Thursday, May23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Harbor Beach, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:57AMSunset 8:55PM Thursday May 23, 2019 1:35 PM EDT (17:35 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 8:59AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ441 Port Austin To Harbor Beach Mi- 947 Am Edt Thu May 23 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Rest of today..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 25 knots in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy with chance of showers and Thunderstorms late this morning, then mostly Sunny in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Partly cloudy in the morning becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ441 Expires:201905232130;;329659 FZUS53 KDTX 231347 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 947 AM EDT Thu May 23 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ441-232130-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Harbor Beach, MI
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location: 43.84, -82.65     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 231707
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
107 pm edt Thu may 23 2019

Aviation
Influx of dry air associated with building ridge of high pressure
into the central great lakes will allow for any eroding stratocu to
become skc conditions the remainder of the afternoon and into this
evening. A few passing high clouds will be possible overnight, with
gradually increasing coverage of high clouds towards the end of the
period spilling eastward from plains convection. Main concern this
taf period will be gusty SW W winds through 00z, with peak gusts
topping out 30-35 knots at times. Winds ease after sunset and will
become light and variable by 12z Friday.

For dtw... Gusty winds 260-270 degree direction will pose increased
concern for crosswind thresholds. Peak gusts should remain below 35
knots, but obs upstream support potential for an isolated gust or
two to reach 35-37 knots. Gusts greatly diminish towards 03z.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* moderate potential to reach crosswind thresholds through 00z.

Prev discussion
Issued at 1004 am edt Thu may 23 2019
update...

elongated west-east aligned upper wave tracking through lake
superior this morning, with the associated trough axis crossing lower
michigan this afternoon, leading to good post frontal subsidence and
drying.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms early this morning have exited
east, as the 850 mb theta-e ridge moisture axis clears southeast
michigan. Still a low chance a few showers could go up (mainly far
eastern areas) through early afternoon hours before mid level dry
slot fully overspreads southeast michigan through the day, with
increasing sunshine and increased boundary layer depths leading to
strong westerly winds this afternoon. Based off current temps, did
bump up maxes about 2 degrees, and high confidence, supported by
local probabilistic guidance and forecasted soundings that wind gusts
will get into the 35-40 mph range, with isolated 45 mph gusts not
totally out of the question across the north half of the CWA where
there is better low level cold advection.

Prev discussion...

issued at 344 am edt Thu may 23 2019
discussion...

the day will start off with showers and thunderstorms moving in as a
cold front currently approaching lake michigan sweeps through and
exits the area around noon. Moisture and instability will advect into
the area ahead of the front on a 40 to 50 kt low level jet.

Instability not that great with k indices reaching the mid 30s with
boundary layer CAPE values from a few hundreds in the thumb to about
500 joules across the southeast corner. It will be there where any
more robust storms would likely occur and possibly tap into the low
level jet leading to decent wind gusts as SPC has ran marginal risk
for severe through far eastern monroe county. After passage, clouds
will decrease as high pressure builds in. Plenty of sunshine this
afternoon will allow temps to warm well into the 70s. Tight gradient
will produce west winds around 20 mph and with deep mixing gusts to
around 30 mph.

Winds will quickly decrease tonight after sunset and as surface high
pressure slides through. Clear skies and cooler airmass will lead
to lows in the 40s to low 50s south.

Return flow around departing high pressure Friday will start lifting
a warm front back north brining an increase in clouds during the day
keeping highs in the 60s to low 70s. Showers and thunderstorms will
spread into the area Friday night as the warm front advances north.

Better push of warm air behind this front will drive highs Saturday
well into the 70s and even around 80 in the southeast. However,
plenty of cloud cover and showers and thunderstorms will be around as
another cold front settles southeast through the area in the
afternoon.

Saturday night through memorial day, large high pressure will settle
over the northern great lakes. This should bring dry and seasonal
temperatures, at least across the saginaw valley and thumb. Across
the southern forecast area will depend on how far south the cold
front from Saturday makes it before stalling. Models range from
southern indiana ohio to northern indiana ohio with a mid level
disturbances in the zonal flow passing through Sunday. The further
south the front stalls the more sunshine and less chance for showers
Sunday and Monday across the southern cwa. Either way, highs will
still be in the 70s. For next week, active pattern of late looks to
still hold with multiple chances for showers.

Marine...

southerly winds will veer to southwest and west this afternoon as
strong low-level winds and diurnal mixing act to bring breezy
conditions to the marine areas. Small craft advisories will remain
in effect as gusts into the 25 to 30 knot range can be expected.

Waves will be muted in the nearshore waters with the offshore flow
building to only 2 to 4 feet during the afternoon.

Showers and thunderstorms tied to the cold front are also expected
early this morning. A secondary frontal boundary will settle south
through the area later today and bring modest northwest flow this
evening into the overnight. High pressure will then expand across
the great lakes late tonight into Friday. This will relax wind
speeds for a day or so before southwesterly flow increase again on
Saturday in advance of the next approaching cold front.

Hydrology...

scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will pass through
southeast michigan this morning and exit to the east early this
afternoon as a cold front moves through. Basin average rainfall is
expected to average less than a quarter of an inch.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lhz421-422-
441>443.

Lake st clair... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lcz460.

Michigan waters of lake erie... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lez444.

Aviation... ..Irl
update... ... .Sf
discussion... Drc
marine... ... .Dg
hydrology... .Dg
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 1 mi47 min WSW 18 G 31 72°F 51°F1009.7 hPa55°F
KP58 15 mi44 min W 14 G 28 74°F 1008.3 hPa54°F
PSCM4 30 mi35 min W 17 G 22 1028.4 hPa (-0.4)
45008 - S HURON 43NM East of Oscoda, MI 33 mi35 min SW 16 G 18 50°F 37°F1008.9 hPa50°F
45149 - Southern Lake Huron 37 mi95 min S 12 G 14 48°F 39°F1 ft1010.5 hPa (-1.0)
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 51 mi55 min W 14 G 22 69°F 1009.5 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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W9
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N13
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G11

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Hope, MI15 mi44 minW 14 G 28 mi74°F54°F50%1008.3 hPa
Huron County Memorial Airport, MI18 mi40 minW 19 G 3110.00 miMostly Cloudy and Breezy72°F53°F52%1010.2 hPa

Wind History from P58 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE23S5SE8SE10
G20
SE14SE9SE7SE6SE7S7S65SW9
G15
SW7SW56Calm5S5S6SW11
G16
SW12
G26
W14
G23
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1 day ago3N3N4N3CalmNE4CalmCalmCalmCalmE5E7E8SE10E12SE13SE9SE9E17SE14SE14SE19
G24
SE16
G24
SE21
2 days agoN5N6NW9NW8NW9NW6W5W3N4W3W5W5W7W7NW5W5W4W3NW6NW5NW6NW5NW4N4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.