Sunrise 5:52 AM   Sunset 7:26 PM Moonrise 12:03 PM   Moonset 3:06 AM

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ANZ152 Coastal Waters From Port Clyde, Me To Cape Elizabeth, Me Out 25 Nm- 1008 Pm Edt Mon Apr 15 2024
Rest of tonight - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 4 ft. Tue - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Tue night - NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wed - NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft. Wed night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Thu - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Thu night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Fri - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Fri night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of showers. Sat - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers. Sat night - W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.

ANZ100 1008 Pm Edt Mon Apr 15 2024
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm a weak cold front moves across the waters this evening and then high pressure gradually builds across the waters through the middle of this week low pressure approaches from the west late in the week and is forecast to cross the waters on Saturday. High pressure will slowly build toward the waters Sunday into early next week.

FXUS61 KGYX 160202 AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1002 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

SYNOPSIS
A weak cold front exits the region this evening. High pressure gradually builds in Tuesday and Wednesday. A cold front approaches late in the week bringing another chance for rain showers late Friday into Saturday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
1000 PM Update... Skies have cleared across the region and these clear skies combined with light winds and low dew points is allowing for strong radiational cooling in many locations with a few readings already down into the 30s. The latest HRRR indicates these clear skies will persist south of the mountains through the night with clouds gradually increasing further to the north. As a result, went ahead and lowered forecast lows by several degrees with the greatest change across southern valley locations. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.

Previously...
730 PM Update... Minor changes to reflect latest observational trends. Showers continue to track northeastward over the Mid- Coast region, which is a little later than the previous forecast so PoPs were increased some to account for this. Otherwise, it will continue to be a quiet evening.

Previously...
Cold front and weak 500 mb trough are producing a few scattered showers, which are mostly over S NH and the coastal plain of ME at 3 PM. These should shift S and E over the next few hours and will likely be out of the CWA by 6 PM, although a few mtn showers will be possible into the first part of the evening.
Upslope mtn clouds will likely hang around through much of the night, but should see gradual clearing overnight S of the mtns.
Although some areas may decouple, there is enough flow where and clouds that full rad cooling is not expected, and lows range from the mid 30s in the mtns to around 40 in the S, but again some of the more sheltered spots could drop to around 30 if there’s enough clearing.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Tuesday should start off mainly sunny outside the mtns and partly sunny in the mtns. It’ll be breezy with WNW winds, and some gusts to around 25 mph, but it’ll be mixing warm enough air down to push temps back into the 60s across much of the areas S of the mtns, and could approach 70 again in S NH. The mountains will generally top out the 50s, and should see clearing in the afternoon.

Tuesday night does look like a good rad cooling night with clear skies and sfc ridge pushing in from the N allowing winds to slacken. Also with Tds in the upper 20s to mid 30s, this should allow temps to fall rapidly. Lows will range from the mid to upper 20s in the mtns to the low to mid 30s in the S. Again isolated sheltered areas could come in several degrees below this. Also, uncertain about fog, given the dry air mass, but could see it some patchy fog in the CT valley.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Broad high pressure and a very dry airmass, characterized by PWATs around 0.25", will provide plenty of sunshine for Wednesday.
Temperatures should be able to warm into the low 60s for most of the area, except mid 60s across southern NH. This is slightly above guidance with how dry the air is. The exception is along the coast with the northerly flow being light enough to allow for the seabreeze development to keep things a touch cooler and in the 50s.
Upper ridge builds overhead Wednesday night, and the same airmass sticks around. This will keep most areas clear or mostly clear, and with light winds I have blended in some MET/MAV guidance to account for radiational cooling. NH get some more clouds through the course of the night so I haven't gone as low there.

An upper low will open to a wave as it moves across the Great Lakes on Thursday. This wave will move toward New England, temporarily weakening the ridge, and perhaps bring some light showers to the area. The better potential looks to be across NH with a gradual increase in moisture in the Thurs-Thurs night time frame. That said, I have actually lowered PoPs during the day Thursday as the GFS seems to be the outlier in how quickly it increases moisture and brings the wave across, but I still 20-30% chances later in the day into Thursday night where there is more agreement among the models.

Most of Friday looks dry with the ridge still largely in control, but it will eventually shift east of the region as a low pressure system moves across the Hudson Bay/Great Lakes regions and sends a cold front toward New England. Global models have come into slightly better agreement since this time yesterday with focusing more in the Friday evening into Saturday window for us to see some rain showers with the better potential for northern areas. However, there are hints of a weak southern stream low that could may end up increase chances farther south as a well. Amounts from ensemble continue to support amounts around 0.25".

There's still timing discrepancies with the frontal passage although sometime on Saturday, and following the front, Sunday and Monday are looking dry, other than lingering upslope showers in the mountains.

AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Short Term...There might be some on and off MVFR cigs at KHIE through this evening in upslope flow, but otherwise VFR is expected through Monday night.

Long Term...VFR expected at all sites Wednesday through at least Wednesday night. A weak disturbance may bring a brief period of rain showers to the area Thursday and Thursday night along with MVFR ceilings (with more potential in NH). Higher chances for rain showers and flight restrictions will accompany a cold front in the late Friday through Saturday timeframe.

MARINE
Short Term...Will hold the SCA through 00Z as still seeing reports of 5-6 feet, but the trend continues downward, so 00Z might work out well. After that should stay out of SCA conditions through Tuesday night.

Long Term...Conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels Wednesday through Friday with high pressure in control. The high starts to slide east of the waters on Friday as a cold front approaches the region with the front looking to cross sometime on Saturday. It's possible a weak low pressure precedes the front and moves into the waters Friday night, and if this occurs, it could bring a brief period of SCA conditions. Behind the front, W/WNW winds may gusts in excess of 25 kt Saturday into Saturday night.
Conditions look to improve Sunday into Monday as high pressure slowly builds into the Northeast U.S.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

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Boothbay Harbor
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Mon -- 02:29 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:56 AM EDT     9.04 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:55 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:24 AM EDT     0.68 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:14 PM EDT     First Quarter
Mon -- 05:45 PM EDT     7.76 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:37 PM EDT     1.79 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Boothbay Harbor, Maine, Tide feet

Lowe Point (northeast of)
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Mon -- 12:23 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:29 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 02:48 AM EDT     1.35 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:44 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:08 AM EDT     -1.74 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 10:56 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:17 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:14 PM EDT     First Quarter
Mon -- 03:42 PM EDT     1.13 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 04:26 PM EDT     1.12 knots Min Flood
Mon -- 05:14 PM EDT     1.13 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 07:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:30 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:32 PM EDT     -1.24 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Lowe Point (northeast of), Sasanoa River, Maine Current, knots

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