Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Rochester, VT
March 19, 2024 4:38 AM EDT (08:38 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:53 AM Sunset 7:04 PM Moonrise 1:22 PM Moonset 4:45 AM |
Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 190731 AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 331 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
Active weather will continue through the rest of this week as a series of low pressure systems bring several rounds of precipitation. Another round of showers will spread over the region later today into tonight, falling primarily as snow. This activity will exit to the east overnight, but another system will quickly follow on Wednesday, bringing more rain and snow. This wintry mix will last into Thursday, then we'll see a brief break on Friday.
Another strong system may bring additional rain and snow to the region late Saturday into Sunday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 330 AM EDT Tuesday...Stubborn snow showers will linger through the early morning hours, remaining most focused along and just west of the spine of the Greens. This activity will gradually shift eastward around daybreak, coming to an end shortly after the morning commute. The higher summits should pick up 4-8 inches total, with mid-slopes seeing 1 to 4 inches. An inch or less is expected elsewhere.
Once this morning's snow exits to the east, we'll see a brief break and even perhaps some sunshine here and there. However, our next system will rapidly approach from the west as low pressure develops over the Great Lakes, being proceeded by its warm front. As this front lifts northeastward toward our region, another round of showers will spread from west to east late today and overnight tonight. Although temperatures will range from near freezing to around 40F, precipitation should fall primarily as snow due to wet- bulbing of the column, bringing temperatures down closer to freezing in most spots. Snow may have a tough time sticking to roads during the day, especially if they've been treated and/or seen some sunshine, but accumulation will likley start after dark. Snow showers will persist overnight, especially over the higher terrain. Lows dropping into the mid 20s and lower 30s means accumulation will be possible. All in all, accumulation for today and tonight will range from just a dusting from the Champlain Valley eastward (although upwards of 2 inches on the higher summits of the Greens), to 1 to 3 inches in the southern St Lawrence Valley and into the Adirondacks.
The upper low associated with the aforementioned surface low will swing down through eastern Ontario late Tuesday night into Wednesday, bringing along a cold pool aloft. Combined with steepening lapse rates and SB CAPEs upwards of 150 J/Kg. Hence expect snow showers would be more convective in nature, producing brief heavy precipitation and gusty winds. Still expect precipitation will take the form of snow in most areas, though the wider valleys could see rain showers at times as temperatures are expected to warm into the lower/mid 40s in those areas.
Still, those areas that do see snow could pick up a quick accumulation, especially the higher summits. An additional 1 to 3 inches will be possible there, with lower elevations getting a dusting at best.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 330 AM EDT Tuesday...A mid-winter type of weather pattern will be present during this period as a lobe of bitterly cold air gets advected southeastward behind a diffuse cold front. While the core of this airmass thankfully will remain in central Canada, a squeeze play between moderately strong high pressure to our west and low pressure to our east will make for a blustery period with frequent gusts 25 to 35 MPH. The windy conditions will be aided by steep, superadiabatic low level lapse rates, consistent with a cold and dry environment. That being said, upslope flow will squeeze out some snow showers considering sufficient 925 - 850 millibar relative humidity and 850 millibar temperatures falling into the -13 to -17 Celsius range, suggesting some of this snow could have extreme fluff factor (such as 30:1). Note that this regime also greatly favors unblocked flow, so expect snow primarily along the mountain spines and downwind as we move into the daytime hours after some initial western slope accumulations. Therefore, PoPs quickly drop off during Thursday morning in most locations aside from north central and northeastern Vermont. Some accumulating snow may continue in the Northeast Kingdom into Thursday night. The aforementioned steep low level lapse rates and drying air mass will cause high temperatures to be strongly elevationally dependent, with deep valleys expected to reach into the 30s, while the mountains stay in the teens, and mainly mid and upper 20s elsewhere. Continuous cold air advection will keep conditions breezy into Thursday night, yielding unseasonably cold wind chills in the single digits above and below zero.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 330 AM EDT Tuesday...Another cold day is expected on Friday, although it should be more pleasant as winds will be much lighter than on Thursday as a ridge of high pressure moves across the region. By late in the day, a light northeast wind may develop in the St. Lawrence Valley, a harbinger of our next weather maker. The latest data suggests widespread precipitation, mainly in the form of snow, may begin late Friday night and linger through at least the first half of Saturday. The GEFS in particular is rather bullish with the idea that an interior low quickly gives way to a coastal storm that would have a favorable track, when combined with the antecedent cold air in the region, for a heavy, wet snowfall. An ensemble cluster featuring better jet dynamics with a deeper upstream trough, consistent with 2/3rds of GEFS members, produces an storm total snowfall averaging 7" or greater for most of Vermont and northern New York assuming a 10:1 ratio, which may be a reasonable first guess. Keep in mind there is an unusually large discrepancy between global model camps right now. The EPS continues to show little or no phasing of the southern and northern stream systems that leads to only a light snowfall during about the same timeframe.
Even within the GEFS, subtle differences in storm track make a massive difference in snowfall footprints and precipitation type such as cold rain versus wet snow. Overall, while forecast confidence on a significant event is low at this time, confidence of some precipitation is high and we can expect a further increasing trend in PoPs, now mainly in the 50- 70% range between 2 AM and 2 PM Saturday. Beyond this potential system, we may see another reinforcing shot of unseasonably cold air for Sunday; if so, some more snow showers could be expected. Then Monday through Tuesday the upper level pattern will feature meridional flow with western US troughing, signaling a return to our regularly scheduled above normal temperatures as soon as Tuesday with potential wet weather by midweek.
AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Through 06Z Wednesday...Although most terminals are currently MVFR this evening, variable flight categories will be possible, especially early in the TAF period as scattered snow showers affect the region. Overall, expect MVFR to continue to prevail, though VFR at KPBG, and IFR more likely at KEFK and KMPV. Given variability of observations over the past few hours, have utilized TEMPO groups at most sites through 08z-10z. Outside of snow showers, a mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings will persist until around 12Z when most terminals should trend towards VFR. Winds overnight will generally be less than 10 knots from the west, becoming gusty after 15Z.
Outlook...
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR and IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Likely SHSN.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 331 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
Active weather will continue through the rest of this week as a series of low pressure systems bring several rounds of precipitation. Another round of showers will spread over the region later today into tonight, falling primarily as snow. This activity will exit to the east overnight, but another system will quickly follow on Wednesday, bringing more rain and snow. This wintry mix will last into Thursday, then we'll see a brief break on Friday.
Another strong system may bring additional rain and snow to the region late Saturday into Sunday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 330 AM EDT Tuesday...Stubborn snow showers will linger through the early morning hours, remaining most focused along and just west of the spine of the Greens. This activity will gradually shift eastward around daybreak, coming to an end shortly after the morning commute. The higher summits should pick up 4-8 inches total, with mid-slopes seeing 1 to 4 inches. An inch or less is expected elsewhere.
Once this morning's snow exits to the east, we'll see a brief break and even perhaps some sunshine here and there. However, our next system will rapidly approach from the west as low pressure develops over the Great Lakes, being proceeded by its warm front. As this front lifts northeastward toward our region, another round of showers will spread from west to east late today and overnight tonight. Although temperatures will range from near freezing to around 40F, precipitation should fall primarily as snow due to wet- bulbing of the column, bringing temperatures down closer to freezing in most spots. Snow may have a tough time sticking to roads during the day, especially if they've been treated and/or seen some sunshine, but accumulation will likley start after dark. Snow showers will persist overnight, especially over the higher terrain. Lows dropping into the mid 20s and lower 30s means accumulation will be possible. All in all, accumulation for today and tonight will range from just a dusting from the Champlain Valley eastward (although upwards of 2 inches on the higher summits of the Greens), to 1 to 3 inches in the southern St Lawrence Valley and into the Adirondacks.
The upper low associated with the aforementioned surface low will swing down through eastern Ontario late Tuesday night into Wednesday, bringing along a cold pool aloft. Combined with steepening lapse rates and SB CAPEs upwards of 150 J/Kg. Hence expect snow showers would be more convective in nature, producing brief heavy precipitation and gusty winds. Still expect precipitation will take the form of snow in most areas, though the wider valleys could see rain showers at times as temperatures are expected to warm into the lower/mid 40s in those areas.
Still, those areas that do see snow could pick up a quick accumulation, especially the higher summits. An additional 1 to 3 inches will be possible there, with lower elevations getting a dusting at best.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 330 AM EDT Tuesday...A mid-winter type of weather pattern will be present during this period as a lobe of bitterly cold air gets advected southeastward behind a diffuse cold front. While the core of this airmass thankfully will remain in central Canada, a squeeze play between moderately strong high pressure to our west and low pressure to our east will make for a blustery period with frequent gusts 25 to 35 MPH. The windy conditions will be aided by steep, superadiabatic low level lapse rates, consistent with a cold and dry environment. That being said, upslope flow will squeeze out some snow showers considering sufficient 925 - 850 millibar relative humidity and 850 millibar temperatures falling into the -13 to -17 Celsius range, suggesting some of this snow could have extreme fluff factor (such as 30:1). Note that this regime also greatly favors unblocked flow, so expect snow primarily along the mountain spines and downwind as we move into the daytime hours after some initial western slope accumulations. Therefore, PoPs quickly drop off during Thursday morning in most locations aside from north central and northeastern Vermont. Some accumulating snow may continue in the Northeast Kingdom into Thursday night. The aforementioned steep low level lapse rates and drying air mass will cause high temperatures to be strongly elevationally dependent, with deep valleys expected to reach into the 30s, while the mountains stay in the teens, and mainly mid and upper 20s elsewhere. Continuous cold air advection will keep conditions breezy into Thursday night, yielding unseasonably cold wind chills in the single digits above and below zero.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 330 AM EDT Tuesday...Another cold day is expected on Friday, although it should be more pleasant as winds will be much lighter than on Thursday as a ridge of high pressure moves across the region. By late in the day, a light northeast wind may develop in the St. Lawrence Valley, a harbinger of our next weather maker. The latest data suggests widespread precipitation, mainly in the form of snow, may begin late Friday night and linger through at least the first half of Saturday. The GEFS in particular is rather bullish with the idea that an interior low quickly gives way to a coastal storm that would have a favorable track, when combined with the antecedent cold air in the region, for a heavy, wet snowfall. An ensemble cluster featuring better jet dynamics with a deeper upstream trough, consistent with 2/3rds of GEFS members, produces an storm total snowfall averaging 7" or greater for most of Vermont and northern New York assuming a 10:1 ratio, which may be a reasonable first guess. Keep in mind there is an unusually large discrepancy between global model camps right now. The EPS continues to show little or no phasing of the southern and northern stream systems that leads to only a light snowfall during about the same timeframe.
Even within the GEFS, subtle differences in storm track make a massive difference in snowfall footprints and precipitation type such as cold rain versus wet snow. Overall, while forecast confidence on a significant event is low at this time, confidence of some precipitation is high and we can expect a further increasing trend in PoPs, now mainly in the 50- 70% range between 2 AM and 2 PM Saturday. Beyond this potential system, we may see another reinforcing shot of unseasonably cold air for Sunday; if so, some more snow showers could be expected. Then Monday through Tuesday the upper level pattern will feature meridional flow with western US troughing, signaling a return to our regularly scheduled above normal temperatures as soon as Tuesday with potential wet weather by midweek.
AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Through 06Z Wednesday...Although most terminals are currently MVFR this evening, variable flight categories will be possible, especially early in the TAF period as scattered snow showers affect the region. Overall, expect MVFR to continue to prevail, though VFR at KPBG, and IFR more likely at KEFK and KMPV. Given variability of observations over the past few hours, have utilized TEMPO groups at most sites through 08z-10z. Outside of snow showers, a mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings will persist until around 12Z when most terminals should trend towards VFR. Winds overnight will generally be less than 10 knots from the west, becoming gusty after 15Z.
Outlook...
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR and IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Likely SHSN.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
Troy
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:21 AM EDT 4.11 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:43 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 06:58 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 07:47 AM EDT 0.76 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:29 PM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 01:44 PM EDT 5.31 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:06 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 08:36 PM EDT 0.49 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:21 AM EDT 4.11 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:43 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 06:58 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 07:47 AM EDT 0.76 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:29 PM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 01:44 PM EDT 5.31 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:06 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 08:36 PM EDT 0.49 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Troy, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet
12 am |
3.7 |
1 am |
4.1 |
2 am |
4 |
3 am |
3.5 |
4 am |
2.9 |
5 am |
2.4 |
6 am |
1.8 |
7 am |
1 |
8 am |
0.8 |
9 am |
1.4 |
10 am |
2.6 |
11 am |
3.7 |
12 pm |
4.6 |
1 pm |
5.1 |
2 pm |
5.3 |
3 pm |
4.8 |
4 pm |
4.1 |
5 pm |
3.4 |
6 pm |
2.6 |
7 pm |
1.6 |
8 pm |
0.7 |
9 pm |
0.6 |
10 pm |
1.3 |
11 pm |
2.2 |
Albany
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:13 AM EDT 4.11 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:43 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 06:59 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 07:37 AM EDT 0.76 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:29 PM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 01:36 PM EDT 5.31 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:06 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 08:26 PM EDT 0.49 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:13 AM EDT 4.11 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:43 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 06:59 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 07:37 AM EDT 0.76 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:29 PM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 01:36 PM EDT 5.31 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:06 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 08:26 PM EDT 0.49 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Albany, New York, Tide feet
12 am |
3.7 |
1 am |
4.1 |
2 am |
3.9 |
3 am |
3.4 |
4 am |
2.8 |
5 am |
2.3 |
6 am |
1.6 |
7 am |
0.9 |
8 am |
0.8 |
9 am |
1.6 |
10 am |
2.8 |
11 am |
3.9 |
12 pm |
4.7 |
1 pm |
5.2 |
2 pm |
5.3 |
3 pm |
4.7 |
4 pm |
4 |
5 pm |
3.3 |
6 pm |
2.5 |
7 pm |
1.4 |
8 pm |
0.6 |
9 pm |
0.6 |
10 pm |
1.4 |
11 pm |
2.3 |
Burlington, VT,
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