Friday, March24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Harbor Beach, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:22AMSunset 7:48PM Friday March 24, 2017 9:57 PM EDT (01:57 UTC) Moonrise 4:34AMMoonset 3:05PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LHZ441 501 pm est Fri feb 24 2017 a marine weather statement has been issued for the following areas... Inner and outer saginaw bay... NEarshore and open waters from port austin to harbor beach mi... At 459 pm est...doppler radar indicated a strong Thunderstorm... Capable of producing winds to up 25 knots. This Thunderstorm was located near bay city liberty harbor...moving northeast at 45 knots. Locations impacted include... Bay city liberty harbor...gravelly shoals...caseville...the mouth of the saginaw river...bay port...sebewaing...quanicassee...linwood and port austin. Additional scattered Thunderstorms...some of which may produce small hail and gusty winds...will cross the area over the next hour or two as well. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds up to 25 knots...locally higher waves...and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until this storm passes. && lat...lon 4391 8395 4392 8389 4399 8384 4399 8368 4402 8369 4405 8366 4405 8358 4419 8356 4417 8225 4410 8224 4391 8274 4398 8279 4404 8291 4397 8306 4395 8324 4369 8346 4367 8354 4355 8367 4365 8394
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LHZ441 Expires:201702242330;;592516 FZUS73 KDTX 242201 MWSDTX MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 501 PM EST FRI FEB 24 2017 LHZ421-422-441-462-242330-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Harbor Beach, MI
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location: 43.84, -82.65     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 242259
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
659 pm edt Fri mar 24 2017

Aviation
Shallow front will settle south through area this evening. Modest
low level instability within warm sector is helping to fire some
convection along this boundary and hires models suggest this area of
shras and perhaps a tsra will zipper up front into area from kptk
south. CIGS will generally remain MVFR/lowerVFR with this activity.

Broader area of rain/dz/fog will expand northwest to southeast
across the area overnight as moisture continues to overrun the
frontal boundary and large scale forcing increases as low pressure
wobbles into the mid mississippi valley. These conditions more or
less persist through Saturday (albeit with slight improvement in the
afternoon) as the low only make very slow progresses into the great
lakes. Ifr/lifr conditions will prevail overnight into Saturday.

For dtw... Scattered showers should develop along front early in the
forecast with an outside chance of a tsra. This activity will fester
this evening and then be replaced by a broader area of -ra/br during
the overnight hours as the front settles south of the terminal. Cigs
should remain MVFR/lowerVFR much of the evening and then steadily
lower to the cusp of lifr/ifr late tonight into Saturday morning.

Vsbys will follow suite as well.

//dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for cigs AOB 5000 ft this forecast.

* low confidence in cigs/vsby AOB 200 ft or 1/4sm late tonight into
early Saturday morning.

* low risk of a thunderstorm this evening.

Prev discussion
Issued at 353 pm edt Fri mar 24 2017
discussion...

upper low centered over northern texas and oklahoma will slowly
track east through the plains tonight and Saturday, before beginning
to lift northward towards the great lakes. The frontal boundary
currently draped over central lower michigan will sink slowly
southward tonight as high pressure builds through ontario and
quebec. Main area of precipitation now over northern michigan and
wisconsin will settle southward as well, filling in some as the
convergence along the front tightens in response to right entrance
region forcing from a jet streak passing through the northern great
lakes and eastern canada. The fgen forcing should provide a fairly
steady rainfall along elevated portions of the frontal boundary
tonight into Saturday, before the jet streak slides east. Main area
of rainfall will sink into the northern portion of the forecast area
this evening and tonight. Another area of rainfall is looking to
develop this evening further south, however, and should affect the
detroit area.

Forecast models, including all higher-res runs, continue to develop
another area of showers ahead of the surface front this evening, as
it reaches roughly near the m-59 corridor southward. The increase in
activity looks to be in response to low-level convergence increasing
as the front encounters strong southerly flow, and as a modest theta-
e surge makes its way up into michigan from illinois/indiana.

Stability indices continue to hint that thunder may be a possibility,
but forecast soundings show enough of a cap to justify leaving the
mention of thunder out. Rain should then fill in over all of
southeast michigan by early Saturday morning as the elevated portion
of the front slides solidly over the area. High coverage/more steady
rain should continue through about mid-day before it likely tapers
to showers as upper jet support is lost. Showers will then continue
through Saturday night and Sunday as the upper low lifts northward
and pushes the front back northward into the area. Activity on
Sunday should be more convective in nature, with a few thunderstorms
even possible, as the upper low and associated cold pool work
across.

Clearing and mixing into very warm air aloft has pushed temperatures
into the upper 60s to low 70s this afternoon on the south side of
the warm front. Temperatures tonight will show wide variation as the
front slowly slides through the area, dropping into the mid 30s for
the northern portion of the area and the upper 40s near the ohio
border. Not much temperature recovery is expected during the day
tomorrow as southeast michigan remains on the north side of the
surface front, under clouds and rain, and we see stiff east to
northeast winds off the colder lake waters (especially lake huron).

A slight chance for spotty showers will exist throughout Monday as
southwest winds continue to advect warm, moist air into the region.

Pop values will steadily increase Monday night into Tuesday morning
as low pressure pushes from missouri, into the ohio valley. The
chance for rain will gradually diminish throughout the day on
Tuesday as high pressure moves in from the northern central plains
into the great lakes region late Tuesday into Thursday morning,
keeping conditions relatively dry through that period.

The next chance for precipitation will return Thursday into Friday,
as the gem and ECMWF 12z suites pick up on low pressure moving from
texas/oklahoma into michigan. High uncertainty still exists
regarding both the timing, track, and strength of the potential low.

For comparison, the GFS long-range run keeps the system well to the
south of michigan, centering it across kentucky Friday night and
into west virginia by Saturday morning. This feature will be
something to keep an eye on as we approach next week.

Marine...

frontal boundary over central lake huron his afternoon will sink
south tonight as high pressure builds into ontario, leading to
northeast winds of 15 to 25 knots over lake huron tomorrow with
gusts briefly up to 30 knots over the mid section of the lake early
tomorrow morning. This will lead to waves in excess of 4 feet
impacting the nearshore waters over the northern thumb region during
the day, and small craft advisories have been issued. Winds will
become a bit more east-southeast for the second half of the weekend
as low pressure tracks through the western ohio valley and into
lower michigan Sunday night. The weak low then looks to slowly pass
through lake huron on Monday, with generally light winds right into
Tuesday, but from the north behind the low.

Hydrology...

periods of showers tonight and right through the weekend as a
frontal boundary meanders over southern lower michigan. Rainfall
totals are expected to approach 1 inch across much of the area, but
flooding is not expected due to the long duration and intermittent
nature of the rainfall. Runoff from the rainfall will increase flow
rates and water levels in local streams and rivers.

Dtx watches/warnings/advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory from 6 am to 8 pm edt Saturday for lhz422.

Small craft advisory from 6 am Saturday to 4 am edt Sunday for
lhz421-441.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Dg
discussion... Hlo/am
marine... ... .Sf
hydrology... .Sf
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 1 mi40 min N 9.9 G 13 35°F 1018.8 hPa
KP58 15 mi67 min N 4.1 35°F 1020.1 hPa34°F
PSCM4 30 mi58 min N 15 G 18 1018.3 hPa (+2.7)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 49 mi57 min NNE 16 G 22 35°F 1019.3 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 51 mi78 min NE 6 G 12 36°F 1019.6 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Hope, MI15 mi67 minN 4 mi35°F34°F96%1020.1 hPa
Bad Axe, Huron County Memorial Airport, MI18 mi62 minNNE 12 G 175.00 miFog/Mist36°F33°F91%1019.3 hPa

Wind History from P58 (wind in knots)
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S6SE9S9S7CalmE4SE4SE6SE7SE5E7E6E5CalmNW5NW5N4N13N7N5N4
1 day agoS4S3S5S3S3CalmCalmSE3S3CalmCalmS35S5S8
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2 days agoNW21
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N10N7N7N7N6NE4NE5CalmE4SE3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.