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FXUS61 KBTV 072333 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 733 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

SYNOPSIS
Idyllic spring weather is expected today. Early tomorrow morning, showers and embedded thunderstorms will return to the forecast. Following a cold frontal passage, we will observe cool temperatures struggling to rise above 60 over the weekend with lingering shower chances. Friday appears most likely to be the wettest day. Temperatures will begin to moderate at the start of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 654 PM EDT Tuesday...Forecast is well on track this evening with minimal updates needed. One slight tweak was to increase winds on Lake Champlain for the next couple of hours before these winds drop off into the late evening. Also adjusted cloud cover slightly to account for some high clouds making their way across the forecast area. Cloud coverage is still expected to increase throughout the night. Temperatures currently in the 60s and 70s will fall into the 40s for most by early tomorrow morning. Previous discussion below:

Previous discussion...It doesn't get much better than today with respect to weather. The 60s and 70s under sunshine and light north to northwest flow and low relative humidity is tough to beat. High pressure will shift offshore tonight, and we'll see winds become southeast. This will keep temperatures from falling quite as much as last night in addition to increasing high clouds, mainly in the 40s to lower 50s, perhaps some spot upper 30s in far eastern Vermont.

Pre-dawn into early Wednesday a warm front will move northeast ahead of a compact surface low and an impressive-for-spring upper jet of 120 knots at 250hPa. Strong frontal forcing and elevated instability of 300-500 J/kg will produce widespread moderate rain with embedded thunderstorms and locally heavy downpours focused across the Adirondacks and the southern half of Vermont. Mid-morning into early afternoon, there will be a pocket of dry air that filters into the region, and this will reduce shower activity for a time.

The point where models diverge is just how much dry air will be in place by Wednesday afternoon. On one hand, dry air could allow stronger surface heating and better near surface lapse rates in conjunction with 7-7.5 C lapse rates due to cool mid- level conditions associated with an upper trough pivoting east.
If it's too dry though, only isolated convection will be able to form and entrainment could prevent activity from getting too strong. On the other hand, if it's too wet, surface temperatures will not become strong enough to break a subtle warm layer around 600 hPa, but there would be more widespread precipitation. Somewhere in between those two hands could be an active convective day due to shear on the order of 0-6 km shear at 40-50 knots. It's a highly conditional potential for stronger storms reliant on factors coming together just right, and thus, the Storm Prediction Centers marginal risk outlook (Level 1 of 5) appears just right. If we can manage to destabilize, some strong storms capable of gusty winds and hail will be possible, mainly along the southern tier of our forecast area along the Adirondacks and south-central Vermont.

A cold front will descend southwards overnight, with perhaps a few scattered showers while backside of the upper trough swings southeast before getting stretched out. Cool air behind the front will result in 40s north, and a few 50s south.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 330 PM EDT Tuesday...Low pressure system tracks eastward on Thursday and precipitation will spread northward into our region, with chances continuing to increase during the overnight period into Friday morning. This low will be very slow moving.
It will be a cool daytime period, with a mild overnight with clouds and precipitation in place across our area. Maximum temperatures will range from the upper 50s to lower 60s with minimum temperatures ranging through the 40s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 345 PM EDT Tuesday...More of the same for the extended portion of the forecast with upper level shortwave energy and trough continuing to bring periodic chances for showers from Friday through Monday night. Temperatures will start out cooler than seasonal normals, then trend towards normal by early next week. As previous forecaster mentioned, models continue to show a consistent synoptic signal for a slow moving low pressure system to approach from the southwest and produce isentropic lift in our region. Variations in the storm track provide uncertainty in both timing and intensity of precipitation.
Several members of the GEFS are particularly wet such that the Otter Creek basin- average rainfall during this period could be around an inch; on top of the rainfall from Wednesday, the potential for minor flooding of this river remains low but non- zero. Otherwise, a wider flood threat is not foreseen with lack of tropical moisture or convective, intense precipitation with this system. This consistent wet pattern will lead to some modest rises on area rivers and streams.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Through 00Z Thursday...VFR conditions will largely prevail through the period, with brief MVFR likely. Mainly clear skies this evening will give way increasing mid/high clouds through the overnight before ceilings and visibility trend to MVFR after 12Z as showers move through the region Thursday morning. After 18Z, showers end and conditions should return to VFR for the majority of the remainder of the period, with the exception of KMSS where northeasterly flow will maintain MVFR ceilings.
Towards 00Z some scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible and may briefly reduce conditions to MVFR/IFR as well.
Winds will be light and variable overnight before trending SSE at 5-10kts except locally northeast around 12kt at KMSS.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.

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