around 80 degrees/lower 80s, otherwise 70s should work for much of the rest of the CWA Huron county looks to have more clouds, cooler influence from Saginaw Bay and perhaps a stray shower to keep temps down in the upper 60s/near 70. With the deeper boundary layer mixing expected, inherited wind gusts of 25-30 knots also appears fine.

Much cooler air for the entire CWA arrives on Thursday as positive tilted trough axis drops south from Eastern Canada, and low level winds out of the northeast increase off Lake Huron. Highs predominately in the 55-60 degree range expected. It does appear the upper level wave coming out of the Midwest will subsequently be deflected farther south, through the Ohio Valley.
850-700 mb Theta-E ridge axis looks to be straddled along or just south of the southern Michigan border, with moisture quickly diminishing as one heads north, calling into question the rain showers developing for northern areas of the CWA (see 00z regional GEM, NAM, ICON, and UKMET especially). Planning on sharping up the south-north pop gradient significantly.

Dry Friday as shortwave ridging builds over the Central Great Lakes, but nthe ext upper level wave/trough embedded within the northwest flow arrives by Saturday morning, supportive of a chance of showers despite limited moisture available, and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm as the showalter index lowers toward zero and several hundreds of MUcape indicated.

MARINE...

Low pressure tracks near the Straits this morning setting up modest (~15-20kt) westerly flow across the region in its wake. A secondary low develops over the Ohio Valley tonight resulting in local winds shifting to out of the northeast. With a marginally cooler airmass drawn south, peak wind gusts Thursday over the central portion of Lake Huron reach 20-25kts with near 30kts possible over the Saginaw Bay due to funneling down the bay. Small craft advisories may be needed around the Thumb nearshore waters daytime Thursday as waves increase given the wind direction. System vacates by Thursday night bringing lighter winds and ending further shower chances.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ421-422- 441>443.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Detroit, MI,