Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Caseville, MI
March 19, 2024 4:40 AM EDT (08:40 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:37 AM Sunset 7:48 PM Moonrise 1:04 PM Moonset 4:27 AM |
LHZ421 Outer Saginaw Bay Sw Of Alabaster To Port Austin Mi To Inner Saginaw Bay- 358 Am Edt Tue Mar 19 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through this afternoon - .
Today - Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy with a chance of light snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tonight - West winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the late evening and overnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight.
Wednesday - Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Gusts to 30 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Partly cloudy in the morning becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Wednesday night - Northwest winds to 30 knots diminishing to 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 5 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
see lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
see lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ400
No data
No data
Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 190755 AFDDTX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 355 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Reinforcing shot of arctic air for Wednesday and Thursday with scattered snow flurries.
- Increasing likelihood for accumulating snowfall for Southeast Michigan late Thursday night into Friday.
DISCUSSION
The next upper level jet packet and associated favorable left exit region dynamics will allow a deep cyclonic circulation to track from the northern Lake Superior shoreline today to far southwestern Quebec by Wednesday morning. For the early portion of today large scale forcing will be dominated by differential geopotential height rises off of the exiting trough; for the afternoon the upper level jet axis will push directly overhead. Positioning is such that Southeast Michigan will largely miss out of the cyclonic shear side of the jet as well as the ageostrophic circulation. The exception will be the Thumb where flurries will remain a possibility into the afternoon. The proximity of Southeast Michigan to the south of the passing low will yield warm advection. With some sunshine during the late afternoon temperatures are expected to rise into the 40s.
A strong cold front will push across Southeast Michigan by daybreak Wednesday. 850mb temperatures are forecasted to drop some 10 to 12 degrees C which will place the thermodynamic setup perilously close to ice nucleation zone. However, the main forecast narrative for Wednesday will be an extremely dry air mass despite some trajectories downwind of the Great Lakes. The forecast has a mention of flurries for Wednesday and that seems reasonable. Did lower high temperatures for Wednesday as readings should remain a couple of degrees of the freezing mark. The other notable aspect will be the breezy west northwest winds likely reaching and exceeding 30 mph.
Windchills will struggle to climb to 20 degrees Wednesday afternoon.
Surface high pressure is in store for Thursday as broadly anticyclonic flow trajectories build over the region. Loss of gradient wind will result in a more noticeable comfort to daytime conditions with highs in the 30s and windchills in the upper 20s.
A significant inflection/trough in the planetary vorticity reservoir will drive a wave of low pressure through the region on Friday. Main trends in the numerical weather prediction guidance have been a convergence of the operational ECMWF run towards the GFS solution which suggests greater phasing between shortwave energy tracking through the northern Plains and the shortwave tracking across the southern to mid Mississippi River Valley. D(prog)/dt has suggested greater amplification of both the northern and southern shortwaves.
The net result of the setup suggests the area of greatest lift associated with the northern wave will track directly through Lower Michigan Friday while the richest thetae content will be shunted ahead of the southern Mississippi wave and miss Southeast Michigan to the South. There are two big unknowns. 1. What portion of the elevated front will observe the greatest lift due to frontogenesis (current model data suggests invof of Saginaw Bay). 2. How long dry air will hold on and when exactly saturation will occur in the lowest 6.0 kft. The uncertainty with the low level dry air suggests it could vw problematic for how much precipitation falls across the southern forecast area. Model consensus suggests most of the precipitation will fall during the daytime Friday which also brings uncertainty to precipitation type as rain could mix in across Detroit. Too early for any expected snowfall amounts of the system but liquid equivalent of around 0.25 inch has been the consensus.
Models suggest a significant pattern change is possible for next weekend as very strong ridge amplification occurs over the eastern United States. Lower confidence with regards to sensible weather here in Southeast MIchigan exists as the edge of the blocking ridge builds very near Southeast Michigan. At this time, the timing of surface high pressure supports favorably dry conditions this weekend.
MARINE
Southwest flow is developing early this morning in response to an approaching clipper system. Winds quickly strengthen through the morning as the influence of overnight high pressure wanes resulting in rougher conditions in the Saginaw Bay and MI waters of Erie.
Small craft advisories remain in effect for these waters until this afternoon. Clipper drops through the region during the day today bringing additional rounds of snow showers. This system eventually tracks over the Northeast while deepening resulting in strengthening cold air advection into the central Great Lakes as an arctic airmass sinks south. Low-end NW gales still look possible daytime Wednesday over the northern portions of Lake Huron so have continued to run with a Gale Watch. Winds weaken into Thursday as the East Coast low slides into the Canadian maritimes.
PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 1141 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
AVIATION...
The low level flow will back toward the southwest tonight. This will drive a much drier low level airmass into Se Mi, which will scour out the lower strato cu deck prior to daybreak. This is also driving a lowering of the inversion base, resulting in inbound ceiling heights dropping to MVFR. Observations trends are supportive of carrying some MVFR based ceilings until the main push of drier low level air arrives. The southwest gradient will quickly increase during the morning. Model soundings indicate steepening low level lapse rates, aided by diurnal heating, with 25 to 30 knots winds within the mixed layer. This will support ample gustiness to the sfc winds during the daytime Tuesday. The sfc cold front is forecast to track across the area late Tues afternoon, leading to a veering of the winds to the west.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* Moderate in ceilings aob 5000 feet early this morning. Low today.
* Low in crosswind thresholds being exceeded Tuesday afternoon.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Gale Watch from late tonight through Wednesday evening for LHZ361>363.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LHZ421-422.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ444.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 355 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Reinforcing shot of arctic air for Wednesday and Thursday with scattered snow flurries.
- Increasing likelihood for accumulating snowfall for Southeast Michigan late Thursday night into Friday.
DISCUSSION
The next upper level jet packet and associated favorable left exit region dynamics will allow a deep cyclonic circulation to track from the northern Lake Superior shoreline today to far southwestern Quebec by Wednesday morning. For the early portion of today large scale forcing will be dominated by differential geopotential height rises off of the exiting trough; for the afternoon the upper level jet axis will push directly overhead. Positioning is such that Southeast Michigan will largely miss out of the cyclonic shear side of the jet as well as the ageostrophic circulation. The exception will be the Thumb where flurries will remain a possibility into the afternoon. The proximity of Southeast Michigan to the south of the passing low will yield warm advection. With some sunshine during the late afternoon temperatures are expected to rise into the 40s.
A strong cold front will push across Southeast Michigan by daybreak Wednesday. 850mb temperatures are forecasted to drop some 10 to 12 degrees C which will place the thermodynamic setup perilously close to ice nucleation zone. However, the main forecast narrative for Wednesday will be an extremely dry air mass despite some trajectories downwind of the Great Lakes. The forecast has a mention of flurries for Wednesday and that seems reasonable. Did lower high temperatures for Wednesday as readings should remain a couple of degrees of the freezing mark. The other notable aspect will be the breezy west northwest winds likely reaching and exceeding 30 mph.
Windchills will struggle to climb to 20 degrees Wednesday afternoon.
Surface high pressure is in store for Thursday as broadly anticyclonic flow trajectories build over the region. Loss of gradient wind will result in a more noticeable comfort to daytime conditions with highs in the 30s and windchills in the upper 20s.
A significant inflection/trough in the planetary vorticity reservoir will drive a wave of low pressure through the region on Friday. Main trends in the numerical weather prediction guidance have been a convergence of the operational ECMWF run towards the GFS solution which suggests greater phasing between shortwave energy tracking through the northern Plains and the shortwave tracking across the southern to mid Mississippi River Valley. D(prog)/dt has suggested greater amplification of both the northern and southern shortwaves.
The net result of the setup suggests the area of greatest lift associated with the northern wave will track directly through Lower Michigan Friday while the richest thetae content will be shunted ahead of the southern Mississippi wave and miss Southeast Michigan to the South. There are two big unknowns. 1. What portion of the elevated front will observe the greatest lift due to frontogenesis (current model data suggests invof of Saginaw Bay). 2. How long dry air will hold on and when exactly saturation will occur in the lowest 6.0 kft. The uncertainty with the low level dry air suggests it could vw problematic for how much precipitation falls across the southern forecast area. Model consensus suggests most of the precipitation will fall during the daytime Friday which also brings uncertainty to precipitation type as rain could mix in across Detroit. Too early for any expected snowfall amounts of the system but liquid equivalent of around 0.25 inch has been the consensus.
Models suggest a significant pattern change is possible for next weekend as very strong ridge amplification occurs over the eastern United States. Lower confidence with regards to sensible weather here in Southeast MIchigan exists as the edge of the blocking ridge builds very near Southeast Michigan. At this time, the timing of surface high pressure supports favorably dry conditions this weekend.
MARINE
Southwest flow is developing early this morning in response to an approaching clipper system. Winds quickly strengthen through the morning as the influence of overnight high pressure wanes resulting in rougher conditions in the Saginaw Bay and MI waters of Erie.
Small craft advisories remain in effect for these waters until this afternoon. Clipper drops through the region during the day today bringing additional rounds of snow showers. This system eventually tracks over the Northeast while deepening resulting in strengthening cold air advection into the central Great Lakes as an arctic airmass sinks south. Low-end NW gales still look possible daytime Wednesday over the northern portions of Lake Huron so have continued to run with a Gale Watch. Winds weaken into Thursday as the East Coast low slides into the Canadian maritimes.
PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 1141 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
AVIATION...
The low level flow will back toward the southwest tonight. This will drive a much drier low level airmass into Se Mi, which will scour out the lower strato cu deck prior to daybreak. This is also driving a lowering of the inversion base, resulting in inbound ceiling heights dropping to MVFR. Observations trends are supportive of carrying some MVFR based ceilings until the main push of drier low level air arrives. The southwest gradient will quickly increase during the morning. Model soundings indicate steepening low level lapse rates, aided by diurnal heating, with 25 to 30 knots winds within the mixed layer. This will support ample gustiness to the sfc winds during the daytime Tuesday. The sfc cold front is forecast to track across the area late Tues afternoon, leading to a veering of the winds to the west.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* Moderate in ceilings aob 5000 feet early this morning. Low today.
* Low in crosswind thresholds being exceeded Tuesday afternoon.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Gale Watch from late tonight through Wednesday evening for LHZ361>363.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LHZ421-422.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ444.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI | 19 mi | 61 min | SSW 27G | 31°F | 29.82 | |||
KP58 | 20 mi | 46 min | SW 9.9G | 29°F | 29.83 | 23°F | ||
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI | 21 mi | 61 min | SSW 12G | 31°F | 29.81 | |||
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI | 31 mi | 53 min | WSW 13G | 29°F | 43°F | 29.80 | 21°F | |
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI | 33 mi | 41 min | SW 24G | 31°F | 29.79 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KBAX HURON COUNTY MEMORIAL,MI | 20 sm | 25 min | SW 09G17 | 5 sm | Overcast | Lt Snow | 28°F | 19°F | 69% | 29.80 |
Detroit, MI,
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