Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Necedah, WI
March 19, 2024 5:24 AM CDT (10:24 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:01 AM Sunset 7:12 PM Moonrise 12:33 PM Moonset 3:55 AM |
Area Discussion for - La Crosse, WI
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FXUS63 KARX 190805 AFDARX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 305 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Elevated Fire Weather Conditions through Wednesday; still quite dry east of the Mississippi River Thursday.
- Accumulating snow continues to look likely from Thursday night into Friday (70-100%). This could result in travel impacts for Friday morning.
- From this weekend into early next week, still a lot of uncertainty related to storm track, temperatures, precipitation types, and amounts, but could be an impactful storm.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 305 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Today - Thursday:
Clouds will fill into the area through the morning and the coverage will decrease by the afternoon resulting in mostly clear skies through Wednesday afternoon. Southwest flow aloft will allow for broad WAA to be in the area for Tuesday allowing temperatures to be the warmest of the forecast period with values ranging from the mid 40s up towards north central Wisconsin, to the low to mid 50s across much of the forecast area. Winds on Tuesday will be quite gusty with gusts being between 25mph and 35mph. A cold front will then move through the area on Tuesday allowing for northwest flow aloft to be in place. This will bring CAA and continued dry conditions to the area.
Thursday night into Friday:
Guidance continues to support a clipper system coming down from Canada and bringing with it the chance of seeing accumulating snow.
This system still has a lot of uncertainty with it in regards to how fast the clipper moves through and where the main band of snow sets up. There are other details to monitor such as the snow ratio and PWAT values which could in turn lower or raise the forecasted snow amounts. Now there is good agreement with what the NAM is beginning to show with a heavier band of snow moving through some portion of the forecast area with other models, however, when comparing this to the EC and GFS, the heaviest snowfall area is further north compared to these two.
Current guidance does have PWAT values between 0.4" and 0.6" which indicates that there will be a decent bit of moisture as this clipper moves through, which could help increases the snow amounts. QPF values could decrease if the clipper moves through the area quicker. With all the aforementioned scenarios, current forecasted snow amounts in the 25th and 75th percentiles range from 3" to 7" across much of the forecast area. Overall there is good agreement on a clipper impacting the region Thursday night into Friday and producing accumulating snow. Where the heaviest snow band sets up and how much snow we get is still uncertain.
Saturday through early next week:
After this clipper moves out, shortwave ridging returns for Saturday into Sunday before the next potential storm arrives. Guidance continues to show a low moving off the Rockies and into the region on Sunday and bringing back another chance of accumulating snow.
Just like the Thursday night storm, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty with this storm. Similar to the Thursday storm, there is some broad WAA ahead of the arrival of the storm. This could indicate that precipitation could start out as rain before changing to snow, as northwest flow would eventually be in place. When looking at the ensembles, there is about a 50/50 split in a drier/wetter solution than the ensemble mean. We will continue to monitor to both storms as they get closer. Stay tuned for further updates as new guidance comes into the frame in the coming days.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 950 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
VFR conditions are forecast for the TAF period, though low VFR ceilings creep into southeast Minnesota and central Wisconsin early in the morning before lifting. Southwesterly winds increase overnight, though LLWS is now expected at both valley and higher elevation sites through 10-12Z. A front sweeps through early in the morning and causes winds to shift to the northwest for the daytime hours and increase to 15-20G20-30kts by the afternoon.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 305 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Elevated Fire Weather Conditions through Wednesday and through Thursday east of the Mississippi River
Gusty northwest winds 25mph to 35mph Tuesday with high temperatures 5F to 8F above normal and 30-40% relative humidities. Drier for Wednesday and still breezy with winds 15mph to 25mph and cooler temperatures, but lower relative humidity values between 15% and 25%. The dry conditions continue through Thursday east of the Mississippi Valley with relative humidities as low as 15 to 25%.
Drought areas with dry grasses will be susceptible to the spread of fires due to the winds each day.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 305 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Elevated Fire Weather Conditions through Wednesday; still quite dry east of the Mississippi River Thursday.
- Accumulating snow continues to look likely from Thursday night into Friday (70-100%). This could result in travel impacts for Friday morning.
- From this weekend into early next week, still a lot of uncertainty related to storm track, temperatures, precipitation types, and amounts, but could be an impactful storm.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 305 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Today - Thursday:
Clouds will fill into the area through the morning and the coverage will decrease by the afternoon resulting in mostly clear skies through Wednesday afternoon. Southwest flow aloft will allow for broad WAA to be in the area for Tuesday allowing temperatures to be the warmest of the forecast period with values ranging from the mid 40s up towards north central Wisconsin, to the low to mid 50s across much of the forecast area. Winds on Tuesday will be quite gusty with gusts being between 25mph and 35mph. A cold front will then move through the area on Tuesday allowing for northwest flow aloft to be in place. This will bring CAA and continued dry conditions to the area.
Thursday night into Friday:
Guidance continues to support a clipper system coming down from Canada and bringing with it the chance of seeing accumulating snow.
This system still has a lot of uncertainty with it in regards to how fast the clipper moves through and where the main band of snow sets up. There are other details to monitor such as the snow ratio and PWAT values which could in turn lower or raise the forecasted snow amounts. Now there is good agreement with what the NAM is beginning to show with a heavier band of snow moving through some portion of the forecast area with other models, however, when comparing this to the EC and GFS, the heaviest snowfall area is further north compared to these two.
Current guidance does have PWAT values between 0.4" and 0.6" which indicates that there will be a decent bit of moisture as this clipper moves through, which could help increases the snow amounts. QPF values could decrease if the clipper moves through the area quicker. With all the aforementioned scenarios, current forecasted snow amounts in the 25th and 75th percentiles range from 3" to 7" across much of the forecast area. Overall there is good agreement on a clipper impacting the region Thursday night into Friday and producing accumulating snow. Where the heaviest snow band sets up and how much snow we get is still uncertain.
Saturday through early next week:
After this clipper moves out, shortwave ridging returns for Saturday into Sunday before the next potential storm arrives. Guidance continues to show a low moving off the Rockies and into the region on Sunday and bringing back another chance of accumulating snow.
Just like the Thursday night storm, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty with this storm. Similar to the Thursday storm, there is some broad WAA ahead of the arrival of the storm. This could indicate that precipitation could start out as rain before changing to snow, as northwest flow would eventually be in place. When looking at the ensembles, there is about a 50/50 split in a drier/wetter solution than the ensemble mean. We will continue to monitor to both storms as they get closer. Stay tuned for further updates as new guidance comes into the frame in the coming days.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 950 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
VFR conditions are forecast for the TAF period, though low VFR ceilings creep into southeast Minnesota and central Wisconsin early in the morning before lifting. Southwesterly winds increase overnight, though LLWS is now expected at both valley and higher elevation sites through 10-12Z. A front sweeps through early in the morning and causes winds to shift to the northwest for the daytime hours and increase to 15-20G20-30kts by the afternoon.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 305 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Elevated Fire Weather Conditions through Wednesday and through Thursday east of the Mississippi River
Gusty northwest winds 25mph to 35mph Tuesday with high temperatures 5F to 8F above normal and 30-40% relative humidities. Drier for Wednesday and still breezy with winds 15mph to 25mph and cooler temperatures, but lower relative humidity values between 15% and 25%. The dry conditions continue through Thursday east of the Mississippi Valley with relative humidities as low as 15 to 25%.
Drought areas with dry grasses will be susceptible to the spread of fires due to the winds each day.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KVOK VOLK FIELD,WI | 10 sm | 29 min | SW 09 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 32°F | 9°F | 37% | 29.62 |
La Crosse, WI,
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