Wednesday, November14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Harbor Beach, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:20AMSunset 5:08PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 11:04 AM EST (16:04 UTC) Moonrise 1:13PMMoonset 11:08PM Illumination 40% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ441 Port Austin To Harbor Beach Mi- 944 Am Est Wed Nov 14 2018
Rest of today..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy late in the morning then clearing. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet late in the afternoon.
Tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Light showers likely in the evening. Light snow showers likely until early morning, then a chance of light snow showers early in the morning. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet after midnight. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ441 Expires:201811142215;;294123 FZUS53 KDTX 141444 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 944 AM EST Wed Nov 14 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ441-142215-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Harbor Beach, MI
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location: 43.84, -82.65     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 141049
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
549 am est Wed nov 14 2018

Aviation
Remnant lake clouds, based between 3500 and 4000 ft, around fnt and
mbs will slowly retreat during the early morning hours as high
pressure expands into lower mi. This will lead to a weakening of the
flow as it backs toward the north, which combined with the extremely
dry air in place will sustain the ongoing clearing trend. The high
pressure will also support light and variable days through the day.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* none.

Prev discussion
Issued at 350 am est Wed nov 14 2018
discussion...

quiet weather expected today as a high pressure lifts through the
great lakes. Low level winds will begin veering from w-nw towards
the e-se as this high pressure moves off to the northeast throughout
the day. This will gradually bring an end to the lake effect regime
off of lake michigan with dry air already decreasing cloud cover
across southeast michigan early this morning. Even though there will
be more Sun today, the cold start to this morning with temperatures
around 20 degrees should only allow a thermal recovery into the
low mid 30s. Lows tonight will drop down in the 20s.

On Thursday, michigan will be placed in a zone between a closed low
lifting out of the lower mississippi valley and an approaching
northern stream shortwave across central canada. The low level
southerly flow ahead of the low approaching from the south will help
push some of the colder air out of the region as it moves into the
tn and oh valley. The leading edge of moisture wrapping around the
low with the deformation fgen band will push northward and reach the
michigan state line by around noon. Temperatures will be above
freezing in the mid upper 30s as precipitation moves into lower
michigan during the early afternoon. Soundings suggest a period of
rain or a rain snow mix with wet bulb cooling occurring.

Precipitation has a better opportunity to transition over to snow as
temperatures cool further after sunset. Potential also exists under
southeasterly flow that some locations could maintain warmer lower
level profiles, which would limit snow potential. Will keep periods
of rain snow mix for most of the day period and a better chance for
snow after sunset. Given the uncertainty still with this event,
snowfall of up to an inch or less looks reasonable at the moment.

The southern stream system will push east of the forecast area by
Friday morning as the northern stream shortwave crosses through
ontario. Bulk of the heaviest precipitation should stay north of our
cwa as height rises move in from the south. Wind direction on Friday
will bring the return of the lake effect regime with more clouds and
scattered light snow showers for areas along and north of i-69.

Below normal temperatures will continue through the weekend with
occasional chances for snow given the longwave trough pattern that
persists into the long term.

Marine...

there will be a decrease in the northwest winds and the waves today
as high pressure expands into the region from the west. This high
will drift east of the area tonight, supporting a backing of the
wind to the south-southwest by Thursday morning. After a brief
uptick in the wind speeds overnight into thurs morning, speeds will
again decrease thurs afternoon as weakening low pressure lifts into
the eastern great lakes. A cold front will push across the region on
Friday, resulting in a veering of the winds from south to west-
northwest and modest uptick in wind speeds.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Sc
discussion... Aa
marine... ... .Sc
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KP58 15 mi14 min WNW 8.9 28°F 1034.9 hPa16°F
PSCM4 30 mi65 min NW 9.9 G 16 26°F 1034.2 hPa (+1.7)
45008 - S HURON 43NM East of Oscoda, MI 33 mi75 min WNW 19 G 23 29°F 46°F6 ft1033.5 hPa (+2.9)
45149 - Southern Lake Huron 37 mi125 min WNW 16 G 21 29°F 47°F5 ft1033.8 hPa
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 49 mi25 min W 9.9 G 15 26°F 1034.5 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 51 mi25 min NW 7 G 13 26°F 1034.5 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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NW12
G16
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W7
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W6
G9
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G12
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G11
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G15
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S12
G16
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G10
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G7
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SW7

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Hope, MI15 mi74 minWNW 8 G 17 mi28°F14°F56%1034.7 hPa
Huron County Memorial Airport, MI18 mi70 minW 10 G 1610.00 miMostly Cloudy28°F14°F57%1033.9 hPa

Wind History from P58 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW9
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W12NW11
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W14
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W9W7W8
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W6W6W8
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1 day agoW5556W5W3W3W5NW9NW9N6NW8NW7NW8NW8NW8NW105NW10
G15
NW7NW9
G16
NW11NW12NW10
2 days ago5SW8SW95453Calm444SW5SW5SW4SW4SW4SW4S3SW4SW4SW5SW44W6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.