Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Port Henry, NY
May 21, 2024 8:27 AM EDT (12:27 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:16 AM Sunset 8:22 PM Moonrise 6:43 PM Moonset 4:04 AM |
Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 211117 AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 717 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024
SYNOPSIS
A few showers and scattered storms are possible across northern New York this morning. More widespread thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into early evening, some of which could be strong to locally severe. Temperatures also warm well into the 80s today and again on Wednesday before cooler temperatures and drier weather return on Friday into Memorial Day weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 700 AM EDT Tuesday...Forecast remains on track. KTYX radar shows a thunderstorm just west of Hammond, NY on the Ontario side. Dew points are a tad lower than modeled, mainly in the 53-57 range this morning so made some minor adjustments. Main message remains on track, i.e. expect isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop mainly after 1 PM. The stronger storms are capable of producing locally damaging wind gusts and small hail. Highs top out in the mid 80s with similar apparent temperatures by late morning before the initiation of the storms. As we have messaged extensively, despite heat index values falling shy of Heat Advisory criteria, the lack of acclimatization means that sensitive groups and those without access to cooling means could be vulnerable to heat risk impacts.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A wide range of temperatures currently exists across the region, depending on the areas that have been able to decouple. Sheltered hollows are in the upper 40s and low 50s while the broad valleys are generally in the 60s.
Temperatures should not lower much farther as boundary layer winds will increase a bit. Fog has developed in a few of the sheltered valleys, but it should be more limited in coverage compared to previous nights. The first round of convection will move into northern New York this morning as part of a warm front type feature. It will bring a few scattered storms as it moves across, but without much diurnal heating, the severe potential is low.
A shortwave will pass through the region later in the day, and by that point, diurnal heating should allow for more vigorous convection to develop. Overall, there have not been many changes from the previous forecast. The biggest change is that the highest CAPE values may no longer reach all the way to the international border, likely due to cloud cover from the morning convection causing more interference with diurnal heating up there. This could cause the area with the highest probability of seeing severe storms to be farther south. However, shear looks to be lower in southern areas so the best overlap between higher CAPE and shear looks to be in between, probably around the latitudes of the central and southern Champlain Valley. Generally, CAPE values should range between 1000-2000J/KG. Guidance like the NAM and NAM 3KM that bring 2000+ J/KG are likely outliers because their forecasted dew points between 65-70 degrees are probably too high, especially since the they have initialized too high dew points upstream. 0-6KM shear will generally be between 25-35 KTS, so combined with the CAPE, there should just be enough ingredients for a marginal risk for severe storms. The storms should mostly be pulse-type though there could be just enough organization for a few bowing features to form. DCAPE values are expected to reach around 1000 J/KG, enhancing the wind threat due to possible downbursts. Overall, the main threat is severe winds with the possibility of some small hail. Convection should dissipate overnight.
Another round of convection is possible on Wednesday, though there is less synoptic scale lifting and shear. Currently, an area of convection should develop over Ontario where there looks to just be enough lift from another weak shortwave. As the storms reach the region, they will outrun this forcing and encounter less favorable conditions. There is a chance of seeing severe storms over northern New York. The SPC put these areas in a marginal risk again. However, the conditions looks less favorable than Tuesday. These storms will weaken as they travel east and they should lose any severe characteristics as they reach Vermont. Wednesday will likely be the hottest day of the year so far, with highs generally ranging between 85-90.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 300 AM EDT Tuesday...Showers and thunderstorms continue into the evening hours on Wednesday. Models depict a pre-frontal trough crossing the area Wednesday evening into the early overnight hours, with a few hundred J/kg of surface-based CAPE helping to fuel the forward motion of any storms that form earlier in the afternoon.
0-6km shear is quite marginal between 15 and 20 kt, so while a stronger storm or two cannot be ruled out, at this time, they are less likely to reach severe criteria. The current Day 2 SPC convective outlook has marginal risk (level 1 of 5) across our far western zones, which seem reasonable given the overall weak shear and unimpressive forcing. PWATs are in the 1.2 to 1.4 inches range, which is in the 90th percentile according to the SPC sounding climatology for the Albany, NY upper air site. While locally heavy downpours are possible with any storm that develop, flooding threat is low given the overall fast moving nature. Temperatures wise, southerly flow means overnight lows will generally be in the mid to upper 60s, with similar dew points making for a rather muggy night.
Winds gusting 15 to 25 mph at times would help it feel more tolerable.
Surface cold front comes through on Thursday with height falls and temperatures aloft falling during the day from west to east. Dew points should fall rather quickly into the 40s and 50s by the morning hours across northern NY, but could stay near 60 across Vermont. As such, the best chance for decent shear to overlap with surface-based instability is across Vermont on Thursday afternoon.
And this is where the forecast indicates better chances for thunderstorms. At this time, while a few stronger storms are possible, they should stay mainly below severe criteria.
Temperatures wise, best probability of low to mid 80s would be across Vermont, with cooler temperatures in the low to mid 70s across northern NY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 300 AM EDT Tuesday...Behind the cold front on Thursday, we get a reprieve from the recent early season heat, with much more seasonable highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s expected on Friday into much of the weekend. While a few showers cannot be ruled out, our region should see mainly dry weather and rather refreshing conditions with dew points in the 40s and 50s. The next chance for more widespread showers and thunderstorms does not arrive until Memorial Day itself but forecast confidence is low this far out.
AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Through 12Z Wednesday...All terminals are currently VFR. Any marginal LLWS is expected to diminish this morning due to better boundary layer mixing. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop by mid day and impact terminals between 17-23z. The strongest storms will bring frequent lightning, brief strong wind gusts as well as heavy downpour. Visibilities could briefly lower to MVFR or even IFR. However, for most of the TAF period, flight categories are expected to stay VFR. Winds are mainly from the south between 5 to 10 kt, except locally higher gusts in thunderstorms.
Outlook...
Wednesday: VFR. Scattered SHRA, Isolated TSRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
CLIMATE
Record High Temperatures:
May 22: KBTV: 93/1977 KMPV: 90/1994 KMSS: 89/1977 KSLK: 91/1911
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
May 22: KBTV: 70/1911 KPBG: 65/1975 KSLK: 63/1921
May 23: KPBG: 65/1964
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 717 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024
SYNOPSIS
A few showers and scattered storms are possible across northern New York this morning. More widespread thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into early evening, some of which could be strong to locally severe. Temperatures also warm well into the 80s today and again on Wednesday before cooler temperatures and drier weather return on Friday into Memorial Day weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 700 AM EDT Tuesday...Forecast remains on track. KTYX radar shows a thunderstorm just west of Hammond, NY on the Ontario side. Dew points are a tad lower than modeled, mainly in the 53-57 range this morning so made some minor adjustments. Main message remains on track, i.e. expect isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop mainly after 1 PM. The stronger storms are capable of producing locally damaging wind gusts and small hail. Highs top out in the mid 80s with similar apparent temperatures by late morning before the initiation of the storms. As we have messaged extensively, despite heat index values falling shy of Heat Advisory criteria, the lack of acclimatization means that sensitive groups and those without access to cooling means could be vulnerable to heat risk impacts.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A wide range of temperatures currently exists across the region, depending on the areas that have been able to decouple. Sheltered hollows are in the upper 40s and low 50s while the broad valleys are generally in the 60s.
Temperatures should not lower much farther as boundary layer winds will increase a bit. Fog has developed in a few of the sheltered valleys, but it should be more limited in coverage compared to previous nights. The first round of convection will move into northern New York this morning as part of a warm front type feature. It will bring a few scattered storms as it moves across, but without much diurnal heating, the severe potential is low.
A shortwave will pass through the region later in the day, and by that point, diurnal heating should allow for more vigorous convection to develop. Overall, there have not been many changes from the previous forecast. The biggest change is that the highest CAPE values may no longer reach all the way to the international border, likely due to cloud cover from the morning convection causing more interference with diurnal heating up there. This could cause the area with the highest probability of seeing severe storms to be farther south. However, shear looks to be lower in southern areas so the best overlap between higher CAPE and shear looks to be in between, probably around the latitudes of the central and southern Champlain Valley. Generally, CAPE values should range between 1000-2000J/KG. Guidance like the NAM and NAM 3KM that bring 2000+ J/KG are likely outliers because their forecasted dew points between 65-70 degrees are probably too high, especially since the they have initialized too high dew points upstream. 0-6KM shear will generally be between 25-35 KTS, so combined with the CAPE, there should just be enough ingredients for a marginal risk for severe storms. The storms should mostly be pulse-type though there could be just enough organization for a few bowing features to form. DCAPE values are expected to reach around 1000 J/KG, enhancing the wind threat due to possible downbursts. Overall, the main threat is severe winds with the possibility of some small hail. Convection should dissipate overnight.
Another round of convection is possible on Wednesday, though there is less synoptic scale lifting and shear. Currently, an area of convection should develop over Ontario where there looks to just be enough lift from another weak shortwave. As the storms reach the region, they will outrun this forcing and encounter less favorable conditions. There is a chance of seeing severe storms over northern New York. The SPC put these areas in a marginal risk again. However, the conditions looks less favorable than Tuesday. These storms will weaken as they travel east and they should lose any severe characteristics as they reach Vermont. Wednesday will likely be the hottest day of the year so far, with highs generally ranging between 85-90.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 300 AM EDT Tuesday...Showers and thunderstorms continue into the evening hours on Wednesday. Models depict a pre-frontal trough crossing the area Wednesday evening into the early overnight hours, with a few hundred J/kg of surface-based CAPE helping to fuel the forward motion of any storms that form earlier in the afternoon.
0-6km shear is quite marginal between 15 and 20 kt, so while a stronger storm or two cannot be ruled out, at this time, they are less likely to reach severe criteria. The current Day 2 SPC convective outlook has marginal risk (level 1 of 5) across our far western zones, which seem reasonable given the overall weak shear and unimpressive forcing. PWATs are in the 1.2 to 1.4 inches range, which is in the 90th percentile according to the SPC sounding climatology for the Albany, NY upper air site. While locally heavy downpours are possible with any storm that develop, flooding threat is low given the overall fast moving nature. Temperatures wise, southerly flow means overnight lows will generally be in the mid to upper 60s, with similar dew points making for a rather muggy night.
Winds gusting 15 to 25 mph at times would help it feel more tolerable.
Surface cold front comes through on Thursday with height falls and temperatures aloft falling during the day from west to east. Dew points should fall rather quickly into the 40s and 50s by the morning hours across northern NY, but could stay near 60 across Vermont. As such, the best chance for decent shear to overlap with surface-based instability is across Vermont on Thursday afternoon.
And this is where the forecast indicates better chances for thunderstorms. At this time, while a few stronger storms are possible, they should stay mainly below severe criteria.
Temperatures wise, best probability of low to mid 80s would be across Vermont, with cooler temperatures in the low to mid 70s across northern NY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 300 AM EDT Tuesday...Behind the cold front on Thursday, we get a reprieve from the recent early season heat, with much more seasonable highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s expected on Friday into much of the weekend. While a few showers cannot be ruled out, our region should see mainly dry weather and rather refreshing conditions with dew points in the 40s and 50s. The next chance for more widespread showers and thunderstorms does not arrive until Memorial Day itself but forecast confidence is low this far out.
AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Through 12Z Wednesday...All terminals are currently VFR. Any marginal LLWS is expected to diminish this morning due to better boundary layer mixing. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop by mid day and impact terminals between 17-23z. The strongest storms will bring frequent lightning, brief strong wind gusts as well as heavy downpour. Visibilities could briefly lower to MVFR or even IFR. However, for most of the TAF period, flight categories are expected to stay VFR. Winds are mainly from the south between 5 to 10 kt, except locally higher gusts in thunderstorms.
Outlook...
Wednesday: VFR. Scattered SHRA, Isolated TSRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
CLIMATE
Record High Temperatures:
May 22: KBTV: 93/1977 KMPV: 90/1994 KMSS: 89/1977 KSLK: 91/1911
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
May 22: KBTV: 70/1911 KPBG: 65/1975 KSLK: 63/1921
May 23: KPBG: 65/1964
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.
Troy
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:07 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 04:31 AM EDT 5.33 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:26 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 11:13 AM EDT 0.41 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:43 PM EDT 4.29 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:40 PM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 08:17 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 11:21 PM EDT 0.35 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:07 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 04:31 AM EDT 5.33 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:26 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 11:13 AM EDT 0.41 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:43 PM EDT 4.29 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:40 PM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 08:17 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 11:21 PM EDT 0.35 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Troy, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.2 |
| 1 am |
| 2.6 |
| 2 am |
| 3.8 |
| 3 am |
| 4.7 |
| 4 am |
| 5.2 |
| 5 am |
| 5.3 |
| 6 am |
| 4.6 |
| 7 am |
| 3.7 |
| 8 am |
| 2.9 |
| 9 am |
| 2 |
| 10 am |
| 1.1 |
| 11 am |
| 0.4 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.8 |
| 3 pm |
| 3.6 |
| 4 pm |
| 4.1 |
| 5 pm |
| 4.3 |
| 6 pm |
| 3.8 |
| 7 pm |
| 3 |
| 8 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 10 pm |
| 1 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.4 |
Albany
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:08 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 04:23 AM EDT 5.33 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:26 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 11:03 AM EDT 0.41 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:35 PM EDT 4.29 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:40 PM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 08:17 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 11:11 PM EDT 0.35 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:08 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 04:23 AM EDT 5.33 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:26 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 11:03 AM EDT 0.41 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:35 PM EDT 4.29 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:40 PM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 08:17 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 11:11 PM EDT 0.35 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Albany, New York, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.4 |
| 1 am |
| 2.8 |
| 2 am |
| 3.9 |
| 3 am |
| 4.8 |
| 4 am |
| 5.3 |
| 5 am |
| 5.2 |
| 6 am |
| 4.5 |
| 7 am |
| 3.6 |
| 8 am |
| 2.8 |
| 9 am |
| 1.9 |
| 10 am |
| 0.9 |
| 11 am |
| 0.4 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 2 pm |
| 3 |
| 3 pm |
| 3.7 |
| 4 pm |
| 4.2 |
| 5 pm |
| 4.2 |
| 6 pm |
| 3.7 |
| 7 pm |
| 2.8 |
| 8 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.4 |
Burlington, VT,
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