Sunrise 5:56 AM   Sunset 9:12 PM Moonrise 1:47 AM   Moonset 1:27 PM

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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 943 Pm Edt Fri May 31 2024
Rest of tonight - South winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less. Saturday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy in the morning, then mostly cloudy with a chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less. Saturday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots veering to the northwest after midnight. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less. Sunday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots backing to the east in the late morning and afternoon. Partly cloudy in the morning becoming mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
see lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.

LHZ400
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 312300 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 700 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and storms later Monday and Tuesday.

- Unsettled weather pattern mid to late next week with rain chances.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 307 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Uneventful conditions continue into tonight with ridging continuing to work its way off to our east. Expect increasing high clouds, comfortably cool temperatures and light southwest winds tonight.
Not nearly as cool as the last couple of nights with lows ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s. Attention will then turn to a strung out trough currently evident on satellite imagery extending from central Canada all the way down to the Gulf coast states. This system is being stretched and becoming more strung out as it crawls to the east. Model guidance shows moisture splitting to our north and south seemingly trying to bypass northern Michigan. At this point it looks like areas along and south of M-72 have the best shot of a few showers Saturday afternoon. Instability looks rather meager so do not anticipate any embedded thunder at this time (little to no mixed layer cape). Highs generally in the low and mid 70s with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Winds remaining generally out of the southwest at 10 to 15 mph with a few gusts approaching 20 mph or so.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 307 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Short waves split and or clip northern Michigan to the north and south Saturday night with scattered showers. Then zonal flow is expected on Sunday, although heights may begin to rise later in the day. Short wave and weakening frontal boundary associated with low pressure system well to the north approaches later Monday with some scattered showers and storms, some chances linger into Tuesday.
Convoluted pattern thereafter but perhaps a more substantial slow moving upper low drops into the Upper Midwest - Ontario with rotating pieces of energy around the center in the vicinity of northern Michigan. Thus, unsettled with shower and storm chances certainly remain into the mid to later portions of this upcoming week.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Energy passes in the vicinity of north and southern portions of northern Michigan Saturday evening into the overnight. This will produce some showers across the region, but seems the best chance to see activity will be south of M-72 and across the eastern UP. Zonal flow takes over Sunday with dry conditions.

Next system approaches later Monday into Tuesday in the form of energy aloft and a weakening frontal boundary. Guidance indicates the potential for scattered showers and storms Monday evening and night, then perhaps the potential for more storms Tuesday afternoon.
Although instability will be minor Monday night, quite a bit of instability is possible Tuesday afternoon as dewpoints rise into the 60s. However, slight short wave ridging is currently progged. So definitely some questions on initiation/coverage but given a trigger (lake breeze?) could be some scattered thunderstorm activity Bulk shear/winds aloft are weak though and thus looking like a minimal severe threat at this time.

Deterministic and ensemble guidance suggests an unsettled period of weather mid to late next week. Messy upper low dives down into Ontario and/or slowly into the Upper Midwest. Current idea is pieces of energy will rotate around the slowly moving upper low center thus resulting in shower and perhaps a few storm chances through the end of the week. Likely getting more showery and less stormy with time as deeper moisture gets shunted/remains to the south. All in all, could be a period of "cooler" and unsettled weather.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 700 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Large area of strong high pressure currently centered over much of the Eastern US will push eastward off of the Atlantic Coast over the next 24 hours. An upstream cold front will push into the Western Great Lakes region on Saturday...bringing a chance of showers to Eastern Upper and Northern Lower Michigan Saturday afternoon and evening
However
the chance of precip is too small to include in the TAFs for now. Light southerly winds tonight will strengthen to around 10 kts on Saturday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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