Sunrise 5:47 AM   Sunset 7:53 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 7:39 AM

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FXUS63 KUNR 270833 AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 233 AM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated showers/storms possible this morning and afternoon, more widespread precipitation moves in this evening through Sunday afternoon.

- More seasonable temperatures move in early next week, along with near daily chances for showers/storms



DISCUSSION
(Today Through Friday)
Issued at 134 AM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Current Water Vapor and upper air models show first shortwave over eastern SD into MN, while second wave sits over the four corners region. At the surface, low pressure sits over the SD/MN border, with another low over southwestern WY. Low clouds cover much of the western SD plains. Temperatures currently sit in the 40s across the forecast area this morning.

Out ahead of the next wave, CAMs hint at isolated showers possible later this morning and afternoon across the western South Dakota plains, while bulk of expected precipitation moves in this evening into Sunday as the upper trough swings into NE eventually eastern SD. Ensembles continue to prog the wave a bit more to the east, highlighting a sharp cutoff on QPF potential, with northwestern SD remaining mostly dry. The better forcing continues to be east and south of our forecast area, however will be enough lift to see widespread precipitation. Areas east and south of Rapid City may see amounts 0.25-0.75 inches of rainfall.
Precipitation tapers off from west to east Sunday afternoon.

Behind this weekend system, a more active near-zonal flow sets up over the region, bringing chances for daily showers/storms. Weak disturbance is progged to track north of the forecast Monday evening into Tuesday. Chances for showers and storms will be possible mainly over the Black Hills and northwestern SD. Weak instability will keep severe chances low through mid-week.
Deterministic models become more divergent on the overall pattern later in the week, however still point to potential for active weather in the region.



AVIATION
(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued At 1005 PM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024

MVFR cigs will spread west across the SD plains and into NE WY by Sat morning. MVFR cigs will linger most of the day Sat on the SD plains, with some improvement to VFR possible. Isolated showers are also possible. Widespread MVFR/IFR conds are expected Sat night on the SD plains as a low pressure system crosses the region and rain develops.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...None.
WY...None.

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Rapid City, SD,