Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Beaverton, MI
March 19, 2024 8:57 AM EDT (12:57 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:39 AM Sunset 7:50 PM Moonrise 1:10 PM Moonset 4:32 AM |
LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 358 Am Edt Tue Mar 19 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through this afternoon - .
Today - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots late in the morning, then diminishing to 15 to 20 knots early in the afternoon becoming west 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Cloudy with a slight chance of light snow showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet late in the afternoon.
Tonight - Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday - Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots increasing to 30 knots early in the afternoon. Partly cloudy in the morning becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Wednesday night - Northwest gales to 35 knot gales diminishing to 30 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet after midnight. Waves occasionally around 7 feet. A gale warning may be needed.
see lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
see lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ400
No data
No data
Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 191050 AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 650 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Accumulating snow this morning, especially far northern lower and eastern upper Michigan.
- Lake effect snow and gusty winds ramp up late today through Wednesday.
- Increasing potential for more snow on Friday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Deep upper-level troughing currently anchored over eastern Canada southward over the eastern seaboard.
Northwest flow aloft across the western Great Lakes into the upper MS Valley and northern Plains. A couple of weak embedded perturbations within this flow regime progged to cross the region today and tonight. At the surface, low pressure centered north of Lk Superior early this morning will gradually drift by to our north today...progged near the Qc/On border by 12z Wednesday. This will allow for a cold front to cross the forecast area from northwest to southeast today.
Accumulating snow this morning: Pretty widespread light snow ongoing early this morning, especially over the eastern U.P. and far northern lower. These areas are still where the primary accumulations are anticipated through midday with 1-3" near and north of M-32. Some locally higher amounts not entirely out of the question in southwest flow lake enhancement areas downwind of Little Traverse Bay and across far southeast Mackinac/Chippewa counties, including Drummond Island. Low probabilities in those areas to wring out 3.5-4". Not much in the way of gustiness with the primary impacts through midday being snow-covered/slick roads, including during this morning's commute.
Lake effect snow/gusty winds ramp up late today: Winds veer west- northwesterly later this afternoon behind a passing cold front. Cold advection to follow with a transition to lake effect snow. This transition occurs first in the eastern U.P. given an initial colder airmass and longer Lk Superior fetch. That transition doesn't really materialize much south of bridge until this evening with increasing coverage of snow showers after 00z. Increasing gustiness through this time frame, especially overnight, with gusts of 20-30 mph becoming common after 06z. Highest additional accums this evening through tonight expected across Chippewa County in the eastern U.P.
of 1-4" with some localized 1-2" amounts south of the bridge in the typical WNW/NW flow snow belts from eastern Grand Traverse County northeastward to Otsego County.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:
Vigorous short wave/vort max/clipper will be impinging on the region Wednesday as a cold, somewhat moist, low level airmass settles across northern Michigan. Sub 1000mb cyclone will move to the east through the day across Quebec, tightening the pressure gradient and increasing the low level winds. Lake effect snow the main concern through this period in addition to gusty northwest winds combining for hazardous travel across NW snow belts.
Primary Forecast Concerns:
Lake effect snow likely ongoing by Wednesday morning (esp E UP) as quick moving clipper/vort max dives southeast across N MI and cold low level temperatures ooze over the "warm" Great Lakes. Progged soundings Wednesday show modest/decent inversion heights (750-850mb depending on location and timing) and moisture depth, although lower portions of the boundary layer appear to be somewhat drier at times across northern lower, esp Wed afternoon. Another caveat, as the trough (both aloft/lower levels) propagate east/southeastward into Ontario/Quebec, lake effect banding will likely shift and propagate southward as well. Thus, although the thermodynamic profiles suggest at least the potential for heavy periods of snowfall, resonance time of said bands might not be long enough to significantly accumulate.
Where bands do remain persistent, however, the potential does exist for several inches of snow across northwest snow belts, especially Chippewa county (Whitefish Bay and vicinity likely best chance for accumulating snowfall), and to a lesser extent Antrim, Otsego, Kalkaska, and Crawford counties. In fact, NBM&HRRR 90th percentiles show ~3-5" in this general area, little bit better potential in Chippewa. Supplement this with several other deterministic guidance showing the potential for moderate accumulation/several inches of snow and this suggests the potential for accumulating snow on Wednesday (Tuesday evening into Wednesday really). Highest accums, potential for moderate amounts, will be Chippewa county, and generally a little less across northern lower. Pressure gradient will tighten as the aforementioned troughing and attendant sfc low move east, thus wind gusts will likely be in the 30-35 mph range as well on Wednesday (with temps in the 20s...brrr). Concern will be heavy falling lake effect snow with these winds resulting in significant reductions in visibility and hazardous travel. Lighter lake effect will linger into early/midday Thursday as cold temperatures remain.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:
Another snow event is likely on Friday. Upper level energy will swing into portions of the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest within a warm, moist advection regime (at least during the day on Friday). As a result, precipitation will overspread the region, focusing south of M-32. Still some discrepancies within model guidance. GFS remains quite robust suggesting a moderate to heavy wet snow event. Cannot deny the trend in ensembles over the past few days with increased snow total means/percentiles. Quick look at latest NBM suggests this is an event worth watching, the exact progression of the upper level pattern and subsequent placement of the precipitation shield will be crucial. Will be the difference between a light and moderate/heavy snow event, for some areas. All this being said, the best chance for accumulating snow will be south of M-32 as guidance has been hinting at. Active period of weather likely to remain later Sunday through the early-mid portions of next week.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
Lingering light snow this morning pretty quickly diminishes with CIGs largely improving to VFR (MVFR longest at CIU). Renewed lake effect snow chances return later this afternoon at CIU and eventually at northwest lower terminals tonight. Ongoing breezy southwest winds this morning veer west-northwesterly this afternoon.
MARINE
Some sporadic low-end Small Craft Advisory winds/waves anticipated on northern MI's nearshore waters today with more solid advisory conditions anticipated to ramp up tonight through Wednesday. Very late tonight into Wednesday also features low probabilities for some low end sporadic gale gusts, primarily on far northern Lake Michigan and Huron.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Wednesday for MIZ086.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LHZ345>348.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LHZ349.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LMZ323-341- 342-344>346.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LSZ321-322.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 650 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Accumulating snow this morning, especially far northern lower and eastern upper Michigan.
- Lake effect snow and gusty winds ramp up late today through Wednesday.
- Increasing potential for more snow on Friday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Deep upper-level troughing currently anchored over eastern Canada southward over the eastern seaboard.
Northwest flow aloft across the western Great Lakes into the upper MS Valley and northern Plains. A couple of weak embedded perturbations within this flow regime progged to cross the region today and tonight. At the surface, low pressure centered north of Lk Superior early this morning will gradually drift by to our north today...progged near the Qc/On border by 12z Wednesday. This will allow for a cold front to cross the forecast area from northwest to southeast today.
Accumulating snow this morning: Pretty widespread light snow ongoing early this morning, especially over the eastern U.P. and far northern lower. These areas are still where the primary accumulations are anticipated through midday with 1-3" near and north of M-32. Some locally higher amounts not entirely out of the question in southwest flow lake enhancement areas downwind of Little Traverse Bay and across far southeast Mackinac/Chippewa counties, including Drummond Island. Low probabilities in those areas to wring out 3.5-4". Not much in the way of gustiness with the primary impacts through midday being snow-covered/slick roads, including during this morning's commute.
Lake effect snow/gusty winds ramp up late today: Winds veer west- northwesterly later this afternoon behind a passing cold front. Cold advection to follow with a transition to lake effect snow. This transition occurs first in the eastern U.P. given an initial colder airmass and longer Lk Superior fetch. That transition doesn't really materialize much south of bridge until this evening with increasing coverage of snow showers after 00z. Increasing gustiness through this time frame, especially overnight, with gusts of 20-30 mph becoming common after 06z. Highest additional accums this evening through tonight expected across Chippewa County in the eastern U.P.
of 1-4" with some localized 1-2" amounts south of the bridge in the typical WNW/NW flow snow belts from eastern Grand Traverse County northeastward to Otsego County.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:
Vigorous short wave/vort max/clipper will be impinging on the region Wednesday as a cold, somewhat moist, low level airmass settles across northern Michigan. Sub 1000mb cyclone will move to the east through the day across Quebec, tightening the pressure gradient and increasing the low level winds. Lake effect snow the main concern through this period in addition to gusty northwest winds combining for hazardous travel across NW snow belts.
Primary Forecast Concerns:
Lake effect snow likely ongoing by Wednesday morning (esp E UP) as quick moving clipper/vort max dives southeast across N MI and cold low level temperatures ooze over the "warm" Great Lakes. Progged soundings Wednesday show modest/decent inversion heights (750-850mb depending on location and timing) and moisture depth, although lower portions of the boundary layer appear to be somewhat drier at times across northern lower, esp Wed afternoon. Another caveat, as the trough (both aloft/lower levels) propagate east/southeastward into Ontario/Quebec, lake effect banding will likely shift and propagate southward as well. Thus, although the thermodynamic profiles suggest at least the potential for heavy periods of snowfall, resonance time of said bands might not be long enough to significantly accumulate.
Where bands do remain persistent, however, the potential does exist for several inches of snow across northwest snow belts, especially Chippewa county (Whitefish Bay and vicinity likely best chance for accumulating snowfall), and to a lesser extent Antrim, Otsego, Kalkaska, and Crawford counties. In fact, NBM&HRRR 90th percentiles show ~3-5" in this general area, little bit better potential in Chippewa. Supplement this with several other deterministic guidance showing the potential for moderate accumulation/several inches of snow and this suggests the potential for accumulating snow on Wednesday (Tuesday evening into Wednesday really). Highest accums, potential for moderate amounts, will be Chippewa county, and generally a little less across northern lower. Pressure gradient will tighten as the aforementioned troughing and attendant sfc low move east, thus wind gusts will likely be in the 30-35 mph range as well on Wednesday (with temps in the 20s...brrr). Concern will be heavy falling lake effect snow with these winds resulting in significant reductions in visibility and hazardous travel. Lighter lake effect will linger into early/midday Thursday as cold temperatures remain.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:
Another snow event is likely on Friday. Upper level energy will swing into portions of the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest within a warm, moist advection regime (at least during the day on Friday). As a result, precipitation will overspread the region, focusing south of M-32. Still some discrepancies within model guidance. GFS remains quite robust suggesting a moderate to heavy wet snow event. Cannot deny the trend in ensembles over the past few days with increased snow total means/percentiles. Quick look at latest NBM suggests this is an event worth watching, the exact progression of the upper level pattern and subsequent placement of the precipitation shield will be crucial. Will be the difference between a light and moderate/heavy snow event, for some areas. All this being said, the best chance for accumulating snow will be south of M-32 as guidance has been hinting at. Active period of weather likely to remain later Sunday through the early-mid portions of next week.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
Lingering light snow this morning pretty quickly diminishes with CIGs largely improving to VFR (MVFR longest at CIU). Renewed lake effect snow chances return later this afternoon at CIU and eventually at northwest lower terminals tonight. Ongoing breezy southwest winds this morning veer west-northwesterly this afternoon.
MARINE
Some sporadic low-end Small Craft Advisory winds/waves anticipated on northern MI's nearshore waters today with more solid advisory conditions anticipated to ramp up tonight through Wednesday. Very late tonight into Wednesday also features low probabilities for some low end sporadic gale gusts, primarily on far northern Lake Michigan and Huron.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Wednesday for MIZ086.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LHZ345>348.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LHZ349.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LMZ323-341- 342-344>346.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LSZ321-322.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI | 37 mi | 57 min | SW 25G | 32°F | 29.64 | |||
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI | 48 mi | 77 min | SSW 28G | 32°F | 29.67 |
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Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KIKW JACK BARSTOW,MI | 17 sm | 22 min | SW 12G19 | 10 sm | Overcast | 32°F | 21°F | 64% | 29.64 |
Gaylord, MI,
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