Wednesday, January17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Harbor Beach, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:54AMSunset 5:25PM Wednesday January 17, 2018 4:03 AM EST (09:03 UTC) Moonrise 8:16AMMoonset 6:06PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ441 Port Austin To Harbor Beach Mi- 242 Am Est Wed Jan 17 2018
.gale warning in effect from 10 am est this morning through late tonight...
Today..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 30 knots with gusts to 35 knot gales. Partly cloudy becoming mostly cloudy early in the afternoon becoming partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less building to 3 to 5 feet in the afternoon. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds to 30 knots becoming west 20 to 25 knots early in the morning. Gusts to 35 knot gales. Partly cloudy. Waves 5 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Thursday..West winds 20 to 25 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Partly cloudy until late afternoon becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 8 feet. Wave heights are for ice free areas. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ441 Expires:201801172200;;571406 FZUS53 KDTX 170742 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 242 AM EST Wed Jan 17 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ441-172200-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Harbor Beach, MI
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location: 43.84, -82.65     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 170740
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
240 am est Wed jan 17 2018

Discussion
Near term today through tonight
as of 240 am est... Upper-level trough continues to open up and
become more progressive with time as it continues its exit east of
the region early this morning. Increasing subsidence has allowed for
a few patches of clearing in the cloud cover, with temperatures
plummeting into the lower single digits to a few degrees below zero
in these areas due to the fresh snowpack. Where clouds have lingered
through the night, temperatures have been a few degrees warmer
solidly in the single digits. Would not be surprised if low
temperatures bottom out near or slightly below zero for most areas
around daybreak, so will go on the colder side of guidance.

Behind the departing trough, upper-level heights will continue to
build through today and into tonight as surface high pressure ridges
in from the southwest. This pattern will result in mainly dry
conditions through the near term period. The exception will be
sporadic brief flurries as a release of lake moisture downstream of
lake michigan plagues the region with mostly cloudy stratus stratocu
throughout the day. The low-level flow will back to the
west southwest and become increasingly gusty as the day progresses
due to a tightening pressure gradient between the high to the south
and low pressure tracking up near hudson's bay. Wind gusts of 20-30
mph will be common especially during the afternoon and evening, with
occasional gusts of 30-40 mph in the saginaw valley and northern
thumb regions. High temperatures will reach into the mid 20s. With
the gusty winds in place, it will feel much colder with wind chills
in the single digits.

Drier air will filter in tonight allowing for gradually clearing
skies. Continued gusty winds will limit low temperatures tonight,
with lows only falling into the mid and upper teens with a few
readings near 20.

Short term Thursday through Friday night
quiet and dry weather continues through the short term period with
dry northwest flow aloft and flat upper-level ridging. Lake
aggregate moisture in the low-levels will continue to lead to
periods of mostly cloudy skies, especially north of the detroit
metro. Surface high pressure settling across the southeast states
will result in southwesterly breezy return flow setting up across
the region, advecting in a moderating airmass with time as
temperatures rise into the mid and upper 30s. Northern stream
shortwave energy will dive southeast across the northern great lakes
Thursday into Thursday night with little fanfare as this system will
be quite moisture-starved.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
long range guidance continues to be in fairly good agreement with an
increasingly unsettled weather pattern taking shape for the weekend
and into early next week. Vigorous pacific energy moving into the
intermountain west will carve out a deepening longwave trough that
will induce lee cyclogenesis over the central plains Friday into
Saturday. This low pressure system will deepen as it tracks
northeastward into the great lakes region, with good consensus that
the low will track northwest of southeast michigan. This track will
result in the region being placed in the warm sector ahead of the
system, which will feature southwesterly flow advecting in milder
and more moist air as temperatures rise into the 40s. A tightening
pressure gradient between the approaching low and lingering high
pressure anchored over the southeast CONUS will also lead to a
period of gusty winds as well.

There remains some timing differences in the long range guidance as
to the beginning of increasing rain chances, so will take a
consensus blend which favors increasing chances for drizzle light
rain showers late Saturday night and into Sunday, with more steady
rain Sunday night and into Monday. Timing will be refined as we get
closer to the event, but the weekend and into early next week will
generally feature cloudy, mild, but damp conditions.

Marine
The gale warning will continue for Wednesday and Wednesday evening
as strong and unstable southwest flow develops within strengthening
pressure gradient between arctic high pressure to the south and low
pressure traversing the southern shores of hudson bay. Gusts to at
least marginal gales are probable over a good portion of lake huron,
including saginaw bay and the northern nearshore waters. Gusts to 40
knot gales are anticipated over the central open waters. Episodes of
fresh to strong southwest flow will be common for the remainder of
the week, but gust potential will diminish due to an increasingly
warm stable fetch.

Prev discussion
Issued at 1157 pm est Tue jan 16 2018
aviation...

main vorticity center is now exiting southeastern michigan this
evening. Dry air will work in the backside of the departing low
pressure trough which will result in the erosion of stratocumulus.

Will continue to favor a more pessimistic forecast through this
morning as cloud from the remnant lake michigan plume is forecasted
to work eastward across lower michigan. Main forecast item for
Wednesday will be developing gradient winds, gusty west winds 15 to
25 knots.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for cig AOB 5kft tonight.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Gale warning from 10 am this morning to 4 am est Thursday for
lhz363-441-462.

Gale warning from 10 am this morning to 10 pm est this evening for
lhz362-421.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Discussion... Irl
marine... ... .Dg
aviation... ..Cb
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 1 mi46 min WSW 7 G 8.9 6°F 1028.8 hPa3°F
KP58 15 mi73 min WSW 4.1 5°F 1031.2 hPa1°F
PSCM4 30 mi64 min W 6 G 8 5°F 1030.1 hPa (+0.6)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 49 mi63 min SW 12 G 13 6°F 1029.8 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 51 mi84 min WNW 5.1 G 6 1°F 1029.1 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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W6
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W6
NW2
NE6
N18
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G14
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G12
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S15
G21
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G19
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G27
SE24
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G27
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G25
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G23
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G24
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SE17
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G18
SE15
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G17
SE15
S6
G12
SW5
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G7
W3
G6
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W3
G7
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SW7
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SW6
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G9
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SW6
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G13
SW11
G14
S10
G14
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G15
S7
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G14
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G12
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G16
S12
G16
S10
G16
S10
G15
S9
G14
S12
G15
SE19
G23
SE20

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Hope, MI15 mi73 minWSW 4 mi5°F1°F83%1031.2 hPa
Huron County Memorial Airport, MI18 mi69 minN 010.00 miFair-7°F-10°F82%1029.8 hPa

Wind History from P58 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW3W3W4SW5SW6SW6W5NW4CalmN15N14N9
G19
N10
G19
N8NW10NW8NW10NW8W6W6W4W4SW4SW4
1 day agoS8S6S11
G17
SE10
G21
SE13SE15
G22
SE16
G20
SE16
G23
SE15SE13SE11SE10SE9SE9SE9SE163CalmCalmW3W4W4W3W5
2 days agoSW5SW6SW5SW7SW6454655S8S7S5S4S8
G14
S6S6
G14
S7S8S7S8
G15
S7S6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.