Friday, February22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Necedah, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 5:38PM Friday February 22, 2019 5:54 AM CST (11:54 UTC) Moonrise 9:38PMMoonset 8:49AM Illumination 90% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Necedah, WI
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location: 43.93, -90.06     debug


Area Discussion for - La Crosse, WI
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Fxus63 karx 221141
afdarx
area forecast discussion
national weather service la crosse wi
541 am cst Fri feb 22 2019

Short term (today through Sunday)
issued at 230 am cst Fri feb 22 2019
weather impacts are two fold this weekend: 1) tonight-early sat,
wintry mix with accumulations. Potential for winter weather adv 2)
the main event with winter storm moving in Sat evening through sun
morning.

First, the appetizer...

a lot of chatter - and rightly so - about the
winter storm for the weekend, but there is a smaller feature that
could will bring its own share of winter weather impacts that should
not be overlooked later tonight Sat morning.

A piece of upper level energy gets kicked out of the main trough
over the southern plains (the aforementioned winter storm), spinning
through the region roughly from 06-18z sat. Some low level warming
coupled with some help from a 300 mb jet streak will aid in the
lift. Models in good agreement with focusing pcpn chances with the
frontogenetic forcing, although where the most favorable banding
sets up varies model to model. There is some consensus with
generally favoring south of i-90, gradually working into central wi.

Nam leans more north, the GFS more south, while the rap hrrr lie
sort of in between. Meanwhile the experimental hrrr has an
interesting west-east running convective-like band situated on i-90
by 06z. Low level moisture transport will feed the frontogenetic
region, wherever it sets up. As for that, confidence isn't high, but
will lean the pops toward the short term models for now, adjusting
as the layout of the band(s) become more evident.

Warm air will bring pcpn types into question with rain, wintry mix
and snow all looking likely. Detailing that gets tricky. Plus, sref
suggests 1 4 to 1 2 liquid possible with this shortwave tonight.

Some of that will go into snow (narrow band - a few inches?), some
icing, and some just rain. This looks ripe for a winter weather
advisory from 06-15z Sat - and per coordination with surrounding
offices, will issue for a small piece of northeast ia southwest wi
for snow. With confidence on the lower-side north of there, will let
next shift and short term models add more details (and potential
expansion).

On to the main course...

models remain in lockstep with lifting an upper level shortwave
trough out of the desert southwest this afternoon, closing it off
and getting a negative tilt as it moves over the great lakes late
sat night. Pretty good agreement between the variety of models with
the track strength (minor differences) of the associated sfc low,
sliding it over southeast wi by 06z sun, quickly exiting northeast
later Sun morning. Strong, deep QG convergence sweeps through from
00-06z Sun with left exit region of 300 mb jet further deepening the
lift. Dynamic, strong but quick moving system. Current forecast
track would run the deformation region straight through the local
area, with latest NAM a bit south compared to the others.

For pcpn type, warm air will result in generally rain at onset,
shifting to snow from west to east through the night. A transition
of wintry mix also looks likely. Models hinting at some loss of ice,
but that shouldn't be a problem in the deformation region.

For amounts, pws as much as 1 inch wrapping into this system with
anomalies from +1 to +2 locally. -epv running atop the sloping
frontogenetic forcing suggests enhanced banding will occur. Dgz
fairly small and well a loft and snow:liquid ratios likely close to
climatology (13:1). That said, lift is very strong and 2 inch per hour
rates in the evening is progged in cobb output (gfs and nam). Given
the forcing, that doesn't look unreasonable. It's going to come
down fast and accumulate very quickly - mostly in a 00-09 12z time
frame.

Winds are going to be factor too, increasing overnight Sat and
staying strong and gusty through Sunday (40-50 mph). Despite what
should be a more wet snow, blowing and drifting will occur with
impacts to vsbys (significant?) - especially northeast ia southeast
mn. Near blizzard (blizzard?) conditions could occur. Will hold with
the watch for now.

Long term (Monday through Thursday)
issued at 330 am cst Fri feb 22 2019
a break from the snow? Maybe? Starting to look like it as the ec and
gfs favor a mostly zonal flow a loft of the new work week. Some
stretched out, elongated shortwave energy could bring some snow
chances to the region later Tue into wed, with the ec much less in
qpf snow potential compared to the gfs. Certainly nothing like the
recent winter storms we have had to deal with the past couple weeks.

Relatively cold start to the new work week with canadian air
dropping southward post the weekend storm. Doesn't stick around long
as the upper level flow GOES more west-east, moderating temps.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Saturday morning)
issued at 541 am cst Fri feb 22 2019
some patchy MVFR visibilities early this morning will give way toVFR
conditions for much of today into this evening. Light snow or
possibly a wintry mix will move into the area overnight tonight
with MVFR to ifr conditions developing.

Arx watches warnings advisories
Wi... Winter storm watch from Saturday evening through Sunday
afternoon for wiz017-029-032>034-041.

Winter weather advisory from midnight tonight to 9 am cst
Saturday for wiz061.

Mn... Winter storm watch from Saturday evening through Sunday
afternoon for mnz079-086>088-094>096.

Ia... Winter storm watch from Saturday evening through Sunday
afternoon for iaz008>010-018-019.

Winter weather advisory from midnight tonight to 9 am cst
Saturday for iaz029-030.

Short term... Rieck
long term... .Rieck
aviation... Jm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Volk / Camp Douglas, WI11 mi58 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds10°F8°F96%1031.6 hPa

Wind History from VOK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5W3W12W11W11W9NW10W8W11W8W7W7W3CalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmW3W3NW4E3Calm
1 day agoE12E16E17
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----E8E8CalmCalmSW10
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmE3S4SE3SE4CalmCalmCalmSE3E4E4SE7E5E5E8E9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for La Crosse, WI (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station La Crosse, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.