Sunrise 5:10 AM   Sunset 8:02 PM Moonrise 1:07 PM   Moonset 2:21 AM

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ANZ152 Coastal Waters From Port Clyde, Me To Cape Elizabeth, Me Out 25 Nm- 632 Am Edt Thu May 16 2024
Today - E winds around 5 kt, increasing to 5 to 10 kt this afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 8 seconds and se 2 ft at 10 seconds. A chance of showers until late afternoon, then a slight chance of showers late. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less, increasing to 1 to 3 nm late. Tonight - NE winds around 5 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 10 seconds and E 2 ft at 9 seconds. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.Fri - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Wave detail: se 4 ft at 9 seconds and S 4 ft at 9 seconds. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Fri night - E winds around 5 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: se 4 ft at 9 seconds. Sat - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: se 4 ft at 8 seconds. Sat night - NE winds around 5 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: se 5 ft at 8 seconds. Sun - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Sun night - SE winds around 5 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Mon - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Mon night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.

ANZ100 632 Am Edt Thu May 16 2024
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm a slow moving area of low pressure continues to track south of the waters over the next few days high pressure gradually builds across the waters this weekend. Another area of low pressure passes well south of the waters late this weekend.

FXUS61 KGYX 160751 AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 351 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure off the New Jersey coastline will bring some showers into the region today and into this evening, mainly over southern areas. This system will move out to sea on Friday with high pressure controlling our weather through the weekend.
Stronger high pressure and warmer temperatures move in for early next week, with temperatures remaining seasonable for mid May.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Similar to the last couple of mornings, patchy fog will be around in some areas before dissipating within a couple hours post sunrise. It could be locally dense in a few areas, particularly across northern valleys.

Apart from the fog, a stacked area of low pressure south of the area will stay more or less stationary for much of the day today. Guidance has continued in its trend a little farther north with its location, and therefore higher moisture on its northern periphery has already made it farther into southern NH and far SW ME with light rain is already falling. This results in showers continuing this morning across this region into early afternoon along with cloudy skies, although it's still a bit up in the air the northward extent of the precip (there will likely be a sharp cutoff). For now, highest PoPs of 60-80% are along and south of a Keene-Concord-Rochester line a pretty sharp drop off in PoPs to the north. These showers will start winding down by mid to late afternoon as the low starts to move southward. Portions of southern NH may see rainfall amounts in the 0.50"-1.00" range by this afternoon as some private weather stations are already seeing amounts around 0.25" as of 330 AM.

Farther to the north where there will be a little more sunshine, scattered afternoon showers will develop again, especially from the foothills northward. Although coverage is not expected to be as high as Wednesday, what develops will likely be slow-moving and could produce some heavy downpours.

In between these two areas may not see much in the way of precip at all with rain chances of only 20% or less.

Cloudier skies and showers are expected to keep temperatures cooler for southern NH with highs limited to the lower 60s with warmer temperatures of mids 60s to lower 70s farther north and over into interior western Maine. The Maine coast will be cooler and mostly in the lower 60s.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/

The low pressure system continues its dive to the south and east early this evening, which will take the higher moisture along with it. Although a few showers could occur across the north, shower activity for the most part will end pretty quickly. The drier air being pulled in will also offer more clearing, especially away from the coast, and with light winds patchy fog is expected again. Closer to the coast, marine fog and stratus could arrive by early this evening, but low-level becoming light and more N/NE may keep it from becoming too much of an issue. Overnight lows will be range from the mid to upper 40s where more clearing occurs to the lower 50s where more clouds.

The atmosphere will be drier on Friday that we'll see more sunshine than today, but enough moisture will still be present to bring another round of diurnal showers. Northern NH and the western ME mountains have the better chance (around 40%) while I'm carrying a slight chance as far south as central NH and the foothills in western ME. There even may be a thunderstorm across the western ME mountains, but it's not officially in the forecast at the moment. Areas to the south are expected to remain dry. It will be warm again with inland locations reaching the lower to mid 70s with 60s along the coast.



LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Low pressure will remain south and east of our region well out to sea as we begin the long range portion of the forecast. On Saturday, a weakening system will approach from the west. This may possibly trigger a light shower over the northern mountains. It will be seasonably mild with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s, except cooler along the coast where winds will become onshore.

More sunshine can be expected on Sunday as high pressure remains over the region and ridging develops aloft. It will be a repeat performance in the temperature department with upper 60s to lower 70s except cooler near the shore with a sea breeze.

An upper level low over the Mid Atlantic region will act to further build our Northeast ridge aloft early next week. This will lead to above normal temperatures for this time of the year with widespread 70s on Monday and a few areas across the interior topping out in the lower 80s. Along the coast, sea breezes will dominate with temperatures only in the 60s for daytime highs.

Ensemble solutions and latest models remain in relatively good agreement allow a large scale trough to approach the region by Wednesday. This will lead to more clouds and a cooler maritime flow off the Gulf of Maine. Scattered showers will develop over the region as a trough approaches the region.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Short Term...Once fog dissipates this morning, most sites should stay VFR today with lower coverage of showers. The exception will be MHT, CON, PSM, and possibly PWM where the forecast has trended wetter with light rain showers today. MVFR cigs/vsby more likely now, especially at MHT with IFR not out of the question. The other thing to watch for is marine fog and whether it can make it to coastal sites. It should stay offshore through today, but could start moving inland some time this evening, especially at RKD. Overnight though, winds do turn more northerly so that may help things at the coast. However, fog will be possible elsewhere too. Mostly VFR expected Friday.

Long Term...VFR conditions will dominate the region Friday night. Some pockets of MVFR conditions can be expected in the mountains on Saturday in scattered showers. Otherwise, VFR conditions will occur on Sunday and into early next week. By Wednesday, showers will lead to MVFR and possibly IFR conditions as ceiling lower.

MARINE
Short Term...Low pressure south of the waters will result in an east or northeast wind through Friday, but winds are expected to become more southeasterly near the coast in the afternoons today and Friday with the seabreeze. A small swell will slowly build seas to around 4 ft over the outer waters, possibly up to 5 ft well offshore. A Small Craft Advisory may eventually be needed to cover these 5 ft seas.

Long Term...Winds/seas will stay below SCA levels Friday night through Wednesday, as flow remains light. The prominent wind direction will be out of the east.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

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Boothbay Harbor
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Thu -- 12:09 AM EDT     2.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:21 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:28 AM EDT     8.45 feet High Tide
Thu -- 12:47 PM EDT     1.42 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:06 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:09 PM EDT     8.02 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:59 PM EDT     Sunset
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Boothbay Harbor, Maine, Tide feet

Lowe Point (northeast of)
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Thu -- 01:57 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:22 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:09 AM EDT     0.98 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:04 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:22 AM EDT     -1.51 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 01:07 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:32 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:44 PM EDT     1.19 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:53 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:55 PM EDT     -1.17 knots Max Ebb
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Lowe Point (northeast of), Sasanoa River, Maine Current, knots

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