Sunrise 6:21 AM   Sunset 8:46 PM Moonrise 4:03 AM   Moonset 5:00 PM

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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 343 Pm Edt Sun May 5 2024
Tonight - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less. Monday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Monday night - East winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Tuesday - East winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with a chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
see lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.

LHZ400
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 051947 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 347 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Frost/freeze potential tonight, especially across inland areas.

- Shower/storm chances return Tuesday into Wednesday.

- Cool temperatures, rain chances through the end of the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Pattern Synopsis:

Mid/upper-level troughing will continue to slide across southeast Canada tonight and Monday as upstream ridging amplifies with time, eventually working over the Great Lakes by the end of the period.
Subsidence aloft generated at the ridge/trough inflection point will build surface high pressure directly overhead tonight, and largely remain in place through Monday.

Forecast Details:

Frost/freeze tonight -- Rain-free weather with sunny/clear skies is in store for the area through Monday with aforementioned high pressure in place. The main concern will be frost/freeze conditions across a large swath of northern Michigan late tonight into Monday morning. Calm winds and clear skies will support efficient radiational cooling tonight, allowing daytime temperatures in the 60s and low 70s to plummet into the low to mid 30s by early Monday morning. As is typical with these set ups, localized low-lying areas speckled across the interior higher terrain -- including obs sites near Atlanta, Roscommon, Grayling, Indian River, and Pellston -- may even see temperatures dip into the 20s as the coldest air from surrounding higher terrain pools in these locations. Protective measures should be taken for sensitive vegetation so they are not damaged, such as bringing plants indoors and the use of frost fans given the strong inversion that will be in place.

Otherwise, temperatures on Monday look to warm into the upper 60s to mid 70s across most of the area -- with slightly cooler temperatures along the immediate lakeshores.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Pattern Synopsis:

Highly amplified ridging over the Great Lakes will be pushed eastward and separated as a strong jet associated with an impressive mid/upper-level low centered over the northern Great Plains punches over the region. A weak surface cyclone supported by said troughing will also work across the Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Troughing looks to remain in place through the end of the week.

Forecast Details:

Shower/thunderstorm chances return Tuesday into Wednesday -- Quiet weather is expected to remain in place into Tuesday afternoon before showers and thunderstorm chances return late Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning. There's still uncertainty as to how far north favorable warm/moist air gets late Tuesday into Wednesday, which will impact thunderstorm potential. Current confidence is that thunderstorm chances are low, but non-zero, and that best chances for severe storms will confined well south of the CWA near the MI/IN/OH border. A few showers may linger across the eastern U.P.
and northeast lower, but the majority of shower activity is expected to move out of the area by Wednesday morning.

Cool temperatures, rain chances through the end of the week -- As aforementioned troughing pivots overhead, cooler temperatures will return to the region. Highs in the 50s are expected for most areas through the second half of the week into the weekend. Best chances for rain will come on Thursday, but additional chances for rain are also possible at times through the first half of the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
VFR conditions are expected across northern Michigan through the issuance period. Northwest winds will gust to 15-20 kts at times into this evening before going calm tonight. Winds will then increase out of the east/southeast Monday morning, staying around 5- 10 kts into the afternoon.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Monday for MIZ016>018-021>024-027>030-032>035.
MARINE...None.

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