Saturday, April29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Beaverton, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:28AMSunset 8:39PM Saturday April 29, 2017 1:36 PM EDT (17:36 UTC) Moonrise 8:20AMMoonset 11:28PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 947 Am Edt Sat Apr 29 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through late Sunday night...
Rest of today..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy in the late morning and early afternoon becoming mostly cloudy. A slight chance of light showers late in the afternoon. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Tonight..East winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northeast to 30 knots in the late evening and early morning...then becoming east 20 to 25 knots early in the morning. Light showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet in the late evening and overnight. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Sunday..East winds 20 to 25 knots becoming northeast 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Showers and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming east 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Showers with Thunderstorms likely. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet after midnight. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:201704292115;;450626 FZUS53 KDTX 291347 NSHDTX NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST FOR MICHIGAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 947 AM EDT SAT APR 29 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE WAVES ARE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT - THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. OCCASIONAL WAVE HEIGHT IS THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/10 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. LHZ422-292115-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Beaverton, MI
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location: 43.88, -84.42     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 291429
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1029 am edt Sat apr 29 2017

Update
Issued at 1019 am edt Sat apr 29 2017
high pressure is nosing into N lower and E upper this morning.

This is pushing a relatively dry north flow into the region. The
warm front that will move into the upper great lakes later today,
will take its time as the cool, dry flow from the high impedes the
precipitation along the front. This is expected to allow more
sunshine for the day, and lower minimum relative humidity for the
afternoon. This will also delay the onset of the precipitation into
the early evening. Near term models are already trending to a
slower progression north, so have trended that way as well.

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 315 am edt Sat apr 29 2017

Dry and cool today... Widespread precip developing tonight...

high impact weather potential... None.

Pattern synopsis/forecast... Elongated inverted trough/warm front
extends from low pressure centered over texas thru the bootheel of
missouri and along the ohio valley early this morning. Meanwhile...

high pressure is centered over the northern plains... With weak
ridging extending thru the northern great lakes region. Weak wave
riding thru the fast SW upper level flow that produced an area of
light rain mixed with some spotty light snow last night has pushed
east out of michigan... Leaving mostly cloudy skies just a few
patches of lingering light rain/drizzle early this morning. Temps
remain quite cool in the mid 30s to lower 40s at this hour.

As we head into today... Upstream high pressure will slide into
northern michigan in the wake of the departing short wave...

establishing a better foothold on our area. Clouds will decrease
this morning... But will begin to increase again from south to north
later this afternoon as the ohio valley trough/warm front begins to
lift northward toward the great lakes region in response to further
deepening/organization of the southern plains low. Widespread precip
will begin to develop from south to north across most of northern
lower michigan this evening... Making continued slow northward
progress thru the tip of the mitt and the straits area during the
overnight hours. Gradual northward progress of WAA along with deep
moisture advection will limit any chances of snow mixing in with the
rain to the northern edge of the precip shield. Instability will be
virtually nonexistent tonight... So thunder is not expected. While
some of our southern CWA will likely see a quarter to a half an inch
of rainfall tonight... The potentially heavier rainfall should hold
off until Sunday and Sunday night.

High temps this afternoon will range from the mid 40s in eastern
upper michigan to the lower 50s along and south of m-72. Low temps
tonight will be mainly in the mid 30s to near 40 degrees.

Short term (Sunday through Monday)
issued at 315 am edt Sat apr 29 2017

Heavy soaking rains Sunday through Monday morning...

high impact weather potential... Moderate to heavy rainfall Sunday
through Monday morning (particularly over northern lower mi) will
lead to rises on area streams and rivers and possibly some minor
flooding. Embedded thunderstorms possible Sunday night into Monday
morning.

Pattern synopsis/forecast... A very moist airmass will lift into
northern michigan Sunday into Monday with anomalously high pwats
climbing to 1 to 1.5" (2 to 4 standard deviations above the mean).

Pronounced baroclinic zone and warm front laid out downstate Sunday
morning will slowly lift northward through the day. Meanwhile
ongoing strong WAA just above the surface and northward creeping
band of frontogenetic lift will generate additional rounds of
moderate to heavy rainfall over northern michigan through the day,
heaviest south of the bridge. This will all take place out ahead of
an intense occluding low over the central plains that will slowly
lift into the upper midwest Sunday night into Monday. As the core of
this system reaches iowa Sunday evening, a robust LLJ will develop
and nose into northern mi. This will result in Sunday night being
the most efficient period of moisture transport, and warm cloud
depths approaching 3.5 km will promote efficient rainfall over all
of northern mi. Marginal elevated instability will come into play
over northern mi late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night with 200-
300 j/kg of mucape, so some embedded thunderstorms are definitely
plausible given the strong lift that will be in play.

The best instability and lift will push east of the area by late
Monday morning as the dry slot encroaches, bringing an end to the
steady, heavier rains. CAA will strip out the deeper moisture by
midday, though there will be enough lingering low level wrap-around
moisture to allow for scattered afternoon showers as low level lapse
rates steepen. This will also lead to breezy conditions Monday
afternoon with gusts to around 30 mph.

Primary forecast concerns... Models have been in pretty good
agreement with the track of this system and generally consistent
with the axis of heaviest precipitation laying out from chicago to
northeast lower mi. They remain split on actual precip amounts,
however, with the NAM (as an outlier) generating more than 5" of
rain across central lower mi from Saturday night through Monday
morning. The GFS and ECMWF are more conservative (and believable)
with 2 to 3" over northern lower. The canadian had higher amounts
more in line with the NAM but backed off a bit with the 29.00z run,
now more in line with the gfs/ecmwf. Additionally, GEFS and SREF qpf
plumes are showing less spread and greater clustering around their
respective means... Roughly 2 to 3" across northern lower and 1 to
1.5" over eastern upper. Highest totals will generally fall
southeast of a line from cadillac to alpena.

Long term (Monday night through Friday)
issued at 315 am edt Sat apr 29 2017
high impact weather potential... None.

Intense occluded low will lift from the western upper peninsula into
southern ontario Monday night. CAA will be ongoing with wrap-around
showers continuing Monday night into Tuesday. Breezy conditions will
develop again on Tuesday on the back side of this departing system.

Much drier air will start to filter into the region Tuesday night,
bringing an end to any lingering showers (though a few wet
snowflakes could mix in Tuesday evening as temperatures drop through
the 30s). High pressure and a dry airmass will allow for quiet
weather across the region for Wednesday and probably most of
Thursday. However, a system that should largely pass to our south on
Thursday could perhaps brush northern michigan if it favors a more
northern track shown by the 29.00z ecmwf. Temperatures will be on a
gradual warming trend through the period, climbing back above
seasonal normals by Friday.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning)
issued at 645 am edt Sat apr 29 2017
remaining MVFR CIGS will quickly mix out this morning... Leaving
solidVFR skies for the rest of the day and much of the evening
hours as well. Clouds will increase and CIGS will lower to MVFR
from south to north later this evening and overnight as widespread
rain develops. Northerly winds at 10 to 15 kts will become e/ne
tonight.

Marine
Issued at 315 am edt Sat apr 29 2017
winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria today and this
evening as surface ridging builds overhead and then pushes north of
michigan. Conditions will begin to strengthen to SCA criteria late
tonight and Sunday as deepening low pressure slowly lifts NE toward
the western great lakes region. Widespread precip will develop
tonight and will continue into Sunday and Sunday night as deep
moisture surges northward into michigan ahead of this system.

Apx watches/warnings/advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Update... Jsl
near term... Mlr
short term... Mek
long term... Mek
aviation... Mlr
marine... Mlr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 37 mi37 min ENE 8.9 G 12 43°F 1023.7 hPa (+1.7)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 48 mi57 min ENE 16 G 18 40°F 1024.4 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 58 mi57 min ENE 14 G 19 44°F 1023.7 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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SW15
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W6
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G18
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G14
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G24
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2 days
ago
S13
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G23
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G27
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G21
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G26
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G32
S11
G19
S12
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G23
S15
SE14
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SE16
SE13
G16
SE14
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S17

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jack Barstow Airport, MI17 mi44 minNE 610.00 miFair53°F31°F44%1023.4 hPa

Wind History from IKW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW11
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W5SW6W4NW3N4CalmNE5NE6NE4N5N6N6N3N4N8N5NE7N3CalmN6
1 day agoSW20
G28
W23
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SW6SW10
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W8SW9
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SW8W11
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2 days agoS17
G25
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G24
S9
G17
S15
G21
S9
G19
SW7
G14
W6CalmCalmE4CalmCalmSE7SE9SE9
G18
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SE9S10S7S10
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G21
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G33
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G31

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.