Sunrise 6:15 AM   Sunset 8:37 PM Moonrise 3:56 AM   Moonset 4:53 PM

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LHZ441 Port Austin To Harbor Beach Mi- 343 Pm Edt Sun May 5 2024
Tonight - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots this evening, then becoming north 10 to 15 knots after midnight diminishing to 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Monday - North winds 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.Monday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less. Tuesday - East winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Mostly Sunny in the morning becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
see lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.

LHZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 051909 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 309 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly sunny and mild Monday.

- Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening.

- Marginal risk of strong to severe storms south of I-94 Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Skies will continue to clear from northwest to southeast across the area this afternoon into early this evening as high pressure begins to build into the area in the wake of an exiting cold front. Any lingering isolated showers or patchy drizzle will dissipate during the late afternoon/early evening. Clear skies and light winds during the overnight will promote decent cooling with lows well into the 40s in most locations. This high pressure will remain in place Monday with skies ranging from mostly sunny north to partly sunny south as a weak mid level disturbance associated with today's convection well to the south brushes the area. Highs should reach the upper 60s to around 70.

During this time frame, a much stronger upper level system will emerge over the northern/central plains and lead to rapid surface cyclogenesis over the western Dakotas with a cold front pivoting quickly around the base of this low through the plains. A notable severe weather outbreak is expected along this boundary over the central plains. This front occludes as it then works east and northeast into SE MI by late in the day Tuesday.

While a minor axis of instability does progress into/near the region along this front, overall conditions still seem minimally supportive for any notable strong/severe thunderstorms. (Even NAM has higher CAPE environment subdued well south of the area over the Tennessee Valley). That said, a marginal risk of severe weather has been posted for the southern part of the forecast area as the northern fringe of region of strongest shear and at least modest instability does encroach on the Michigan and Ohio state line. So, perhaps a strong storm or two will be possible on southern edge of what will be a general area of showers/rumbles of thunder as the front arcs northeast through the area.

Additional jet energy will race off the Pacific ocean around the base of the occluded upper low over the northern plains. This will provide another active weather day on Wednesday with showers and a few thunderstorms. Once again, it appears the bulk of the severe weather potential will remain south of the region on Wednesday with just shower chances increasing from late in the day into Wednesday night. Shower/isolated thunder chances actually persist into the day Thursday as a northern stream shortwave pivots into the Great Lakes from Canada.

This northern stream shortwave is the first of several which will usher in a upper level pattern change that will bring cooler weather to the region from late this week into next weekend as upper level troughing becomes prevalent. So, the upper 60s to mid 70s common on Tuesday and Wednesday will be replace by upper 50s to mid 60s.
Isolated to scattered showers will dot the area within this overall unsettled pattern as well. Low temperatures will approach 40 in some locations next weekend with some 30s not out of the question.

MARINE

A weak cold front will finish pushing through the region this afternoon. High pressure then centers itself over the region tonight through Monday night which will result in winds generally under 15 knots with low wave heights. Next chance of showers and thunderstorms comes Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night as a warm front gets pulled up through the Great Lakes. After a possible lull on Wednesday, a low pressure system will then target the area on Thursday bringing another chance for showers and thunderstorms.
At this time winds and waves are likely to remain below marine headline criteria.

HYDROLOGY

Showers and thunderstorms will move into the area along a warm front Tuesday afternoon and persist into the evening. While a few of the thunderstorms will produce locally heavy downpours, average rainfall will remain below half an inch and in many cases well below that threshold. No major flood concerns are expected at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 124 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

AVIATION...

Weak secondary cold front slowly sagging south through the TAF corridor this afternoon maintaining MVFR cloud cover as well as areas of drizzle. While clearing has already occurred over mbS, satellite trends show lower cloud gradient has stubbornly held north of FNT thus far. Based on these trends and forecast soundings, have gone a bit more pessimistic on lifting/clearing timing for all TAF sites (save for mbS) pushing it back to evening (~21-00Z). High pressure becomes fully established over the region tonight setting up lighter (10kt or less) flow as well as limiting any redevelopment of lower cloud, once clearing occurs.

For DTW/D21 Convection... Low level moisture has held more stubbornly even with drier air drawn into the area. Pushed lifting/clearing timing to late evening-early tonight (~00-05Z)
though this still carries a fair degree of uncertainty.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceiling 5000 feet or less through this evening, turning low tonight (between ~03-06Z).



DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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