Thursday, March23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Necedah, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 7:17PM Thursday March 23, 2017 9:16 PM CDT (02:16 UTC) Moonrise 3:26AMMoonset 1:33PM Illumination 13% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Necedah, WI
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location: 43.93, -90.06     debug


Area Discussion for - La Crosse, WI
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Fxus63 karx 232350
afdarx
area forecast discussion
national weather service la crosse wi
650 pm cdt Thu mar 23 2017

Update
Issued at 650 pm cdt Thu mar 23 2017
second severe weather event, and it's not even april yet. As
alluded to yesterday, was a bit wary of the potential for some
sneaky stronger convection across the area late this afternoon,
and the atmosphere delivered, with reports of quarter to even golf
ball hail over parts of northeast ia into grant county, wi. The
higher instability axis responsible for the "fun" continues to
rapidly transit northward on the leading edge of notable deep
layer moisture advection, with more of a showery band working back
into the region from northwestern ia within an axis of weak but
developing frontogenetic ascent.

Per trends the past 6 hours, starting to wonder if the more steady
rain band later tonight might end up a bit farther south than
currently advertised, with near-term guidance trends shifting in
this direction. Even the farther north nam/gem solutions (at least
from a QPF perspective) indicate the strongest deep layer
frontogenetic response down toward the i-90 corridor or just
slightly north, suggestive that areas north of i-94 may tend to
end up more on the drier side of the fgen downward branch
circulation. Have trended our forecast more in the southern camp
of solutions for later tonight, with just a small risk for
isolated thunder given remnant 100-200 j/kg elevated CAPE in the
axis of strongest lift along the surface/elevated warm front.

Don't envision any severe potential from any overnight storms -
thankfully.

Short term (this evening through Friday)
issued at 321 pm cdt Thu mar 23 2017
at 3 pm, a small area of showers and scattered thunderstorms were
moving east across northeast iowa and along the minnesota/iowa
border. This was developing along an elevated warm front. There
has been a few reports of hail to around 1 inch in diameter. In
addition with very dry air below the cloud bases, some of the
showers have been producing wind gusts up to 40 mph.

From tonight into Friday, a cold front will slowly sink southward
through the forecast area. Moderate 850 mb moisture transport will
raise the precipitable water values to around 1.25 range. This is
around 3 standard deviations above normal. With most unstable
capes up to 250 j/kg, there will be a possibility for isolated to
scattered thunderstorms. The highest capes and the best 0-6 km
shear will be this evening and this could result in the potential
for some hail up to 1 inch in diameter. Rainfall amounts along
and north of interstate 90 will range from 1 to 2 inches.

Long term (Friday night through Thursday)
issued at 321 pm cdt Thu mar 23 2017
from Friday night into Saturday morning, a cold front will move
slowly south across the area. Southerly winds ahead of an
approaching upper level low will bring a narrow band of gulf of
mexico moisture northward into the region and this moisture will
pool along this front. Precipitable water values will range from
an inch to 1.25 inches. This 2.5 to 3 standard deviations above
normal. Fortunately, the moisture transport will be weak to
moderate, the most unstable capes are generally less than
150 j/kg, and there is generally weak convergence along this
front. This will keep the hourly rainfall rates under control.

Rainfall totals during this time frame will range from a half to
1 inch. The heaviest rain will be found along and south of the
interstate 90 corridor. Meanwhile further north, there are some
questions on where the northern extent of this precipitation will
be located. This could present some issues for the potential of
light freezing rain in north central wisconsin. However with this
said, confidence remains low that this will even occur.

From Saturday afternoon into Monday, a slow moving upper level low
pressure area will move south and southeast of the forecast area.

Wrap around moisture will keep a chance of showers into the
forecast area. Additional rainfall amounts will be less than a
tenth of an inch.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening)
issued at 650 pm cdt Thu mar 23 2017
batch of showers and thunderstorms continues to exit the area, but
with another round of lighter showers likely just skirting
lse/rst the next few hours. Current ifr to MVFR ceilings should
lift back toVFR levels through the evening hours, before lowering
back to MVFR and eventually ifr late tonight into Friday as
periods of rain develop along a warm front draped over the region.

A period of low level wind shear also appears likely for all
areas roughly 04z-08z with a strong low level jet just off the
deck, but with overall surface winds shifting from southeast to
north/northeast tonight/Friday as the warm front stalls across the
area.

Hydrology Tonight through Saturday
issued at 321 pm cdt Thu mar 23 2017
like the past couple of days, it continues to look like anywhere
from a half to 1.50 inches of rain will fall across the area from
tonight through Saturday. There may be even a few locations that
could potentially see rainfall totals up to 2 inches. With this
rain falling over over a long duration, only in bank rises are
currently expected for area streams and rivers.

Arx watches/warnings/advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Ia... None.

Short term... Boyne
long term... Boyne
aviation... Lawrence
hydrology... Boyne


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Volk / Camp Douglas, WI11 mi78 minSE 1110.00 miOvercast38°F33°F82%1013.7 hPa

Wind History from VOK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE6SE6--SE9SE10SE9E7E9E8SE10SE8SE11SE11SE9
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1 day agoN7NE6N8N6N4NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmE4E7E1034SE8E8S9SE5SE9E8SE7SE6E6
2 days agoW3W4CalmW10W8W9W9W8W9NW7NW11NW13
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for La Crosse, WI (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station La Crosse, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.