Saturday, July22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Harbor Beach, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:10AMSunset 9:02PM Saturday July 22, 2017 10:48 PM EDT (02:48 UTC) Moonrise 4:18AMMoonset 7:27PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ441 Port Austin To Harbor Beach Mi- 1002 Pm Edt Sat Jul 22 2017
Rest of tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Mostly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Sunday..East winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms late in the morning. Light showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast 15 to 20 knots early in the morning. Mostly cloudy. Light showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms early in the evening...then a chance of light showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the late evening and overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet early in the morning. Waves occasionally around 7 feet. A small craft advisory may be needed.
Monday..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of light showers early in the morning...then partly cloudy in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ441 Expires:201707230900;;677496 FZUS53 KDTX 230203 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1002 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ441-230900-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Harbor Beach, MI
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location: 43.84, -82.65     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 222344
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
744 pm edt Sat jul 22 2017

Aviation
Very moist level environment firmly entrenched across the southeast
michigan airspace heading into tonight. Evening cloud trends
suggest some longevity to the existing higher based cloud cover
associated with an exiting weak low pressure system. North of this
cloud deck , extensive low stratus already in place under northeast
flow, with the southern extent impacting the mbs corridor. Further
southward expansion is expected over the course of the night,
augmented by some weak moisture flux off the lakes under light
east northeast flow. This will translate into the development of low
stratus and or fog, favoring restrictions down into ifr. Potential
does exist for one or more locations to drop into lifr toward
daybreak, but confidence remains low.

For dtw... A combination of low stratus and fog expected to emerge
during the early-mid morning period as winds turn light
northeasterly. Low potential for conditions to dip into lifr,
particularly if dense fog develops.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* low in thunderstorms Sunday afternoon.

* high in ceilings at or below 5000 feet this afternoon through
Sunday morning.

* low for vsby at or below 1 4 mile Sunday morning.

Prev discussion
Issued at 314 pm edt Sat jul 22 2017
discussion...

humid moist airmass down low with low level convergence leading to
areas of low clouds and drizzle up across north half of the cwa.

Meanwhile, toward the south, warm and dry mid levels in place, with
rap13 analysis indicating 500 mb temps around -5 c and 700 mb temps
around 11 c. Still, mlcapes pushing at or just above 1000 j kg this
afternoon potentially yielding a thunderstorm capable of producing
heavy rain before weak wave of low pressure slides east by sunset,
allowing dew pts to slip under 70 degrees with little if any
shower thunderstorm activity expected this evening tonight. With mid
clouds exiting, enough surface near surface moisture to support
areas of fog with calm winds.

Upper level wave low over southern manitoba this afternoon swinging
southeast through lake superior u.P. Tonight and through the straits
tomorrow. One surface low is currently over west central
illinois northern missouri and will be tracking eastward, sliding
south of the michigan border early tomorrow morning, with more of an
inverted trough extending northwest through lower michigan before
low coming out of western great lakes takes over and drops southeast
into eastern great lakes Sunday night. With moisture quality
concerns and mid level dry slot in place, especially over far
southern lower michigan expected to limit coverage of activity. 12z
nam attempts to advect back dew pts around 70 degrees, yielding
capes in the 1500-2000 j kg range, which would be sufficient for
isolated severe storms with 0-6 km bulk shear in excess of 30 knots.

However, moisture 850-700 mb theta-e axis is very narrow, and mid
level lapse rates are still nothing special, around 6.5 c km from
700-500 mb. Mid level lapse rates then drop off by early evening as
actual cold front swings through, and it looks like we will be hard
pressed to see more than scattered coverage of activity, especially
if we hold onto a lot of cloud cover through the day and maxes come
up short of the projected highs in the mid 80s.

Surge of low level cold advection, helped out by northeast push off
lake huron Sunday night, setting us up for cooler Monday with highs
in the 70s.

High pressure will keep dry and pleasant conditions in place on
Tuesday with highs near 80. An upper level low tracking east through
southern canada will bring the next chance for active weather as a
cold front pushes through the region during the midweek period.

Southwesterly flow ahead of the cold front will bring warmer, more
humid conditions across the region on Wednesday with highs in the mid
to upper 80s. Model guidance has trended slightly slower for the
frontal passage keeping the chance for thunderstorms in the forecast
for Wednesday night and Thursday. High pressure then builds back into
the region late next week as an amplifying upper level trough over
the northeast brings a return to dry, pleasant conditions and near
average temperatures.

Marine...

near stationary low pressure across southern and central lower
michigan tonight and Sunday combined with strengthening high
pressure over james bay will support an increasing easterly gradient
across lake huron this afternoon into Sunday morning. During the day
Sunday, winds will veer toward the southeast while the stronger
winds become focused across the northern third of lake huron. This
will result from deepening surface low pressure across lower
michigan. Winds gusts across far northern lake huron may actually
top 20 knots on Sunday. This low pressure system will also provide a
chance for thunderstorms on Sunday to the entire region. The low
will depart to the eastern great lakes on Monday. Northeasterly
winds are expected to develop on the back side of this low Sunday
night into Monday. Winds may become gusty at times across lake
huron, especially saginaw bay where hazardous small craft conditions
may develop.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Mr
discussion... Sf jd
marine... ... .Sc
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 1 mi48 min E 9.9 G 13 70°F 1009.2 hPa (+1.1)63°F
KP58 15 mi57 min NE 11 70°F 1008.6 hPa65°F
PSCM4 30 mi48 min ENE 8.9 G 12 69°F 1009.5 hPa (+1.0)
45008 - S HURON 43NM East of Oscoda, MI 33 mi58 min NNE 9.7 G 12 68°F 68°F1 ft1009.8 hPa (+0.3)
45149 - Southern Lake Huron 37 mi48 min ESE 12 G 16 70°F 71°F1008.6 hPa (+0.6)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 49 mi68 min ENE 11 G 14 69°F 1010.8 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 51 mi68 min NNE 2.9 G 7 67°F 1010.2 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Hope, MI15 mi57 minNE 11 mi70°F64°F84%1008.6 hPa
Huron County Memorial Airport, MI18 mi52 minENE 310.00 miOvercast67°F64°F92%1010.2 hPa

Wind History from P58 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmE7SE6SE5SE6S33CalmS6SW3W4W4SW4NE3E14E13E13E12E14E12NE13E15E11NE11
1 day agoSW4CalmW4W4W33CalmCalmNW3W3NW5NW4CalmCalmCalmE3E7E9SE9SE8SE8SE6SE4SE3
2 days agoS6Calm5S45S6SE5SE5S666W11
G17
W11
G18
NW10NE3E3E6E11E10E12SE11SE5S33

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.