Monday, July24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Beaverton, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:17AMSunset 9:09PM Monday July 24, 2017 4:54 PM EDT (20:54 UTC) Moonrise 6:43AMMoonset 9:07PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 400 Pm Edt Mon Jul 24 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 8 pm edt this evening...
Tonight..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 feet or less in the late evening and overnight.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny early in the morning becoming partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:201707250315;;770874 FZUS53 KDTX 242000 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 400 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-250315-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Beaverton, MI
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location: 43.88, -84.42     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 241856
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
256 pm edt Mon jul 24 2017

Near term (tonight through Tuesday)
issued at 257 pm edt Mon jul 24 2017

Clear and quiet tonight... Sunny and warmer on Tuesday...

high impact weather potential... None.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Strong high pressure continues to build
into the western great lakes region this afternoon in the wake of
low pressure moving toward new england. Lingering weak cyclonic
flow... Weak diurnal instability and residual low level moisture
continue to produce scattered CU across mainly the SE half of our
cwa. This cloud cover will quickly dissipate with the approach of
sunset and loss of diurnal heating... Leaving clear skies for
tonight. Gusty NE winds will quickly diminish this evening as well
as daytime mixing comes to a close and the upstream high pressure
center drifts overhead.

Expect a cool night across the northwoods... With overnight lows
mainly in the lower 50s. Tuesday looks sunny and warmer... With
afternoon highs in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees.

Short term (Tuesday night through Thursday)
issued at 257 pm edt Mon jul 24 2017

Showers and storms return late Tuesday night into Wednesday...

high impact weather potential... Thunderstorms possible late Tuesday
night through Wednesday night.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Southerly return flow will develop
Tuesday night across northern michigan as high pressure departs. A
veering 30-40 knot low level jet will lead to increasing moisture
advection Tuesday night into Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold
front dropping southeast through the upper midwest. Meanwhile, a
series of weak mid-level vort maxes will ripple across northern mi
ahead of the main shortwave trough and aforementioned front, which
will move through our neck of the woods Wednesday night. These
features will bring the next round of showers and thunderstorms to
the region late Tuesday night through Wednesday night. High pressure
and drier air will gradually filter into the region on Thursday,
with a few showers possibly lingering through the morning hours over
northern lower.

A period of warm air advection Tuesday night through Wednesday will
bump high temperatures over much of northern lower into the low 80s,
while the tip of the mitt and eastern upper, with more extensive
cloud cover, will stay in the 70s. Thursday's highs will be in the
mid to upper 70s.

Primary forecast concerns... Thunderstorm potential late Tuesday
night through Wednesday night and the possibility of any severe
storms remain the primary forecast concerns. Instability still
looking rather limited for northern michigan and will be much higher
over southern wisconsin. Looking like fairly extensive cloud cover
ahead of the front on Wednesday, limiting mlcapes over northern mi
to around 500 j kg or less. There will probably be a lull in
thunderstorm activity Wednesday morning after daybreak and before
diurnal instability can build up to support afternoon evening storm
activity. Despite the meager instability, deep layer shear is still
looking favorable over our area, especially across eastern upper.

Bulk shear vectors from 0-6km have a weak orthogonal component to
the front, so expecting quasi-linear clusters of showers and storms
along the front. Forecast soundings continue to show nice low-level
clockwise curvature favorable for some better organized storms. But
that favorable shear won't mean much if meager instability limits
storm development intensity. SPC has most of northern michigan in a
day 3 marginal risk, keeping the slight risk mainly to our southwest
where better instability will be found.

Long term (Thursday night through Monday)
issued at 257 pm edt Mon jul 24 2017
a fairly quiet stretch of weather late this week into this weekend
as high pressure builds in. This will lead to awesome middle of the
summer conditions with warm mostly sunny days and comfortably cool
nights. Did undercut nighttime blend temperatures by a few degrees,
mainly in the normally cooler low lying spots. The next chance for
showers arrives Monday as a cold front approaches.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 109 pm edt Mon jul 24 2017
vfr conditions are expected at all northern lower michigan taf
sites through Tuesday as strong high pressure and dry air thru the
column remain overhead. Northerly winds at 10 to 15 kts will
become light calm tonight... And then become southerly on Tuesday
aob 10 kts.

Marine
Issued at 257 pm edt Mon jul 24 2017
winds and waves will continue to reach SCA criteria along much of
the lake huron nearshore areas into this evening... Dropping below
criteria later this evening as high pressure moves overhead.

Conditions will strengthen to SCA criteria again late Tuesday night
into Wednesday along the lake michigan shoreline as southerly flow
strengthens ahead of our next area of low pressure. Our next chance
of showers and storms will arrive at that time as well.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Beach hazards statement until 5 pm edt this afternoon for miz018-
024-030-036-042.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 5 pm edt this afternoon for lhz348-
349.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 5 pm edt this afternoon for lmz323-
344>346.

Ls... None.

Near term... Mr
short term... Mk
long term... As
aviation... Mr
marine... Mr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 37 mi55 min ENE 19 G 23 67°F 1015.6 hPa (+0.4)
45163 44 mi55 min ENE 19 G 21 69°F 71°F3 ft
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 48 mi48 min NNE 18 G 24 66°F 1016.9 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 58 mi75 min NE 8 G 17 72°F 1016.6 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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E14
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SE6
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G11
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NW6
G10
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G9
E2
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E14
E11
G15
E14
G17

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jack Barstow Airport, MI17 mi61 minNNW 77.00 miPartly Cloudy75°F53°F46%1016.3 hPa

Wind History from IKW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW10NW13
G16
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N5N5NW3N4N4N4N3N3N3NW8NW5NW6N8N10
G14
N7N7N7NE9
G17
N8N11
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NE6
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1 day agoN5N5NE6N3CalmN3CalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4SW6W4CalmSW6W4
2 days agoW5SW3SW9SW3CalmNE3N3CalmE3W5CalmCalmSE3E3NE5CalmNE4NE3NE5CalmCalmN5N5N6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.