Wednesday, September26, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Beaverton, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 7:28AMSunset 7:27PM Wednesday September 26, 2018 7:06 AM EDT (11:06 UTC) Moonrise 7:40PMMoonset 7:50AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 336 Am Edt Wed Sep 26 2018
Today..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny until late afternoon becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy early in the evening becoming mostly cloudy. A chance of light showers after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:201809261515;;226559 FZUS53 KDTX 260736 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 336 AM EDT Wed Sep 26 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-261515-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Beaverton, MI
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location: 43.88, -84.42     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 261055
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
655 am edt Wed sep 26 2018

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 355 am edt Wed sep 26 2018

Much cooler with light lake effect rain showers...

high impact weather potential... None expected.

Big airmass change from yesterday behind our surface cold front
which blew across the region earlier this morning. It will feel
brisk and much cooler today. Cool enough aloft (850 mb temps of
about +1 c) to produce a few lake effect streamers off of lake
michigan and lake superior through the morning hours. Surface
ridging poking in from the west may try to limit activity this
afternoon. Winds generally west northwest this morning will slowly
back into the west through the day then eventually southwest
tonight. Perhaps some lingering lake effect tonight in southwest
flow favored areas but moisture thins out so have backed pops down
to slight chance. Have also lowered MAX temps somewhat with a
range from the lower 50s north to the lower 60s southeast. Lows
tonight tricky due to cloud cover questions and whether winds
fully decouple but generally upper 30s to mid 40s expected.

Short term (Thursday through Friday)
issued at 355 am edt Wed sep 26 2018

Cool, breezy, and showery...

high impact weather potential... Low end gales possible on northern
lake michigan Thursday.

Pattern synopsis forecast... As surface high pressure stretches out
over the ohio valley Wednesday night into Thursday, southwest return
flow will increase across northern michigan. Weak isentropic lift
will develop out ahead of an approaching cold front. Low pressure
trekking through southern ontario is progged to drag that cold front
through northern michigan late Thursday night, exiting saginaw bay
shortly after daybreak Friday. Another blast of cooler air will be
the result, as 850mb temperatures fall below 0c by Friday evening.

Primary forecast concerns... Occasional shower chances and winds.

With the exception of eastern upper and a portion of northwest
lower, most areas will stay dry during the day Thursday while high
pressure sits to our south. Eventually upper troughing and weak
isentropic lift will win out, spreading shower chances into the
northwest 1 3 of the forecast area by mid afternoon. The actual
front will begin to move through late evening into the overnight,
bringing additional shower chances. Rainfall amounts will be higher
the farther north one goes, perhaps upwards of 0.25" over eastern
upper. Winds will be the other main concern for Thursday as low
level warm air advection ramps up, with boundary layer mixing up to
~850mb. Winds will be strongest over eastern upper and far northwest
lower as a low level jet stretches from northern lake michigan to
whitefish bay, producing winds up to ~35 knots at 925mb and ~45
knots at 850mb Thursday afternoon. These areas may see gusts of 30
to 35 mph mixing down to the surface from late morning through mid
afternoon.

Additional pockets of weak mid-level energy will ripple through
behind the cold front on Friday, triggering some showers along with
possible lake enhancement. Forecast soundings show the low levels
progressively drying through the afternoon as diurnal mixing reaches
its peak, but expect plenty of residual cloud cover to linger. Not
as breezy as Thursday, but it will feel kind of raw with showers at
times and temperatures largely locked in the 50s thanks to the nw
flow.

Long term (Friday night through Tuesday)
issued at 355 am edt Wed sep 26 2018
high impact weather potential... Frost potential Friday and Saturday
nights?
cool weather lies in store for the weekend as a broad upper trough
pivots over the great lakes region. Diminishing clouds late Friday
night may lead to some patchy inland frost as temperatures dip into
the mid to upper 30s. Surface high pressure will then pass overhead
Saturday into Saturday night. Combined with light winds, this will
be a more favorable setup for frost... However this potential looks
complicated by increasing mid level clouds, especially late. Current
forecast calls for widespread lows in the mid to upper 30s. Plenty
of model variance thereafter, but suffice it to say the pattern
looks unsettled and rather wet at times as a baroclinic zone lifts
into northern michigan and interacts with pwats climbing above 1"
through the first half of the work week.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Thursday morning)
issued at 638 am edt Wed sep 26 2018
over lake instability driven rain showers will be the rule today
into tonight... With rain showers in the vicinity at times at
mbl... Tvc and eventually pln with a westerly flow that becomes
west southwest tonight. CIGS will vary with mainly MVFR through
this morning eventually lifting toVFR. Winds will be gusty at
times today then diminish this evening.

Marine
Issued at 355 am edt Wed sep 26 2018
marginal small craft winds waves expected across all nearshore
waters this morning with a gradual diminishing trend this
afternoon. Another round of gusty winds, reaching at least small
craft criteria, is possible on Thursday... Primarily on lake
michigan where the gale watch is posted.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Beach hazards statement through this evening for miz016-019>021-
025-031.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lhz345>349.

Gale watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for
lhz345.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lmz323-341-
342-344>346.

Gale watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for
lmz323-341-342-344>346.

Ls... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lsz321-322.

Near term... As
short term... Mk
long term... Mk
aviation... As
marine... As


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 37 mi66 min NW 20 G 24 58°F 1009.5 hPa (+2.4)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 48 mi26 min W 18 G 25 57°F 1010.8 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 58 mi86 min WNW 8 G 15 58°F 1009.1 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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W7
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G10
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G23
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G24
E17
G22
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E12
G16
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SE11
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G16
SE13
G16
SE17

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jack Barstow Airport, MI17 mi11 minWNW 410.00 miFair55°F51°F87%1011.8 hPa

Wind History from IKW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3S3CalmCalmCalmSE4S4S5S5S6S4CalmS9SW6SE3S3S9
G14
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G16
SW9
G14
SW6W11
G15
W7NW13
G24
W5
1 day agoE4NE4E5E9E7E11
G15
E8
G17
E9SE11E7E6E3E3E5SE7SE5SE6SE7SE7S5S4S4S4Calm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmSE4NE5E6E8NE3NE3E5E5E3E5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.