Sunrise 5:47 AM   Sunset 7:30 PM Moonrise 3:19 PM   Moonset 4:17 AM

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ANZ152 Coastal Waters From Port Clyde, Me To Cape Elizabeth, Me Out 25 Nm- 1007 Am Edt Fri Apr 19 2024
Rest of today - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Tonight - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Sat - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Patchy fog in the morning. Rain in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning. Sat night - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Sun - W winds around 10 kt, becoming sw with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Sun night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Mon - W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Mon night - NW winds around 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Tue - SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Tue night - S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers after midnight.

ANZ100 1007 Am Edt Fri Apr 19 2024
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm high pressure remains in the gulf of maine today, exiting overnight into Saturday morning this will keep a general onshore flow and the potential for low clouds and fog to develop into early Saturday. A weak cold front associated with canadian low pressure crosses the waters on Saturday. High pressure will then build over the waters into early next week before low pressure approaches the region toward mid-week.

FXUS61 KGYX 191414 AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1014 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
Today will feature onshore winds ahead of a cold front passage tonight into Saturday morning. Showers form along the front, with more widespread rain developing towards the coast early Saturday morning. As the front exits conditions become breezy but drier. Quiet, mild, and dry weather remains through early next week. Low pressure approaches the region toward mid- week, potentially bringing the next chance for widespread rain.

NEAR TERM /TODAY/
1015 AM Update...Minor tweaks to wind/gust, sky, temperature, and dew point trends through today with latest hires guidance and observations. Looking to satellite analysis this morning, mixed decks in the 5-15 kft range continue to drift over our area, diminishing in coverage with time as daytime heating gets underway. This will in turn continue to develop a light southerly breeze which will moderate temperature trends.

645 AM Update...Not many changes here but refreshing forecast w/ latest obs. There remains some uncertainty when showers begin later; late afternoon or holding until later in the evening.
Something to look for in morning guidance. Deeper moisture for more widespread showers won't arrive until the evening, but could see a couple isolated showers ahead of this make their way over terrain into western NH late this afternoon.

Previous discussion...
Just a few remaining early morning sprinkles as upper level vort pulls east through the morning. Mid level moisture hangs around to make for a mostly cloudy start of the day. Can see some breaks working in late, but will see gradual increase again this evening ahead of incoming cold front.

Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler today, but much warmer compared to Thursday across SW NH where the difference may be just shy of 20 degrees warmer. Cooler spots today will be in the higher terrain, as well as the coast. Here, cooler onshore return flow from exiting high will keep highs topping in the upper 40s to around 50.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
There has been a general increase in QPF/rain coverage for late tonight into early Sat morning, particularly along the coast.
As the cold front advances, will see showers increase mid evening and spread across the CWA But, many short term and now global models depict precip shield blossoming over central New England later as front approaches the interior and coast. There has been an ever so slight slowing trend in ensembles bringing around a quarter inch QPF to the area before noon. This trend hugs the coast, but can't rule out some marginal rainfall rates at some point into the Saturday morning timeframe for southern NH through the Midcoast of Maine.

Saturday isn't done yet...Oh the heels of the front departure, expect some rather quick thinning of clouds and warming/drying at the surface as a result. Temps across the coast and interior to SW NH could warm readily towards 60 by early afternoon. Deep mixing with cold temps aloft should also allow for surface wind gusts to pick up where lapse rates steepen, possibly 30 to 40 mph.

To add to this, moisture around 850mb remains. So, the potential for shallow convection is there for much of the area Sat afternoon. Deeper showers that can overcome the dry air could produce graupel given the lower freezing levels behind the cold front and instability. Confidence is still low on coverage of showers and potential QPF Sat afternoon given the inverted V sounding below this moist layer.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Overview: The 500 mb pattern shows a broad trough over the region through the weekend into early next week, however dry air looks to dominate overhead at the same time so not much in the way of precipitation is expected. A more amplified trough looks to coincide with a cold front midweek, which could be our next chance of widespread rain.

Sunday will be very similar to Saturday temperature wise, as we start cold and clear, then continued broad troughing overhead and southwesterly upper level flow will allow for some diurnal cloud cover that will cap highs in the upper 50s and 40s from south to north respectively. Upper flow then shifts westerly and dries out the column Sunday night making for another good looking radiational cooling night that will drop temperatures back into the 30s. We will begin a warming trend on Monday as upper flow becomes more zonal and skies stay mostly clear. A cold front may dip across the international border briefly, but with such a dry air mass aloft it wouldn't amount to more than a few extra clouds across the north. Highs will be back in the upper 50s and low 60s across the south, but more 40s up north.
Clear skies will continue the trend of lows in the 30s south of the mountains and upper 20s for northern zones that won't be getting as warm during the day.

Surface low pressure looks to ride the aforementioned frontal boundary into the region toward midweek. This would mean increasing clouds on Tuesday, but with southwesterly flow aloft the warming trend would continue and result in many areas south of the mountains seeing 60s and even upper 50s to the north.
Seabreezes will continue to keep coastal areas in the 50s as well. A deeper upper trough and cold front looks to cross Wedensday bringing our next chance for widespread rain. Euro and GFS ensembles have only 0.25 to 0.5" at the moment so nothing drenching, but will continue to keep an eye on trends as this is occuring at the tail end of the extended forecast period and uncertainty in the pattern setup is at its usual high.

AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Short Term...VFR today with ceilings increasing during the afternoon, before lowering towards MVFR tonight. Showers will overspread the area this evening, with more in the way of steady rain towards coastal terminals through Saturday morning.
This will likely result in a period of MVFR/IFR. Conditions improve by Sat afternoon to VFR, but WNW winds will be gusty, perhaps up to 30 kt at times. There is also potential for SHRA development during the afternoon which may contain GS.

Long Term...VFR prevails from Sunday through Tuesday, before ceilings begin to lower again Tuesday night. Prevailing winds will be westerly through Monday, then shifting southerly on Tuesday.

MARINE
Short Term...Conditions remain below SCA through Saturday, but could see some gusts to 25 kt tonight as cold front passes over the waters Sat morning. Low level moisture may also promote plumes of fog to develop causing low vis today in onshore flow.
Waves 2 to 3 ft.

Long Term...Westerly winds prevail with daily seabreezes possible through Monday, before shifting to southerly on Tuesday. Wind gusts and seas are expected to stay below criteria hazardous to small craft through this time.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

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Back River
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Fri -- 03:26 AM EDT     1.65 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:17 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:41 AM EDT     8.67 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:56 PM EDT     1.14 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:12 PM EDT     8.53 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Back River, Maine, Tide feet

Sheepscot River (off Barter Island)
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Fri -- 01:16 AM EDT     -0.84 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 03:53 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:17 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:32 AM EDT     0.44 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:03 AM EDT     0.36 knots Min Flood
Fri -- 08:06 AM EDT     0.39 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 09:46 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:27 PM EDT     -0.97 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 03:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:19 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:09 PM EDT     0.51 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 07:17 PM EDT     0.48 knots Min Flood
Fri -- 07:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:33 PM EDT     0.52 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 10:26 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Sheepscot River (off Barter Island), Maine Current, knots

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