Wednesday, December12, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Beaverton, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 8:00AMSunset 5:02PM Wednesday December 12, 2018 12:05 PM EST (17:05 UTC) Moonrise 11:54AMMoonset 10:02PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 937 Am Est Wed Dec 12 2018
Rest of today..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Cloudy. A chance of light snow early in the afternoon. Light snow likely late in the afternoon. A chance of drizzle in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Mostly cloudy. Light snow likely early in the evening, then a chance of light snow late in the evening. A chance of drizzle in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy in the morning becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy in the evening, then mostly cloudy with a chance of light snow after midnight. Cloudy with a chance of light rain and snow early in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less. Wave heights are for ice free areas. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:201812122215;;682329 FZUS53 KDTX 121437 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 937 AM EST Wed Dec 12 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-122215-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Beaverton, MI
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location: 43.88, -84.42     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 121527
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1027 am est Wed dec 12 2018

Update
Issued at 1020 am est Wed dec 12 2018
sharp shortwave trough in the process of deepening just a bit
further as it slides east into southwest wisconsin this morning.

Despite being relatively moisture starved, deep layer forcing is
managing to kick of a bit of light snow mixed precipitation,
especially across central wisconsin. Expect this area of precip to
slide east northeast, spreading across much of northern lower
michigan this afternoon. Soundings support primarily light snow,
with snow amounts largely remaining under an inch. Of perhaps
bigger concern is low level moisture rotating off northern lake
huron into eastern upper michigan. Guidance derived soundings show
nearly all of this moisture remain warmer than -10c, supporting
more freezing drizzle potential. Haven't had any reports so far,
although observations showing slight visibility restrictions in
"mist" is a bit disconcerting. Have added freezing drizzle to the
forecast across much of eastern upper. Don't believe it to be too
big a deal, but will definitely continue to monitor.

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 330 am est Wed dec 12 2018

Light snow accumulations for some locations today...

high impact weather potential... Light snow accumulations this
afternoon and evening mainly along and south of m-72 may cause some
slick spots on roadways.

Pattern synopsis forecast... High pressure is centered over western
quebec with surface ridging extending SW thru michigan. Meanwhile...

low pressure continues to develop over the upper mississippi
valley... With an associated warm front extending eastward from the
low just south of the great lakes region. Moisture is streaming
northward ahead of this system... Generating some light snow over the
mississippi valley and the far western great lakes region. Closer to
home... Skies are mainly cloudy across our CWA with some patchy fog
in spots. Clearing over portions of eastern upper michigan are
beginning to fill back in with low clouds... With mid high clouds
also increasing from SW to NE as deeper moisture begins to push into
the region.

Low pressure will track eastward into lower michigan by early
evening... Exiting lower michigan into SE ontario very late tonight.

Developing upstream area of snow will gradually expand as moisture
continues to deepen with eastward progress into michigan. The
morning hours should remain generally dry across our cwa... With
chances of precip spreading from SW to NE into much of northern
lower michigan during the afternoon and continuing into the evening
hours.

Still appears the majority of any accumulating snow will remain
along and south of m-72 where an inch or less of new snow is
expected by late evening. Moisture will be limited at times
throughout this evening per models soundings and moisture cross
sections... Suggesting some periodic mixing of freezing drizzle with
the light snow. Rest of northern lower michigan will see some light
snow with little to no accumulation this afternoon and evening.

Eastern upper michigan will remain dry but mainly cloudy thru
tonight. High temps will generally be in the lower 30s today... With
overnight lows tonight in the mid 20s to near 30.

Short term (Thursday through Friday)
issued at 330 am est Wed dec 12 2018

Mixed precipitation likely late Thursday night into early
Friday...

high impact weather potential... Hard to say... Low to medium.

Primary forecast concerns... Pops and precipitation type late
Thursday night into Friday morning.

Models continue to hint at moisture trapped under a decent inversion
Thursday. This could lead to a little more patchy drizzle freezing
drizzle or flurries. Attention then turns to a northern stream
trough moving in from northwest and a southern trough (you got it)
moving up from the south. Northern michigan is kind of squeezed in
between these two systems so confidence in the interaction (if any)
is rather low. Extended models continue to trend a little cooler so
there is a somewhat better chance that anything that falls is mainly
in the form of snow but it's close enough for a little freezing rain
and rain to mix in too. There should't be a lot of precipitation (on
the order of a tenth of an inch or less of qpf) but it doesn't take
much in these marginal situations to make roadways slippery.

Therefore, a wintry mix will be added to the hazardous weather
outlook. Highs generally in the mid and upper 30s with lows in the
mid and upper 20s.

Long term (Friday night through Tuesday)
issued at 330 am est Wed dec 12 2018
high impact weather potential... None is expected.

Well, here we go again with lots of sunshine in the forecast for the
weekend. This did not pan out last weekend but there appears to be a
better shot of this happening this weekend (no guarantee by any
means though). Ridging builds in Friday night into Saturday with a
drier northerly flow developing. Model soundings don't show much low
level moisture so am hesitantly optimistic that we will clear out
which is probably not a good bet. A somewhat stronger southwest flow
Sunday should lead to an even better chance for sunshine in the
morning before a trough approaching from the north increases clouds
in the afternoon. Just a weak trough surface cold front moving
through later Sunday night into early Monday, otherwise ridging
builds back in. Clouds or not, no big storm systems appear likely
over the next week or so. Forecast temperatures will continue to be
mild... At least a few degrees above normal with some spots making a
run at 40 degrees over the weekend.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Thursday morning)
issued at 605 am est Wed dec 12 2018
low pressure will slide thru lower michigan today and tonight...

producing some light snow across most of northern lower michigan.

The most persistent snow will fall along and south of m-72 (tvc
and mbl) where vsbys will drop to MVFR within some snow showers.

Cigs will remain MVFR and may drop to ifr in some spots tonight.

Surface winds will remain from the SE at around 10 kts.

Marine
Issued at 330 am est Wed dec 12 2018
winds and waves will reach SCA criteria within all of our nearshore
areas today into tonight as low pressure tracks thru lower michigan.

Snow will expand eastward thru much of lower michigan this afternoon
and evening as this system moves thru the region. Snow will end
overnight and conditions will drop below SCA criteria as this system
exits the region.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 1 am est Thursday for lhz345>349.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 7 pm est this evening for lmz323-341-
342-344>346.

Ls... Small craft advisory until 1 am est Thursday for lsz321-322.

Update... mb
near term... Mr
short term... As
long term... As
aviation... Mr
marine... Mr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 37 mi126 min SE 14 G 16 28°F 1015.6 hPa (-1.0)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 48 mi86 min ESE 13 G 16 29°F 1016.3 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 58 mi86 min SSE 9.9 G 16 33°F 1016.3 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jack Barstow Airport, MI17 mi11 minE 87.00 miOvercast32°F25°F78%1012.5 hPa

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Last 24hrNW6W8W8W6W5W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3E3SE6E7E6E7E8E7
1 day agoSW5SW7SW6SW8SW5S5SW5SW6SW7SW9
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2 days agoW7SW9W10W6W7W4CalmNW4CalmNW3CalmW3CalmCalmNW4CalmCalmSW4CalmCalmCalmS4SW5SW4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.