Wednesday, October18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Beaverton, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:54AMSunset 6:49PM Wednesday October 18, 2017 12:54 PM EDT (16:54 UTC) Moonrise 5:31AMMoonset 5:41PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 947 Am Edt Wed Oct 18 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday morning...
Rest of today..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Clear. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the late morning and afternoon.
Thursday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Clear. Waves around 2 feet or less. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:201710182115;;042962 FZUS53 KDTX 181347 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 947 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-182115-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Beaverton, MI
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location: 43.88, -84.42     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 181423
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1023 am edt Wed oct 18 2017

Update
Issued at 1023 am edt Wed oct 18 2017
strong surface ridge axis is now well east of michigan... Extending
from quebec thru new york to the mid atlantic coast. Strong area
of low pressure is centered over central manitoba... With a
trailing cold front thru minnesota and into the central plains
states. Michigan remains in between these two systems within a
tightening low level pressure gradient. Low levels are gradually
beginning to mix as the day heats up... Resulting in increasingly
gusty S SW winds across our region. Winds will continue to
strengthen as we head thru the afternoon and into early evening...

with the strongest winds likely over eastern upper michigan and
along all of our lake michigan shoreline areas. Expect winds will
occasionally gust to 30 to 40 mph within these areas... Especially
during late afternoon early evening. Strengthening southerly flow waa
will boost afternoon high temps into the mid 60s to near 70 degrees.

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 333 am edt Wed oct 18 2017
high impact weather potential: none. Just pretty gusty.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:
early this morning, a potent shortwave trough was trying to close
off as it pushes into central canada, as well as it's associated
deepening sfc low. A resurgence of warmer air was blasting north
through canada ahead of the system, while a tightening pressure
gradient was being seen pressing eastward ahead of the system and
down through the western great lakes. Winds were increasing above
the sfc in NRN michigan, keeping the bl from being completely
decoupled, despite a pretty dry atmosphere around 0.50" to 0.60"
pwat and clear skies. As a result, temperature falls were definitely
slowing. Readings were in the upper 30s to lower 40s in eastern low
lying areas, and in the middle 40s to middle 50s elsewhere.

The central canada upper sfc lows will track eastward through canada
today and across ontario tonight. The pressure gradient will continue
to tighten through this evening, with gusty SW conditions likely
developing pretty quickly by late morning. Strongest gusts are
likely come later this afternoon as we tap into 30 to 40 knots at
the top of a shallow inversion around 925mb. This will lead to 35 to
45 mph SW gusts, strongest probably coming in off lingering overlake
instability from lake michigan into eastern upper far NW lower.

Doubt the 45 mph (advisory level) gusts will be widespread, so no
advisory issued. The evening will be quite gusty still too, until the
gradient weakens overnight ahead of a dry cold front that may bring
a fairly brief period of strato cu. Air mass just way too dry for
rainfall.

Highs in the middle to upper 60s with some lower 70s in downsloping
regimes of NE lower. Lows tonight in the 45 to 50f range most areas
as there will still be some wind.

Short term (Thursday through Friday)
issued at 333 am edt Wed oct 18 2017

A bit cooler Thursday, then warming up Friday...

high impact weather potential... None.

Pattern synopsis forecast... A cold front will be exiting our
southeastern counties Thursday morning, ushering in a cooler airmass
that will stick around only briefly. Behind the front, low clouds
over northern lower will quickly clear out by mid to late morning as
the low levels dry out, with only some passing thin cirrus the rest
of the day. Highs Thursday will range from the upper 50s north to
mid 60s south... A bit cooler than Wednesday but still above normal
for this time of year.

Mostly clear skies and diminishing winds Thursday night will lead to
efficient radiational cooling with lows dipping into the upper 30s
inland to mid 40s near the lakes. Ridging at the surface and aloft
over the upper great lakes late Thursday into Friday will lead to
continued dry weather on Friday and also kick off a warmup to close
out the week. Much of northern lower likely to reach the low 70s on
Friday. Somewhat breezy southerly flow expected with a respectable
pressure gradient over the region.

Long term (Friday night through Tuesday)
issued at 333 am edt Wed oct 18 2017
high impact weather potential... Minimal.

Weather pattern will become more active heading into the weekend as
an approaching potent shortwave trough makes its way across the
nation's midsection and nudges the overhead ridging farther
downstream. This approaching trough will push a sharp cold front
through the region sometime late Saturday night into Sunday. Models
show a ribbon of substantial moisture for late october out ahead of
the front with potential for a relatively narrow band of showers
along the front. Marginal elevated instability could perhaps support
a rumble of thunder or two Saturday night near lake michigan. An
incoming clipper-type system on Monday will lead to deeper upper
troughing over the upper great lakes heading into mid-week, as well
as a significantly colder airmass. Will likely see some lake effect
processes develop as a result, and forecast soundings are looking
supportive for perhaps the first snowflakes of the season in some
spots.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Thursday morning)
issued at 620 am edt Wed oct 18 2017
a tightening pressure gradient will occur through this evening as
deep low pressure tracks through canada. Stronger gusts are
anticipated than yesterday. These winds die off through the
overnight as a dry cold front crosses into Thursday morning,
shifting winds westerly. The air mass remains too dry for any
rainfall. There is a possibility for llws tonight, but winds will
remain gusty with the bl being mixed. Thus have not included in
this issuance. Will say that winds at 1500 feet are expected to be
blowing at 45 to 50 knots. Just depends how gusty it will be at
the sfc for llws. Outside of some low endVFR clouds possible with
the front late tonight, skies expected to be skc.

Marine
Issued at 333 am edt Wed oct 18 2017
a tightening pressure gradient will occur through this evening as
deep low pressure tracks through canada. Winds will increase to
gales later today and this evening in lake michigan and whitefish
bay until an approaching cold front later tonight relaxes the
gradient some. Still somewhat unsure about lake huron gales, and
have kept them in that high end advisory category. Low end gales are
certainly not out of the question there. The cold front will be dry,
no rain as the atmosphere is still quite dry. Winds will weaken
further into Thursday, but a handful of advisories may still be
needed. More wind expected at the end of the work week and into
Saturday with yet another low pressure in canada. Advisories
likely.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 5 pm edt Thursday for lhz345>348.

Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Thursday for lhz349.

Lm... Gale warning until midnight edt tonight for lmz323-341-342-
344>346.

Ls... Small craft advisory until 5 pm edt Thursday for lsz322.

Gale warning until midnight edt tonight for lsz321.

Update... Mr
near term... Smd
short term... Mk
long term... Mk
aviation... Smd
marine... Smd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 37 mi55 min SSW 17 G 20 59°F 1020.3 hPa (-1.0)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 48 mi75 min SSW 6 G 19 57°F 1021 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 58 mi75 min SSW 8 G 16 62°F 1020.3 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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NE5
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W17
G25
W16
G23
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G26
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G30
NW15
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G18
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G14
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N12
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W2
G6
N7
G10
N6
G9

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jack Barstow Airport, MI17 mi61 minSSW 9 G 167.00 miFair63°F43°F48%1020.7 hPa

Wind History from IKW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW15
G20
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SW5CalmCalmCalmCalmSW5SW3SW3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4SW7SW9S11
G17
1 day agoCalmS6S7S8CalmSW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4CalmCalmCalmS3S3S6SW7SW8SW10
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2 days agoW19
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G26
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G15
NW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.